Week 11 Picks

DP: I got crushed last week so it’s probably best that I don't try to over think things. I was gone Monday and Tuesday and will be gone again Thursday and Friday so here my picks with a quick impression of each game.

NY Jets (-4.5) vs DENVER

DP: I suspect that people will try to over analyze this game with BS about the Jets on the road at altitude on a short week and that Tim Tebow's unorthodox offense is hard to plan for and will negate the Jets biggest strength (pass defense). I say that's all BS. The Jets are better and are desperate for a win.

TJ: Tebow had some highlights last week, but Sexy Rexy will have a field day putting 9 guys in the box and forcing bad passes with his ball-hawking corners waiting to pounce.  I don’t think John Fox is creative enough to utilize Tebow properly, and the Jets will jump all over the vanilla bullshit Denver tries.  Pick: Jets.

WASHINGTON (+7.5) vs Dallas

DP: 7 points is a lot for an up and down team like Dallas to cover on the road against a division opponent.

TJ: I disagree.  Dallas is finding their stride, and Washington is in turmoil (again).  Shannahan has lost any semblance of control he once had, and I expect Dallas’s new-found running game (with DeMarco Murray in front) to establish itself early.  Pick: Dallas.

DETROIT (-7.5) vs Carolina

DP: I look for Detroit to bounce back and handle a Carolina team that is struggling a bit.

TJ:  Yeah, Detroit’s offense will get healthy against a poor Carolina D, and their defensive line will pressure Newton into some bad throws.  I’m picking a lot of favorites, but some of these dogs just stink.

Tampa Bay (+14.5) vs GREEN BAY

DP: Historically you make money if you take 14 points. This just feels like an ugly sloppy game that will be closer than it should be.

TJ:  I’m sticking with the philosophy that has served me well for a few weeks now: I’m picking Green Bay until they lose outright, no matter how high the lines creep.  Tampa has fallen off a cliff, but even if they hadn’t, there’s no team I’m taking against the Packers right now.  Pick: Pack.

MINNESOTA (+1.5) vs Oakland

DP: Just a gut hunch that Oakland screws up their chances to win the division.

TJ:  I think Jared Allen is drooling over the prospect of jacking up Carson Palmer as he stands immobile in the pocket with nobody coming open, but I also think the Minny offense just has no bullets at all in the gun.  I think Oakland won’t need to score too much to win this one.  Pick: Raiders.

Buffalo (+2.5) vs MIAMI

DP: This may be the game that cures me of my strange Buffalo love.

TJ:  Nah, Fred Jackson will get back on track this week and Buffalo will make us forget about their drubbing in Dallas last week.  Pick: Bills.

CLEVELAND (+0.5) vs Jacksonville

DP: I love to take home teams that lost the week before against road teams that won the week before. I should probably get some statistics to back this up.

TJ:  Now that the Browns have ruined any chance of making the playoffs, they’ll go on a little win streak just to torture their fans.  Happens every fucking year.  Pick: Browns.

Cincinnati (+7.5) vs BALTIMORE

DP: Sticking with the theory that Cincy isn't terrible and that it’s tough to cover more than 7 against a good division opponent.

TJ:  I think both these teams are schizophrenic, and I have no idea who will actually win, so I’m taking the points.  Pick: Bengals.

Arizona (+9.5) vs SAN FRANCISCO

DP: Meh? Feels like about the right time for a San Fran let down.

TJ:  They’re 8-1, at home, and playing a truly terrible team and even worse quarterback?  Shit, the line can’t get high enough.  Pick: 49ers.

ST. LOUIS (-1.5) vs Seattle

DP: Essentially a coin flip game, I took the home team that only needs 2 to cover.

TJ:  The last three weeks, the Rams have won two games and taken the third to OT.  On the other side, the ‘Skanks beat the damn Ravens last week, so I don’t know what to think.  I’ll follow the Doc.  Pick: Rams.

ATLANTA (-5.5) vs Tennessee

DP: Feels like a bad match-up for Tenn.

TJ:  I think the Titans showed last week they can get back to the run-oriented offense and tight defense that characterized them throughout the Fisher era.  If they play Carolina every week.  The Falcons have a top 5 rushing defense and their offense is rounding into form.  I think the roll the Titans at home.  Pick: Dirty Birds.

CHICAGO (-3.5) vs San Diego

DP: This seems like an obvious set up game, so why am I still taking Chicago? Oh wait don't over think things.

TJ:  Chicago has figured things out, and San Diego is teetering on the brink.  I can’t take Rivers to carry the team on the road against a great-again defense and an emerging running game.  Pick: Bears.

NY GIANTS (-3.5) vs Philadelphia

DP: Another set up game. Isn't NY Giants at home way better than a Philly team with Michael Vick and 2 bum ribs? Oh shit, I'm over thinking things again.

TJ:  Philly has thrown in the towel.  The Giants have a chance to take a strangle-hold on the Division, and I think they’ll do it.  Pick: Giants.

NEW ENGLAND (-14.5) vs Kansas City

DP: OK, I am going to break my own rule about always taking 2 TDs mostly because it will be to someone named Tyler Panko to try and score for KC.

