Week 4

The Doc didn't like any of the lines last week and stayed on the sideline. Given the officiating and the results, it was probably a wise move. This week I see more lines I like, but I am worried about the effect of the real refs. I think we might see a lot more penalties as they try to get the games back under control. How will this affect things? I don't know.

As for the actual bets, the Doc has a new strategy he is trying of 'paired teasers'. I'll explain it all in a minute.

$5.00 $19.82 Football NFL - Chicago Bears +160 for Game

Football NFL - Chicago Bears @ Dallas Cowboys Total O 41 -110 for Game

-Dallas and Chicago have a lot in common. Two storied franchises, both with mercurial Quarterbacks, both with a history raising their fans expectations to disappoint them, both loaded with talent, but also with fatal weaknesses. They are both 2-1 but again its difficult to tell much from the games. The Bears beat the Colts and Rams at home, but looked bad @Packers. The Cowboys had a nice win @Giants, but were crushed by the Seahawks and didn't look very good against the Bucs. Either way, one team will win this game to get to 3-1 which will put huge expectations on them for the season. I see the game playing out like this- Cowboys drive the ball early but settle for FGs over TDs. The Cowboys chase Jay Cutler around a lot but he scrambles enough to make long counter strikes against a Cowboys secondary that can give up big pass plays. I like the Bears late and I like the Over as 41 points seems low. I see something Bears 27-23 or 24-20. So I parlayed the Bears money line with the over and got almost 4:1 odds that the Bears will win a moderate scoring game.

$5.00 $6.00 Football NFL - Jacksonville Jaguars +120 for Game

Jax is getting 2.5 at home. I would have put the line more at something like Jax by 1.5 or 2. These two teams seem to be playing very similar right now. Jax lost a close game @Minny and were blown out by Houston (no shame there) but won a close game @Indy. Cincy was blown out by the Ravens (no shame there) and has questionable wins against the Browns and @Redskins. I don't see much separating these two teams and Jax is tough at home. I don't like the Cincy Defense right now, so I don't see how they exploit Jax's one gaping weakness at QB. I like the Jags to win outright at home.

$5.00 $5.00 Football NFL - Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3 Ev for Game

Sticking with my pre-season predictions. Tampa is playing tough right now with a win over the Panthers and tough losses @Giants and @Cowboys. Washington has created excitement with RGIII, but their defense is beyond banged up now. I think Tampa is flat out the better team right now so I will take Bucs at home giving 3 points.

$5.00 $8.00 Football NFL - Cleveland Browns +18½ -110 for Game

Football NFL - Buffalo Bills +11½ -110 for Game

Football NFL - Green Bay Packers -1 -110 for Game

This is a classic 6 point Teaser. I like the Browns to stay within 18 points of the Ravens. A lot of things point to a swift, low scoring game- short week (especially for the Ravens coming off an emotional Sunday night win), Divisional foes, both teams like to run, Brown's defense is sneaky good. I see something like 20-10. Similar logic with Bills and Pats. The Pats have to go on the road, against a Division foe that can pass the ball. Statistically these two teams look similar (of course the Pats had games against the Cardinals and Ravens while the Bills beat the Chiefs and Browns). Still I don't think the Pats are good enough put away a division foe on the road. I like the Bills to get it close. The last one is sort of straightforward. The Packers are mad, at home, and desperate for a win against a reeling Saints Defense. Any kind of win keeps me from losing the bet.

This is my new strategy- the "Paired Teaser". I pick out 3 games that I think will be close and then take 6-7.5 points on both sides. In these cases, you get better that +100 odds, which means you only need one to hit to make money. The beauty of the system is that if you miss one bet, YOU AUTOMATICALLY HIT THAT BET IN THE OPPOSITE DIRECTION. So lets say the Chiefs win by 28 at home against the Chargers. Well then, you loss the second bet, but you have hit Chiefs +6 in the first bet (below). 

$5.00 $9.00

Football NFL - Kansas City Chiefs +6 -110 for Game

Football NFL - St Louis Rams +8½ Ev for Game

Football NFL - Jacksonville Jaguars +8½ -110 for Game

$5.00 $9.00

Football NFL - San Diego Chargers +6 -110 for Game

Football NFL - Seattle Seahawks +3½ -120 for Game

Football NFL - Cincinnati Bengals +3½ -110 for Game

Now you just have to hit the other two bets (Rams +8.5 and Jags +8.5) to make money. If all three games stay within that 12-15 spread, you win both bets. In order to lose both bets, you need one favorite to win by a blow out plus one underdog to win big.

