The Doc’s bets:
$6.25 $5.00 Football Futures - Regular Season Wins Under 8 Wins -125 for Cincinnati Bengals Reg Season Wins
The Bengals were a surprise 9-7 team last year and made the play-offs. They had two first round draft picks and should expect continued improvement from second year players QB Andy Dalton and WR AJ Green. So why am I down on the Bengals. Well they may have been 9-7 last year, but they were 0-7 against play-off teams and their point differential suggested they were playing closer to a 7-9 team. The schedule is tougher- they have the NFC East and AFC West- which means games against the Giants, Eagles, Cowboys and Denver. Potentially winnable games against KC, San Diego, Washington and Jax are all on the road. That leaves home games against Cleveland, Miami, and Oakland as the only games that Cincy will clearly be favored in. Finally they end the season with Dallas, @Philly, @Pitt, Bal, 4 teams that should still be in the play-off race with reason to be motivated. The Bengals need to get 9 wins for me to lose the bet, I feel pretty good about it.
The Juice’s Take: This is a logical argument, and I agree with the bet. Frankly, I hated on the Bengals all last season, and never believed they were for real, so I definitely think they come back down to earth this year. The only argument against is that many of the teams you listed as tough beats are actually not that stable. The Browns are terrible, and there’s a possibility the Steelers and/or Ravens fall off this year, leaving Cincy with an easier division, it’s possible that a couple of the NFC East teams getting hype could actually stink (Eagles/Cowboys), and the AFC West could suck again. It’s unlikely that all those things happen, and I still think the under is a great bet, but it’s possible.
$7.00 $5.00 Football Futures - Regular Season Wins Under 8 Wins -140 for Kansas City Chiefs Reg Season Wins
KC is another team that needs 9 wins for me to lose the bet. The Chiefs won 7 games last year and were pretty lucky to get that- there point differential was closer to a 5 win team. True they had a rash of injuries, but I'm not in love with their draft picks or free agent signings. The schedule this year brings in the NFC South and AFC North plus I project the Broncos and Chargers to be better. The most winnable games on the schedule are Cincy, Car, Oak, Indy plus a decent chance with road games @TB and @Cleveland. Even if they swept those 6, they would still need 3 wins from Atlanta, @Pitt, Balt, @Buff, @NO, and SD and Denver.
The Juice’s Take: I like this bet for all the reasons I like the Cincy bet. The same counter argument applies (AFC West could be horrible again, and NO, Pitt, Atl, etc. could fall apart), but it still seems hard to find nine wins for this team. Plus, Romeo Crennell is coaching them. Bonus!
$8.00 $6.15 Football Futures - Regular Season Wins Over 6 Wins -130 for Tampa Bay Buccaneers Reg Season Wins plus
$5.00 $70.00 Football Futures - Divisions Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1400 for To Win NFC South
I like Tampa as a sneaky pick this year. One year after riding an easy schedule and some dumb luck to a 10 win season, the Bucs fell apart last year to pick up only 4 wins. There is some reason for hope though. Teams that fall off so dramatically usually bounce back for several reasons. First, the Bucs had terrible luck with turnovers. They were a league worse in turnover differential at -16 including a spike in QB Josh Freeman's INT rate (4% of passes thrown, up from 1.6%, thanks to Bill Barnwell for the stats). That number has to come down. Secondly, the team clearly quit on their coach. After starting 4-2, the Bucs lost 10 in a row, so I am expecting a a little bump from a new coach. Third, I project the Division to be softening a little. We all know about the chaos in New Orleans, but if you look at the recent draft histories the other teams in the Division, you will see that a few years of bad drafting may be catching up to the depth charts of Carolina (Newton is great, but not much other help), Atl (gave up a lot for Julio Jones), and NO (Gave up their #1 for Mark Ingram, plus they lost their #2 due to Bounty-Gate). Meanwhile, TB had a pretty nice draft with good initial reports on safety Mark Barron, RB Doug Matin, and LB Lavonte David. Finally, let’s look at the Schedule. I need 6 wins for a draw (remember the NFL is a league of mediocrity, only 7/32 teams won fewer than 6 games last year). In addition to a weaker Division schedule, they get home games with Wash, KC, SD, and St Louis plus winnable road games with @Minny and @Oak. In fact, I like the Bucs odds so much that that leads to second bet. $5 on +1400 to win the Division. With a bit of luck, I could see the Bucs make it to 9-7 or even 10-6. If Carolina is a little better and Atl and New Orleans are a little worse (which is likely). Then I see all 4 teams clustered in the 7-9 to 9-7 range. Hey Crazier things have happened.
The Juice’s Take: I, too, love Tampa, and I pimped them in my bets as well. However, an injury to Josh Freeman or problems adjusting to a new coach could derail the season. This is a team that quit on their coach last year, and so there could be a reason not to trust them. But who am I kidding? I love this bet.
