2011 Preseason Over/Under Picks

The Juice: We're back and we're bad.  Goodell finally lifted the suspension on our blog (The Doc illegally discharged his weapon in a crowded gentlemen's club and got us a six-month suspension).  Now that we've seen where the major free agents have landed, we're ready to debate the prospects for each team in the league.  Here are our quick thoughts on the current over/unders.  We disagree on 11 of the 32 teams, so it will be interesting to keep track of how those teams look in the preseason.  We'll be coming out with breakdowns of the divisions as the preseason gets going.  For now, ain't it great to be talking football again!?!?

AFC EAST

New York Jets: 10 (Under -120)

DP: Over. NFC East and AFC West alone are worth 6 to 7 wins plus Buffalo twice and Miami twice.

TJ: Over.  Even though they lost the Asomugha sweepstakes, it’s hard to bet against an excellent defense and a mediocre offense with a creampuff schedule.  Plaxico might even help the anemia!

New England Patriots: 11.5 (Under -120)

DP: Over. Same logic as above.

TJ: Over.  11.5 seems closer to me, but I’ll still go over, because I think the Pats made some nice moves in free agency – they stole Haynesworth, and Ochocinco and coach Belichick have a “special” relationship.

Buffalo Bills: 5 (Over -130, Under +110)

DP: Under. 5 seems about right for them, I think 6 seems like a bit of stretch.

TJ:  Let’s just say 3 wins seems much more likely than 7, so I’m going under.

Miami Dolphins: 8 (Over -105, Under -115)

DP: Under. A team based on running exchanges Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams for.... Reggie Bush. Unless they get Orten, I think they could be awful.

TJ: Under.  They ain’t getting Orten.  They’ll be awful. 

AFC NORTH

Pittsburgh Steelers: 11 (Under -120)

DP: Over. AFC South and NFC West are both down and give 6-7 wins alone plus Bengals twice and Browns twice.

TJ: Over.  Good schedule, and the offense is due for a bounceback, even if the defense is on it’s last legs.

Baltimore Ravens: 11

DP: Over. Same as above. Although I am not as confident and would put money on it.

TJ: Under.  This feels like a letdown year for the Ravens.  Ray Lewis is starting to remind me of Lawrence Taylor: not as a Giant, but as a Shark in that Al Pacino football movie.

Cleveland Browns: 6.5

DP: Under. I like this teams to get better as the season goes along, but unfortunately 4 out of last 5 against Pitt and Balt.

TJ: Over.  I say they take two from the NFC West, two from the AFC South, and three from everybody else.  Not far-fetched.

Cincinnati Bengals: 7.5 (Over -120)

DP: My bet of the year! UNDER, UNDER, UNDER!

TJ: I cannot go under hard enough here!  I’m with the Doc, I’d have gone under if the number was 3.5!

AFC SOUTH

Indianapolis Colts: 10 (Under -120)

DP: Under. I am down on the Colts and I don't like a schedule that includes Pitt, @Balt, @New Enlgand, Atlanta, @New Orleans, plus two up and comers- Kansas City and Tampa.

TJ: I want to push!  10 seems about right.  I’ll go over, just to be contrary to the Doc.

Houston Texans: 8 (Over -115, Under -105)

DP: Over?

TJ: Over.  Weak division, and I like the defense and running game to continue to improve.

Jacksonville Jaguars: 6

DP: Over?

TJ: Under.  This team will stink.  Can’t think of a single thing I like about them.

Tennessee Titans: 6.5 (Over -115, Under -105)

DP: Over? It seems like everyone in the AFC South will be 7-9 to 9-7.

TJ: Under.  Another team I like nothing about.  Hasselbeck will suck for them, they lost possibly their best defender to free agency (Babin), and the new coach (Munchak) does not inspire me.

AFC WEST

Denver Broncos: 6 (Under -120)

DP: Over. I like their recent drafts and they are getting some players back from injury. Add 1 or 2 wins for having a real coach.

