Week 11 Picks

DP: I got crushed last week so it’s probably best that I don't try to over think things. I was gone Monday and Tuesday and will be gone again Thursday and Friday so here my picks with a quick impression of each game.

NY Jets (-4.5) vs DENVER

DP: I suspect that people will try to over analyze this game with BS about the Jets on the road at altitude on a short week and that Tim Tebow's unorthodox offense is hard to plan for and will negate the Jets biggest strength (pass defense). I say that's all BS. The Jets are better and are desperate for a win.

TJ: Tebow had some highlights last week, but Sexy Rexy will have a field day putting 9 guys in the box and forcing bad passes with his ball-hawking corners waiting to pounce.  I don’t think John Fox is creative enough to utilize Tebow properly, and the Jets will jump all over the vanilla bullshit Denver tries.  Pick: Jets.

WASHINGTON (+7.5) vs Dallas

DP: 7 points is a lot for an up and down team like Dallas to cover on the road against a division opponent.

TJ: I disagree.  Dallas is finding their stride, and Washington is in turmoil (again).  Shannahan has lost any semblance of control he once had, and I expect Dallas’s new-found running game (with DeMarco Murray in front) to establish itself early.  Pick: Dallas.

DETROIT (-7.5) vs Carolina

DP: I look for Detroit to bounce back and handle a Carolina team that is struggling a bit.

TJ:  Yeah, Detroit’s offense will get healthy against a poor Carolina D, and their defensive line will pressure Newton into some bad throws.  I’m picking a lot of favorites, but some of these dogs just stink.

Tampa Bay (+14.5) vs GREEN BAY

DP: Historically you make money if you take 14 points. This just feels like an ugly sloppy game that will be closer than it should be.

TJ:  I’m sticking with the philosophy that has served me well for a few weeks now: I’m picking Green Bay until they lose outright, no matter how high the lines creep.  Tampa has fallen off a cliff, but even if they hadn’t, there’s no team I’m taking against the Packers right now.  Pick: Pack.

MINNESOTA (+1.5) vs Oakland

DP: Just a gut hunch that Oakland screws up their chances to win the division.

TJ:  I think Jared Allen is drooling over the prospect of jacking up Carson Palmer as he stands immobile in the pocket with nobody coming open, but I also think the Minny offense just has no bullets at all in the gun.  I think Oakland won’t need to score too much to win this one.  Pick: Raiders.

Buffalo (+2.5) vs MIAMI

DP: This may be the game that cures me of my strange Buffalo love.

TJ:  Nah, Fred Jackson will get back on track this week and Buffalo will make us forget about their drubbing in Dallas last week.  Pick: Bills.

CLEVELAND (+0.5) vs Jacksonville

DP: I love to take home teams that lost the week before against road teams that won the week before. I should probably get some statistics to back this up.

TJ:  Now that the Browns have ruined any chance of making the playoffs, they’ll go on a little win streak just to torture their fans.  Happens every fucking year.  Pick: Browns.

Cincinnati (+7.5) vs BALTIMORE

DP: Sticking with the theory that Cincy isn't terrible and that it’s tough to cover more than 7 against a good division opponent.

TJ:  I think both these teams are schizophrenic, and I have no idea who will actually win, so I’m taking the points.  Pick: Bengals.

Arizona (+9.5) vs SAN FRANCISCO

DP: Meh? Feels like about the right time for a San Fran let down.

TJ:  They’re 8-1, at home, and playing a truly terrible team and even worse quarterback?  Shit, the line can’t get high enough.  Pick: 49ers.

ST. LOUIS (-1.5) vs Seattle

DP: Essentially a coin flip game, I took the home team that only needs 2 to cover.

TJ:  The last three weeks, the Rams have won two games and taken the third to OT.  On the other side, the ‘Skanks beat the damn Ravens last week, so I don’t know what to think.  I’ll follow the Doc.  Pick: Rams.

ATLANTA (-5.5) vs Tennessee

DP: Feels like a bad match-up for Tenn.

TJ:  I think the Titans showed last week they can get back to the run-oriented offense and tight defense that characterized them throughout the Fisher era.  If they play Carolina every week.  The Falcons have a top 5 rushing defense and their offense is rounding into form.  I think the roll the Titans at home.  Pick: Dirty Birds.

CHICAGO (-3.5) vs San Diego

DP: This seems like an obvious set up game, so why am I still taking Chicago? Oh wait don't over think things.

TJ:  Chicago has figured things out, and San Diego is teetering on the brink.  I can’t take Rivers to carry the team on the road against a great-again defense and an emerging running game.  Pick: Bears.

NY GIANTS (-3.5) vs Philadelphia

DP: Another set up game. Isn't NY Giants at home way better than a Philly team with Michael Vick and 2 bum ribs? Oh shit, I'm over thinking things again.

TJ:  Philly has thrown in the towel.  The Giants have a chance to take a strangle-hold on the Division, and I think they’ll do it.  Pick: Giants.

NEW ENGLAND (-14.5) vs Kansas City

DP: OK, I am going to break my own rule about always taking 2 TDs mostly because it will be to someone named Tyler Panko to try and score for KC.

TJ:  KC has been killed by every good team they played, and some shitty teams, too.  Remember their four-game win streak?  It was against Minny, Indy, Oakland, and San Diego.  Not exactly a murderer’s row.  Their next five games?  NE, Pitt, Chicago, NYJ, and Green Bay.  They will win exactly none of those games.  And they’ll start it off by getting embarrassed by the Patriots.  Pick: Pats.