New Orleans -10.5 At Seattle-
DP: This is the kind of game I hate to predict because you are not picking a winner in as much as you are trying to figure out if the Saints will cover 10.5 points. The Saints could have a 7-10 point lead late and just run out the clock because their only motivation is to win, not to cover. So we have to decide if the game will be a blow-out or not. The most important factor for a blow-out is number of possessions and field position. Will it be fast, up tempo game with big plays or will it a slow, plodding game. Let’s look at the stats!
The pertinent stats- Seattle Offense: 19th Passing, 31st Rushing; Defense: 27th Passing, 21st Rushing. Saints Offense: Passing 3rd, Rushing 28th; Defense: Passing 4th, Rushing 16th. Turnovers: Saints minus 5, Seahawks minus 9.
The first thing that stands out is that this will not be a big day running the ball. The ‘Skanks are a pitiful 31st overall at 89.0 yards per game. The Saints are not much better at 28th plus injuries to key running backs have left the Saints with only Reggie Bush (more a pass catching threat) and Julius Jones (who will not play much because of fumbling last week). So everything points to passing. The Saints obviously are good passing with ball with Drew Brees. He has a wide variety of passing options which will make it tough for the ‘Skanks to take away any one threat. The ‘Skanks obviously are hurting at QB with Matt Hasselbeck a shadow of his former self the ‘Skanks are 19th passing the ball. His top two targets are Mike Williams (65 rec, 751 yards, 2 TD) and Ben Obomanu (30 rec, 494 yards, 4 TDs). I don’t think it’s a stretch to say the Saints will have a much easier time shutting down the ‘Skanks top options.
So the last two things that could turn the game are turnovers and special teams. The Saints are a surprisingly bad -5, the ‘Skanks are unsurprisingly worse at -9. Leon Washington is the only person that genuinely frightens me on the ‘Skank’s roster.
So adding it all up, what do you get? A lot of passing (equals a lot of possessions), the Saints will easily be to take away Seattle’s best offensive options, and turnovers favor the Saints. As much as I would like to buck convention, I will have to take the Saints to easily cover. Pick: New Orleans.
TJ: All that and you didn’t mention the huge Seattle home-field advantage? I jest, the loud crowd causes just as many false starts for the home team as the away team (see footballoutsiders.com for stats), and the Saints have won a superbowl, so they’re not going to get nervous because the crowd is slightly louder than usual.
Doc, I think you’re basically correct in your analysis of run vs. pass for the ‘Skanks, but for New Orleans, I dug a little deeper. Against teams that made the playoffs, New Orleans ran for 112 yards per game with a 4.5 yards per rush average, pretty decent numbers. Against playoff teams (not including the ‘Skanks), the rusher for 43 yards per game, with 2.3 yards per rush, truly abysmal numbers. Against the ‘Skanks in Week 11, 112 yards at 3.9 yards per rush. Two points: 1) the Saints should run mediocre-to-well against the ‘Skanks, and 2) this is more evidence that the ‘Skanks don’t belong in the playoffs.
The other think to note about that Week 11 matchup is that the Saints won 34-19. Although it was in New Orleans, I look for more of the same this weekend. I’ll take the Saints to cover.
At Indianapolis -2.5 NY Jets
DP: I like this line much better. At -2.5 you just pick a winner and hope for the best. Anyway on to the pertinent stats:
Indy is 1st passing and 29th rushing. Their Defense is 13th against the pass and 25th against the run. The Jets are 22nd passing, 4th rushing. Their D is 6th against the pass and 3rd against the run. Turnovers- the Colts are -4, the Jets are +4. One thing is interesting about turnovers. The Jets have recovered 16 fumbles but lost only 7. The Juice has a theory that fumbles are basically luck, so maybe this is a sign that things will turn around for the Jets and they will start to lose a few more fumbles? If you believe in momentum the Colts have won 4 in a row, the Jets are 2-3 in their last 5.
