The NFL has moved into the middle part of the season where teams look ahead or lose focus and weird upsets happen (I'm looking at your New Orleans). The Doc managed to escape at 6-7 but the Juice took a pounding (3-10). On to this weeks games where the Doc likes to go against public opinion!
DALLAS (-12.5) vs. Seattle
TJ: I expect a big bounce-back from the Cowboys after an embarrassing loss to the Eagles last week, and getting Seattle at home will make it a lot easier. The Eagles have the #1 rush offense in the league, and Seattle is 31st, so I think the Cowboys’ D will have an easier time containing and scheming this week. Also, The Cowboys’ love to pressure the QB, and since Seattle can’t run and has Tarvaris Jackson (or even Charlie Whitehurst) under center, this could get ugly. I expect a big game from DeMarco Murray as well, especially if Dallas jumps out to an early lead. Pick: Cowboys.
DP: I have been wrong about Seattle almost every week so feel free to go against me. Dallas is the kind of talented but poorly coached team that blows out bad teams (Vs. St Louis) but then comes up short against against teams (Vs Jets, Loins and Eagles). I wouldn't be at all surprised to see them blow out the Seahawks, but I don't feel good enough to swallow 12.5 points. Pick: Seattle
San Francisco (-3.5) vs. WASHINGTON
TJ: So I guess five wins in a row make San Fran the real thing, especially with the road win in Detroit and the shellacking of Tampa Bay. Since Washington is such a mess (three losses in a row, no running game to speak of and [surprise!] a QB controversy), I expect the 49ers to overcome jet lag and roll easily. Pick: 49ers.
TJ: So I guess five wins in a row make San Fran the real thing, especially with the road win in Detroit and the shellacking of Tampa Bay. Since Washington is such a mess (three losses in a row, no running game to speak of and [surprise!] a QB controversy), I expect the 49ers to overcome jet lag and roll easily. Pick: 49ers.
DP: A 3.5 line suggests that San Francisco is barely better than Washington which is clearly not the case. When the line skews this low it suggests that Vegas is willing to accept more money on the 49ers. Washington has looked terrible the last two weeks and has had some bad luck, but these things tend to even out over time. The 49ers are on the road in an early game and have a big game at home against the Giants next week. The Redskins are desperate and their defense isn't terrible so they should be able force Alex Smith to make some plays. I like the Redskins to keep with close with a late FG deciding the game. Pick: Skins.
Tampa Bay (+8.5) vs. NEW ORLEANS
TJ: This spread seems high to me, even if Tampa is on the road. I mean, I know I shouldn’t be reactionary, but that St. Louis loss suggests that the Saints shouldn’t be 8.5 point favorites over anybody right now, I don’t care where they’re playing. The Bucs lost badly to San Fran in Week 5, but their two other losses were close, and they beat the Saints by 6 three weeks ago, so I think I’m happy to take the points here. Pick: Bucs.
TJ: This spread seems high to me, even if Tampa is on the road. I mean, I know I shouldn’t be reactionary, but that St. Louis loss suggests that the Saints shouldn’t be 8.5 point favorites over anybody right now, I don’t care where they’re playing. The Bucs lost badly to San Fran in Week 5, but their two other losses were close, and they beat the Saints by 6 three weeks ago, so I think I’m happy to take the points here. Pick: Bucs.
DP: This is a bit shocking to me as Tampa won this same match-up a few weeks ago at home. These teams are not that far apart to justify 8.5 points. Games within the Division are usually closer and lower scoring which also doesn't favor a blow-out. New Orleans may win, but I don't feel good about a cover. Pick: Bucs.
NY Jets (+1.5) vs. BUFFALO
TJ: This is a really important game for both teams. A win for the Bills puts them in the drivers’ seat for a Wild Card, and keeps the pressure on New England for the division lead. A win for the Jets gets them back in the mix, but a loss makes it really tough for them to earn a playoff spot. The Bills have had a great season, with their two losses by a combined total of only six points, and their rushing game is convincingly good. The Jets, on the other hand, have had an anemic offense all year, and are 0-3 on the road. This is a tough one, but I’m going to give up the points and trust the Sanchize to fuck up down the stretch. Pick: Bills.
TJ: This is a really important game for both teams. A win for the Bills puts them in the drivers’ seat for a Wild Card, and keeps the pressure on New England for the division lead. A win for the Jets gets them back in the mix, but a loss makes it really tough for them to earn a playoff spot. The Bills have had a great season, with their two losses by a combined total of only six points, and their rushing game is convincingly good. The Jets, on the other hand, have had an anemic offense all year, and are 0-3 on the road. This is a tough one, but I’m going to give up the points and trust the Sanchize to fuck up down the stretch. Pick: Bills.
