Week 11 Picks

DP: I got crushed last week so it’s probably best that I don't try to over think things. I was gone Monday and Tuesday and will be gone again Thursday and Friday so here my picks with a quick impression of each game.

NY Jets (-4.5) vs DENVER

DP: I suspect that people will try to over analyze this game with BS about the Jets on the road at altitude on a short week and that Tim Tebow's unorthodox offense is hard to plan for and will negate the Jets biggest strength (pass defense). I say that's all BS. The Jets are better and are desperate for a win.

TJ: Tebow had some highlights last week, but Sexy Rexy will have a field day putting 9 guys in the box and forcing bad passes with his ball-hawking corners waiting to pounce.  I don’t think John Fox is creative enough to utilize Tebow properly, and the Jets will jump all over the vanilla bullshit Denver tries.  Pick: Jets.

WASHINGTON (+7.5) vs Dallas

DP: 7 points is a lot for an up and down team like Dallas to cover on the road against a division opponent.

TJ: I disagree.  Dallas is finding their stride, and Washington is in turmoil (again).  Shannahan has lost any semblance of control he once had, and I expect Dallas’s new-found running game (with DeMarco Murray in front) to establish itself early.  Pick: Dallas.

DETROIT (-7.5) vs Carolina

DP: I look for Detroit to bounce back and handle a Carolina team that is struggling a bit.

TJ:  Yeah, Detroit’s offense will get healthy against a poor Carolina D, and their defensive line will pressure Newton into some bad throws.  I’m picking a lot of favorites, but some of these dogs just stink.

Tampa Bay (+14.5) vs GREEN BAY

DP: Historically you make money if you take 14 points. This just feels like an ugly sloppy game that will be closer than it should be.

TJ:  I’m sticking with the philosophy that has served me well for a few weeks now: I’m picking Green Bay until they lose outright, no matter how high the lines creep.  Tampa has fallen off a cliff, but even if they hadn’t, there’s no team I’m taking against the Packers right now.  Pick: Pack.

MINNESOTA (+1.5) vs Oakland

DP: Just a gut hunch that Oakland screws up their chances to win the division.

TJ:  I think Jared Allen is drooling over the prospect of jacking up Carson Palmer as he stands immobile in the pocket with nobody coming open, but I also think the Minny offense just has no bullets at all in the gun.  I think Oakland won’t need to score too much to win this one.  Pick: Raiders.

Buffalo (+2.5) vs MIAMI

DP: This may be the game that cures me of my strange Buffalo love.

TJ:  Nah, Fred Jackson will get back on track this week and Buffalo will make us forget about their drubbing in Dallas last week.  Pick: Bills.

CLEVELAND (+0.5) vs Jacksonville

DP: I love to take home teams that lost the week before against road teams that won the week before. I should probably get some statistics to back this up.

TJ:  Now that the Browns have ruined any chance of making the playoffs, they’ll go on a little win streak just to torture their fans.  Happens every fucking year.  Pick: Browns.

Cincinnati (+7.5) vs BALTIMORE

DP: Sticking with the theory that Cincy isn't terrible and that it’s tough to cover more than 7 against a good division opponent.

TJ:  I think both these teams are schizophrenic, and I have no idea who will actually win, so I’m taking the points.  Pick: Bengals.

Arizona (+9.5) vs SAN FRANCISCO

DP: Meh? Feels like about the right time for a San Fran let down.

TJ:  They’re 8-1, at home, and playing a truly terrible team and even worse quarterback?  Shit, the line can’t get high enough.  Pick: 49ers.

ST. LOUIS (-1.5) vs Seattle

DP: Essentially a coin flip game, I took the home team that only needs 2 to cover.

TJ:  The last three weeks, the Rams have won two games and taken the third to OT.  On the other side, the ‘Skanks beat the damn Ravens last week, so I don’t know what to think.  I’ll follow the Doc.  Pick: Rams.

ATLANTA (-5.5) vs Tennessee

DP: Feels like a bad match-up for Tenn.

TJ:  I think the Titans showed last week they can get back to the run-oriented offense and tight defense that characterized them throughout the Fisher era.  If they play Carolina every week.  The Falcons have a top 5 rushing defense and their offense is rounding into form.  I think the roll the Titans at home.  Pick: Dirty Birds.

CHICAGO (-3.5) vs San Diego

DP: This seems like an obvious set up game, so why am I still taking Chicago? Oh wait don't over think things.

TJ:  Chicago has figured things out, and San Diego is teetering on the brink.  I can’t take Rivers to carry the team on the road against a great-again defense and an emerging running game.  Pick: Bears.

