Baltimore over Kansas City-
DP: There are some games where the numbers tell the whole story. Baltimore had more plays (78 vs. 40), more yards (390 vs. 161) and more time of possesion (41:44 vs. 18:16). I didn't think Baltimore played that well, but they were definitely more erady to handle the spot-light of the playoffs and took advantage when the Chiefs crapped the bed. Flacco's numbers were probably a little better than he actually played, but I still think he is a servicable QB. He has 36 wins in first 3 years and made the play-offs all three times with two road wins now. Think of all of the teams recently where people said 'they would be good with a better QB'. San Fran and Arizona this year. Minnesota with Tavaris Jackson. If the worst thing you can say about someone is that they win ugly, well that's not too bad. Baltimore now heads off to face Pittsburgh. Whatever is left of the winning team then faces the New England/NY Jets winner. This is pretty much the best scenario for New England.
TJ: This was a competitive game throughout the first half, mostly due to the incredibly bad play of Flacco. It was so bad in the second quarter, I actually texted the Doc: “Flacco sucks.” The two fumbles were horrible. Especially his 1st and goal fumbled snap on the called QB sneak. That’s nothing but nerves, and it cost his team 4 points. Against the Steelers, that could mean the game. I’ll give Flacco credit for playing a decent second half and avoiding INTs, but I still think he’s a subpar QB at best. He’ll need to play much, much better to beat the Steelers, and I’ll be shocked if Polamalu doesn’t have a pick or two.
KC had a great season, but they won’t have the soft schedule next year, and I wonder whether Haley can really run the offense half as well as Weis. The AFC West is still a weak division, but there’s reason to believe Oakland and San Diego will play better next year than this year, so I’ll be surprised to see the Chiefs running away with the division in 2011. I loved Bill Williamson’s summary in his ESPN AFC West blog: “The Chiefs’ program is further along than they thought they would be, but this is no time to rest easy. The Chiefs have to continue to work to improve this young roster. Remember, the AFC West plays the AFC East and the NFC North in 2011 after playing the NFC West and the AFC South (the two divisions with the least amount of combined wins) in 2010. The road gets tougher. The Chiefs have to keep working.”
Packers over Eagles-
DP: This game will probably be remembered for David Aker's missed field goals and Michael Vick's failed comeback attempt late in the 4th. It's probably right to remember this game for one team's mistakes, because the Eagles lost the game more than the Packers won it. For a marquee game I didn't think it was actually palyed that well. It seemed fairly sloppy with a lot of dropped passes (most famously the long TD pass at the end of the 2nd quarter that would have given GB a 21-3 lead). What's funny is that it does not show on paper at all. Rodgers numbers are pretty good (18/27, 180 yards, 3 TD, rating of 122.5) and the Packers finally showed a run game (138 yards), but they did not look crisp to me. Not like a team peaking in the play-offs. That being said, I think they have a great shot against the Falcons next week. I watched every minute of their regular season match-up and a couple of short yardage plays was the difference. As for the Eagles, I am still completely baffled. On paper they look like they should have easily handled the Packers. Andy Reid has traditionally had great success in the wild-card games, the Eagles had the better running game, speed in the passing game, a QB who could run or throw, and a defense that should have been good enough to handle a one-dimensional Packers team at home. It just looks like a couple of teams (specifically the Giants and Vikings) showed them a new look and they could never make the adjustments.
TJ: Said it before, and I’ll say it again: I love this Packers’ defense. They were absolutely superb, holding Vick to 33 yards on the ground and a QB rating under 80. They also held the Eagles to only 5-13 3rd down conversions, which is a real back-breaker for an offense when they’re trying to generate some momentum. On the other side, Aaron Rodgers played very well (aside from the fumbles) and their rushing game finally looked decent, with James Starks (who!?!?!) rolling up 123 yards. James Jones’ dropped pass was the only thing that kept this game from getting out of hand before halftime, so I think the Packers are a strong team and will give Atlanta all they can handle.
The Eagles are a good team with explosive potential. They need to bolster their protection up front to allow Vick to continue his rapid progress as a pocket passer, and they need to tweak that defense just a bit to be the kind of unit that can really apply pressure when they’re playing with a lead. I don’t see any reason the Eagles shouldn’t win the division again next year.