DP: No one gives the Bills much credit. They are 5-2 and tied for the Division lead but only get 1.5 points against the Jets. The Jets season is pretty much on the line this week @Bills and next week vs. the Pats. Two loses their would put them at 4-5 and in serious jeopardy of missing the play-offs. I'll take the Jets here based solely on match-ups. The Jets have a good pass defense that I think can contain the Bills offense. The Bills have a high risk style of defense that feeds off of turnovers. If the Bills can't build a lead then the Jets can stay conservative on offense and grind out a win. Pick: Jets.
Atlanta (-7.5) vs. INDIANAPOLIS
TJ: Atlanta had a convincing win against Detroit last week and seems to be back on track. And I guess the smart move is to just give up on the Colts. Their average margin of loss is over 16 points, and it’s 29 over the last three weeks. I won’t take them again until they prove me wrong. Pick: Falcons.
TJ: Atlanta had a convincing win against Detroit last week and seems to be back on track. And I guess the smart move is to just give up on the Colts. Their average margin of loss is over 16 points, and it’s 29 over the last three weeks. I won’t take them again until they prove me wrong. Pick: Falcons.
DP: This is another line that feels a bit low. There are certainly things that are concerning about this game. The Falcons have a big show down with Division rival New Orleans next week, so this could be a classic 'caught looking ahead game'. Indy is probably not as bad as their road losses @New Orleans and @Tenn would suggest. I'll take the Birds, but I am definitely worried about. Pick: Falcons.
KANSAS CITY (-5.5) vs. Miami
TJ: Yes, KC has won four in a row, but the quality of opponents in those four wins has been pretty poor (combined record of 10-20). Fortunately for them, Miami is just as bad as KC’s other recent competition, so I expect their streak to continue. In fact, only giving up 5.5 at home seems like a real steal to me! Pick: KC.
TJ: Yes, KC has won four in a row, but the quality of opponents in those four wins has been pretty poor (combined record of 10-20). Fortunately for them, Miami is just as bad as KC’s other recent competition, so I expect their streak to continue. In fact, only giving up 5.5 at home seems like a real steal to me! Pick: KC.
DP: KC has climbed back into the play-off race after losing their first 3 games so I don't they will lose focus or take Miami for granted. I like KC's ground game to carry them to a solid victory. Pick: Chiefs.
Cleveland (+10.5) vs. HOUSTON
TJ: My Brownies are pretty bad, I can’t deny it, but, at least at first, Houston seems a little overvalued here as 10.5 point favorites. They only beat Miami and Jacksonville by 10 each. However, after I started looking at the Browns’ offensive stats (averaging under 11 points in their last four games) and comparing them to Houston’s (averaging almost 25 over the same span), I have to admit that this line seems about right. In Houston, I guess I have to take the Texans to cover. Pick: Texans.
TJ: My Brownies are pretty bad, I can’t deny it, but, at least at first, Houston seems a little overvalued here as 10.5 point favorites. They only beat Miami and Jacksonville by 10 each. However, after I started looking at the Browns’ offensive stats (averaging under 11 points in their last four games) and comparing them to Houston’s (averaging almost 25 over the same span), I have to admit that this line seems about right. In Houston, I guess I have to take the Texans to cover. Pick: Texans.
DP: Another contrarian pick. Cleveland might not be great, but they have only lost by more than 10 points once this season. Their passing defense is pretty good which will encourage Houston to run the ball and speed up the game. I like Cleveland to hang tough until the end and cover. Pick: Browns
Cincinnati (+2.5) vs. TENNESSEE
TJ: Wait, didn’t Tennessee let Houston hang 41 on them a couple weeks ago? And isn’t Cincy on a four-game winning streak? I don’t really like either of these teams, but I think getting the 2.5 is enough to convince me to take Cincy. Pick: Bengals.
TJ: Wait, didn’t Tennessee let Houston hang 41 on them a couple weeks ago? And isn’t Cincy on a four-game winning streak? I don’t really like either of these teams, but I think getting the 2.5 is enough to convince me to take Cincy. Pick: Bengals.
DP: I like the match-up for Tenn and think Cincy is due for a letdown in between a big road win @ Seattle last week and the Steelers at home next week. Pick: Titans.
OAKLAND (-7.5) vs. Denver
TJ: Two teams with serious QB issues. I thought the Raiders might not be too much of a trainwreck, but that shutout by the Chiefs in Week 7 was terrible. Here’s hoping the bye week was enough to get Carson Palmer up to speed! Pick: Raiders.
TJ: Two teams with serious QB issues. I thought the Raiders might not be too much of a trainwreck, but that shutout by the Chiefs in Week 7 was terrible. Here’s hoping the bye week was enough to get Carson Palmer up to speed! Pick: Raiders.
