Week 17 was a weird hodge-podge of games like usual. Instead of going through all the games, we’re just gonna break down a few major highlights:
1. Teams that just took care of business.
DP: I think this is a good predictor of success in the play-offs. Several teams with positioning on the line came in and just smacked around bad teams. This includes Atlanta, Pittsburgh, Baltimore (not a smack down, but they won anyway), and New Enlgand (even though they had nothing to play for). I would probably list these 4 as my favorites for the Superbowl (sucks for New Enlgand, because they could get Balt then Pitt). They seem by far the most consistent teams through the year all the way through week 17. You could argue for including the Jets on this list as well since they beat Buffalo pretty bad. I don't like the Jets as much though, and I am not sure they can win three straight road games to make it to the Superbowl. The match-up with Indy is interesting since they live by the Blitz and Manning is not a great match-up for them.
TJ: I agree with the Doc’s list. Let’s look at each of those teams:
Pittsburgh absolutely rolled over my poor Brownies. I knew the Steelers would shut down the Cleveland running game, but Peyton Hillis had only 6 carries for 13 yards. Combined with Polamalu’s interception to start the game, there was just no shot for the Browns. Pittsburgh’s defense is scary. If Rothlisburger can avoid injury by getting rid of the ball when he’s pressured, Pitt will be the Patriot’s only real threat (and Big Ben will be pressured with that weak O-line).
The Falcons won just as impressively, completely shutting down the Panthers. They held the starting RB (Stewart) to 13 rushes for 31 yards, and racked up 3 sacks and 8 tackles for loss. Carolina stinks, but Atlanta still gets credit for dominating from whistle to whistle.
The Pats manhandled the ‘Phins, pitching a shutout for 58 minutes. I think they were smart to keep the foot on the gas and not lose their rhythm.
The Ravens’ Defense did what they needed to do and are in playoff form. However, their offense still leaves a lot to be desired, especially considering the big name WR’s they picked up in the offseason. Cincy’s opponent’s averaged an 85.2 passer rating and 4.4 yards per rush during the season, but Flacco graded out at 69.0 and Rice had only 3.9 yards per carry. Baltimore’s not going to face any easier defenses in the playoffs, so their D had better generate some turnovers and points of their own. I don’t like their chances against Pitt or New England.
I’ll also mention the Jets, but I agree with the Doc: they’re not in the same class as these other four teams. They did beat the hell out of Buffalo, though, and there were some real positives: Brunell spit out the tapioca, dropped his cane, and played like it was 1996. This is a huge positive for a team whose starting QB is so inconsistent and has injury woes. Their running game and defense also looked excellent, though Buffalo will do that for you. This game was significant enough to make the Colts nervous, but probably not scared.
2. Teams that choked under pressure-
DP: I'm looking straight at you Kansas City and New Orleans. KC had a chance to wrap up the #3 seed and a favorable match-up with the Jets (then Pitt if they would have won). Instead they got smoked by the Raiders and end up the #4 with a much less favorable Baltimore (and then possible New England) path in the play-offs. KC has lost their momentum and now look vulnerable at home to a team with a power running attack. Not a good sign. As for the Saints, I know they needed a very unlikely Carolina victory for the game to matter, but they looked flat at home to the Bucs. Tampa dictated tempo and shut down the Saints offense. The Saints should handle Seahawks easily, but I am worried about them going to places like Chicago or Philly. Is a second round match-up with Atlanta the best thing for them?
TJ: KC did it to me again: just when I think they’re for real, they throw out a shitty performance like this: Matt Cassel has a QB rating of 19.1, they give up 204 yards rushing, seven sacks, and when they’re still in the game in the 4th quarter, they give up 14 points and fail to score. The Ravens’ defense should have a field day with these guys. I guess the Saints weren’t motivated, but their inconsistency is scary. The NFC is ripe for the picking, but they can’t go to sleep on Atlanta, Philly, or even Green Bay, and they haven’t convinced me they can hold it together.
3. Teams that absolutely needed to win-
DP: Indy and Seattle plus Green Bay. Christmas came a week late for the Doc as Santa delivered both a 10 win season (and AFC South title) for the Colts and a 7-9 division champion! The Colts struggled to pull away from the Titans early and then needed a late turnover to save their asses. The Colts offense is running on fumes Pierre Garcon looked terrible as the #2 option. Assuming the Jets play Revis on Reggie Wayne, Garcon will have to step up if the Colts are gonna have any chance next week. On the bright side, the Colts running D and running O have looked much better in the last few weeks. As for the 'Skanks, what more is there to say? It was a putrid end to a putrid season for the NFC Worst. Green Bay is an interesting team. Their defense is playing better and they have a great QB and receivers, but almost no run game. I still think they look more like a team that can pull off a big upset than a team that can win 3 road games to make it to the Superbowl. Anyway, Eagles-Packers is the game that I am looking forward to the most. A lot of speed on both sides and no ability to run out the clock, could be another high scoring shoot-out.