TJ:  KC has been killed by every good team they played, and some shitty teams, too.  Remember their four-game win streak?  It was against Minny, Indy, Oakland, and San Diego.  Not exactly a murderer’s row.  Their next five games?  NE, Pitt, Chicago, NYJ, and Green Bay.  They will win exactly none of those games.  And they’ll start it off by getting embarrassed by the Patriots.  Pick: Pats.

Week 10 Picks

As we enter the second half of the season, picking these games gets so much easier because now we know who the good teams are, right? Colts, Chargers, Eagles, all the teams that are always guaranteed to make the playoffs. Oh, wait, those teams suck, the Bengals, 49ers and Lions look like world-beaters, Belichick can’t draft or recognize talent, and the best running back in the league plays for Buffalo and went to Coe College? Right. Fuck it, let’s pick anyway.-TJ

SAN DIEGO (-7.5) vs. Oakland
TJ: Believe it or not, these teams are in a three-way tie with KC for the lead in the AFC West, and Denver is only a game behind. Oakland’s lost a couple in a row, both in the division, Palmer is playing like Palmer, and McFadden has been ruled out again this week. Lots of reasons not to like them, but I still think they have enough fight to give the Chargers a good game. Pick: Raiders.
DP: One of these teams will get a much needed win. Oakland has two straight bad home losses (shut out by KC and Tebow's Denver). Meanwhile the Chargers have lost three straight to @Jets, @Chiefs, and Packers. The Chargers have been much more competitive in their losses and they can still move the ball on offense. I like the Chargers

DALLAS (-5.5) vs. Buffalo
TJ: It’s not that I dislike Buffalo, but the Jets showed exactly how to shut them down, and Rob Ryan will learn from watching Rex’s game film and use the same strategy (play man coverage on the Bills’ sub-par receivers, stack the box to stifle the run, and pressure Fitzpatrick into picks). Dallas has only lost one game at home this year (a close one to Detroit), and I like them to run away with this one. Pick: ‘Boys.
DP: Easiest pick of the week for me. I love the Bills here. Buffalo thrives against turnover prone teams with weak passing defenses. The Cowboys have both. In addition, Dallas is a mentally weak team with a tendency to look ahead. I am sure they are looking at Buff, @Redskins, and Miami (Thanksgiving) and are thinking they are going to get 3 wins and be looking at 7-4 with a Dec 4 game @ Arizona for 8-4. One thing at a time! Pick: Bills to win outright.

Arizona (+12.5) vs. PHILADELPHIA
TJ: Philly is inconsistent, no longer has a shot at the playoffs, and is giving up 12.5. I just have to take the points here. Pick: Cards.
DP: Arizona may be 2-6 but they only have one loss >12.5 points. Their three games against quality teams (Giants, Ravens and Steelers) were all < 12.5. The Eagles have 2 wins > 12.5. I'll take the points. Pick: Cards

TAMPA BAY (+3.5) vs. Houston
TJ: Houston still hasn’t convinced me. All the Bucs’ losses are to quality opponents, and I think Freeman may have something left in the tank. I like the home dog here. Pick: Bucs.
DP: Houston may be 6-3, but 4 of those wins were Indy, Miami, Jax, and Cleveland. They are 2-3 against teams 0.500 or better (1-2 on the road). Tampa Bay's 4 losses at Detroit, @San Fran, Chicago, and @New Orleans. They home wins against Atlanta and New Orleans. I'll happily take the points. Pick: Bucs

ATLANTA (+0.5) vs. New Orleans
TJ: Another home dog I like, even if it’s only half a point. Atlanta’s on a three-game win streak, including a big on in Detroit, and though Ryan and Turner have been wildly inconsistent, their overall productivity has been good and should only get better over the next three weeks (all home games). I think Atlanta wins this game, takes a choke-hold on the NFC South, and finishes 11-5. Pick: Birds.
DP: Fuck who knows? Pick: Saints

Tennessee (+3.5) vs. CAROLINA
TJ: You heard it here first, kids: this is Chris Johnson’s breakout game. I predict 27 attempts for 145 yards and 2 TDs, plus 5 receptions for another 40 yards and a TD. Meanwhile, Newton throws a couple of picks, including a pick-six, and the Panthers never escape from an early hole. It’s that easy. Pick: Titans.
DP: Two teams that I have harbored crushes on this season go against each other. I like Carolina's balanced offense to win at home against a one dimensional Titans team (32nd in rushing). Pick: Panthers.

Jacksonville (-3.5) vs. INDIANAPOLIS
TJ: The pooperbowl. Will Indy pull a Miami and surprise everyone with a blowout of a poor team to get off the shnide? No. Not at all. Pick: Jags.
DP: Just a Gawd awful game. This may be a reverse jinx, but the Colts fan in me worries that they blow the only silver lining of the season (the draft) by winning a meaningless game here. I will submit some evidence though. Indy gets killed by passing teams with speed (see Atlanta and New Orleans). Jax has the 32nd ranked passing offense so I doubt they run up the score. The Jags are 0-4 on the road and have scored 3, 10, 13, and 14 points in those games). I think Indy can muster just enough offense to win 17-16. Pick: Indy