$10.00 $11.00 Football Futures - Regular Season Wins Over 9 Wins +110 for San Diego Chargers Reg Season Wins
The Chargers have certainly under achieved for several years- partly from bad luck and partly because they seem to wilt in the face of high expectations. Which is one of the reasons I like them as a sleeper. The Chargers have been flying under the radar with the departure of Tim Tebow and the arrival of Peyton Manning into the Division, but there is still a lot of talent there. Philip Rivers had a career high 20 INTs last year after averaging 11 the past three years. Even with that he still put up 27 TDs and a QB rating of 88.7. If he gets anywhere near the 30 TD-11 INT range and 100+QB rating he had the previous three seasons, then the Chargers should be much better. The Chargers had a series of tough losses in the middle of the season (including OT losses to KC and Denver that effectively cost them the Division), but finished strong winning 4 out 5 games down the stretch. You may not love the coach or GM, but they have had years of stability which has allowed them to draft consistently without switching up schemes. Finally the schedule isn't great (AFC North and NFC South), but it shapes up well. The Chargers start with winnable games @Oak, Tenn, Atl, and @KC. In addition to the regular slate of KC, Oak, and Denver, other home games include Balt, Cincy, and Carolina. The toughest road trips are @Pitt, @New Orleans and @ Jets. Even if they only go 1-2 in those games, they still have @Browns and @Bucs which makes 2-3 or even 3-2 possible in non-Division road games. Overall I like the Chargers as a sleeper and think they can comfortably get 9 wins with a good chance at more.
The Juice’s Take: Not gonna convince me on this one. I don’t hate the bet, but I’ll never trust this Chargers team. Gates isn’t Gates anymore, and they traded Vincent Jackson, so who the fuck is Rivers going to throw to? I looked at their defensive depth chart and recognized two names: Quentin Jammer and Takeo Spikes. The rest are scrubs. I think the window closed for this team a couple years ago, and they could be ready to fall off a cliff. I don’t hate this bet, but you need 10 wins to win the bet, and I just don’t see it happening.
$10.50 $10.00 Football Futures - Regular Season Wins Under 7 Wins -105 for Oakland Raiders Reg Season Wins plus
$5.00 $80.00 Football Futures - Regular Season Record Oakland Raiders +1600 for To Finish with Worst Reg Season Record
Oakland finished 8-8 last year but there is reason to suspect that they will fall back to Earth in the first full season with Al Davis running the show. First up, the Division is better. I already wrote about my San Diego love and Denver should be better with Peyton. Even if I don't think KC makes it to 8 wins, they are still a tough opponent at Arrowhead. Secondly, they lost a lot of players in Free Agency since they were so far over the cap including Michael Bush, Kamerion Wimbley and Stanford Routt. They also didn't add much in the draft- because of acquiring Carson Palmer and Terrell Pryor, their first pick was 95th in the draft, yikes. So to recap, their Defense was terrible and is getting worse. Their Offense was alright but lost their leading rusher and is counting on the likes of Carson Palmer, Darren McFadden, and Darrius Heyward-Bay to remain injury free and productive. The schedule doesn't help either. In addition to Denver, KC, and San Diego, the Raiders have cross country trips @Miami, @Atl, @Balt, @Cincy, and @Carolina. The home slate has winnable games against Jax and Cleveland but also includes New Orleans and TB (who I already said I thought would be better). The Raiders have years to go to clean up the mess Al Davis left with no emotional boost from his departure. I can see 4 wins as pretty likely, and at +1600, I think a pretty good argument could be made for the worst overall record as well.
The Juice’s Take: I am ready to drink the haterade in Oakland. Hard to see any upside for this team, unless it’s the weak division. If KC really sucks, Manning gets injured, or SD falls apart as I suggested above, the Raiders could go 3-3 or 4-2 in the division. Then all it takes is a couple other teams fucking up (Miami, NO, Pitt) and a couple wins against Cle, TB, Cin, or Car, and you’re in trouble. I think that’s a lot of “ifs” though, and I like the bet. Especially getting 16-1 for worst record. There are teams more likely to be worse, but none with better odds.
$10.00 $11.00 Football Futures - College Regular Season Wins Over 7½ Wins +110 for Iowa Reg Season Wins
This last one is college football bonus. Yeah, I realize this is a homer pick since I live in Iowa now, but I actually have some good logic backing it up. They lack depth at WR and RB, but have a senior QB and are expecting a breakout season from the TE. Throw in some different looks from new Offensive Coordinator Greg Davis and UI should be a little more difficult to prepare for. The non-conference schedule is not bad. The Hawkeyes start out playing Norther Illinois @ Soldier Field (might as well be a home game) then have Iowa State, Northern Iowa, and Central Michigan at home. That looks no worse than 3-1 with a good chance at 4-0. The Conference slate at home isn't terrible with Minnesota, Penn State, Purdue and Nebraska coming to Iowa City. While road games @Mich and @MSU will be tough, the road schedule also includes Indiana and Northwestern. I think there rage is probably 7-5 on the low end but more likely 8-4 or 9-3 with a slim chance at 10-2. Either way, I like the Hawks to come through now that they are flying a bit under the radar.
The Juice’s Take: This is a great bet. We know PSU will suck, and I don’t like Nebraska or Michigan nearly as much as their rankings suggest. Really, only Michigan State seems unwinnable. This team could easily win 10 games, and I think 9 is very likely. I see a bowl game for Iowa, and a win for the Doc.
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