Jets over Colts-
DP: I am sure that publicly Peyton Manning will express his disappointment that they lost, but on some level I think he knew the team played as well as they could and just didn't have enough left (Unlike New Orleans which should just be embarrased). I think Chris Collinsworth was right when he said that the Jets had the better overall team and that the Manning would have to be better than "4 or 5 people" for the Colts to have a chance. Look at the two line-ups and he was right. Manning is clearly the better QB and the Colts probably have better defensive ends (Freeney and Mathis) but after that its either a tie or the Jets are better. They have a better O-line, better TE (Keller vs Tamme), WR at best is a wash (Wayne and Garcon vs. Homes and Edwards), better running backs (Greene and Tomlinson vs. Adai and Rhodes) and basically the entire defense is better. The Jets to their credit changed up their coverages and basically dared the Colts to run. With Manning not able to counter attack the Blitz, the Colts were held to the one long TD and 3 FGs. All of that and the Colts still almost pulled it off, but I can't say that I am in any way surprised the defense could not hold a 2 point lead with 52 seconds left. All of the Colts weaknesses came back to kill them on that drive: long kick-off return, a couple of intermediate passes, a stupid time out and then one last one-on-one play to Edwards. Game Over. Manning will get killed because his playoff record is now under .500, but he is a bit like Dan Marino in that he gets weak teams to the playoffs that never should have made it and then gets the blame when they lose. As for the Jets, they have been baiting the Pats all week and now they get what they wanted: a chance at revenge.
TJ: These teams both played poorly. I thought the Jets’ defense and the Colts’ offense were both OK and cancelled each other out, but the Jets’ offense stinks and the Colts’ D wasn’t good enough to take advantage. Sanchez played as poorly as I expected him to play (62 QB rating), overthrowing his targets constantly. He was lucky to have a run game to rely on, but next week we can expect New England to stack the box against the run and watch Sanchez throw the game away with those high passes.
I don’t know what the Colts need to do. I don’t like their defense at all, and they don’t have the team speed to support all the things Manning is capable of doing. Their running game is bad. They were led by Brown with 497 yards this year. They haven’t had an 1100 yard rusher since Edge James left in 2005, and he had 1506 that year. Addai topped 1000 in 2006 (1081) and 2007 (1072), but had only 544 in 2008 and 828 in 2009. Manning can’t have more than 4-5 more peak years in him, so I hope the Colts can retool to take advantage of his prime.
Seaskanks over the Saints-
DP: I am still in shock about this one and trying to figure out what went wrong. I guess on the simplest level you would say that the 'Skanks were able to counter the Saints attacking defense with long plays against a poor secondary. The 'Skanks had TDs of 38, 45, and 67 yards plus several other big plays plus they got tricked not once but TWICE by a TE falling down and getting up. Roman Harper and Terry Porter both seemed to be having their names called way too often. What is tougher to explain is why the Saints lost their poise so much. It’s almost like after going out 10-0, they believed it would be as easy as everyone said it would to beat the 'Skanks. Then when the 'Skanks struck back they freaked out and started to worry about being the victim of the biggest upset in play-off history. From the 2nd quarter to the end of the game, the Saints looked like they were totally freaked out, stopped playing fundamental football, and started taking way too many chances on defense trying to make a big play. What's funny is that the Saints are one of the last teams I would ever expect to do this (Pitt being the other). Last year they faced way more pressure against the Colts in the Superbowl but they handled it and won. You get a lot of confidence from that kind of win and I would have thought the Saints would have played a lot better under pressure. As for the 'Skanks, it’s off to Chicago. The Bears have to be friggin' excited. I know the 'Skanks beat the Bears earlier in the season, but this is the playoffs. The Bears don't blitz much because they get good pressure from their D-line, so the 'Skanks won't be able to counter with long passes. On Offense, the Bears should be able to scrape up enough points to win. Just think if the Packers upset the Falcons, the Bears could well be hosting the Packers in the NFC title game.
TJ: I obviously didn’t see this one coming, and even in hindsight, I can’t make much sense of it. I know the Saints benefitted from an astoundingly lucky turnover ratio to make their superbowl run last year, but I thought they were still an elite team. The defense is obviously the culprit here, and I think the Doc is right about them constantly overcommitting and looking for the big play. I guess they’ll try to draft some solid defenders or look to improve the linebacking corps in free agency, but I don’t see the Saints as a Superbowl contender next season.
The ‘Skanks had some luck, yes, but it’s hard not to be impressed with their poise and extremely high level of play on offense. Hasselbeck had a great game (113 QB rating) and Marshawn Lynch was a revelation running the ball. The stiff arm in the middle of his long run put Tracy Porter on his ass in one of the most embarrassing highlights I can remember seeing. This offense is obviously playoff caliber, but the Bears’ defense is a bit different from the Saints’. The ‘Skanks have two things going for them this weekend: New England showed everyone exactly how you can beat the Bears defense in Week 14, and the Seaskanks went into Chicago and won themselves in Week 6, so the outcome of this game isn’t a foregone conclusion. I’ll say this, if they can beat the Bears this weekend at Soldier Field, I think we might have to start calling them the Seahawks again.
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