TJ: Again, I’m with the Doc on these calls. I like Green Bay more than he does, but I can’t deny that their run game (and my Fantasy team) died in Week 1 when Ryan Grant suffered a season-ending ankle injury. Their defense is so good that they can stay in any game even with their often-anemic offense, but a couple turnovers or special teams mistakes could kill them in any game. Hard to imagine them avoiding any mistakes for four straight games against good teams. Indy ought to pick the Jets apart in round one, but I can’t see them beating the Steelers in round 2. The Steelers’ defense is good enough to hold Manning down, and their offense can score enough to finish the job. Seattle’s a joke, but it sure will be fun to watch them blow up!
4. Ten wins isn't what it used to be.
DP: Poor Tampa Bay and NY Giants, 10 wins and they are sitting at home while the 'Skanks host the Saints. Tampa Bay actually beat EVERY team in the NFC Worst, err West, this year. If they were in the West, they would have won the division by Thanksgiving. The Giants are a funny team, there has been so much negative written about them, yet here they are with 10 wins again. The Giants seem to be the most inconsistent team that consistently wins (if that makes any sense).
TJ: Some would say this argues for an expanded playoff, like 16 teams for instance. I think that would just lead to more Seattle-type jokers and more of a chance to see a crappy team get a few lucky turnovers in round one and bounce a deserving team. Baseball, hockey, and basketball can have 7-game series to prevent this, but that’s not possible for football, so we have to use the regular season to cull the poor teams out of the mix. On the related topic of the shitty Seaskanks making the dance, this is why I liked the old three-division setup better. A crappy team can’t win a six-team division.
5. Teams looking ahead to the draft.
DP: Going into yesterday's games Carolina had already wrapped up the #1, but 9 teams had either 4 or 5 wins. Another 3 teams had 6 wins. That meant there was incredible fluidity between #2 and #13. A few meaningless Week 17 wins completely changed the draft order. The final results for non-playoff teams are:
1. Panthers 2-14
2. Broncos 4-12
3. Bills 4-12
4. Bengals 4-12
5. Cardinals 5-11
6. Browns 5-11
7. 49ers 6-10
8. Titans 6-10
9. Cowboys 6-10
10. Redskins 6-10
11. Texans 6-10
12. Vikings 6-10
13. Lions 6-10
14. Rams 7-9
15. Dolphins 7-9
16. Jaguars 8-8
17. Patriots (from Raiders) 14-2
18. Chargers 9-7
19. Giants 10-6
20. Buccaneers 10-6
A few thoughts:
1. Ironically, the NFC West was so consistently bad that all of the teams were able to pad their win totals by playing each other. All of the teams had 5-7 wins even though in a real division they would probably have 2-4 wins. That means the draft picks (#5, #7, #13, #20) will be a bit worse than normal so a talent-poor division won't get much help.
2. The 49ers, Texans, and Cowboys all won meaningless games and dropped from potential top 5 to #7, #9, and #11.
3. The Lions took the biggest tumble. Their 4 game win streak to finish the season dropped them from potential #1 to #13. Thats probably a good thing actually. After spending big $$$ to sign Calvin Johnson, Matthew Stafford, and N. Suh, they probably need to some some dough.
4. The Pats have the Raiders pick (#17), plus their own (#30-32 depending on the play-offs) and Carolina's second round pick (#33). That's a pretty good haul for the best team in football. Plus they have their own second round pick (#62-64), Minnesota's third round pick from the Randy Moss trade (#76) and their own third rounder (94-96). That's 3 players in the top 33 and 6 of the top 96. Fuckers.
5. The Brownies are sitting there with #6, how do you feel about your boys Juice?
TJ: Yeah, I know it’s stupid to praise someone for not being an asshole, but I have to give props to the 49ers, Texans, Cowboys, Bills, and Bengals for winning games after they were eliminated and hurting their draft positions. Integrity and effort are all too rare not to admire those teams for giving a shit.
My Brownies better pick a defensive player or an offensive lineman, or I’ll lose my shit. If they waste another pick on a QB, RB, or WR, it’ll be a travesty.
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