TJ: Over.  I don’t like this team, but the number seems really low, and I’m leery of betting against Tebow.

San Diego Chargers: 10

DP: UNDER! Another one I would love to bet. I hate their drafts and their coach and think their free agents have no reason to play hard.

TJ: Under for all the same reasons, but I think they sneak into the playoffs at 9-7.

Oakland Raiders: 7

DP: UNDER! Another team that regresses

TJ: Under.  What’s to like about this team?  I keep waiting for the defense to show up, and they still don’t have a single QB I’d remotely trust.

Kansas City Chiefs: 8 (Under -120)

DP: Over. I think 8-8 or 9-7 is most likely.

TJ:  Over.  I’d like to push on this one, too, but division should give them 4-5 wins, and they’ve got Rams, Bills, Lions, Vikes, and Rams on the schedule.

NFC EAST

New York Giants: 9.5 (Over -105, Under -115)

DP: Under. I don't seem them getting to 10 wins.

TJ: Under.  I say this team implodes and goes 5-11.

Dallas Cowboys: 9 (Under -120)

DP: Over. AFC West plus games at home with Miami and Buffalo are worth 5-6 wins at least.

TJ: Over.  The ‘Boys are due to catch a few breaks.

Philadelphia Eagles: 10 (Over -120)

DP: Over. The Eagles are all in this year.

TJ:  Over.  On paper, they look like a 13-win team.  Vick better stay healthy, though.

Washington Redskins: 6.5 (Over -120)

DP: Under. I hate this team and think they will be one of the worst in the league.

TJ:  Under.  WAY under.  Could be 2-14.  Shanahan leaves in disgrace.

NFC NORTH

Green Bay Packers: 11.5

DP: Under. I would to take the over but I look at their schedule and see more than 4 games that make me nervous.

TJ: Over.  They’re the same team as last year (a good thing), and that defense is awesome.

Chicago Bears: 9.5

DP: UNDER. I hate the Bears and think they fall WAY back.

TJ: Under.  As in, underground.  As in, dead and buried.

Detroit Lions: 7.5 (Under -120)

DP: Under. I like Detroit, but am I convinced they don't have a losing record? No, not until Stafford plays an entire season.

TJ:  Over.  This is the year for them to make a great run, get Detroit super excited and raise expectations through the roof, then follow it up with 3-13 in 2012.

Minnesota Vikings: 6.5 (Over -120)

DP: Over. I like McNabb to steady the ship.

TJ: Under.  “Steady the ship?”  More like “ready to shit!”  McNabb will stink.

NFC SOUTH

New Orleans Saints: 10 (Over +105, Under -125)

DP: Under. Tough schedule (NFC North, Colts, Giants and Rams and their own NFC South games) plus they have not drafted well recently.

TJ: Under.  They’ve lost their Mojo.

Atlanta Falcons: 10.5 (Over -105, Under -115)

DP: Under. 9 or 10 wins seems about right with their schedule (NFC North, Colts, Eagles, and their own NFC South)

TJ: Over.  This team is made to win in the dome, and the division stinks.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 8.5

DP: Over. 9-7 or 10-6 feels about right. But I am not confident and would bet it.

TJ: Under.  They won a bunch of close ones last year, but that will even out.  They’re not a great team.

Carolina Panthers: 4.5

DP: Under. Their drafting has been terrible and free agency has consisted of over paying their same old players. Oh yeah and Cam Newton is in no way ready for the NFL.

TJ: Under.  They could legitimately go 0-fer.  Hell, they could set the record for fewest points scored in a 16-game season.

NFC WEST

Seattle Seahawks: 7 (Under -120)

DP: Under. Tavaris Jackson? Over paying Sidney Rice? Matt Leinart? Their moves baffle me.

TJ: Under.  Equally baffled.  With these players, what’s the long-term plan?  That win against NO in the playoffs was the biggest fluke ever.

St. Louis Rams: 7 (Over -120)

DP: Over. One of my surprise teams.

