At Pittsburgh -3 Baltimore
DP: There is no sense going back and forth on the analysis for this one. The margin of victory has been 3 points the last four times these teams have played, 10 out of the last 22 going back to 2001. They are both tough, experienced teams that know each other well. I’ll take the points and hope for a Baltimore win or for the Steelers not to be able to pull away. Pick: Ravens.
At Atlanta -2.5 Green Bay
DP: It’s funny because last week I did a lot of research because I didn’t have a good feel for any of the games. This week I just have strong gut hunches. I just don’t feel Atlanta has that ‘extra-gear’ for the play-offs. They are well coached and disciplined, but until they win a big game in the spotlight I just don’t trust them. I watched every second of the first match-up earlier this year and these are two very evenly matched teams. A couple of short yardage plays was the difference for the Falcons. I think Green Bay is used to the pressure of being on a national stage and will pull it out late. Pick: Pack.
At Chicago -10 Seattle
DP: Again, my gut just says 10 is too much. Sure Seattle could cave, but they are playing with house money now and are sure to be loose for the game. How will Cutler handle the pressure? God only knows, but I have no faith in him covering 10 points, especially when the weather could be bad. Pick: ‘Skanks
At New England -8.5 NY Jets
DP: This one is the toughest for me. Sure the Pats rolled the Jets earlier, but I think the Jets will learn from their mistakes. If the Indy game taught us only one thing, its that the Jets coaching staff is willing to make adjustments. It seems to me that the best chance the Jets have of staying close is turnovers. New England was famous this year for not turning the ball over. Was it skill or luck? The Juice believes turnovers are largely luck, especially fumbles. New England was the best this year with an out-of-this–world +27 (+8 on fumbles). The Jets were a so-so +4. Interestingly, the Jets were -5 on INTs, but +9 on fumbles. That means the vaunted Jets defense had a conference low 8 INTs but got really lucky on recovering fumbles so the Jets may have actually been more lucky than the Pats! The other way the Jets could keep it close is by using their running game to have long drives. Tomlinson did look better last week, but that was against the Colts. The Pats were alright against the run, 6th in the AFC at 108 yards per game. That leaves Sanchez and his accuracy was a real concern last week. Indy might not have the secondary to take advantage of him, but the Pats do (24 INTs). The Jets barely beat an Indy team that was ravaged by injuries and ripe for the picking. The Pats are healthy, focused, motivated, and peaking at the right time. Unless there are some injuries or fluky turnovers, I think the Pats can handle them easily. Pick: Pats
TJ: I’m going to do something a little different this week and try to be scientific about this shit. I’m going to rank each of the teams playing in the divisional round in four categories: offense, defense, coaching, and QB. I’ll take into account their opponent, injuries, and game conditions (so this is a ranking for this week only, not for the season or the career; i.e., I’ll say that Chicago’s offense is better than Baltimore’s this week because they play the ‘Skanks D, while the Ravens have to play the brutal Pittsburgh defense). After I rank each team in these categories (1-8, lower number is better), I’ll add up the points and make my picks based on how low each team’s overall number is. Here we go:
Offense:
1. New England. I actually paused here since they’re playing a good defense in the Jets. But after the beat-down they put on the Jets’ D in Week 13 and considering they averaged 38 points per game in the last 8 games (all wins, never scoring under 31), I can’t rank anyone higher. In fact, figuring out who’s number 2 is much harder.
2. Chicago. This was tough, since I think a few other teams actually have better offenses than the Bears, and I don’t trust Cutler (see below). But they’re playing at home against the weakest defense in the playoffs. I know New England and Green Bay shut them down in Weeks 14 and 17, but they hung 40 and 38 on Minny and the Jets in between, so they can score against a bad D.
3. Green Bay. I know this isn’t the best offense around, but if they can get similar production from the running game to what they got against Philly last week, they can score points against a less than stellar Atlanta defense. Remember, they put up 27 and 45 on New England and the Giants late in the season!
4. Pittsburgh. If they were playing the 2006 Ravens, I’d have to drop them down even further, but this Ravens’ D isn’t as dominant as it once was, and we don’t know how Ed Reed will play with the sad family circumstances he has to handle. The Steelers have a solid running game and a top QB, so they get the edge.
5. Atlanta. I love Green Bay’s defense, but Atlanta is playing at home, and they have an excellent, well-rounded offense with a QB who rarely makes mistakes.
6. Seattle. After last week’s performance, I actually have to give the ‘Skank’s O some respect. Also, they won in Chicago in Week 6, which has to count for something.
7. Baltimore. Don’t trust their QB, they’re on the road, and they’re playing an excellent defense that’s getting Polamalu back just in time to really disrupt the Ravens’ rhythm.
8. New York Jets. New England isn’t the best D, but they’ve been great against the Jets. Sanchez has played poorly lately, they’re on the road, and they could barely squeak out 17 points against a terrible Colts D last week.
Defense:
1. Pittsburgh. I just love the way they’re playing right now, and think a healthy Polamalu makes them the best D in the league. Plus, the Ravens’ O isn’t the toughest test they’ve faced this year.