This game is hard for me since I am a homer. I am trying to stick with logic and reason. When KC lost and Indy moved up to #3 to face the Jets, I was really happy. The Jets seem a bit over-rated, have really struggled recently, and are prone to giving up TDs when they are blitzing. Once you throw in the whole Foot-Fetish thing, it’s hard not to believe the Jets are a sinking ship that completely lost their confidence after getting embarrassed by the Pats on MNF.
That being said, this is still not a great match-up for the Colts. Revis may be down some, but he still matches up well with Reggie Wayne. If the Colts still had Dallas Clark and Austin Collie, I would be fine with that, but their #2 option is Pierre Garcon (67 rec, 784 yards, 6 TDs) and anyone who has watched him lately knows that he is struggling and that Manning has lost confidence in him. On the other side of the ball things are also a little deceptive. The Jets seem to have a good rushing game (4th in the league averaging 148 yards per game) while Indy has a bad rushing defense (25th giving up 127 yards per game). On paper it looks like the Jets can take away Indy’s best option on offense and then keep Manning off the field by running the ball for sustained drives and giving Mark Sanchez short third down conversions. I said it is a little deceptive, because the Colts rushing D actually played pretty well at the end of the season giving up 51, 80, and 67 yards in their last 3 games (against Chris Johnson of Tenn, Oakland, and MJD against Jax).
Being as fair as I possibly can, I think the game plays out a lot like last year. The Jets come out strong with a combination of runs and aggressive mid-range passes. They get some scoring options early and build a bit of a lead. Manning and the Colts come back later and have a punchers chance against the Jet’s Blitz. The question will be whether the Colts can hold them to FGs or give up TDs. If the Colts can keep the Jets to 6-0 or 10-0 lead then I think they can make it close in the end. If they get up by more than 10 points then they force Manning to ‘press’ his throws; which is when he makes mistakes. I actually like the Jets a little more in this game because of their balance and the Colts lack of receiving options behind Wayne. Pick: Jets.
TJ: So, the thing about a blitzing, scheming defense is that it has to constantly change to keep the opponent from picking upon the patterns and exploiting the inevitable holes. To do that, a coach keeps a few wrinkles in the bag to break out in important games or in the playoffs. Sexy Rexy doesn’t seem like the kind of guy who keeps anything in reserve, and I’m guessing he spent his wad against the Pats, Steelers and Chicago in the past 5 weeks. I’m thinking Manning does his usual film study and knows where all the holes are in this Jets defensive charade. I mean, shit, Brady basically showed him the game plan in that Week 13 Monday Night Football drubbing, and you can bet Peyton was watching at home with his notebook open.
I think the Doc is right to point out that the Colts D has played well against the run the last three week, but the Jets ran for 106 against Pittsburgh and 124 against Chicago, much better defenses than Indy can muster, and the dropped 276 rushing yards on Buffalo last week, so I don’t think the Colts can shut them down. They can get to Sanchez, though, and I’d guess they’ll rush the ends hard and pressure the Sanchize into a couple of bad throws.
Final analysis: Peyton makes good decisions and avoids turnovers, but the Jets run well and keep the game close. Indy wins by 1 point, failing to cover!
Baltimore -3 At Kansas City
DP: The relevant stats: Baltimore is 20th passing and 14th rushing (lower for both than I would have guessed). Their defense is 21st against the pass and 5th against the run. KC is 30th passing and 1st rushing. Their defense is 17th and 14th against the pass and run, respectively. Here we have strength on strength. KC really needs to use the run to set up the pass. If Baltimore can make the Chiefs one-dimensional then it allows Ed Reed to sit back and wait to double cover Dwayne Bowe, the Chiefs one big deep threat. I’m just gonna sit back and look at the big picture. The Ravens are 12-4 but three of those losses game to Pitt (by 3 points), @Falcons (by 5) and @Pats (by 3 in OT). Their one ‘bad’ loss was a week 2 game at Cincy. Last year they went into New England and kicked them around in round #1 of the play-offs.
On the other hand, KC may have 10 wins, but they didn’t beat a single team in the play-offs. They had three ‘decent’ losses @Indy, @Houston, @Oakland, but also got blown out @Denver, @San Diego, and vs. Raiders. Their offensive coordinator has already accepted a job to coach Florida’s offense next year in college (a strange step down from being a pro coordinator).