TJ:  Over.  Gotta be the favorites in the division.  That means at least 7 wins.  Right?

San Francisco 49ers: 8 (Over -120)

DP: Under. I can't see Harbaugh getting to 9 wins with their QBs.

TJ:  Under.  I want to disagree, but the QB situation is laughable, and Jimmy’s rah-rah coaching style won’t motivate professionals like it did Stanford kids.

Arizona Cardinals: 6 (Over -120)

DP: Over? Who the hell knows? AFC North and NFC East offer three weaklings (Bengals, Browns, Redskins), Carolina, Minny, plus 6 games against the 'Hawks, Rams, and 49ers. It feels like they should be able to get at least 6 wins out of that.

TJ: Under.  Unless Kolb turns out to be the real thing.  Seems like a longshot.

The Upshot:

DP: My bets would Redskins and Bengals heavy UNDER.

TJ: I like both of the Docs picks.  I’d add the Bears under and Eagles over, but the Redskins under is the best bet on the board.

Doctor P's Dilemma

So here is the deal as a 'Come Back For Football' bonus, my on-line bookmaker "Juan" offered me a one-time chance to make a bet and get all of my money back if I lose the bet. Not a bad deal. I think Juan looked at my success rate (about 10%, I'm not kidding) on NBA betting and realized that I am a person he has to keep around as long as possible.

Anyway, I have to pick out the week 1 game that I am gonna bet my whole account on. If I win I automatically start up 100%, if I lose I just start over. I think it will be fun to post the discussion on the blog and let readers vote. Here are the lines (games that interest me are BOLD):


NFL : Week 1

New Orleans Saints +4½ Points -115

Green Bay Packers -4½ Points -115

DP: Defending champs at home. Loads of continuity is important in a short pre-season. As I documented in my draft analysis, the Saints are getting a bit old and thin.

TJ: I also like the Pack. Should be an easy win for them. They seem like the type type of team that will deal with the lockout-shortened offseason really well.

Pittsburgh Steelers +2½ Points -110

Baltimore Ravens -2½ Points -120



Detroit Lions +3 Points -110

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3 Points -120


Atlanta Falcons -1 Points -115

Chicago Bears +1 Points -115

TJ: I like the Falcons to win in Chicago, even though they were a super “better at home” team in 2010. It’s not that I think Atlanta is that good (I think they’ll slide this year), it’s just that I think the Bears might really stink.


Buffalo Bills +6½ Points -115

Kansas City Chiefs -6½ Points -115



Indianapolis Colts +2 Points -115

Houston Texans -2 Points -115

DP: The Colts haven't gotten much press, but they are kind of a mess. Peyton Manning is coming off neck surgery and will take up >20% of their cap space. They've had to let a lot of free agents walk and the haven't drafted well recently. Houston easily handled the Colts at home last year and their defense has to be better with Wade Phillips.

TJ: As usual, you’re downplaying your own team, the Colts. They’re a good team, and even though Houston is capable of beating them, I say that’s far from a lock, much closer to 50:50. I wouldn’t bet that one.



Philadelphia Eagles -4 Points -115

St Louis Rams +4 Points -115



Cincinnati Bengals +3 Points -110

Cleveland Browns -3 Points -120

DP: As I wrote in the draft analysis, I like the Browns as a team on the rise. They have 10 1st or 2nd round picks in 2009-2011 drafts focusing on the lines and defense backs. I also like Colt McCoy his stats for 8 games look mediocre at first glance (1576 yards, 6 TD/9INT, rating 74.5), but 6 of the games were against play-off teams (Pitt X2, Bal, New England, New Orleans, Jets). 6 INTs came in two horrible losses to Pitt and Balt. I like his accuracy (60.8%) and I think the INTs come down. Meanwhile, the Bengals are like the Phoenix- periodically rising from the ashes only to catch fire and implode again. If Carson Palmer is out, that leaves poor rookie Andy Dalton to take over that mess with no OTAs and a short camp. Throw in all of the confusion with the Free Agents (Cedric Benson? Jonathon Joeseph?) and I think Cincy could be one of the three worst teams in the league.

