We're back baby!

Football is finally here and its too F'ing hot outside to do anything but sit by my computer and start doing some roster analysis.

The first thing I'm gonna start with is draft analysis. Not of 2011, because who the Hell knows how that will turn out. Instead I turn my attention to the 2008-2010 drafts. I make this basic assumption. NFL careers are short (average of 3 years) so the heart of your team should be comprised of first and second round draft picks who are in years 2-4 of their rookie deals. The past decade has shown us that the successful teams (New England, Pitt, Indy, Green Bay and to a lesser degree Baltimore and Philly) draft well, re-sign their own star players and use Free Agency sparingly. If you don't draft well, then you either have to overspend in Free Agency or waste future to shore up present day needs. So on to the analysis:

2010 - Arizona Cardinals
1 26 Dan Williams DT Tennessee
2 47 Daryl Washington ILB Texas Christian
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 31 Beanie Wells RB Ohio State
2 63 Cody Brown DE Connecticut
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 16 Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie CB Tennessee State
2 50 Calais Campbell DE Miami (Fla.)

2010 - Atlanta Falcons
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 19 Sean Weatherspoon OLB Missouri
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 24 Peria Jerry DT Mississippi
2 55 William Moore DB Missouri
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 3 Matt Ryan QB Boston College
1 21 Sam Baker T USC
2 37 Curtis Lofton MLB Oklahoma

2010 - Baltimore Ravens
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
2 43 Sergio Kindle LB Texas
2 57 Terrence Cody DE Alabama
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 23 Michael Oher T Mississippi
2 57 Paul Kruger DE Utah
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 18 Joe Flacco QB Delaware
2 55 Ray Rice RB Rutgers

2010 - Buffalo Bills
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 9 C.J. Spiller RB Clemson
2 41 Torell Troup DT Central Florida
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 11 Aaron Maybin DE Penn State
1 28 Eric Wood C Louisville
2 42 Jairus Byrd DB Oregon
2 51 Andy Levitre G Oregon State
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 11 Leodis McKelvin CB Troy
2 41 James Hardy WR Indiana

2010 - Carolina Panthers
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
2 48 Jimmy Clausen QB Notre Dame
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
2 43 Everette Brown DE Florida State
2 59 Sherrod Martin DB Troy
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 13 Jonathan Stewart RB Oregon
1 19 Jeff Otah T Pittsburgh

2010 - Chicago Bears
None
2009-
None
2008-
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 14 Chris Williams OT Vanderbilt
2 44 Matt Forte RB Tulane

2010 - Cincinnati Bengals
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 21 Jermaine Gresham TE Oklahoma
2 54 Carlos Dunlap DE Florida
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 6 Andre Smith T Alabama
2 38 Rey Maualuga LB USC
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 9 Keith Rivers OLB USC
2 46 Jerome Simpson WR Coastal Carolina

2010 - Cleveland Browns
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 7 Joe Haden CB Florida
2 38 T.J. Ward SS Oregon
2 59 Montario Hardesty RB Tennessee
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 21 Alex Mack C California
2 36 Brian Robiskie WR Ohio State
2 50 Mohamed Massaquoi WR Georgia
2 52 David Veikune DE Hawaii
2008- none

2010 - Dallas Cowboys
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 24 Dez Bryant WR Oklahoma State
2 55 Sean Lee LB Penn State
2009- none
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 22 Felix Jones RB Arkansas
1 25 Mike Jenkins CB South Florida
2 61 Martellus Bennett TE Texas A&M

2010 - Denver Broncos
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 22 Demaryius Thomas WR Georgia Tech
1 25 Tim Tebow QB Florida
2 45 Zane Beadles G Utah
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 12 Knowshon Moreno RB Georgia
1 18 Robert Ayers LB Tennessee
2 37 Alphonso Smith DB Wake Forest
2 48 Darcel McBath DB Texas Tech
2 64 Richard Quinn TE North Carolina
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 12 Ryan Clady T Boise State
2 42 Eddie Royal WR Virginia Tech

2010 - Detroit Lions
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 2 Ndamukong Suh DT Nebraska
1 30 Jahvid Best RB California
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 1 Matthew Stafford QB Georgia
1 20 Brandon Pettigrew TE Oklahoma State
2 33 Louis Delmas DB Western Michigan
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 17 Gosder Cherilus T Boston College
2 45 Jordon Dizon OLB Colorado