This looks like a good week to break out my strategy. A lot factors point to these games being close. KC and San Diego are Division foes, San Diego is probably playing a little better (wins @Raiders and Titans), but KC is tough at home and I don't think either team is good enough to blow out the other. I see another 23-20 game. Similar logic for Seahawks and Rams. Seahawks playing a little better but are on the road against a Division foe. The Rams will be ready to play a rookie QB who I don't think is capable of winning by more than 7 on the road right now. If Seattle does win, I don't think it will be by more than 3 points. I have already given my analysis of Jax-Cincy, but suffice it to say I see Jax winning a close low scoring game. 

Week 2: The Juice

Bears +6 over Pack

-        I love the Cutler/Marshall reconnection, and I love getting six points with them, even on the road.

Pats -14.5 over Cards

-        I know this line is huge, but this might be the best team in the league playing the worst team in the league.  I see this first few weeks as a coming out party for the Pats new defense, and the Cards are the second victim (RIP Tennessee).

Ravens +1 over Eagles

-        Wait, I’m GETTING a point here?  Even though it’s in Philly, I don’t see how anyone could like the Eagles in this game.  The only thing you can like about that team right now is speed on D, and the Ravens bruising run game is built to eliminate that advantage.  Plus, Vick is now officially a mental case.  Ed Reed should have a field day.

Broncos/Falcons OVER 52pts

-        I don’t know who’s going to win this game, but it’s in a dome, and these two teams are scoring machines with suspect defenses.  I predict a final of 82-79.

DP's Week 2 bets

DP’s Week 2 Bets:

Week 2 is all about forgetting everything you saw the first week and sticking with your pre-season research. The biggest mistake people make is to overreact to Week 1 results. I mean if Dallas had beaten the Giants in week 7 would we be that surprised? Would we write off the Giants or make the Cowboys the NFC East favorites? Doubtful. Upsets happen every week, but people overreact when all you have is one upset to go on. So with that in mind the theme of week 2 is “I’ll take the home team and the points”.

$5.00 to win $5.00   Football NFL - Carolina Panthers +3 Ev for Game      

Carolina is getting 3 at home against a division rival. It’s really hard to cover more than a FG on the road, especially against a Division opponent. I still hate the Saints this season for all of the same reasons- lack of depth, age on the defense, unstable coaching. For some reason the gamblers jumped on the Saints and moved the line to -120 Saints vs. even for the Panthers. I guess the logic is something like “No way the Saints lose two in a row”. That’s not logic, it’s self-delusion. I’ll take the Panthers and the points at home.

$5.50 to win $5.00   Football NFL - Miami Dolphins +2½ -110 for Game    

I’ll admit, this one was hard to bite on. Miami looked pretty bad in week one. About the only good thing you can say about Ryan Tannehill is that he’s not Brandon Weeden. But once again, I am throwing out Week 1 and sitting with my research. While I don’t love the Dolphins, I hate the Raiders (predicting them to have the worst record in the league). The Raiders had a late game on Monday and have to travel across the country against a good Miami defense.

$5.00 to win  $5.00   Football NFL - Seattle Seahawks +4½ Ev for Game 

This is a pretty good example of getting carried away. The Cardinals and Cowboys were both average teams last year. Seattle loses a close game at Arizona by 4. So maybe you’d think the Cowboys would be a slight favorite at Seattle. But no, the Cowboys win a big game at the Giants and all of a sudden they jump to a 4.5 favorite on the road. The early bettors even dropped the line to even for the Seahawks. Are there any indications the Cowboys can reliably travel across the country to beat a tough home team by more than a FG? I mean if you figure that home field is worth about 3 points, then Vegas is saying that the Cowboys would be +7.5 on a neutral site and +10.5 at home. That seems excessive. This is a classic let down game. The Cowboys are coming off a big win against a rival, have to travel across the country, and are looking ahead to opening at home next week. See it with me “I’ll take the home team and the points”

$5.00 to win   $5.00   Football NFL - Atlanta Falcons -3 Ev for Game

I’ve targeted this game for a couple of weeks. I thought that Peyton Manning might do well at home with plenty of time to prepare for a slow Pitt team that was without their starting safety. Now they travel across the country to face a very fast Falcons team inside the Dome. Peyton is notorious for his game prep, so this will be the first real test to see if his teammates are on the same page with him. I bet not. I think the Falcons win by a TD.