TJ: I like that you like the Browns. I don’t think this is their year (division is too tough, and they still need to shore up the line on both sides), but the Bengals are a potential trainwreck. I see the Brownies getting a few early turnovers from whoever is sucking at QB for Cincy, then being able to pound away with Hillis. They should win by 10, maybe 14.

Tennessee Titans +2½ Points -110
Jacksonville Jaguars -2½ Points -120



New York Giants -3 Points -115

Washington Redskins +3 Points -115



Carolina Panthers +3½ Points -115
Arizona Cardinals -3½ Points -115



Seattle Seahawks +5½ Points -115

San Francisco 49ers -5½ Points -115


Minnesota Vikings +9½ Points -115

San Diego Chargers -9½ Points -115

DP: If I had to bet now it would be this game. I am assuming this line is so high because of QB uncertainty in Minny and will drop now that McNabb has been acquired. Minny is certainly a team on the slide, but they do have talent on defense and with McNabb, Peterson, and Percy Harvin on offense, I can see them scoring some points. Meanwhile, I think the Chargers are team in serious decline. Their drafting has not been good in recent years and their General Manager has seemed to piss off all of their veterans. They have a large number of free agents who they either have to: 1. let go and loss the depth or 2. sign to big deals (which makes me doubt their motivation to play hard). Oh yeah and Norv Turner is still their coach. I can't see the Chargers covering 9.5 even at home.

TJ: The Chargers/Minny line is nuts. I guess I agree you’d have to take advantage of that, but I really do hate Minny, and I don’t think the Chargers are completely washed up. It’s two shitty teams, really, so I guess you have to run with that 9 ½line.

Dallas Cowboys +4 Points -115

New York Jets -4 Points -115

TJ: I like the Jets to cover at home against the ‘Boys. The Cowboys could really stink this season, and Sexy Rexy is going to let slip the dogs of war on poor Romo. With the two best CBs in the league, he’ll be able to rush seven on every down. No way that Dallas line will be up to speed enough to handle that rush. This is probably my favorite bet.


New England Patriots -4 Points -115

Miami Dolphins +4 Points -115



Oakland Raiders pk Points -115

Denver Broncos pk Points -115

TJ: I also like Denver at home in the pick’em. They aren’t a great team, and won’t make the playoffs, but John Foxx should be able to coach them up to be better than Oakland, at least in Week 1. I like Tebow to throw for a TD and run for one in week one.

We're back baby!

Football is finally here and its too F'ing hot outside to do anything but sit by my computer and start doing some roster analysis.

The first thing I'm gonna start with is draft analysis. Not of 2011, because who the Hell knows how that will turn out. Instead I turn my attention to the 2008-2010 drafts. I make this basic assumption. NFL careers are short (average of 3 years) so the heart of your team should be comprised of first and second round draft picks who are in years 2-4 of their rookie deals. The past decade has shown us that the successful teams (New England, Pitt, Indy, Green Bay and to a lesser degree Baltimore and Philly) draft well, re-sign their own star players and use Free Agency sparingly. If you don't draft well, then you either have to overspend in Free Agency or waste future to shore up present day needs. So on to the analysis:

2010 - Arizona Cardinals
1 26 Dan Williams DT Tennessee
2 47 Daryl Washington ILB Texas Christian
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 31 Beanie Wells RB Ohio State
2 63 Cody Brown DE Connecticut
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 16 Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie CB Tennessee State
2 50 Calais Campbell DE Miami (Fla.)