DP: This line opened at 7.5 and was quickly bet up to 10 on the off-shore books when Tim Tebow was announced as the starter. So why am I going for the Broncos? Well don't forget Oakland has its own QB problems (the Kyle Boller/Carson Palmer combination at 6 INTs the last time we saw them). I expect a lot of running plays and a low scoring game. Plus I would't be shocked to see Brady Quinn or Kyle Orten if Tim Tebow gets off to a slow start. I think this one is going to low scoring and ugly so I'll take the points and hope for the best. Pick: Broncos
ARIZONA (-4.5) vs. St. Louis
TJ: Last week had to be an aberration for the Rams. They were averaging 9 points per game in their previous six games, then hung 31 on the Saints! This week, they’re on the road, but they’re playing against an even worse defense: the Cards rank 29th in points allowed, and give up a ton of passing yards. The Cards’ collapse against the Ravens last week was terrible, but I still think they’re a better team than St. Louis. I keep talking myself out of both teams, so I’m just going to go with my gut. Pick: Cardinals.
TJ: Last week had to be an aberration for the Rams. They were averaging 9 points per game in their previous six games, then hung 31 on the Saints! This week, they’re on the road, but they’re playing against an even worse defense: the Cards rank 29th in points allowed, and give up a ton of passing yards. The Cards’ collapse against the Ravens last week was terrible, but I still think they’re a better team than St. Louis. I keep talking myself out of both teams, so I’m just going to go with my gut. Pick: Cardinals.
DP: The Rams aren't as good as they looked last week and the Cardinals are at home. I'll stick with the Birds. Pick: Cardinals
NY Giants (+8.5) vs. NEW ENGLAND
TJ: Everybody thinks the recipe for beating the Patriots is throw all day on their inexperienced, crappy secondary. Know what? It may just be that easy. The Giants have an above average passing attack, and a good pass defense of their own, so I think they might be able to duplicate what the Steelers and Bills did to the Pats. I’m going to take the points here, and hope Eli doesn’t screw the pooch. Pick: Giants.
TJ: Everybody thinks the recipe for beating the Patriots is throw all day on their inexperienced, crappy secondary. Know what? It may just be that easy. The Giants have an above average passing attack, and a good pass defense of their own, so I think they might be able to duplicate what the Steelers and Bills did to the Pats. I’m going to take the points here, and hope Eli doesn’t screw the pooch. Pick: Giants.
DP: This is a big spread but I like New England to cover it at home. The Giants don't have the passing game to exploit the weak New England secondary and I expect Billy B to have something special saved up for SuperBowl 42 pay back. Pick: Giants
Green Bay (-5.5) vs. SAN DIEGO
TJ: I’m through backing San Diego. They’re unreliable chumps. Green Bay is the only consistent team in the league, and I think their defense will only get better. Pick: Packers.
TJ: I’m through backing San Diego. They’re unreliable chumps. Green Bay is the only consistent team in the league, and I think their defense will only get better. Pick: Packers.
DP: This is my craziest pick of the week. Vegas is BEGGING you to take Green Bay. I think the Chargers have a better match-up though. The Chargers can pass (6th overall) and defend the pass (4th overall). The Packers can certainly pass (3rd overall) but are weak against the pass (31st). The Chargers are at home and stinging from two tough road losses (@Jets and @Chiefs). It feels for the right time of the season for a let down from the Packers who are coming off a Bye and are looking forward to home game against Division rival Minnesota. Pick: Chargers.
PITTSBURGH (-3.5) vs. Baltimore
TJ: I love Pittsburgh at home here. The Ravens offense has slipped. Their defense is good, but it’s been inflated by playing weak teams with shitty QB’s (Kolb, Shaub, Sanchez, Bradford, Hasselbeck, and Gabbert in their last six games). Their week 1 win over the Steelers was a fluke. Pittsburgh has gotten healthy, and their defense was legitimized by the win over New England last week. Pick: Steelers.
TJ: I love Pittsburgh at home here. The Ravens offense has slipped. Their defense is good, but it’s been inflated by playing weak teams with shitty QB’s (Kolb, Shaub, Sanchez, Bradford, Hasselbeck, and Gabbert in their last six games). Their week 1 win over the Steelers was a fluke. Pittsburgh has gotten healthy, and their defense was legitimized by the win over New England last week. Pick: Steelers.
DP: Baltimore has looked like shit the last two weeks. Meanwhile, Pitt had a huge win over New England and probably wants some revenge for the Week 1 blowout by Baltimore in Week 1. I'll throw all of that out though as I expect a tough, low scoring game decided by a FG. Pick: Ravens.
PHILADELPHIA (-7.5) vs. Chicago
TJ: Doesn’t it just feel like Philly is ready to roll off a long winning streak and make everyone regret the doomsday shit from the first six weeks? I think it’s possible that Reid will actually use McCoy correctly. The question is, can the Philly D slow down Forte? I’m guessing the Eagles will build a lead that forces Chicago to pass, then rack up a few sacks on Cutler while Forte doesn’t get the touches he needs. Pick: Eagles.
DP: Who knows what the hell will happen here, but it feels like a bad match-up for the Bears who have had trouble with fast teams like New Orleans, Green Bay and Detroit. Pick: Eagles.
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