Conference Championship Picks

Green Bay -3.5 @Chicago-

DP: The Juice and I played ‘guess the opening line’ Sunday evening by text. I guessed Bears -2.5. My feeling was that this was a pretty even match-up. The two teams split in the regular and the Packers had to struggle to pull out the home win on Week 17 after the Bears rested their starters. I also thought the weather would probably be crappy which would slow down the Packers. I gave the Bears the 3 points for homefield advantage then knocked it down to 2.5 because I figured the public liked the Packers in general and how Aaron Rodgers was playing. The Juice thought I was nuts, called the game a pick’em and said he would jump all over the Packers if the Bears were giving 2.5 points. I guess we were both wrong (although I was WAY off). Rarely do I miss a play-off line by 5 points, so I have really under estimated the Packer love (or the Bear hate as the case may be). I will happily take the Bears at -3.5. These two teams know each other well so I think it comes down to players and not coaching. The Bears pass defense is OK, they were 20^th overall and 16^th in sacks, but they were second best in giving up touchdowns (only 14 all year). So while you can get yards in the middle of the field, they are good at holding you to FGs. The Bears rush defense was second in the league (fun fact the top three rush defenses are still left: Pitt, Chicago, and NY Jets). The Packers don’t run the ball that well  (24^th in the league at 3.8 yards per carry) and I think if the weather gets bad it will help to have some pass/run balance. Lastly, I think field goal kicking may be important and I’ll take Robbie Gould narrowly over Mason Crosby. Could Aaron Rodgers light it up? Sure. Could the Bears give up 6 sacks and 3 INTs? Sure. But I think it will be close and low scoring. Bears 17-16 over the Packers.  Pick: Bears.

TJ: I was in earnest when I told the Doc he was nuts for thinking the Bears would be favored.  Listen, the Seaskanks may have edged the Saints, but they’re still the Seaskanks.  The Bears get no credit for that win in my book.  I don’t like Cutler as a QB, and I hate him as a leader.  I think if this is a close game like the Doc is guessing, he’ll find a way to blow it, maybe with a TAINT.  Unless the Bears get ahead early (perhaps with a Devin Hester return TD) and can rely on the run the entire second half, I definitely think they’ll blow it.  If this line were 2.5, I’d feel really confident.  At 3.5, a FG won’t do it, so I’m a little shaky, but I’m still going to take the Packers.

@Pittsburgh -3.5 vs. NY Jets-

DP: This is another game that I think the Juice and I will disagree on (which is good since I am now down 2 games to him in post season pick’em). At first look you would say that the Steelers are the more experienced team playing at home. You might also think that the Jets two big weaknesses are Sanchez against the blitz (advantage Steelers) and giving up touchdowns on the blitz (advantage Steelers). But when I watched the two games, I thought the Jets played great and the Steelers got really lucky. The Steelers will bring a better blitz than the Pats did, but the Jets have nice balance on offense and now that the running game is emerging, they don’t have to ask as much of Sanchez. On the other side, the Steeler’s offensive line is in tatters and I think that will give the Jets a lot of options on defense. This one should also be close and low scoring and in those types of games you just can’t expect a team to win by more than 3 points. Pick: Jets

TJ: I’m going to surprise the Doc a bit here.  When I saw this line, I felt exactly as he described when he said “At first look . . .”  However, the Doc is right, at least in part.  Look, the Pats played a bad game and all, but let’s not forget that they were the best team in the league and the Jets handed them their asses on their own field!  That can’t be discounted, and they have to be taken seriously in this game.  Some counter-arguments to a Jets pick:

1) The Jets run game looks solid, and they can definitely pressure the QB.  However, the Steelers are terrific against the run, and though they have a battered O-line, Big Ben is pretty good under pressure and hard to bring down. 

2) The Jets haven’t had to ask Sanchez to do much because they were able to run well against the Pats and Colts.  But . . . Pittsburgh held Baltimore to 35 rushing yards last week, and they have the #1 rushing defense in the league.  Sanchez will simply have to do more this week.  Pittsburgh will dare him to throw, and I don’t trust him to consistently generate passing offense.

3) The Jets have been great on the road in the playoffs!  But . . . since 1972 the Steelers are 32-18 in the playoffs, and since 2002 they’re 5-2 in home playoff games.

Look, the Jets have been great, but do we really think they have enough left in the tank to win this game?  I don’t think so. But can they keep the loss down to a FG or less?  Now that’s a tough question. Polamalu just hasn’t been himself lately, and I can’t expect him cause the same level of havoc and turnovers he’s caused in the past.  I gotta agree with the Doc: this one will be too low scoring to give up 3.5 points. Pick: Jets.