2010 - Atlanta Falcons
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 19 Sean Weatherspoon OLB Missouri
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 24 Peria Jerry DT Mississippi
2 55 William Moore DB Missouri
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 3 Matt Ryan QB Boston College
1 21 Sam Baker T USC
2 37 Curtis Lofton MLB Oklahoma

2010 - Baltimore Ravens
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
2 43 Sergio Kindle LB Texas
2 57 Terrence Cody DE Alabama
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 23 Michael Oher T Mississippi
2 57 Paul Kruger DE Utah
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 18 Joe Flacco QB Delaware
2 55 Ray Rice RB Rutgers

2010 - Buffalo Bills
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 9 C.J. Spiller RB Clemson
2 41 Torell Troup DT Central Florida
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 11 Aaron Maybin DE Penn State
1 28 Eric Wood C Louisville
2 42 Jairus Byrd DB Oregon
2 51 Andy Levitre G Oregon State
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 11 Leodis McKelvin CB Troy
2 41 James Hardy WR Indiana

2010 - Carolina Panthers
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
2 48 Jimmy Clausen QB Notre Dame
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
2 43 Everette Brown DE Florida State
2 59 Sherrod Martin DB Troy
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 13 Jonathan Stewart RB Oregon
1 19 Jeff Otah T Pittsburgh

2010 - Chicago Bears
None
2009-
None
2008-
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 14 Chris Williams OT Vanderbilt
2 44 Matt Forte RB Tulane

2010 - Cincinnati Bengals
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 21 Jermaine Gresham TE Oklahoma
2 54 Carlos Dunlap DE Florida
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 6 Andre Smith T Alabama
2 38 Rey Maualuga LB USC
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 9 Keith Rivers OLB USC
2 46 Jerome Simpson WR Coastal Carolina

2010 - Cleveland Browns
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 7 Joe Haden CB Florida
2 38 T.J. Ward SS Oregon
2 59 Montario Hardesty RB Tennessee
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 21 Alex Mack C California
2 36 Brian Robiskie WR Ohio State
2 50 Mohamed Massaquoi WR Georgia
2 52 David Veikune DE Hawaii
2008- none

2010 - Dallas Cowboys
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 24 Dez Bryant WR Oklahoma State
2 55 Sean Lee LB Penn State
2009- none
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 22 Felix Jones RB Arkansas
1 25 Mike Jenkins CB South Florida
2 61 Martellus Bennett TE Texas A&M

2010 - Denver Broncos
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 22 Demaryius Thomas WR Georgia Tech
1 25 Tim Tebow QB Florida
2 45 Zane Beadles G Utah
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 12 Knowshon Moreno RB Georgia
1 18 Robert Ayers LB Tennessee
2 37 Alphonso Smith DB Wake Forest
2 48 Darcel McBath DB Texas Tech
2 64 Richard Quinn TE North Carolina
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 12 Ryan Clady T Boise State
2 42 Eddie Royal WR Virginia Tech

2010 - Detroit Lions
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 2 Ndamukong Suh DT Nebraska
1 30 Jahvid Best RB California
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 1 Matthew Stafford QB Georgia
1 20 Brandon Pettigrew TE Oklahoma State
2 33 Louis Delmas DB Western Michigan
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 17 Gosder Cherilus T Boston College
2 45 Jordon Dizon OLB Colorado

2010 - Green Bay Packers
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 23 Bryan Bulaga T Iowa
2 56 Mike Neal DE Purdue
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 9 B.J. Raji NT Boston College
1 26 Clay Matthews LB USC
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
2 36 Jordy Nelson WR Kansas State
2 56 Brian Brohm QB Louisville
2 60 Pat Lee CB Auburn

2010 - Houston Texans
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 20 Kareem Jackson CB Alabama
2 58 Ben Tate RB Auburn
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 15 Brian Cushing LB USC
2 46 Connor Barwin DE Cincinnati
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 26 Duane Brown T Virginia Tech

2010 - Indianapolis Colts
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 31 Jerry Hughes DE Texas Christian
2 63 Pat Angerer OLB Iowa
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 27 Donald Brown RB Connecticut
2 56 Fili Moala DT USC
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
2 59 Mike Pollak G Arizona State