Washington (+3.5) vs. MIAMI
TJ: Miami’s blowout win was a fluke. Even so, were it not for a couple of field goals, they could be riding a three-game win streak right now. I think I’m going to stay away from John Beck on the road, and take Miami to play themselves out of the Andrew Luck sweepstakes. Pick: Miami.
DP: Everyone is going to pick Miami here but why? Because Washington has looked bad the last few weeks and Miami won last week convincingly at KC? My gut feeling though is that these two teams are fairly evenly matched and Miami has no home field advantage. I’ll take the 3.5 points and promptly forget about this game entirely. Pick: Redskins

Pittsburgh (-3.5) vs. CINCINNATI
TJ: Both these teams have played very well over the past five weeks, with Cincy undefeated and Pittsburgh’s only loss a close one to the Ravens last week. Cincy’s defense appears predicated on stopping the run and getting lucky with turnovers (they’ve recovered 9 out of the 10 fumbles they forced this year- a ridiculous stat). They can stop Pittsburgh’s run, but I can’t see them shutting down Roethlisberger, and I can’t see them scoring more than 17 against this Steelers’ D. Pick: Steelers.
DP: Its a good time to bet on Cincy. I think everyone will assume that the Steelers will bounce back after a tough loss to the Ravens and the Bengals will be the Bengals. But I will gladly take the team with a good defense (10th against pass and 2nd against the run) getting points at home. Pick: Bengals.

CLEVELAND (-2.5) vs. St. Louis
TJ: They both suck, so I’ll go with my heart (and the home-field advantage). Pick: Browns.
DP: St. Louis is showing signs of life after a horrendous start. I like them to go into Cleveland and win outright. Pick: Rams

Denver (+3.5) vs. KANSAS CITY
TJ: I’ve been down on KC forever, and that embarrassing loss to Miami only confirmed my instincts: the Chiefs are not for real. I like the points, the Denver defense, and God to help Tebow pull out another win and extend his tenure as the worst starting QB in the NFL (and that’s saying something this year!). Pick: Broncos.
DP: KC is still tough at home and have something to prove after last week’s embarrassing home loss. Pick: Chiefs

SEATTLE (+6.5) vs. Baltimore
TJ: Seattle plays tough at home, and the Ravens have got to be worn out after that slug-fest in Pittsburgh. This is a classic letdown game, and I like getting almost a touchdown here. Pick: Seaskanks.
DP: At 6.5, I am sure a lot of people will talk themselves into taking Seahawks with the Ravens going across the country to play a classic ‘let down’ game. Not me. I put money on the boys from Baltimore who already had one let down game this year @Jax. I think they learned their lesson. Pick: Ravens.

Detroit (+2.5) vs. CHICAGO
TJ: Chicago is another team that could suffer a letdown after an important road win in Philly. However, I think the Lions have to come back to earth, and that Bears defense is going to put a lot of pressure on Stafford to cover for the Lions’ weakened running game. This should be a tough game, and the line seems just about right to me. I’m going to take the Lions and the points here, but I won’t be shocked if Chicago wins by a field goal to break my heart. Pick: Lions.
DP: I took Detroit based solely on the match-up. Chicago struggles against teams with good defensive lines. Pick: Lions

SAN FRANCISCO (-3.5) vs. NY Giants
TJ: I really want to take the 49ers in this game, but the Giants have quality wins over Buffalo and New England in the last three weeks. They seem to play to the level of their opponents, though (see the 20-17 win over Miami), and they haven’t played a defense of San Fran’s caliber yet this year (the best D they played this year has been Washington, and they were held to 14 points and lost). I’m going to go with my gut and take the 49ers to take advantage of some Giants’ mistakes and win at home here. Pick: 49ers.
DP: The 49ers can run the ball (6th) and defend the run (1st). I like that combination to work against the Giants who are due for a down week. Pick: 49ers

NY JETS (-1.5) vs. New England
TJ: I’ve lost faith in the Patriots’ offense. It’s too one-dimensional. And their defense has been atrocious. As much as I hate the Sanchize, even he can play well against a Patriots’ secondary that doesn’t have a single player that could start for LSU right now. The Jets shut down Buffalo last week, and their offense is decent, so I can’t see a way to take the Pats. Pick: Jets.
DP: I have no fucking clue about these teams. Up week 7, I would have put the Pats as a big favorite to win the AFC and the Jets to miss the play-offs. Since Week 7 though the Pats have been man handled by the Steelers and Giants and the Jets have solid wins over San Diego and Buffalo. The Pats have the best passing offense and worst passing in the league. When they face teams with good defensive lines (like the Giants and Steelers) their shaky defense gets exposed. Luckily for them, its unlikely that Mark Sanchez will light them up. So who wins? These two teams hate each other and will be motivated. I think it will a close, hard fought game. The Jets who are 4-0 at home compared to New England who is 2-2 on the road. At -1.5 I’ll forget about points and just take the home team to win. Pick: Jets

GREEN BAY (-13.5) vs. Minnesota
TJ: Green Bay is favored by a ton every week, and they’re still 6-2 against the spread this year, so they seem like a good pick. They average 34.4 points per game (1st on the league), and Minny averages 21.5 (20th). However, the Vikes played the Pack close a few weeks ago (33-27 final), and they’re coming off a bye week. Also, the Pack gave up 38 to the Chargers last week. Man, I could talk myself back and forth on this game all day. Screw it, Green Bay rolls at home. Pick: Pack.
DP: Is there anything that could make Green Bay more frightening? Actually there is. After 9 weeks, the Packers have only played 3 home games. The closest game was an 8 point win over New Orleans on opening night. The other games were 26 and 21 point blow outs. They do have road games @Detroit and @Giants, but their remaining home games after this week are Tampa Bay, Oakland, Chicago. I think we wake up Tuesday morning after a blow-out win and to start hearing the 16-0 talk. Someone find Mercury Morris. Pick: Pack.

