Pitt vs Balt-
DP: The fact that this game was close and hard-hitting covered up for the fact that it wasn't really that well played. Pittsburgh is a veteran team that plays well under pressure, but look at the facts. Their offensive line is bad, they had a bad day running the ball (71 yards total 2.3 yards/run), and probably should have been blown out if Baltimore didn't have so many turnovers in the second half to give them a short field. The best thing you can say about Pitt is that they made big plays when it counted. That is the complete opposite of Baltimore. They had a big lead but continued to make crappy plays whenever it counted. I went out for Indian food at half time and remember thinking that Baltimore would have to have several turnovers to lose and that was the case. It’s hard to really describe how bad Baltimore's offense was. 12 first downs, 126 total yards, 3.0 yards per pass, 1.9 yards per rush. Even then they could have probably just punted the ball away and made Pitt work the length of the field. I realize there were a lot of dropped passes (most famously by Boldin in the end zone and TJ H on 4th down), but the pass by Flacco into double coverage was unforgivable. Throw in some penalties (including the punt return for a TD called back on holding) and giving up the 3rd and 19 play and it was a day of big mistakes by the Ravens. One last thing. Was the goal line showdown at the end of the 4th quarter one of the greatest moments in gambling history? Tie game with a 3 point spread. If Baltimore could hold Pitt to a FG then it would be a draw, TD would mean a Pitt cover. Well you know the rest. Everyone who picked the Ravens went from sure cover to hoping for a draw to just disaster. Pitt is the favorite at home, but they are not playing well. I think the Jets give them a lot of trouble.
TJ: I was obviously surprised when Baltimore jumped out to such a huge lead, but because of my impression of Flacco, this game never really seemed out of reach. Flacco and the overrated free agent receivers the Ravens surrounded him with blew the game, but the rest of the team is far from blameless. The offensive line and Ray Rice could have won this game in the second half if they could have picked up a few first downs on the ground and run that clock down a bit. The defense needed a couple of key stops (especially that infamous 3rd and 19) to put the game away. Nobody stepped up. On Pittsburgh’s side, the Doc is right: they didn’t play all that well in any facet of the game in the first half, and they weren’t stellar in the second half either. However, they kept their cool, made plays when they needed to, and took advantage of the Ravens’ mistakes without losing their cool. In short, they looked like professionals. The Jets are no joke, obviously, but if Pittsburgh can play a little better next week and pressure Sanchez the way the Pats failed to do, they should still be the favorite to make the Superbowl.
Green Bay over Atlanta-
DP: On paper Atlanta looked like the better team, but sometimes you just know that a team won't rise to the occasion. I've had that feeling about the Dirty Birds for a while now. Steady but unspectacular during the ready season and no extra gear for the playoffs. They completely melted under the pressure of the national spotlight (I guess they call should call him Matty puddle of water). Everyone has now jumped firmly on the Packer bandwagon, they are a road favorite next week at the Bears. It should be a great game and I'll be happy to have either fan base migrate to our fair city for the Superbowl.
TJ: I hate Colin Cowherd. That dude may be the biggest douchebag on the planet. But he made one good point on his radio show Monday morning: the entire divisional round was won by the team with the better defense. This game illustrates that point as well as any. Everyone loves Aaron Rodgers and thinks he played an amazing game, and they’re right. But the Packers won because the Atlanta offense couldn’t begin to move the ball. Atlanta was 3-10 on third down conversions and rushed for a total of 45 yards while turning the ball over four times. Their kick return TD was the only thing that kept this from being an epic loss. I love what Dom Capers has done with this Green Bay defense, using the zone blitz and disguising coverages as well as anybody in the league. Although Aaron Rodgers won’t have quite the same kind of field day outdoors against the Bears defense next week, I expect the Packers’ D to be all over Cutler and that fragile Bears offense.
