DP's Week 2 bets

DP’s Week 2 Bets:

Week 2 is all about forgetting everything you saw the first week and sticking with your pre-season research. The biggest mistake people make is to overreact to Week 1 results. I mean if Dallas had beaten the Giants in week 7 would we be that surprised? Would we write off the Giants or make the Cowboys the NFC East favorites? Doubtful. Upsets happen every week, but people overreact when all you have is one upset to go on. So with that in mind the theme of week 2 is “I’ll take the home team and the points”.

$5.00 to win $5.00   Football NFL - Carolina Panthers +3 Ev for Game      

Carolina is getting 3 at home against a division rival. It’s really hard to cover more than a FG on the road, especially against a Division opponent. I still hate the Saints this season for all of the same reasons- lack of depth, age on the defense, unstable coaching. For some reason the gamblers jumped on the Saints and moved the line to -120 Saints vs. even for the Panthers. I guess the logic is something like “No way the Saints lose two in a row”. That’s not logic, it’s self-delusion. I’ll take the Panthers and the points at home.

$5.50 to win $5.00   Football NFL - Miami Dolphins +2½ -110 for Game    

I’ll admit, this one was hard to bite on. Miami looked pretty bad in week one. About the only good thing you can say about Ryan Tannehill is that he’s not Brandon Weeden. But once again, I am throwing out Week 1 and sitting with my research. While I don’t love the Dolphins, I hate the Raiders (predicting them to have the worst record in the league). The Raiders had a late game on Monday and have to travel across the country against a good Miami defense.

$5.00 to win  $5.00   Football NFL - Seattle Seahawks +4½ Ev for Game 

This is a pretty good example of getting carried away. The Cardinals and Cowboys were both average teams last year. Seattle loses a close game at Arizona by 4. So maybe you’d think the Cowboys would be a slight favorite at Seattle. But no, the Cowboys win a big game at the Giants and all of a sudden they jump to a 4.5 favorite on the road. The early bettors even dropped the line to even for the Seahawks. Are there any indications the Cowboys can reliably travel across the country to beat a tough home team by more than a FG? I mean if you figure that home field is worth about 3 points, then Vegas is saying that the Cowboys would be +7.5 on a neutral site and +10.5 at home. That seems excessive. This is a classic let down game. The Cowboys are coming off a big win against a rival, have to travel across the country, and are looking ahead to opening at home next week. See it with me “I’ll take the home team and the points”

$5.00 to win   $5.00   Football NFL - Atlanta Falcons -3 Ev for Game

I’ve targeted this game for a couple of weeks. I thought that Peyton Manning might do well at home with plenty of time to prepare for a slow Pitt team that was without their starting safety. Now they travel across the country to face a very fast Falcons team inside the Dome. Peyton is notorious for his game prep, so this will be the first real test to see if his teammates are on the same page with him. I bet not. I think the Falcons win by a TD.

           

$5.00 to win  $4.55   Football NFL - St Louis Rams +3 -110 for Game        

Before the season started would the Redskins be a 3 point favorite on the road against anybody? Doubtful. That’s what one big week will do for you. I love RG3, I like his future, and I like his chances to win a close game. But I think we are all getting ahead of ourselves a little bit. Jeff Fischer will have his defense ready for RG3 and I think the offense can slow things down with a combination of running plays and short passes. 

$5.50 to win  $5.00   Football NFL - Tampa Bay Buccaneers +8 -110 for Game    

I don’t have a lot of logic behind this one. I just love the Bucs and historically the Giants don’t really respond until they hit rock bottom and we haven’t see rock bottom yet.

$5.50 to win $5.00   Football NFL - Indianapolis Colts +1½ -110 for Game

This one also looks simple. Minny won last week, Indy was blown out. But take a closer look. Indy is super weak on both lines, which the Bears are primed to exploit. But Minnesota is not the Bears. They don’t have a killer pass rush, they don’t have a top QB that you need to pressure. At the same time, Minnesota’s one big weakness- passing defense- is the one thing that Indy can exploit. They do have a nice passing game. I look for Minnesota to push Indy in the face early, but the Colts and Andrew Luck will counter with long passing plays to pull off a narrow victory. One more time of taking the home dog.