2010 - Green Bay Packers
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 23 Bryan Bulaga T Iowa
2 56 Mike Neal DE Purdue
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 9 B.J. Raji NT Boston College
1 26 Clay Matthews LB USC
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
2 36 Jordy Nelson WR Kansas State
2 56 Brian Brohm QB Louisville
2 60 Pat Lee CB Auburn

2010 - Houston Texans
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 20 Kareem Jackson CB Alabama
2 58 Ben Tate RB Auburn
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 15 Brian Cushing LB USC
2 46 Connor Barwin DE Cincinnati
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 26 Duane Brown T Virginia Tech

2010 - Indianapolis Colts
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 31 Jerry Hughes DE Texas Christian
2 63 Pat Angerer OLB Iowa
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 27 Donald Brown RB Connecticut
2 56 Fili Moala DT USC
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
2 59 Mike Pollak G Arizona State

2010 - Jacksonville Jaguars
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 10 Tyson Alualu DT California
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 8 Eugene Monroe T Virginia
2 39 Eben Britton T Arizona
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 8 Derrick Harvey DE Florida
2 52 Quentin Groves DE Auburn

2010 - Kansas City Chiefs
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 5 Eric Berry SS Tennessee
2 36 Dexter McCluster WR Mississippi
2 50 Javier Arenas DB Alabama
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 3 Tyson Jackson DE Louisiana State
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 5 Glenn Dorsey DT Louisiana State
1 15 Branden Albert T Virginia
2 35 Brandon Flowers CB Virginia Tech

2010 - Miami Dolphins
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 28 Jared Odrick DE Penn State
2 40 Koa Misi OLB Utah
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 25 Vontae Davis DB Illinois
2 44 Pat White QB West Virginia
2 61 Sean Smith DB Utah
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 1 Jake Long T Michigan
2 32 Phillip Merling DE Clemson
2 57 Chad Henne QB Michigan

2010 - Minnesota Vikings
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
2 34 Chris Cook CB Virginia
2 51 Toby Gerhart RB Stanford
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 22 Percy Harvin WR Florida
2 54 Phil Loadholt T Oklahoma
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
2 43 Tyrell Johnson FS Arkansas State

2010 - New England Patriots
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 27 Devin McCourty CB Rutgers
2 42 Rob Gronkowski TE Arizona
2 53 Jermaine Cunningham OLB Florida
2 62 Brandon Spikes ILB Florida
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
2 34 Pat Chung DB Oregon
2 40 Ron Brace DT Boston College
2 41 Darius Butler DB Connecticut
2 58 Sebastian Vollmer T Houston
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 10 Jerod Mayo ILB Tennessee
2 62 Terrence Wheatley CB Colorado

2010-New Orleans
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 32 Patrick Robinson CB Florida State
2 64 Charles Brown T USC
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 14 Malcolm Jenkins DB Ohio State
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 7 Sedrick Ellis DT USC
2 40 Tracy Porter CB Indiana

2010 - New York Giants
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 15 Jason Pierre-Paul DE South Florida
2 46 Linval Joseph DT East Carolina
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 29 Hakeem Nicks WR North Carolina
2 45 Clint Sintim LB Virginia
2 60 William Beatty T Connecticut
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 31 Kenny Phillips FS Miami (Fla.)
2 63 Terrell Thomas CB USC

2010- NY JETS
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 29 Kyle Wilson CB Boise State
2 61 Vladimir Ducasse T Massachusetts
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 5 Mark Sanchez QB USC
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 6 Vernon Gholston LB Ohio State
1 30 Dustin Keller TE Purdue

2010-Oakland
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 8 Rolando McClain MLB Alabama
2 44 Lamarr Houston DE Texas
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 7 Darrius Heyward-Bey WR Maryland
2 47 Mike Mitchell DB Ohio U.
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 4 Darren McFadden RB Arkansas

2010 - Philadelphia Eagles
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 13 Brandon Graham DE Michigan
2 37 Nate Allen FS South Florida
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 19 Jeremy Maclin WR Missouri
2 53 LeSean McCoy RB Pittsburgh
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
2 47 Trevor Laws DT Notre Dame
2 49 DeSean Jackson WR California

2010 - Pittsburgh Steelers
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 18 Maurkice Pouncey C Florida
2 52 Jason Worilds LB Virginia Tech
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 32 Ziggy Hood DT Missouri
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 23 Rashard Mendenhall RB Illinois
2 53 Limas Sweed WR Texas