Week 9 Picks

The NFL has moved into the middle part of the season where teams look ahead or lose focus and weird upsets happen (I'm looking at your New Orleans). The Doc managed to escape at 6-7 but the Juice took a pounding (3-10). On to this weeks games where the Doc likes to go against public opinion!

DALLAS (-12.5) vs. Seattle

TJ:  I expect a big bounce-back from the Cowboys after an embarrassing loss to the Eagles last week, and getting Seattle at home will make it a lot easier.  The Eagles have the #1 rush offense in the league, and Seattle is 31^st, so I think the Cowboys’ D will have an easier time containing and scheming this week.  Also, The Cowboys’ love to pressure the QB, and since Seattle can’t run and has Tarvaris Jackson (or even Charlie Whitehurst) under center, this could get ugly.  I expect a big game from DeMarco Murray as well, especially if Dallas jumps out to an early lead.  Pick: Cowboys.

DP:  I have been wrong about Seattle almost every week so feel free to go against me. Dallas is the kind of talented but poorly coached team that blows out bad teams (Vs. St Louis) but then comes up short against against teams (Vs Jets, Loins and Eagles). I wouldn't be at all surprised to see them blow out the Seahawks, but I don't feel good enough to swallow 12.5 points. Pick: Seattle

San Francisco (-3.5) vs. WASHINGTON
TJ:  So I guess five wins in a row make San Fran the real thing, especially with the road win in Detroit and the shellacking of Tampa Bay.  Since Washington is such a mess (three losses in a row, no running game to speak of and [surprise!] a QB controversy), I expect the 49ers to overcome jet lag and roll easily.  Pick: 49ers.

DP:  A 3.5 line suggests that San Francisco is barely better than Washington which is clearly not the case. When the line skews this low it suggests that Vegas is willing to accept more money on the 49ers. Washington has looked terrible the last two weeks and has had some bad luck, but these things tend to even out over time. The 49ers are on the road in an early game and have a big game at home against the Giants next week. The Redskins are desperate and their defense isn't terrible so they should be able force Alex Smith to make some plays. I like the Redskins to keep with close with a late FG deciding the game. Pick: Skins.

Tampa Bay (+8.5) vs. NEW ORLEANS
TJ:  This spread seems high to me, even if Tampa is on the road.  I mean, I know I shouldn’t be reactionary, but that St. Louis loss suggests that the Saints shouldn’t be 8.5 point favorites over anybody right now, I don’t care where they’re playing.  The Bucs lost badly to San Fran in Week 5, but their two other losses were close, and they beat the Saints by 6 three weeks ago, so I think I’m happy to take the points here.  Pick: Bucs.

DP:  This is a bit shocking to me as Tampa won this same match-up a few weeks ago at home. These teams are not that far apart to justify 8.5 points. Games within the Division are usually closer and lower scoring which also doesn't favor a blow-out. New Orleans may win, but I don't feel good about a cover. Pick: Bucs.

NY Jets (+1.5) vs. BUFFALO
TJ:  This is a really important game for both teams.  A win for the Bills puts them in the drivers’ seat for a Wild Card, and keeps the pressure on New England for the division lead.  A win for the Jets gets them back in the mix, but a loss makes it really tough for them to earn a playoff spot.  The Bills have had a great season, with their two losses by a combined total of only six points, and their rushing game is convincingly good.  The Jets, on the other hand, have had an anemic offense all year, and are 0-3 on the road.  This is a tough one, but I’m going to give up the points and trust the Sanchize to fuck up down the stretch.  Pick: Bills.

DP:  No one gives the Bills much credit. They are 5-2 and tied for the Division lead but only get 1.5 points against the Jets. The Jets season is pretty much on the line this week @Bills and next week vs. the Pats. Two loses their would put them at 4-5 and in serious jeopardy of missing the play-offs. I'll take the Jets here based solely on match-ups. The Jets have a good pass defense that I think can contain the Bills offense. The Bills have a high risk style of defense that feeds off of turnovers. If the Bills can't build a lead then the Jets can stay conservative on offense and grind out a win. Pick: Jets.

Atlanta (-7.5) vs. INDIANAPOLIS
TJ:  Atlanta had a convincing win against Detroit last week and seems to be back on track.  And I guess the smart move is to just give up on the Colts.  Their average margin of loss is over 16 points, and it’s 29 over the last three weeks.  I won’t take them again until they prove me wrong.  Pick: Falcons.

DP:  This is another line that feels a bit low. There are certainly things that are concerning about this game. The Falcons have a big show down with Division rival New Orleans next week, so this could be a classic 'caught looking ahead game'. Indy is probably not as bad as their road losses @New Orleans and @Tenn would suggest. I'll take the Birds, but I am definitely worried about. Pick: Falcons.