NY GIANTS (-3.5) vs Philadelphia

DP: Another set up game. Isn't NY Giants at home way better than a Philly team with Michael Vick and 2 bum ribs? Oh shit, I'm over thinking things again.

TJ:  Philly has thrown in the towel.  The Giants have a chance to take a strangle-hold on the Division, and I think they’ll do it.  Pick: Giants.

NEW ENGLAND (-14.5) vs Kansas City

DP: OK, I am going to break my own rule about always taking 2 TDs mostly because it will be to someone named Tyler Panko to try and score for KC.

TJ:  KC has been killed by every good team they played, and some shitty teams, too.  Remember their four-game win streak?  It was against Minny, Indy, Oakland, and San Diego.  Not exactly a murderer’s row.  Their next five games?  NE, Pitt, Chicago, NYJ, and Green Bay.  They will win exactly none of those games.  And they’ll start it off by getting embarrassed by the Patriots.  Pick: Pats.

Week 10 Picks

As we enter the second half of the season, picking these games gets so much easier because now we know who the good teams are, right? Colts, Chargers, Eagles, all the teams that are always guaranteed to make the playoffs. Oh, wait, those teams suck, the Bengals, 49ers and Lions look like world-beaters, Belichick can’t draft or recognize talent, and the best running back in the league plays for Buffalo and went to Coe College? Right. Fuck it, let’s pick anyway.-TJ

SAN DIEGO (-7.5) vs. Oakland
TJ: Believe it or not, these teams are in a three-way tie with KC for the lead in the AFC West, and Denver is only a game behind. Oakland’s lost a couple in a row, both in the division, Palmer is playing like Palmer, and McFadden has been ruled out again this week. Lots of reasons not to like them, but I still think they have enough fight to give the Chargers a good game. Pick: Raiders.
DP: One of these teams will get a much needed win. Oakland has two straight bad home losses (shut out by KC and Tebow's Denver). Meanwhile the Chargers have lost three straight to @Jets, @Chiefs, and Packers. The Chargers have been much more competitive in their losses and they can still move the ball on offense. I like the Chargers

DALLAS (-5.5) vs. Buffalo
TJ: It’s not that I dislike Buffalo, but the Jets showed exactly how to shut them down, and Rob Ryan will learn from watching Rex’s game film and use the same strategy (play man coverage on the Bills’ sub-par receivers, stack the box to stifle the run, and pressure Fitzpatrick into picks). Dallas has only lost one game at home this year (a close one to Detroit), and I like them to run away with this one. Pick: ‘Boys.
DP: Easiest pick of the week for me. I love the Bills here. Buffalo thrives against turnover prone teams with weak passing defenses. The Cowboys have both. In addition, Dallas is a mentally weak team with a tendency to look ahead. I am sure they are looking at Buff, @Redskins, and Miami (Thanksgiving) and are thinking they are going to get 3 wins and be looking at 7-4 with a Dec 4 game @ Arizona for 8-4. One thing at a time! Pick: Bills to win outright.

Arizona (+12.5) vs. PHILADELPHIA
TJ: Philly is inconsistent, no longer has a shot at the playoffs, and is giving up 12.5. I just have to take the points here. Pick: Cards.
DP: Arizona may be 2-6 but they only have one loss >12.5 points. Their three games against quality teams (Giants, Ravens and Steelers) were all < 12.5. The Eagles have 2 wins > 12.5. I'll take the points. Pick: Cards

TAMPA BAY (+3.5) vs. Houston
TJ: Houston still hasn’t convinced me. All the Bucs’ losses are to quality opponents, and I think Freeman may have something left in the tank. I like the home dog here. Pick: Bucs.
DP: Houston may be 6-3, but 4 of those wins were Indy, Miami, Jax, and Cleveland. They are 2-3 against teams 0.500 or better (1-2 on the road). Tampa Bay's 4 losses at Detroit, @San Fran, Chicago, and @New Orleans. They home wins against Atlanta and New Orleans. I'll happily take the points. Pick: Bucs

ATLANTA (+0.5) vs. New Orleans
TJ: Another home dog I like, even if it’s only half a point. Atlanta’s on a three-game win streak, including a big on in Detroit, and though Ryan and Turner have been wildly inconsistent, their overall productivity has been good and should only get better over the next three weeks (all home games). I think Atlanta wins this game, takes a choke-hold on the NFC South, and finishes 11-5. Pick: Birds.
DP: Fuck who knows? Pick: Saints

Tennessee (+3.5) vs. CAROLINA
TJ: You heard it here first, kids: this is Chris Johnson’s breakout game. I predict 27 attempts for 145 yards and 2 TDs, plus 5 receptions for another 40 yards and a TD. Meanwhile, Newton throws a couple of picks, including a pick-six, and the Panthers never escape from an early hole. It’s that easy. Pick: Titans.
DP: Two teams that I have harbored crushes on this season go against each other. I like Carolina's balanced offense to win at home against a one dimensional Titans team (32nd in rushing). Pick: Panthers.

