Doctor Pscyh and the Juice are Back!

The good Doctor and the Juice have been busy relocating to the civilized place in the US to live (the Midwest). But now we are back with a new and improved format. Instead of picking every game against the line (which makes no real world sense). We are now picking and choosing our bets. This lets us pick bets we have more confidence and explain our thinking. We can even vary the amount we spend depending on how confident we feel. Hopefully this will keep us all on our toes and make use better bettors. As a bonus, anyone who wants to submit a bet is welcome to post and we will try to comment. Without further ado, here is our first post. The Juice's Futures bets with comments by Doctor Psych. The Good Doc has also made some Futures and those will be posted as soon as the Juice can add his thoughts. Up next week- Week 1 bets!  

The Juice’s Bets: 

Bet $5.00 to win $9.50 Giants to win NFC East Bet 
$5.00 to win $50.00 Giants to win NFC Championship Bet 
$5.00 to win $5.00 Giants to make playoffs

 I’m high on the Giants for all the reasons you might guess: 1) The rest of the division is overrated. Neither the Eagles nor the Cowboys have proven a damn thing. The Eagles have all kinds of off-field issues (starting with the sad death of Andy Reid’s son), their QB WILL get hurt (either a few small injuries, or one big season-ender early), and they are nowhere near as fast on defense as they were a few years ago. The Cowboys are old, the Dez Bryant rules are hilarious, and Tony Romo is still Tony Romo. I’m not going to discuss the Redskins and their non-existent offensive line. They’re fucked. 2) The Giants get to play the “No respect” card. They’re the superbowl champs, and nobody believes they’ll win the division! Think they might play a little pissed off? 3) The Jets take away all their media pressure (which, to be honest, I never thought was that big a deal to begin with). 4) Their greatest strengths (pressuring the QB on D and being balanced on O) match perfectly against their division opponents, and against the biggest threat in the NFC (the Packers). Only the 9ers really scare me as an opponent for the Giants (they run well and have a strong D). 5) I don’t think the fact that they won the whole thing last year hurts their chances this year. It’s gambler’s fallacy to think so. So, I can’t believe they could miss the playoffs (easy money at 1:1), like them to win the division (~2:1), and love getting 10:1 odds on them to win the Conference.

 DP’s Take: I think this is a good value play. The Giants are undervalued basically because people think they are too inconsistent to repeat as Superbowl champs. But this doesn’t mean that they aren’t a good regular season play. In fact the Giants best regular season recently was in the year after they won the Superbowl. The Giants two biggest strengths- great pass rush and unflappable QB- are also the two best assets to have in the playoffs. The bet basically shapes up like this: 1) Miss the playoffs- lose $15 2) Wild-card, but miss Superbowl- lose $5 3) Win NFC East- Win $9.50 ($9.5 + $5 -$5) 4) Go to Superbowl- Win $50 (if Wild-Card) or win $64.50 (if NFC East Champ) The only thing I would change is to double the ‘make the playoffs’ bet to $10. It increases your exposure to $20, but means you break even or make money in 3 out 4 scenarios.  

Bet $5.00 to win $32.50 Colts to place EXACTLY 2nd in AFC South
 I like this bet not so much because I think the Colts are good, as because I think Houston has the division locked up, and Jacksonville is terrible, which means I’m getting better than 6:1 odds on the Colts having a better record than the Titans. I like Munchak as the Titans’ coach and think their D might be improved, but they’re still screwed at QB and their O-line has declined. Both the Colts and Titans have the NFC North and AFC East in non-division play, but the Colts have winnable games at home vs Cle and @KC while the Titans have probable losses at home vs Pit and @SD in their extra games. That’s a two-game swing for the Colts, and that makes love this bet.

 DP’s Take: I like the reasoning a lot behind this. I agree completely on the logic and while I think the Titans will probably finish 2nd, I think the strength of schedule argument makes the 6:1 odds look reasonable. My only question is if you are so confident about Houston and Jax, why not take a bet where you predict the EXACT order of finish. You would decrease your odds slightly if Tenn were to tumble below Jax), but the payout would be MUCH higher.  

Bet $5.00 to win $6.75 Eagles to miss playoffs 
Bet $5.00 to win $8.00 Eagles to score under 415 pts in reg season

For many of the same reasons I like the Giants, I hate the Eagles this year. Or, at least, I don’t buy in nearly as much as the talking heads. I obviously like the Giants to win the NFC East, so I think the Eagles will need to get a WC to make the playoffs. I think the NFC North is loaded, and the Pack/Bears/Lions should claim at least one WC spot, if not both. If one of them isn’t that great, then the Eagles have to beat out the Cowboys/Bucs/Falcons/Saints/Panthers to take the other WC slot (obviously, I don’t think any of the non-49ers NFC West teams has a shot, nor do the Vikes/Skins). I can’t see the Eagles being consistent enough to do it. And one reason is that their offense will NOT put up 27 pts per game, like they did in 2010. Vick is slower, they’re less talented, and they’re more injury prone. They probably won’t even equal the 24.8 they put up last year. The 415 total yards in the second bet comes out to 25.94 pts per game, so I love the under bet.  