Final analysis: Jets were a better match-up and I think the Chiefs lost any confidence they might have had by choking last week against the Raiders. Baltimore has experience winning on the road in the play-offs and is used to playing tough games. Pick: Ravens.
TJ: I’d be all over the Ravens if not for one important factor: you’re asking me to back Joe Flacco on the road in a hostile stadium in the playoffs. I know they went into New England and won in the first round last year, Doc, but they were one of the best rushing teams in the league that year (138yds/gm, 4.7yds/rush, 115 first downs). This year, their run game has fallen off significantly (114yds/game, 3.8yds/rush, 97 first downs), and so the pressure is on Flacco to make up the difference. That KC defense isn’t stellar, but they’ll pressure Flacco, and I’ll bet he makes a few mistakes.
Looking closely at the stats, the Ravens’ 2010 defense is basically a carbon copy of their 2009 unit, very good, but not the elite squad they had five years ago. I think they can hold KC’s awesome run game to a middle-of-the-road day, so the question will be whether the Matt Cassel can put up decent numbers. I think he benefitted hugely from an easy schedule and that “sneaking up on teams” advantage that a turnaround team like the Chiefs always has during the regular season. By now, the Ravens know what to expect from this Charlie Weiss offense, and they’ll put Cassel’s appendixless ass in a body bag if he’s not perfect. I don’t think he’ll be perfect.
Pick: Ravens.
At Philadelphia -2.5 Green Bay
DP: Relevant stats- Packers are 5th passing and 24th rushing. Their defense is 5th against the pass and 18th against the run. The Eagles are 9th passing and 5th rushing, their defense is 15th and 15th against the pass/run.
Since QB is the most important position on the field, lets look at the match-up.
Michael Vick has been a wonder this year no doubt. But look closer at the number in his first 6 games he had an average rating of 110.7. In the last 6 games he averaged a rating of 90.4. Now that’s still great, but does it mean that defenses are catching up with him? The last game he played against Minnesota was his worst (25/43 for 263 with 1 TD and 1 Int).
Aaron Rodgers also had a great year (rating 101.2). He also has a nice stable of receivers with 4 having at least 500 yards and 7 with at least 20 catches. The Packers certainly need him to play well to win. They lost to New England when he was out and his QB rating in the other five losses were mostly below average (92.5, 75.7, 84.5, 114.5, and 34.7).
This game is by far the hardest for me to pick. The central conflict is that Eagles seem much more balanced on offense (passing, rushing, and when all else fails Vick running), but the Packers just seem to be playing better right now. The Eagles comeback over the Giants was impressive, but let’s not forget they were behind by 21 in the 4th quarter for good reason. The loss to Minnesota was pathetic and then the game against Dallas was a sloppy, meaningless mess. That’s not a great way to end the year. The Packers meanwhile played the Pats tough then walloped the Giants and held on against the Bears.
Here are the other random thoughts bouncing around in my head:
The Packers short game is terrible. Might be the difference between TDs and FGs.
Both teams lost early in play-offs last year, so they both have experience and hunger, but I would give a slight edge to the Packers.
Andy Reid is pretty good in the early rounds of the play-offs.
In the end I think it will be close, so I’ll take Green Bay and the points, but I’m certainly not confident about it. Pick: Packers.
TJ: I like everything the Doc had to say. I think these teams are pretty equal on offense, with the slight edge going to the Eagles due to balance and the possibility of Vick magic on any given play. However, I’m in love with the Packers’ defense, and think they will be the deciding factor in this game. If you throw out the New England debacle, the Packers’ D hasn’t given up more than 20 points since Week 7. Hell they’ve held opponents to 7 points or less 5 out of the last 9 games. Giving up 7 or less is an amazing performance, and this unit does it consistently. I think they’re the deciding factor.
My prediction? The Packers bottle up Vick and generate a couple turnovers to win a relatively low-scoring game, maybe 24-14.
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