Jacksonville (-3.5) vs. INDIANAPOLIS
TJ: The pooperbowl. Will Indy pull a Miami and surprise everyone with a blowout of a poor team to get off the shnide? No. Not at all. Pick: Jags.
DP: Just a Gawd awful game. This may be a reverse jinx, but the Colts fan in me worries that they blow the only silver lining of the season (the draft) by winning a meaningless game here. I will submit some evidence though. Indy gets killed by passing teams with speed (see Atlanta and New Orleans). Jax has the 32nd ranked passing offense so I doubt they run up the score. The Jags are 0-4 on the road and have scored 3, 10, 13, and 14 points in those games). I think Indy can muster just enough offense to win 17-16. Pick: Indy

Washington (+3.5) vs. MIAMI
TJ: Miami’s blowout win was a fluke. Even so, were it not for a couple of field goals, they could be riding a three-game win streak right now. I think I’m going to stay away from John Beck on the road, and take Miami to play themselves out of the Andrew Luck sweepstakes. Pick: Miami.
DP: Everyone is going to pick Miami here but why? Because Washington has looked bad the last few weeks and Miami won last week convincingly at KC? My gut feeling though is that these two teams are fairly evenly matched and Miami has no home field advantage. I’ll take the 3.5 points and promptly forget about this game entirely. Pick: Redskins

Pittsburgh (-3.5) vs. CINCINNATI
TJ: Both these teams have played very well over the past five weeks, with Cincy undefeated and Pittsburgh’s only loss a close one to the Ravens last week. Cincy’s defense appears predicated on stopping the run and getting lucky with turnovers (they’ve recovered 9 out of the 10 fumbles they forced this year- a ridiculous stat). They can stop Pittsburgh’s run, but I can’t see them shutting down Roethlisberger, and I can’t see them scoring more than 17 against this Steelers’ D. Pick: Steelers.
DP: Its a good time to bet on Cincy. I think everyone will assume that the Steelers will bounce back after a tough loss to the Ravens and the Bengals will be the Bengals. But I will gladly take the team with a good defense (10th against pass and 2nd against the run) getting points at home. Pick: Bengals.

CLEVELAND (-2.5) vs. St. Louis
TJ: They both suck, so I’ll go with my heart (and the home-field advantage). Pick: Browns.
DP: St. Louis is showing signs of life after a horrendous start. I like them to go into Cleveland and win outright. Pick: Rams

Denver (+3.5) vs. KANSAS CITY
TJ: I’ve been down on KC forever, and that embarrassing loss to Miami only confirmed my instincts: the Chiefs are not for real. I like the points, the Denver defense, and God to help Tebow pull out another win and extend his tenure as the worst starting QB in the NFL (and that’s saying something this year!). Pick: Broncos.
DP: KC is still tough at home and have something to prove after last week’s embarrassing home loss. Pick: Chiefs

SEATTLE (+6.5) vs. Baltimore
TJ: Seattle plays tough at home, and the Ravens have got to be worn out after that slug-fest in Pittsburgh. This is a classic letdown game, and I like getting almost a touchdown here. Pick: Seaskanks.
DP: At 6.5, I am sure a lot of people will talk themselves into taking Seahawks with the Ravens going across the country to play a classic ‘let down’ game. Not me. I put money on the boys from Baltimore who already had one let down game this year @Jax. I think they learned their lesson. Pick: Ravens.