2010 - Jacksonville Jaguars
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 10 Tyson Alualu DT California
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 8 Eugene Monroe T Virginia
2 39 Eben Britton T Arizona
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 8 Derrick Harvey DE Florida
2 52 Quentin Groves DE Auburn

2010 - Kansas City Chiefs
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 5 Eric Berry SS Tennessee
2 36 Dexter McCluster WR Mississippi
2 50 Javier Arenas DB Alabama
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 3 Tyson Jackson DE Louisiana State
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 5 Glenn Dorsey DT Louisiana State
1 15 Branden Albert T Virginia
2 35 Brandon Flowers CB Virginia Tech

2010 - Miami Dolphins
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 28 Jared Odrick DE Penn State
2 40 Koa Misi OLB Utah
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 25 Vontae Davis DB Illinois
2 44 Pat White QB West Virginia
2 61 Sean Smith DB Utah
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 1 Jake Long T Michigan
2 32 Phillip Merling DE Clemson
2 57 Chad Henne QB Michigan

2010 - Minnesota Vikings
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
2 34 Chris Cook CB Virginia
2 51 Toby Gerhart RB Stanford
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 22 Percy Harvin WR Florida
2 54 Phil Loadholt T Oklahoma
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
2 43 Tyrell Johnson FS Arkansas State

2010 - New England Patriots
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 27 Devin McCourty CB Rutgers
2 42 Rob Gronkowski TE Arizona
2 53 Jermaine Cunningham OLB Florida
2 62 Brandon Spikes ILB Florida
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
2 34 Pat Chung DB Oregon
2 40 Ron Brace DT Boston College
2 41 Darius Butler DB Connecticut
2 58 Sebastian Vollmer T Houston
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 10 Jerod Mayo ILB Tennessee
2 62 Terrence Wheatley CB Colorado

2010-New Orleans
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 32 Patrick Robinson CB Florida State
2 64 Charles Brown T USC
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 14 Malcolm Jenkins DB Ohio State
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 7 Sedrick Ellis DT USC
2 40 Tracy Porter CB Indiana

2010 - New York Giants
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 15 Jason Pierre-Paul DE South Florida
2 46 Linval Joseph DT East Carolina
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 29 Hakeem Nicks WR North Carolina
2 45 Clint Sintim LB Virginia
2 60 William Beatty T Connecticut
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 31 Kenny Phillips FS Miami (Fla.)
2 63 Terrell Thomas CB USC

2010- NY JETS
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 29 Kyle Wilson CB Boise State
2 61 Vladimir Ducasse T Massachusetts
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 5 Mark Sanchez QB USC
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 6 Vernon Gholston LB Ohio State
1 30 Dustin Keller TE Purdue

2010-Oakland
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 8 Rolando McClain MLB Alabama
2 44 Lamarr Houston DE Texas
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 7 Darrius Heyward-Bey WR Maryland
2 47 Mike Mitchell DB Ohio U.
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 4 Darren McFadden RB Arkansas

2010 - Philadelphia Eagles
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 13 Brandon Graham DE Michigan
2 37 Nate Allen FS South Florida
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 19 Jeremy Maclin WR Missouri
2 53 LeSean McCoy RB Pittsburgh
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
2 47 Trevor Laws DT Notre Dame
2 49 DeSean Jackson WR California

2010 - Pittsburgh Steelers
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 18 Maurkice Pouncey C Florida
2 52 Jason Worilds LB Virginia Tech
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 32 Ziggy Hood DT Missouri
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 23 Rashard Mendenhall RB Illinois
2 53 Limas Sweed WR Texas

2010 - San Diego Chargers
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 12 Ryan Mathews RB Fresno State
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 16 Larry English DE Northern Illinois
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 27 Antoine Cason CB Arizona

2010 - San Francisco 49ers
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 11 Anthony Davis T Rutgers
1 17 Mike Iupati G Idaho
2 49 Taylor Mays SS USC
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 10 Michael CrabtreeWR Texas Tech
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 29 Kentwan Balmer DE North Carolina
2 39 Chilo Rachal G USC

