Doctor P's Dilemma

So here is the deal as a 'Come Back For Football' bonus, my on-line bookmaker "Juan" offered me a one-time chance to make a bet and get all of my money back if I lose the bet. Not a bad deal. I think Juan looked at my success rate (about 10%, I'm not kidding) on NBA betting and realized that I am a person he has to keep around as long as possible.

Anyway, I have to pick out the week 1 game that I am gonna bet my whole account on. If I win I automatically start up 100%, if I lose I just start over. I think it will be fun to post the discussion on the blog and let readers vote. Here are the lines (games that interest me are BOLD):


NFL : Week 1

New Orleans Saints +4½ Points -115

Green Bay Packers -4½ Points -115

DP: Defending champs at home. Loads of continuity is important in a short pre-season. As I documented in my draft analysis, the Saints are getting a bit old and thin.

TJ: I also like the Pack. Should be an easy win for them. They seem like the type type of team that will deal with the lockout-shortened offseason really well.

Pittsburgh Steelers +2½ Points -110

Baltimore Ravens -2½ Points -120



Detroit Lions +3 Points -110

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3 Points -120


Atlanta Falcons -1 Points -115

Chicago Bears +1 Points -115

TJ: I like the Falcons to win in Chicago, even though they were a super “better at home” team in 2010. It’s not that I think Atlanta is that good (I think they’ll slide this year), it’s just that I think the Bears might really stink.


Buffalo Bills +6½ Points -115

Kansas City Chiefs -6½ Points -115



Indianapolis Colts +2 Points -115

Houston Texans -2 Points -115

DP: The Colts haven't gotten much press, but they are kind of a mess. Peyton Manning is coming off neck surgery and will take up >20% of their cap space. They've had to let a lot of free agents walk and the haven't drafted well recently. Houston easily handled the Colts at home last year and their defense has to be better with Wade Phillips.

TJ: As usual, you’re downplaying your own team, the Colts. They’re a good team, and even though Houston is capable of beating them, I say that’s far from a lock, much closer to 50:50. I wouldn’t bet that one.



Philadelphia Eagles -4 Points -115

St Louis Rams +4 Points -115



Cincinnati Bengals +3 Points -110

Cleveland Browns -3 Points -120

DP: As I wrote in the draft analysis, I like the Browns as a team on the rise. They have 10 1st or 2nd round picks in 2009-2011 drafts focusing on the lines and defense backs. I also like Colt McCoy his stats for 8 games look mediocre at first glance (1576 yards, 6 TD/9INT, rating 74.5), but 6 of the games were against play-off teams (Pitt X2, Bal, New England, New Orleans, Jets). 6 INTs came in two horrible losses to Pitt and Balt. I like his accuracy (60.8%) and I think the INTs come down. Meanwhile, the Bengals are like the Phoenix- periodically rising from the ashes only to catch fire and implode again. If Carson Palmer is out, that leaves poor rookie Andy Dalton to take over that mess with no OTAs and a short camp. Throw in all of the confusion with the Free Agents (Cedric Benson? Jonathon Joeseph?) and I think Cincy could be one of the three worst teams in the league.

TJ: I like that you like the Browns. I don’t think this is their year (division is too tough, and they still need to shore up the line on both sides), but the Bengals are a potential trainwreck. I see the Brownies getting a few early turnovers from whoever is sucking at QB for Cincy, then being able to pound away with Hillis. They should win by 10, maybe 14.

Tennessee Titans +2½ Points -110
Jacksonville Jaguars -2½ Points -120



New York Giants -3 Points -115

Washington Redskins +3 Points -115



Carolina Panthers +3½ Points -115
Arizona Cardinals -3½ Points -115



Seattle Seahawks +5½ Points -115

San Francisco 49ers -5½ Points -115


Minnesota Vikings +9½ Points -115

San Diego Chargers -9½ Points -115

DP: If I had to bet now it would be this game. I am assuming this line is so high because of QB uncertainty in Minny and will drop now that McNabb has been acquired. Minny is certainly a team on the slide, but they do have talent on defense and with McNabb, Peterson, and Percy Harvin on offense, I can see them scoring some points. Meanwhile, I think the Chargers are team in serious decline. Their drafting has not been good in recent years and their General Manager has seemed to piss off all of their veterans. They have a large number of free agents who they either have to: 1. let go and loss the depth or 2. sign to big deals (which makes me doubt their motivation to play hard). Oh yeah and Norv Turner is still their coach. I can't see the Chargers covering 9.5 even at home.

TJ: The Chargers/Minny line is nuts. I guess I agree you’d have to take advantage of that, but I really do hate Minny, and I don’t think the Chargers are completely washed up. It’s two shitty teams, really, so I guess you have to run with that 9 ½line.

Dallas Cowboys +4 Points -115

New York Jets -4 Points -115

TJ: I like the Jets to cover at home against the ‘Boys. The Cowboys could really stink this season, and Sexy Rexy is going to let slip the dogs of war on poor Romo. With the two best CBs in the league, he’ll be able to rush seven on every down. No way that Dallas line will be up to speed enough to handle that rush. This is probably my favorite bet.


New England Patriots -4 Points -115

Miami Dolphins +4 Points -115



Oakland Raiders pk Points -115

Denver Broncos pk Points -115

TJ: I also like Denver at home in the pick’em. They aren’t a great team, and won’t make the playoffs, but John Foxx should be able to coach them up to be better than Oakland, at least in Week 1. I like Tebow to throw for a TD and run for one in week one.