Detroit (+2.5) vs. CHICAGO
TJ: Chicago is another team that could suffer a letdown after an important road win in Philly. However, I think the Lions have to come back to earth, and that Bears defense is going to put a lot of pressure on Stafford to cover for the Lions’ weakened running game. This should be a tough game, and the line seems just about right to me. I’m going to take the Lions and the points here, but I won’t be shocked if Chicago wins by a field goal to break my heart. Pick: Lions.
DP: I took Detroit based solely on the match-up. Chicago struggles against teams with good defensive lines. Pick: Lions

SAN FRANCISCO (-3.5) vs. NY Giants
TJ: I really want to take the 49ers in this game, but the Giants have quality wins over Buffalo and New England in the last three weeks. They seem to play to the level of their opponents, though (see the 20-17 win over Miami), and they haven’t played a defense of San Fran’s caliber yet this year (the best D they played this year has been Washington, and they were held to 14 points and lost). I’m going to go with my gut and take the 49ers to take advantage of some Giants’ mistakes and win at home here. Pick: 49ers.
DP: The 49ers can run the ball (6th) and defend the run (1st). I like that combination to work against the Giants who are due for a down week. Pick: 49ers

NY JETS (-1.5) vs. New England
TJ: I’ve lost faith in the Patriots’ offense. It’s too one-dimensional. And their defense has been atrocious. As much as I hate the Sanchize, even he can play well against a Patriots’ secondary that doesn’t have a single player that could start for LSU right now. The Jets shut down Buffalo last week, and their offense is decent, so I can’t see a way to take the Pats. Pick: Jets.
DP: I have no fucking clue about these teams. Up week 7, I would have put the Pats as a big favorite to win the AFC and the Jets to miss the play-offs. Since Week 7 though the Pats have been man handled by the Steelers and Giants and the Jets have solid wins over San Diego and Buffalo. The Pats have the best passing offense and worst passing in the league. When they face teams with good defensive lines (like the Giants and Steelers) their shaky defense gets exposed. Luckily for them, its unlikely that Mark Sanchez will light them up. So who wins? These two teams hate each other and will be motivated. I think it will a close, hard fought game. The Jets who are 4-0 at home compared to New England who is 2-2 on the road. At -1.5 I’ll forget about points and just take the home team to win. Pick: Jets

GREEN BAY (-13.5) vs. Minnesota
TJ: Green Bay is favored by a ton every week, and they’re still 6-2 against the spread this year, so they seem like a good pick. They average 34.4 points per game (1st on the league), and Minny averages 21.5 (20th). However, the Vikes played the Pack close a few weeks ago (33-27 final), and they’re coming off a bye week. Also, the Pack gave up 38 to the Chargers last week. Man, I could talk myself back and forth on this game all day. Screw it, Green Bay rolls at home. Pick: Pack.
DP: Is there anything that could make Green Bay more frightening? Actually there is. After 9 weeks, the Packers have only played 3 home games. The closest game was an 8 point win over New Orleans on opening night. The other games were 26 and 21 point blow outs. They do have road games @Detroit and @Giants, but their remaining home games after this week are Tampa Bay, Oakland, Chicago. I think we wake up Tuesday morning after a blow-out win and to start hearing the 16-0 talk. Someone find Mercury Morris. Pick: Pack.

Week 9 Picks

The NFL has moved into the middle part of the season where teams look ahead or lose focus and weird upsets happen (I'm looking at your New Orleans). The Doc managed to escape at 6-7 but the Juice took a pounding (3-10). On to this weeks games where the Doc likes to go against public opinion!

DALLAS (-12.5) vs. Seattle

TJ:  I expect a big bounce-back from the Cowboys after an embarrassing loss to the Eagles last week, and getting Seattle at home will make it a lot easier.  The Eagles have the #1 rush offense in the league, and Seattle is 31^st, so I think the Cowboys’ D will have an easier time containing and scheming this week.  Also, The Cowboys’ love to pressure the QB, and since Seattle can’t run and has Tarvaris Jackson (or even Charlie Whitehurst) under center, this could get ugly.  I expect a big game from DeMarco Murray as well, especially if Dallas jumps out to an early lead.  Pick: Cowboys.

DP:  I have been wrong about Seattle almost every week so feel free to go against me. Dallas is the kind of talented but poorly coached team that blows out bad teams (Vs. St Louis) but then comes up short against against teams (Vs Jets, Loins and Eagles). I wouldn't be at all surprised to see them blow out the Seahawks, but I don't feel good enough to swallow 12.5 points. Pick: Seattle

San Francisco (-3.5) vs. WASHINGTON
TJ:  So I guess five wins in a row make San Fran the real thing, especially with the road win in Detroit and the shellacking of Tampa Bay.  Since Washington is such a mess (three losses in a row, no running game to speak of and [surprise!] a QB controversy), I expect the 49ers to overcome jet lag and roll easily.  Pick: 49ers.