2010 - St. Louis Rams
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 1 Sam Bradford QB Oklahoma
2 33 Rodger Saffold T Indiana
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 2 Jason Smith T Baylor
2 35 James Laurinaitis LB Ohio State
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 2 Chris Long DE Virginia
2 33 Donnie Avery WR Houston

2010 - Tampa Bay Buccaneers
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 3 Gerald McCoy DT Oklahoma
2 35 Brian Price DT UCLA
2 39 Arrelious Benn WR Illinois
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 17 Josh Freeman QB Kansas State
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 20 Aqib Talib CB Kansas
2 58 Dexter Jackson WR Appalachian State

2010 - Tennessee Titans
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 16 Derrick Morgan DE Georgia Tech
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 30 Kenny Britt WR Rutgers
2 62 Sen'Derrick Marks DT Auburn
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 24 Chris Johnson RB East Carolina
2 54 Jason Jones DT Eastern Michigan

2010 - Washington Redskins
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 4 Trent Williams T Oklahoma
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 13 Brian Orakpo DE Texas
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
2 34 Devin Thomas WR Michigan State
2 48 Fred Davis TE USC
2 51 Malcolm Kelly WR Oklahoma

Analysis:

Good Drafters- Baltimore, Green Bay, Pitt, Philly, and New England (10 picks in 3 years!). Overall these teams know what they are doing and get good value. They frequently drop down into the second round and pick up cheap starters.

A lot of draft picks of unknown quality-
Buff- 8 picks but several high profile busts (CJ Spiller, Aaron Maybin, James Hardy)
Denver- 9 picks in 3 years, but Kewshon Moreno and Tim Tebow are the two highest profile and its not clear they will succeed.
Miami- 8 picks but 2 were dubious QBs (Pat White and Chad Henne)
NY GIants- 7 picks but they need to get more production out of Jason Pierre-Paul and Linval Joseph

The Future is Now! teams that might have mortaged the future
Atlanta- 3 picks in 2009 and 2010 and 2 are marginally productive, mortaged future on Julio Jones

Watch Out!- teams with multiple good picks at key positions
Browns- 7 picks plus that haul from the Atlanta trade
Lions- but need Matthew Stafford to stay healthy
Chiefs- 6 solid picks and even their 1 'bust' contributes
Rams- three good drafts have replaced depleted talent pool
Bucs- 6 picks with 1 bust in last 3 years, but the key is that have a good young QB

Thin- teams with few picks and multiple busts
Carolina- 5 picks with 2 busts. Plus no help in 2011 draft: Cam Newton (project) and no second rounder
Chicago- amazingly no 1st or 2nd round picks in 2009 or 2010. Only 2 players in 2008. You can thank Jay Cutler deal for lack of depth.
Cowboys- 5 picks with 1 bust in 3 years
Texans-5 picks with 2 busts
Colts- need production from former 1st rounders Donald Brown and Jerry Hughes
Jags- 5 picks with 2 busts, in 2011 drafted a QB in first round so no help there
Minny- Of the 5 picks only only one was 1st rounder (Percy Harvin), 1 back-up (Toby Gerhart) and 1 bust.
Saints- only 5 picks of dubious quality, plus traded future 1st rounder for Mark Ingram
Jets- lost a lot of picks in the Mark Sanchez deal, 5 players with 1 bust
Raiders- 5 picks with 2 busts, sounds about right for them
Chargers- only 3 1st or 2nd round picks in three drafts. 2 picks of marginal contribution
Titans- 5 picks with 2 busts plus drafted a project QB (Jake Locker) in first round in 2011
Redskins- no surprise here 5 picks with 3 busts

Who knows- San Fran, Cincy, Ariziona

So if you are looking for teams that are ready to fall off, I would look at the: Bears, Colts, Saints, and Chargers.

Good now, but have no depth: The Jets, Cowboys, and Falcons