DP’s Take: There probably is value in betting against the Eagles as we noted before. I know the computer simulations LOVE the Eagles this year, but the computers can’t figure in the intangibles that the Juice noted. I am not in love with this bet, but I think it’s fairly sound.  

Bet $5.00 to win $20.00 Drew Brees to lead league in passing yds
This is actually a bet against the Saints. Because of coaching issues and offseason turmoil, and because they have a terrible pass defense (30th last year), I think they will play from behind most of the season. That means Brees will be racking up tons of pass attempts late in games. Three major threats to beat him out (Rodgers, Brady, and Eli Manning) should be sitting in week 17. The other two threats are Rivers and Stafford: Stafford is injury prone, and Rivers is depending on Antonio Gates returning to form, which I do not deem likely. Finally, two words: Jimmy Graham. I see another huge season from the big boy, and Brees will reap the benefits.  

DP’s Take: This bet piqued my interest quite a bit so I went to look up the odds. I agree that Drew Brees should be the odds on favorite even with Sean Peyton’s absence. If anything the Saints thin Defense will lead to lots of shot outs. Still Rodgers and Brady have two of the easiest schedules in the league (I don’t consider Eli a threat, before 2011 his previous best was 4021. I see Eli much more likely to regress to the mean). So the Doc placed his own counter bet: $5 on Brees (+400), $5 on Brady (+400), $5 on Rodgers (+500) and $5 on Stafford (+550). I might even hedge and put a little bit on Rivers just in case. In any event, I find it really hard to imagine any scenario where one of these 4 (or 5) don’t win the passing title. So the best basically has 4 possible outcomes: 1. Someone else wins the passing title- lost $20. 2. Brees or Brady win the passing title- win $5. 3. Rodgers wins the passing title- win $10. 4. Stafford wins the passing title- win $12.5. Basically is there a better than 1:4 chance one of these 4 doesn’t win the passing title? I really don’t think so.
  
Bet $5.00 to win $100.00 LaMichael James to win Offensive Rookie of the Year
Basically, this kid plays with a chip on his shoulder, is averaging 5 yards per carry in the preseason, and is one (highly probable) Frank Gore injury from seeing mucho playing time for a team that loves to run and is often playing with a lead. Also, I think I could rush for 1,200 yds in six games against the Seahawks, Rams, and Cards.  

DP’s Take: Sorry Juice, we are gonna have to disagree on this one. Its one thing to bet on a Frank Gore injury, but your real bet is that 5 rookie QBs and 1 rookie RB (Richardson) are all mediocre. Of course two of those rookies are Cleveland Browns, so I will just have to take your word that Weeden sucks and therefore teams will stack up against Richardson simultaneously killing the chances of both players. BUT, even at 20:1 I would bet against Luck, RG3, and Wilson all sucking. In fact I am SO CONFIDENT, that Luck or RG3 will win the ROY, I placed my own counter bet. $5 on Luck (+225) and $10 on RG3 (+400). So the three options are: 1. Neither guy wins- lose $15. 2. Luck wins- win $1.25. 3. RG3 wins- win $35. Basically I think RG3 wins this year. By all accounts he is totally professional, is pro-ready, has decent wide receivers, a better running game than Luck and a real LT. Even if the rest of his O-line is shaky, it still plays to his strength of getting outside the pocket. I can see a nice combination of runs setting up deep passes to Moss and Garcon. The Luck bet is essentially a hedge.  

Bet $5.00 to win $25.00 Tampa Bay to make playoffs
The Doc outlined a bunch of reasons to like TB this year. I agree with all of them. I think they have a shot at the division. Moreover, I don’t like anyone in the NFC West to steal a WC, and I think the NFC East is weak. So, unless the Bears and Lions both score a WC slot (assuming GB wins the North), there should be one slot up for grabs. I think the Bucs are a good bet to take it at 5:1 odds.  

DP’s Take: I feel bad about this one. The Juice already knew that I took TB +1400 to win the Division and instead made this pick for the sake of entertainment. I have to disagree with him on the wild-card front. I’m not as down on the NFC East and I think the NFC Central has a pretty easy schedule. I think winning the division is the Bucs best shot and I don’t think a shot at a WC justifies the drop from +1400 to +500. Sorry Man, if the Bucs win the Division, I’ll buy you a beer.