DP:  A 3.5 line suggests that San Francisco is barely better than Washington which is clearly not the case. When the line skews this low it suggests that Vegas is willing to accept more money on the 49ers. Washington has looked terrible the last two weeks and has had some bad luck, but these things tend to even out over time. The 49ers are on the road in an early game and have a big game at home against the Giants next week. The Redskins are desperate and their defense isn't terrible so they should be able force Alex Smith to make some plays. I like the Redskins to keep with close with a late FG deciding the game. Pick: Skins.

Tampa Bay (+8.5) vs. NEW ORLEANS
TJ:  This spread seems high to me, even if Tampa is on the road.  I mean, I know I shouldn’t be reactionary, but that St. Louis loss suggests that the Saints shouldn’t be 8.5 point favorites over anybody right now, I don’t care where they’re playing.  The Bucs lost badly to San Fran in Week 5, but their two other losses were close, and they beat the Saints by 6 three weeks ago, so I think I’m happy to take the points here.  Pick: Bucs.

DP:  This is a bit shocking to me as Tampa won this same match-up a few weeks ago at home. These teams are not that far apart to justify 8.5 points. Games within the Division are usually closer and lower scoring which also doesn't favor a blow-out. New Orleans may win, but I don't feel good about a cover. Pick: Bucs.

NY Jets (+1.5) vs. BUFFALO
TJ:  This is a really important game for both teams.  A win for the Bills puts them in the drivers’ seat for a Wild Card, and keeps the pressure on New England for the division lead.  A win for the Jets gets them back in the mix, but a loss makes it really tough for them to earn a playoff spot.  The Bills have had a great season, with their two losses by a combined total of only six points, and their rushing game is convincingly good.  The Jets, on the other hand, have had an anemic offense all year, and are 0-3 on the road.  This is a tough one, but I’m going to give up the points and trust the Sanchize to fuck up down the stretch.  Pick: Bills.

DP:  No one gives the Bills much credit. They are 5-2 and tied for the Division lead but only get 1.5 points against the Jets. The Jets season is pretty much on the line this week @Bills and next week vs. the Pats. Two loses their would put them at 4-5 and in serious jeopardy of missing the play-offs. I'll take the Jets here based solely on match-ups. The Jets have a good pass defense that I think can contain the Bills offense. The Bills have a high risk style of defense that feeds off of turnovers. If the Bills can't build a lead then the Jets can stay conservative on offense and grind out a win. Pick: Jets.

Atlanta (-7.5) vs. INDIANAPOLIS
TJ:  Atlanta had a convincing win against Detroit last week and seems to be back on track.  And I guess the smart move is to just give up on the Colts.  Their average margin of loss is over 16 points, and it’s 29 over the last three weeks.  I won’t take them again until they prove me wrong.  Pick: Falcons.

DP:  This is another line that feels a bit low. There are certainly things that are concerning about this game. The Falcons have a big show down with Division rival New Orleans next week, so this could be a classic 'caught looking ahead game'. Indy is probably not as bad as their road losses @New Orleans and @Tenn would suggest. I'll take the Birds, but I am definitely worried about. Pick: Falcons.

KANSAS CITY (-5.5) vs. Miami
TJ:  Yes, KC has won four in a row, but the quality of opponents in those four wins has been pretty poor (combined record of 10-20).  Fortunately for them, Miami is just as bad as KC’s other recent competition, so I expect their streak to continue.  In fact, only giving up 5.5 at home seems like a real steal to me!  Pick: KC.

DP: KC has climbed back into the play-off race after losing their first 3 games so I don't they will lose focus or take Miami for granted. I like KC's ground game to carry them to a solid victory. Pick: Chiefs.

Cleveland (+10.5) vs. HOUSTON
TJ:  My Brownies are pretty bad, I can’t deny it, but, at least at first, Houston seems a little overvalued here as 10.5 point favorites.  They only beat Miami and Jacksonville by 10 each.  However, after I started looking at the Browns’ offensive stats (averaging under 11 points in their last four games) and comparing them to Houston’s (averaging almost 25 over the same span), I have to admit that this line seems about right.  In Houston, I guess I have to take the Texans to cover.  Pick: Texans.

DP: Another contrarian pick. Cleveland might not be great, but they have only lost by more than 10 points once this season. Their passing defense is pretty good which will encourage Houston to run the ball and speed up the game. I like Cleveland to hang tough until the end and cover. Pick: Browns

Cincinnati (+2.5) vs. TENNESSEE
TJ:  Wait, didn’t Tennessee let Houston hang 41 on them a couple weeks ago?  And isn’t Cincy on a four-game winning streak?  I don’t really like either of these teams, but I think getting the 2.5 is enough to convince me to take Cincy.  Pick: Bengals.