KANSAS CITY (-5.5) vs. Miami
TJ:  Yes, KC has won four in a row, but the quality of opponents in those four wins has been pretty poor (combined record of 10-20).  Fortunately for them, Miami is just as bad as KC’s other recent competition, so I expect their streak to continue.  In fact, only giving up 5.5 at home seems like a real steal to me!  Pick: KC.

DP: KC has climbed back into the play-off race after losing their first 3 games so I don't they will lose focus or take Miami for granted. I like KC's ground game to carry them to a solid victory. Pick: Chiefs.

Cleveland (+10.5) vs. HOUSTON
TJ:  My Brownies are pretty bad, I can’t deny it, but, at least at first, Houston seems a little overvalued here as 10.5 point favorites.  They only beat Miami and Jacksonville by 10 each.  However, after I started looking at the Browns’ offensive stats (averaging under 11 points in their last four games) and comparing them to Houston’s (averaging almost 25 over the same span), I have to admit that this line seems about right.  In Houston, I guess I have to take the Texans to cover.  Pick: Texans.

DP: Another contrarian pick. Cleveland might not be great, but they have only lost by more than 10 points once this season. Their passing defense is pretty good which will encourage Houston to run the ball and speed up the game. I like Cleveland to hang tough until the end and cover. Pick: Browns

Cincinnati (+2.5) vs. TENNESSEE
TJ:  Wait, didn’t Tennessee let Houston hang 41 on them a couple weeks ago?  And isn’t Cincy on a four-game winning streak?  I don’t really like either of these teams, but I think getting the 2.5 is enough to convince me to take Cincy.  Pick: Bengals.

DP: I like the match-up for Tenn and think Cincy is due for a letdown in between a big road win @ Seattle last week and the Steelers at home next week. Pick: Titans. 

OAKLAND (-7.5) vs. Denver
TJ:  Two teams with serious QB issues.  I thought the Raiders might not be too much of a trainwreck, but that shutout by the Chiefs in Week 7 was terrible.  Here’s hoping the bye week was enough to get Carson Palmer up to speed!  Pick: Raiders.

DP: This line opened at 7.5 and was quickly bet up to 10 on the off-shore books when Tim Tebow was announced as the starter. So why am I going for the Broncos? Well don't forget Oakland has its own QB problems (the Kyle Boller/Carson Palmer combination at 6 INTs the last time we saw them). I expect a lot of running plays and a low scoring game. Plus I would't be shocked to see Brady Quinn or Kyle Orten if Tim Tebow gets off to a slow start. I think this one is going to low scoring and ugly so I'll take the points and hope for the best. Pick: Broncos

ARIZONA (-4.5) vs. St. Louis
TJ:  Last week had to be an aberration for the Rams.  They were averaging 9 points per game in their previous six games, then hung 31 on the Saints!  This week, they’re on the road, but they’re playing against an even worse defense: the Cards rank 29^th in points allowed, and give up a ton of passing yards.  The Cards’ collapse against the Ravens last week was terrible, but I still think they’re a better team than St. Louis.  I keep talking myself out of both teams, so I’m just going to go with my gut.  Pick: Cardinals.

DP: The Rams aren't as good as they looked last week and the Cardinals are at home. I'll stick with the Birds. Pick: Cardinals

NY Giants (+8.5) vs. NEW ENGLAND
TJ:  Everybody thinks the recipe for beating the Patriots is throw all day on their inexperienced, crappy secondary.  Know what?  It may just be that easy.  The Giants have an above average passing attack, and a good pass defense of their own, so I think they might be able to duplicate what the Steelers and Bills did to the Pats.  I’m going to take the points here, and hope Eli doesn’t screw the pooch.  Pick: Giants.

DP: This is a big spread but I like New England to cover it at home. The Giants don't have the passing game to exploit the weak New England secondary and I expect Billy B to have something special saved up for SuperBowl 42 pay back. Pick: Giants

Green Bay (-5.5) vs. SAN DIEGO
TJ:  I’m through backing San Diego.  They’re unreliable chumps.  Green Bay is the only consistent team in the league, and I think their defense will only get better.  Pick: Packers.

DP: This is my craziest pick of the week. Vegas is BEGGING you to take Green Bay. I think the Chargers have a better match-up though. The Chargers can pass (6th overall) and defend the pass (4th overall). The Packers can certainly pass (3rd overall) but are weak against the pass (31st). The Chargers are at home and stinging from two tough road losses (@Jets and @Chiefs). It feels for the right time of the season for a let down from the Packers who are coming off a Bye and are looking forward to home game against Division rival Minnesota. Pick: Chargers.

PITTSBURGH (-3.5) vs. Baltimore
TJ:  I love Pittsburgh at home here.  The Ravens offense has slipped.  Their defense is good, but it’s been inflated by playing weak teams with shitty QB’s (Kolb, Shaub, Sanchez, Bradford, Hasselbeck, and Gabbert in their last six games).  Their week 1 win over the Steelers was a fluke.  Pittsburgh has gotten healthy, and their defense was legitimized by the win over New England last week.  Pick: Steelers.