2. Green Bay. Again, Atlanta has a solid, balanced offense, but this Green Bay defense has been playing at an elite level (only giving up 11.5 points per game since week 9). I think this might be the best D in the league right now.
3. Baltimore. Though they’ve declined a bit, this is still a great D, and Pittsburgh’s O is good, but not as explosive as in the past. Remember, this D held Pittsburgh to 14 and 13 points in their two regular-season meetings.
4. Atlanta. This is a good, solid defense, and they’re not playing the best offense in the league. Plus, they’re excellent at home, and are giving up let than 14 per game over the last four weeks.
5. New England. Not the best D in the league, but they killed the Jets last time, and they will likely be playing with a lead at home against a QB who performs badly when forced to play from behind.
6. Chicago. I wanted to rank them higher, but they gave up 34 to a weak Jets’ offense in week 16 and the Seaskanks showed they can score last week and have won in Chicago before.
7. New York Jets. A good defense playing on the road against one of the great offenses in football history and a QB playing at a level that’s off the charts.
8. Seattle. They gave up a lot of points to the Saints at home last week, and even though they’re not playing the best offense in Chicago, it’s hard to imagine them playing at even a mediocre level.
Coaching:
1. New England. What else can Belichick do to prove he’s one of the best coaches of all time? His game plans are always perfect, and his team is a well-oiled machine. He’s shown he knows how to scheme the Jets to a tee.
2. Pittsburgh. Mike Tomlin has done everything right in his tenure as Steelers head coach. He’ll have his team ready, and he won’t make major errors in clock-management, challenges, or play-calling. Dick Lebeau is arguably the best assistant coach in the NFL right now.
3. Baltimore. John Harbaugh is another example of an excellent coach who makes few mistakes. He relies on his veteran leaders to run the defense on the field, and he manages the offense well.
4. Atlanta. Mike Smith has been nothing short of excellent in his short tenure in Atlanta, surprising everyone by turning the disaster left in the wake of Michael Vick’s exit into the most consistent team in the NFC.
5. New York Jets. OK, Rex Ryan is a loud-mouthed asshole. That doesn’t make him a bad coach. Hopefully he’ll have a few new wrinkles installed on D, and we know he’ll do a lot to motivate his team.
6. Green Bay. McCarthy is a good coach, though he’s plagued by clock-management issues. He has one of the best coordinators in the league in Dom Capers supporting him, which gives him an edge here.
7. Chicago. Lovie Smith is a good coach overall, but he makes lots of mistakes and may have underachieved with this Bears team in the last couple years.
8. Seattle. This was a tough call, since Seattle doesn’t have playoff talent and had 4- and 5-win seasons in the two years before Carroll took over. But this is a 7-win team in the worst division in NFL history, so I had to rank him last.
Quarterbacks:
1. New England. I could start listing the reasons, but we’d be here all day. Brady is the best in the game right now, and is making an argument for best all-time.
2. Green Bay. Rodgers played terrific this season, plus he’s playing indoors against a good but beatable defense. He had a 115 QB rating the last time he played Atlanta.
3. Pittsburgh. Roethlisberger is a proven quantity: hard to sack, good under pressure, and the week off should have him healthy. He’s playing a great D, but he’s seen them before.
4. Atlanta. Matt Ryan is excellent in every aspect of the game and is playing at home, where he’s super comfortable and successful. However, he’s playing a terrific defense that’s been hell on QBs recently.
5. Chicago. It’s hard to rank Cutler this high when he still hasn’t figured out how to throw the fucking ball away to avoid the easy sack, but he’s playing at home against a horrible defense, so he gets an edge.
6. Seattle. Hasselbeck was amazing last week against the defending superbowl champs. This is a much tougher defense he’s facing this week, though, and he’s on the road.
7. Baltimore. I’ve made no secret of the fact that I think Flacco is a flake. Other than his size, I don’t think he has much going for him, and he’s playing the best defense out there.
8. New York Jets. The Sanchize has been floundering lately. He hasn’t had a QB rating over 84 since Week 11, and it was a season-low 28 the last time he played New England.
The Juice's Picks:
At Pittsburgh -3 Baltimore
Pittsburgh’s combined score was 10 compared to Baltimore’s 20. A lopsided pick that’s in line with my gut feelings anyway. The Raven’s D is finally past its prime, and I don’t think their offense can get it done in Pittsburgh. Steelers cover with ease.
At Atlanta -2.5 Green Bay
Green Bay gets the lower score, 13, with Atlanta close behind at 17. Again, this fits with my gut, which says that Green Bay’s defense is just too good, and will get them the outright win.
At Chicago -10 Seattle
Chicago’s score is, of course, lower: 20 compared to 28. The line is big, and Seattle will play loose, so this is actually a tough call. Chicago had four wins during the season of 10 points or more, so they can blow out a bad team. I think they’ll do it this week and cover the ten points.
At New England -8.5 NY Jets
A huge margin of victory for New England in my ranking scores (8 to the Jets’ 28) means a huge margin of victory on the field. Gotta take the Pats to run away with the game again this week. Pats cover.
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