           

$5.00 to win  $4.55   Football NFL - St Louis Rams +3 -110 for Game        

Before the season started would the Redskins be a 3 point favorite on the road against anybody? Doubtful. That’s what one big week will do for you. I love RG3, I like his future, and I like his chances to win a close game. But I think we are all getting ahead of ourselves a little bit. Jeff Fischer will have his defense ready for RG3 and I think the offense can slow things down with a combination of running plays and short passes. 

$5.50 to win  $5.00   Football NFL - Tampa Bay Buccaneers +8 -110 for Game    

I don’t have a lot of logic behind this one. I just love the Bucs and historically the Giants don’t really respond until they hit rock bottom and we haven’t see rock bottom yet.

$5.50 to win $5.00   Football NFL - Indianapolis Colts +1½ -110 for Game

This one also looks simple. Minny won last week, Indy was blown out. But take a closer look. Indy is super weak on both lines, which the Bears are primed to exploit. But Minnesota is not the Bears. They don’t have a killer pass rush, they don’t have a top QB that you need to pressure. At the same time, Minnesota’s one big weakness- passing defense- is the one thing that Indy can exploit. They do have a nice passing game. I look for Minnesota to push Indy in the face early, but the Colts and Andrew Luck will counter with long passing plays to pull off a narrow victory. One more time of taking the home dog.

Weekend Recap

The Juice:

Hits- 

$5.00 to win $5.00 - NE (-6.5) @ TEN

Misses- 

$5.00 to win $5.00 - BUF (+2.5) @NYJ

$5.00 to win $5.00 - Pit (+2) @ Den

Plus from Wednesday

$5.00 to win $5.00 - NYG (-4) vs DAL

Pending- None

Overall- minus $10

DP's Take: There were blow-outs to be found on Sunday and The Juice correctly picked the Pats to easily beat the Titans on the road. Its also dangerous to bet on uncertain teams and by far the two most unsettled situations were the Jets and Broncos. The Juice thought he saw value in this chaos, but both teams came out and played well. And oh yeah, Buffalo stinks.

Doctor Psych:

Hits-

$5.50 to win $5.00  Washington Redskins +9½

$5.50 to win $5.00  Tampa Bay +4 vs.Carolina

$5.50 to win $5.00  San Diego Chargers -1½ 

$5.00 to win $13.00 San Diego Chargers +1.5 to win game parlay with Under 46 points

Misses-

$10.00 to win $25.00

Football NFL - Philadelphia Eagles -1½

Football NFL - New England Patriots -1

Football NFL - Minnesota Vikings +2 

Football NFL - Detroit Lions -2½ 

So Far- +$18

DP's Take: I was right on for my analysis of the Redskins over the Saints (my RG III ROY bet also looks pretty good too). My Teaser had a strange life of its own. The Pats easily took care of business so that was never a worry. Twice I thought the bet was dead with Jax and St. Louis up late, but then the Vikings and Lions rallied for wins which just left the Eagles. They managed to rally by 1 point but I needed 1.5 so I lost by half a point. As the game was winding down, I actually knew the bet was dead so I was rooting hard for The Juice's team to pull the upset. Unfortunately we both lost.

I also added two late bets when I saw the lines move. Tampa moved to +4 at home and since I love Tampa this year, I took the points against a Carolina team I saw regressing a little. Oakland also moved to home favorites -1.5, I was pretty shocked by this. I also don't like the over of 46. So I doubled down on my bet for the Chargers and added a Chargers plus Under parlay. So with the Chargers pulling off the 22-14, I ended the week a respectable +$18. Now if I could just avoid Teasers next week, maybe I can keep the streak alive.

Thursday Morning Post-Mortem

Tough loss for The Juice last night as the Cowboys beat the Giants straight-up and The Juice lost his bet.

So what this there to take away from this?

TJ: First off: fuck.  Second, I thought the Giants were the better team throughout that game.  The early fumble by the rookie RB, the blown chances to score TDs from inside the 10, the missed tackles in the 3rd that led to a 45 yd run to keep the Cowboys alive.  All excuses, yes, but I think if that game is played ten times, the Giants win seven or eight.  I still like the Giants to win the division, and the Cowboys to finish 8-8 or worse.  Also: fuck.

DP: I think the lesson is to be careful of second-year coordinators that finally get the personnel to run their schemes. Rob Ryan's blitz happy defense struggled last year with a pair of sub-par CBs. Now with Brandon Carr and Morris Claiborne, he may have the coverage he needs to release the hounds. Look for a big year from DeMarcus Ware who already has 2 sacks.