Dr. Psych's preseason theory:
So I have a theory about surprise teams in the NFL. I think the surprise team usually comes from a pool of teams that gets little media coverage like Cincy last year. That means none of the popular favorites and no one with a high profile rookie. Just some veteran team flying under the radar. So this my list of contenders:
Miami: I haven't heard anything from them this Spring, but they have improving talent, made the play-offs two years ago and last year played tough with a difficult schedule.
NY Giants: You probably hear more about them than I do, but around here its all Cowboys (obviously), Eagles and Redskins. I still think the Giants draft well, are coached well, and have a legit QB.
Carolina: Haven't seen a single story about them, but they won their division two years ago, still have a good running game, are well coached, and they have to improve 2-3 games alone by dumping Jake Delhomme.
Chicago: Minny and Green Bay get all of the attention. But this is Cutler's second year in the system and the expectations are down. I am not that high on them because Mike Martz is there and installing a new offense, but it wouldn't surprise me if Chicago does well.
Jax: I don't know anything about them, but they have a decent QB and RB, so they could be tough if they could fix their line issues.
I am NOT buying: NY Jets, Cincy, Denver, Washington, Houston, San Diego
The Juice's Response:
I, of course, agree about there always being one or two surprise teams, and I like the ones you listed. My only major change would be dropping Carolina from your list. I think Clausen, who they marked as their QB of the future, actually kind of sucks, and they missed out on Steve Smith’s window as an elite receiver. I don’t really like Jax, either, because their division is so tough. Indy’s going to win it, and Houston has an awesome defense and can be explosive when Andre Johnson is getting open, and even Tennessee has an elite running game (though their D has lost some great talent – Vandenbosch was a beast for them).
I’d really like Chicago if GB and Min weren’t so good. I still think they could be a WC contender, but it will require a collapse by GB or Minny. The Giants also face a stiff division, and I think their D-line isn’t as awesome as it was two years ago. They have a chance, especially if the Redskins and Eagle fall on their faces (a distinct possibility).
That leaves my favorite from your list: Miami. I like Chad Henne, I like their creativity on offense, I like their coaching and management. I LOVE their division. Jets are hugely overrated, Pats have tons of issues (Brady is NOT happy with his contract, Moss is old, Welker is coming off knee surgery, and they’ve let their best defenders walk rather than pay them), and the Bills are a USFL team. They could easily go 4-2 (kill the Bills and split with Pats/Jets) or 5-1 (Jets or Pats collapse) in the division. They play a tough schedule outside their division (AFC & NFC North, let’s say 4-4), but their other two games are Raiders and Titans, both very winnable. They have a decent chance at 10 wins if they play up to their potential. I like ‘em. They’re getting +300 to win the AFC East right now, and +1300 to win the AFC overall (+3000 for SB win). I’d love to lay a hundred on them to win the division.