DP: I like the match-up for Tenn and think Cincy is due for a letdown in between a big road win @ Seattle last week and the Steelers at home next week. Pick: Titans. 

OAKLAND (-7.5) vs. Denver
TJ:  Two teams with serious QB issues.  I thought the Raiders might not be too much of a trainwreck, but that shutout by the Chiefs in Week 7 was terrible.  Here’s hoping the bye week was enough to get Carson Palmer up to speed!  Pick: Raiders.

DP: This line opened at 7.5 and was quickly bet up to 10 on the off-shore books when Tim Tebow was announced as the starter. So why am I going for the Broncos? Well don't forget Oakland has its own QB problems (the Kyle Boller/Carson Palmer combination at 6 INTs the last time we saw them). I expect a lot of running plays and a low scoring game. Plus I would't be shocked to see Brady Quinn or Kyle Orten if Tim Tebow gets off to a slow start. I think this one is going to low scoring and ugly so I'll take the points and hope for the best. Pick: Broncos

ARIZONA (-4.5) vs. St. Louis
TJ:  Last week had to be an aberration for the Rams.  They were averaging 9 points per game in their previous six games, then hung 31 on the Saints!  This week, they’re on the road, but they’re playing against an even worse defense: the Cards rank 29^th in points allowed, and give up a ton of passing yards.  The Cards’ collapse against the Ravens last week was terrible, but I still think they’re a better team than St. Louis.  I keep talking myself out of both teams, so I’m just going to go with my gut.  Pick: Cardinals.

DP: The Rams aren't as good as they looked last week and the Cardinals are at home. I'll stick with the Birds. Pick: Cardinals

NY Giants (+8.5) vs. NEW ENGLAND
TJ:  Everybody thinks the recipe for beating the Patriots is throw all day on their inexperienced, crappy secondary.  Know what?  It may just be that easy.  The Giants have an above average passing attack, and a good pass defense of their own, so I think they might be able to duplicate what the Steelers and Bills did to the Pats.  I’m going to take the points here, and hope Eli doesn’t screw the pooch.  Pick: Giants.

DP: This is a big spread but I like New England to cover it at home. The Giants don't have the passing game to exploit the weak New England secondary and I expect Billy B to have something special saved up for SuperBowl 42 pay back. Pick: Giants

Green Bay (-5.5) vs. SAN DIEGO
TJ:  I’m through backing San Diego.  They’re unreliable chumps.  Green Bay is the only consistent team in the league, and I think their defense will only get better.  Pick: Packers.

DP: This is my craziest pick of the week. Vegas is BEGGING you to take Green Bay. I think the Chargers have a better match-up though. The Chargers can pass (6th overall) and defend the pass (4th overall). The Packers can certainly pass (3rd overall) but are weak against the pass (31st). The Chargers are at home and stinging from two tough road losses (@Jets and @Chiefs). It feels for the right time of the season for a let down from the Packers who are coming off a Bye and are looking forward to home game against Division rival Minnesota. Pick: Chargers.

PITTSBURGH (-3.5) vs. Baltimore
TJ:  I love Pittsburgh at home here.  The Ravens offense has slipped.  Their defense is good, but it’s been inflated by playing weak teams with shitty QB’s (Kolb, Shaub, Sanchez, Bradford, Hasselbeck, and Gabbert in their last six games).  Their week 1 win over the Steelers was a fluke.  Pittsburgh has gotten healthy, and their defense was legitimized by the win over New England last week.  Pick: Steelers.

DP: Baltimore has looked like shit the last two weeks. Meanwhile, Pitt had a huge win over New England and probably wants some revenge for the Week 1 blowout by Baltimore in Week 1. I'll throw all of that out though as I expect a tough, low scoring game decided by a FG. Pick: Ravens.

PHILADELPHIA (-7.5) vs. Chicago

TJ:  Doesn’t it just feel like Philly is ready to roll off a long winning streak and make everyone regret the doomsday shit from the first six weeks?  I think it’s possible that Reid will actually use McCoy correctly.  The question is, can the Philly D slow down Forte?  I’m guessing the Eagles will build a lead that forces Chicago to pass, then rack up a few sacks on Cutler while Forte doesn’t get the touches he needs.  Pick: Eagles.

DP: Who knows what the hell will happen here, but it feels like a bad match-up for the Bears who have had trouble with fast teams like New Orleans, Green Bay and Detroit. Pick: Eagles.