Chicago over Seattle-
DP: I feel I know less about this Bears team than any other #2 seed that is hosting the NFC title game. Seriously, I have no feel for this team. Even after their playoff win, I still don't know what to think about them. They have been maligned since the beginning of the season but here they are one game from the Superbowl. Let's look at the resume: 11-5 regular season record. Quality wins over Green Bay, @Miami (of course is that quality?), Philly, and Jets. Bad losses to @Giants, Redskins, Seaskanks, and Pats. Close game with the Packers in which the Bears pulled their starters in the second half. I can't even make up my mind about the coaches and QB. Lovie Smith? Mike Martz? Jay Cutler? Are these guys good or not? I really have no idea. Flashes of brilliance followed by inconsistency. I could see two outcomes for the game: 1. The Bears pressure Rodgers all day with their front 7 and win a close game. 2. They completely collapse and the Packers blow them out. It’s hard for me to imagine any other scenario. Either way it should be fun.
TJ: The Skanks offense came back down to earth, which I think probably says more about the Saints defense than the Bears defense. Chicago is a scrappy team with a good defense, and they can play well when Cutler isn’t pressured into picks and sack-fumbles. Unfortunately, that’s exactly what the Packers are best at, and I expect the Bears to look like a different team in the NFC Championship Game. Unless their defense can get them multiple turnovers and they get a special teams score out of Hester, I just don’t think they have the weapons to beat the Pack.
Jets over the Pats-
DP: I had forgotten how much I hated the Pats until it was 14-11 and it looked like they might come back. I was pretty resigned to the fact that the Pats would likely win the Superbowl and had come to peace with it. Then the Jets swooped in and kicked their asses and it made my day. I actually find the Jets kind of grating as well, but they are colorful and I can't ever get enough foot fetish jokes. I could go over the details of the game at length, but why bother? This game is sure to be dissected all week. It’s funny how fickle the popular press is. Last year before the Superbowl, Manning was about to be crowned the Greatest of All Time, now he has a losing record in the playoffs and everyone is dogging him. Same thing this year with Brady. He was on his way to a 4th Superbowl and the Greatest of All Time and now he has lost 3 straight playoff games and has not won a Superbowl in 7 years without that killer defense. I am an on-the-record Manning fan and I have a much more realistic view of both Manning and Brady. Manning is a great regular season QB, hard working and one of the smartest guys to ever play the position. Great leader and does a lot of charity work. Decent sense of humor, over exposed in commercials. One big weakness is that he gets tight in playoff games and is prone to making mistakes. Has fulfilled about 95-98% of his potential. Could easily have 0 Superbowls or 3, All of this being said, should it diminish my enjoyment of following his career at all? No. The Colts were mostly terrible before him, watching football has been a complete joy since then. As for Brady, he is another great regular season QB. Smart, really accurate. Good leader, but not a great off the field guy. Plays well under pressure, but probably not ahead of Elway or Montana. Can't win a Superbowl without a great defense. The funny thing is that they both will have a similar legacy- they both really benefitted from rule changes that freed up the passing game and both managed to maintain long term team excellence in the era of free agency when personnel changed rapidly.
TJ: I don’t care what anybody says, I still don’t like this Jets team! Much like Atlanta with Rodgers, New England’s defense just couldn’t put any pressure on Sanchez, and if you give anybody 6 seconds untouched in the pocket, they’re eventually going to find an open man. Pittsburgh will not give Sanchez nearly that kind of time. On the other side of the ball, I just plain underestimated the Jets secondary. I thought Revis and Cromartie were great deep cover guys, but I didn’t think they could handle the quick slants, and I still haven’t figured out how the Jets neutralized the Pats’ tight ends. Once that happened, though, the Patriots’ lack of a running game became glaringly obvious, and they were just shit out of luck. Although Pittsburgh has a bit more power on offense, their line isn’t terrific, and I’m not sure they can run the ball at will on this Jets team. It’s the Pittsburgh defense that will decide that game, and I think they’re more than good enough to win it.
Bottom Line:
DP: I am now super pumped about the Conference finals. I think all 4 teams probably think they have a good chance of winning it all. I also think any of the 4 match-ups would be fun to watch in the Superbowl.
TJ: I disagree with the Doc. I don’t think anything is exciting about the Bears and will be uninspired if they make the Superbowl. The Jets are more annoying than interesting, and I’m not sure I can handle two straight weeks of their nonsense leading up to the big game. No, I’m definitely rooting for a Pittsburgh/Green Bay championship game, and I don’t think I’m the only one.
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