Week 17 games are by far the hardest to pick since so many teams have little to nothing to play for. In fact, I would consider every game except Rams-Skanks as a clear stay away. But in the interest of discussion, we will break things down to three major categories:
Games where both teams have little/nothing to play for:
At Kansas City -3.5 Oakland-
DP: KC is trying to stay ahead of Indy and avoid a potential second round match with the Pats, so I expect they will put up some effort. Oakland is playing for pride at this point. KC is tough at home, so I will give the points. Pick: Chiefs.
TJ: The Raiders don’t have much to play for, but perhaps more importantly, they have to go to Arrowhead. That’s a tough assignment for a good, motivated team, so I can’t imagine Oakland getting it done. Oakland’s running game will be the key, and I expect the Chiefs to stack 8 in the box and put the game in Campbell’s hands. Chiefs should cover easily.
At New England -4.5 Miami
DP: Strict stay away here. No idea how long Brady plays and no idea how Chad Henne will do. Everyone seems to like Miami in this one, but I think they secretly may just stink. Pick: Pats.
TJ: The Pats are like a factory-produced machine: they have interchangeable parts (with the exception of Brady). I think that even if they rest their starters early, they’re still the better team. Miami’s good on the road, but this should be a cold, crappy game with nothing for Miami to gain, so I expect the Pats will cruise and cover the spread.
At Houston -3 Jacksonville
DP: David Garrard is out and MJD is banged up. These two are the only things separating Jax from being a bottom feeder. Pick: Texans.
TJ: The Doc better hope Jacksonville’s injuries keep them out of this game, because Houston is definitely the kind of team that could blow this game and let Jacksonville sneak into the AFC South crown with a Colts loss. I’m thinking Houston loses this one, and Indy has to sweat a bit.
At Baltimore -9.5 Cincinnati-
DP: I guess technically Baltimore could catch Pitt but it seems a little far-fetched, so I will put the game here. Cincy traditionally plays Baltimore close and Carson Palmer seems a little rejuvenated. I’ll take the points. Pick: Bengals.
TJ: The Bengals have played much better of late. I’m sure Palmer’s thriving now that the pressure of having to fill TO’s quota for targets per game is off. I think Baltimore will win this game, but 9.5 is a huge line, so I’ll take the Bungles and the points.
At Detroit -3.5 Minnesota
DP: Do you ever wonder why the NFL has so many rules to protect QBs? It’s to avoid match-ups like Staton-Webb! Pick: Lions.
TJ: The NFC North Pooper-Bowl! The Lions are scrappier and ought to take care of business at home. Detroit is the pick.
At Philadelphia -6.5 Dallas
DP: Philly has nothing to play for and will likely sit Vick. That means Kolb vs. Stephen McGee, woo-hoo! I like Kolb at home. Pick: Eagles.
TJ: Who the fuck is Stephen McGee? Did he play college football? Philly’s second string should still kill him. And Kolb will be playing for a contract with another team next year, so I expect maximum effort from him. Philly’s on short rest, though, and QB isn’t the only position on the field. I think Philly sits their starters and Dallas keeps it closer than a TD or wins outright.
At NY Jets -1.5 Buffalo
DP: Again, a strict stay away. All depends on how long the Jets bring their ‘A’ game. I think the Rex Ryan actually would like to get some confidence heading into the play-offs, so I expect a good effort. Pick: Jets.
TJ: The Doc is exactly right. The Jets have been embarrassed a lot lately and need a win to get their mojo back. I think they win big.
At San Francisco -6 Arizona
DP: When in doubt, take the points! Pick: Cards.
TJ: I can just see Troy Smith having the game of his life just to spite Singletary. I’ll take the 49ers to win huge at home.
San Diego -3.5 At Denver
DP: Lighting up the hapless Houston secondary is one thing, let’s see Tebow do it to San Diego. Pick: Chargers.
TJ: I’ll bet Tebow plays just fine and puts up some points. However, I’ll be Rivers has 400 yards and 4 TDs against that soft Denver D as San Diego plays up to their potential now that it’s too late. Pick: SD.
Games where one team has something to play for:
NY Giants -4 At Washington
DP: The Giants don’t look right to me. I don’t think Eli can just stop turning the ball over. Pick: Redskins.
TJ: I agree that the Giants don’t look right, but the Redskins look wronger (wrongier? wrongtastic?) with Grossman at QB. The motivated Giants roll and cover the 4 easily.
At Green Bay -9.5 Chicago
DP: Everyone loves the Packers. I think they may be a bit over rated frankly. I know they have had some injuries, but they are pretty inconsistent. Cutler may sit, but the Bears D will still play and I think they keep it under 10 points. Pick: Bears.
TJ: The Packers D is going to hold Chicago’s second string to about 100 total yards. The question is, can they score at all? I think Green Bay wins the game, but that huge spread has me hesitating. Fuck it, Pack win big and cover.
At Indianapolis -9.5 Tennessee
DP: I’ve been dogging Indy all year, but I have to give Manning credit for keeping things together despite the injuries. Tenn is 29th passing the ball and 28th against the pass. Indy is 1st in passing. Pick: Indy.
TJ: The Colts will be motivated and they know exactly how to exploit this Titans defense. No line would have been too big for me. Colts for sure.
Pittsburgh -5.5 At Cleveland
DP: Wow, the Brownies are getting a lot of credit, but not here. Pick: Steelers.
TJ: This line should be 14. The Browns’ offense has been exposed at one-dimensional. Pitt will force them to pass, and they may not score a point. I’ll take the Steelers and lay the points happily.
At Atlanta -14 Carolina
DP: If we know one thing about the Falcons, it’s that they beat bad teams. Pick: Falcons
TJ: The line is huge, but Atlanta’s at home and they know how important that #1 seed will be for them. The Birds should win by 20+.
Games where both teams have something to play for:
At New Orleans -7.5 Tampa Bay
DP: Tampa is a great story, but they are banged up, have not beaten a team with a winning record and are facing a Saints team that is preparing for the play-offs and trying to keep the #1 WC so they can go to the NFC West winner next week. Pick: Saints.
TJ: The Saints are the better team, playing at home, and they’re motivated. I say they cover.
St. Louis -3 At Seattle
DP: Doesn’t look good for Seattle does it? Lost the last three by 23, 16, and 19. Starting Charlie Whitehurst (54.7 QB rating). 32nd in the league rushing (so they can’t take away the pressure on the passing game). So that means the Rams, a 7-8 team that’s 2-5 on the road and has 1 win over a team with a winning record (San Diego) and has not beaten a team going to the play-offs is somehow a road favorite. I say the only fair way for this game to end is in an overtime draw! Therefore I will take the points. Pick: ‘Skanks!
TJ: The Rams should win this game by every conceivable measure, except it’s in Seattle, and they’re a young team playing under real pressure for the first time. I think they’ll fuck it up, and we’ll get our 7-9 division champ. Seattle is the pick.
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