2010 - San Diego Chargers
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 12 Ryan Mathews RB Fresno State
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 16 Larry English DE Northern Illinois
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 27 Antoine Cason CB Arizona

2010 - San Francisco 49ers
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 11 Anthony Davis T Rutgers
1 17 Mike Iupati G Idaho
2 49 Taylor Mays SS USC
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 10 Michael CrabtreeWR Texas Tech
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 29 Kentwan Balmer DE North Carolina
2 39 Chilo Rachal G USC

2010 - St. Louis Rams
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 1 Sam Bradford QB Oklahoma
2 33 Rodger Saffold T Indiana
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 2 Jason Smith T Baylor
2 35 James Laurinaitis LB Ohio State
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 2 Chris Long DE Virginia
2 33 Donnie Avery WR Houston

2010 - Tampa Bay Buccaneers
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 3 Gerald McCoy DT Oklahoma
2 35 Brian Price DT UCLA
2 39 Arrelious Benn WR Illinois
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 17 Josh Freeman QB Kansas State
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 20 Aqib Talib CB Kansas
2 58 Dexter Jackson WR Appalachian State

2010 - Tennessee Titans
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 16 Derrick Morgan DE Georgia Tech
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 30 Kenny Britt WR Rutgers
2 62 Sen'Derrick Marks DT Auburn
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 24 Chris Johnson RB East Carolina
2 54 Jason Jones DT Eastern Michigan

2010 - Washington Redskins
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 4 Trent Williams T Oklahoma
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 13 Brian Orakpo DE Texas
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
2 34 Devin Thomas WR Michigan State
2 48 Fred Davis TE USC
2 51 Malcolm Kelly WR Oklahoma

Analysis:

Good Drafters- Baltimore, Green Bay, Pitt, Philly, and New England (10 picks in 3 years!). Overall these teams know what they are doing and get good value. They frequently drop down into the second round and pick up cheap starters.

A lot of draft picks of unknown quality-
Buff- 8 picks but several high profile busts (CJ Spiller, Aaron Maybin, James Hardy)
Denver- 9 picks in 3 years, but Kewshon Moreno and Tim Tebow are the two highest profile and its not clear they will succeed.
Miami- 8 picks but 2 were dubious QBs (Pat White and Chad Henne)
NY GIants- 7 picks but they need to get more production out of Jason Pierre-Paul and Linval Joseph

The Future is Now! teams that might have mortaged the future
Atlanta- 3 picks in 2009 and 2010 and 2 are marginally productive, mortaged future on Julio Jones

Watch Out!- teams with multiple good picks at key positions
Browns- 7 picks plus that haul from the Atlanta trade
Lions- but need Matthew Stafford to stay healthy
Chiefs- 6 solid picks and even their 1 'bust' contributes
Rams- three good drafts have replaced depleted talent pool
Bucs- 6 picks with 1 bust in last 3 years, but the key is that have a good young QB

Thin- teams with few picks and multiple busts
Carolina- 5 picks with 2 busts. Plus no help in 2011 draft: Cam Newton (project) and no second rounder
Chicago- amazingly no 1st or 2nd round picks in 2009 or 2010. Only 2 players in 2008. You can thank Jay Cutler deal for lack of depth.
Cowboys- 5 picks with 1 bust in 3 years
Texans-5 picks with 2 busts
Colts- need production from former 1st rounders Donald Brown and Jerry Hughes
Jags- 5 picks with 2 busts, in 2011 drafted a QB in first round so no help there
Minny- Of the 5 picks only only one was 1st rounder (Percy Harvin), 1 back-up (Toby Gerhart) and 1 bust.
Saints- only 5 picks of dubious quality, plus traded future 1st rounder for Mark Ingram
Jets- lost a lot of picks in the Mark Sanchez deal, 5 players with 1 bust
Raiders- 5 picks with 2 busts, sounds about right for them
Chargers- only 3 1st or 2nd round picks in three drafts. 2 picks of marginal contribution
Titans- 5 picks with 2 busts plus drafted a project QB (Jake Locker) in first round in 2011
Redskins- no surprise here 5 picks with 3 busts

Who knows- San Fran, Cincy, Ariziona

So if you are looking for teams that are ready to fall off, I would look at the: Bears, Colts, Saints, and Chargers.

Good now, but have no depth: The Jets, Cowboys, and Falcons