DP: Baltimore has looked like shit the last two weeks. Meanwhile, Pitt had a huge win over New England and probably wants some revenge for the Week 1 blowout by Baltimore in Week 1. I'll throw all of that out though as I expect a tough, low scoring game decided by a FG. Pick: Ravens.

PHILADELPHIA (-7.5) vs. Chicago

TJ:  Doesn’t it just feel like Philly is ready to roll off a long winning streak and make everyone regret the doomsday shit from the first six weeks?  I think it’s possible that Reid will actually use McCoy correctly.  The question is, can the Philly D slow down Forte?  I’m guessing the Eagles will build a lead that forces Chicago to pass, then rack up a few sacks on Cutler while Forte doesn’t get the touches he needs.  Pick: Eagles.

DP: Who knows what the hell will happen here, but it feels like a bad match-up for the Bears who have had trouble with fast teams like New Orleans, Green Bay and Detroit. Pick: Eagles.

Week 8 Picks

TJ: Good season picking games for the Doc and I so far: I'm 56-47, the Doc is 55-48.  We've each won our office pool and are in the black on the year so far.  On the flip side, Cleveland is terrible, and the Colts are worse.  If I didn't love football so much, I'd really hate it.  On to the picks!

Miami (+9.5) vs NY GIANTS (-9.5) 

DP: I can't find a single reason to pick Miami. They are 1-5 ATS, they have concerns at QB, they are on the verge of firing their coach and tanking the season. The Giants are 4-1 since starting the season with a loss to the Redskins. Eli Manning is protecting the ball (101 rating 11 TD to 4 INT) and the Giants are getting a bunch of players back. Whenever the things look this one sided, the Doc has learned to curb his baser instincts and take the Dog. Pick: Dolphins

TJ:  Matt Moore on the road?  Tuck and Jacobs back in the lineup for the Giants?  The Giants haven’t scored less than 27 in their last five games and Miami hasn’t scored more than 16?  Sounds like a recipe for a blowout.  I’ll give up the points.  Pick: Giants.

CAROLINA (-3.5) vs Minnesota

DP: I'm not sure why everyone is sleeping on this Panthers team, they are undoubtedly the best 2-5 team in the league. They have a potent offense (5th pass, 8th rush) and a decent pass defense (12th). 4 of their losses came to Green Bay, Chicago, Atlanta, and New Orleans, which are good teams. They handled Washington last week at home and Washington is probably better than Minny. As for Minny, I know they put up a fight against the Pack last week, but now they have a rookie QB on the road in his second start. Pick: Panthers.

TJ: Minnesota ranks 29^th against the pass, and Cam Newton has been racking up yards.  On the flip side, Peterson has the Vikings with the 3^rd best rushing offense in the league (pretty amazing for a 1-6 team that perpetually plays from behind), and the Panthers are 29^th against the rush.  These teams dovetail in a way that makes me think there could be some serious scoring.  Unless they have 5 turnovers each, another distinct possibility for such undisciplined, crappy ball clubs.  I think I have to take Carolina at home, and hope the Vikings pass rush and secondary continues to underperform, and that Ponder can find a way to blow the game, even with limited attempts.  Pick: Panthers.

New Orleans (-12.5) vs ST. LOUIS

DP: The Doc hates picking these games with big spreads. Who wants to give 12.5 on the road? But St. Louis is so terrible. The Rams haven't scored more than 16 points in a game. The Saints haven't scored fewer and 20. This will probably be one of those crap last minute covers by St. Louis, but that’s better than watching the Saints blow out the Rams by 30 in the first half and wondering what the fuck I was thinking. Pick: Saints.

TJ: Jesus, Doc, you really broke out the self-loathing and pessimism on that analysis.  How ‘bout I turn it around and say: ain’t it fun to root for a team to just keep epically sucking?  The Rams are averaging 9 points per game.  Over 6 fucking games!  That’s historically shitty.  The Saints are averaging 34 points per game, and have scored in bunches against much better defenses than St. Louis (they put 34 on Green Bay, 30 on Chicago, and 40 on a Houston team that gave up only 15 per game to the other 6 teams it played).  I don’t know if this game will approach the 62-7 rectum-wrecking the Saints gave the Colts last week, but I think I’ll give up the 12.5 anyway.  Pick: Saints.

Arizona (+12.5) vs BALTIMORE

DP: Best not to over react too much to one terrible loss. I still like Baltimore and I really like them to rebound at home. Pick: Ravens

TJ: OK, Arizona could only manage 10 points against Seattle and Minnesota on the road, so I know they aren’t going to light-up the scoreboard in Baltimore.  So, the question becomes: can Baltimore’s offense get its collective head out of its collective ass and score 28 points against Arizona?  They’ve done it in all four of their wins this year, and those came against decent defenses including Pittsburgh and the Jets.  After the travesty in Jacksonville last week, Harbaugh admitted that Ray Rice needs more touches, and Arizona’s average run defense (ranked 14^th) shouldn’t be able to stop him if he gets rolling.  I’m guessing an early pick-six or fumble recovery deep in Arizona territory will give Baltimore’s offense the cushion it needs to focus on the running game and take care of business handily.  Pick: Ravens.

Indianapolis (+9.5) vs TENNESSEE

DP: Once again, best not to over react to one week. The Saints were a bad match-up and I knew that that asshole Sean Payton would run up the score. Indy had been playing better under Curtis Painter and games against division foes are always closer than you think. Tenn slops to an ugly win 17-12. Pick: Indy

TJ:  What’s the sure cure for Chris Johnson’s crappy start to the season?  Playing the Colts!  His 2.9 yards per carry will get bumped up by a 32 attempts for 160 yards and 2 TD’s line.  Tennessee has the worst rush defense in the league, but since Indy has no running game to exploit that weakness, and I see them falling behind early anyway, this should be a rout for the Titans, and get them back in the race for the division.  Pick: Titans.

HOUSTON (-9.5) vs Jacksonville

DP: Jax is averaging 12 points a game. That means they would need to hold Houston to 21 points or under on the road. Not Likely. Pick: Texans.

TJ:  I know I love to hate on Jacksonville, but their defense showed a real spark against the (admittedly inept) Ravens offense last week.  Unfortunately, their offense looked about as bad as Baltimore’s, and there’s no reason to expect it to improve much against Houston.  As the Doc said, it comes down to whether Houston can score.  Here, I disagree with the Doc, and I’m going to take the points.  Pick: Jags.

BUFFALO (-5.5) vs Washington

DP: The Bills, who live off of interceptions, say hello John Beck and Jabar Gaffney. I like the high scoring Bills to get a lead and then feed of a desperate Redskins team that is trying to catch up. Pick: Bills.

TJ:  No homefield for the Bills in Toronto, and that defense the Doc said thrives on turnovers is also ranked 30^th against both the run and the pass.  Aside from week 1 against the Chief, the Bills’ victories have been by an average of only 4 points.  The Redskins have a surprisingly decent defense, only giving up more than 20 points once this year, although they haven’t played a lot of great offenses.  I’m a little torn here, but I just don’t trust the Bills to blow the Redskins out, so even though I think the Bills will win outright, I’m going to take the points.  Pick: Redskins.

Detroit (-0.5) vs DENVER

DP: I would love to get the Lions at -0.5. Most of the books are -3.5. I can't wait for Suh vs. Tebow. Whose side is Karma going to be on? Pick: Lions

TJ: Tebow is going to get Tebowned by the Lions’ D.  This one could get out of hand.  Pick: Lions.

SAN FRANCISCO (-9.5) vs Cleveland

DP: The Browns fans will have to 'savor' their 6-3 victory against the Seaskanks last week because I don't like their chances going West. Pick: Browns.

TJ:  I really want to like Cleveland here, especially with the points, but that 49ers defense is stout, and I think we’ve seen the best we’re going to see from the Browns this year.  Unless Alex Smith finds a way to hand Cleveland the game (and I don’t think Harbaugh will let him), this should be a blowout for San Fran.  Pick: Niners.

PITTSBURGH (+2.5) vs New England

DP: This game opened at +4 so that line move means the early money is on Pitt. I really like Pitt at +4 at home, but I can live with +2.5. The Steelers have enough of a passing game to counter punch New England's passing attack. Pick: Steelers

TJ: The Steelers D has been looking like it’s back to its old form.  Take away the week 1 clusterfuck against the Ravens, and Pittsburgh has given up under 15 points per game and never more than 20.  But look a little deeper: the opponents in those six games were Seattle, Indy, Houston, Tennessee, Jacksonville, and Arizona.  Those teams only score 18 points per game on average, and 5 out of 6 of them are in the bottom third of the league in points scored (Houston is the exception at 7^th in the league).  I think Pittsburgh’s defense isn’t all that good, and they’ve lost to the only two quality teams they’ve played this year, Houston and Baltimore.  New England has the best passing offense in the league, and I think they’ll be taking this game very seriously.  I like them to win big.  Pick: Pats.

SEATTLE (+2.5) vs Cincinnati

DP: For some reason, I love Seattle in this game. They are much tougher at home (this is only their 3rd home game so far) and the Bengals just don't seem like a team with the mental toughness to cover on the road in a tough stadium. 

TJ:  Yeah, I’m still not convinced by Cincy, and I like Seattle at home.  Cincy is another team whose record is deceptive, as 3 of their 4 wins come against Cleveland, Jacksonville, and Indy, and their defensive rankings have been inflated by inept opposing offenses.  Pick: Skanks.

Dallas (+3.5) vs PHILADELPHIA

DP: Another game I love. I just have a weird feeling that Dallas is turning things around. They are playing better than Philly, Division games are tough and tight, and they are getting 3.5 points. Pick: 'Boys

TJ: This is a make-or-break game for Philly, but not for Dallas.  Normally, I would think that home team in a must-win game would have an advantage, but I’m not sure Philly will pull together under that pressure.  There have been some red flags regarding their team chimstry of late, and The Cowboys’ defense may be spoiling for a chance to get at Vick.  I’m with the Doc on this one.  Pick: ‘Boys.

San Diego (-3.5) vs KANSAS CITY

DP: I love to pick teams with a tough loss last week (Chargers) vs. a team with a nice win the week before (KC). People tend to over react on both sides so I think you get a little value here with a San Diego team that can pass (7th) and defend the pass (3rd) against a KC team that can't pass (30th) is only so-so defending the pass (17th). Pick: Chargers

TJ: Hey, KC, you’re excited about your 3-game winning streak, huh?  Well, let me let you in on a little secret: Minny, Indy, and Oakland aren’t exactly a murderers’ row.  KC got their asses kicked by Buffalo and Detroit, and the Chargers have already beaten them once this year.  The Chargers may only be 4-2, but their only losses are to the Pats and Jets on the road.  They are a much better team than KC, and this should be an ass-kicking.  Pick: Chargers.

Week 7 Picks

The Doc made a strong come back last week finishing 10-3. He is now back above 0.500 and only one behind The Juice for the season.

The Doc doesn't like his chances this week. He has poured over the games and can only find one Dog that doesn't terrify him. The Doc sees a future of watching 12 favorites all try to cover. Yeah, its not gonna be pretty.

DETROIT (-3.5) vs Atlanta

DP: I feel like Atlanta is a bit overvalued coming off a win and going on the road. The Lions certainly have their own issues, but I still feel like they are a quality team and are a good match-up for a finesse Atlanta team. Pick: Lions

TJ: I disagree.  I think Atlanta got undervalued early because of a slow start, but they’re actually still a decent team and have a shot at the playoffs.  In fact, this game may have a lot to do with the Wild Card picture late in the season, as the Lions have little chance of beating the Packers for the division, and Atlanta is in a dogfight for the NFC South.  I like the points.  Pick: Falcons.

Chicago (-1.5) vs TAMPA BAY

DP: Vegas seems to be begging you to take Tampa, especially after a nice win against the Saints last week. The Doc doesn't see it though. Tampa's poor D-line play will prevent them from really taking advantage of the Bears shaky O-line. Pick: Bears

TJ:  Forte has proven himself a beast, and I like the Bears defense to disrupt any rhythm the Bucs can put together on O.  I think that shellacking by the 49ers was no fluke, and this Bucs team is vulnerable if they get behind early, since they have no big play potential and Freeman remains a game manager.  Pick: Bears.

CAROLINA (-2.5) vs Washington

DP: One of the few games I felt good enough to bet on this week. Carolina is rising fast and Washington seems to have some discord with the change at QB. Pick: Panthers

TJ: I think Shanahan has lost it.  I know Grossman isn’t the long-term solution, but they were winning with him (at least a few games), and now they’ve destroyed any confidence he had, and any confidence his teammates had in him.  All for John Beck?  What a clusterfuck.  I also like Newton to get back on track and pass for about 800 yards in a sloppy, high-scoring mess of a game.  Pick: Panthers.

Denver (+2.5) vs MIAMI

DP: The only Dog I took this week. I actually hope Miami wins, but I see Tim Tebow coming back to Florida and stealing a game. Pick: Broncos.

TJ: Miami sucks.  Lame duck coach, lame duck QB, no defense, just awful.  Denver ain’t great, especially since they traded away their best offensive player last week in Lloyd, but I agree that Tebow gives them a spark.  Unfortunately, the theory that he’ll have fans at the game is a mistake, as no one in Miami likes UF, they’re all fans of UM, and they hate Tebow.  Picking him to be the difference on the road is a tough call.  I’m only taking Denver because of the spread.  This will be a low-scoring crap-fest, and I like the points.  Pick: Broncos.

San Diego (-1.5) vs NY JETS

DP: I don't like either team frankly, but I think San Diego can score enough to win on the road. Pick: Chargers

TJ: I’m getting points at home with the Jets against a West-coast team?  Yes, please!  And the Jets don’t stink.  They’re in a slump, but they’re still above average.  I like the Chargers, especially since Matthews has come on strong at RB, but not enough to take them giving up points across country against a quality (and desperate) team.  Pick: Jets.

CLEVELAND (-2.5) vs Seattle

DP: I can't take the 'Hawks on the road. I just hope Colt McCoy has enough of a passing game to cover. Pick: Browns

TJ: The Doc is right.  Looks like Charlie Whitehurst is starting for the Seaskanks, and if you want me to back that dude on the road against an angry, underachieving Cleveland team, you must be crazy.  Pick: Browns.

TENNESSEE (-3.5) vs Houston

DP: The Doc is feeling pretty good about his Tenn +600 bet to win the AFC South. Without Mario Williams, I think the Tenn line gives Matt Hasselbeck enough time to throw down field. The Titans take a big step toward winning the Division. Pick: Titans

TJ:  I think there are two possible scenarios: Houston scores first and can use their running game to control the clock and wear out the Tennessee defense; Tennessee scores first, pressures Houston into passing, and wins in a rout.  They seem pretty equally likely to me, so I’ll just take the points.  Pick: Texans.

Pittsburgh (-3.5) vs ARIZONA

DP: Another game between inconsistent teams. Is it possible that Arizona cashes in on 5 Pitt turnovers to win the game? Possible, yes. But not likely. Pick: Pitt.

TJ:  Agreed, the only way for the Cardinals to win is for Pittsburgh to give them the game with turnovers and blown coverages.  Won’t happen this week.  Pick: Steelers.

OAKLAND (-3.5) vs Kansas City

DP: This is another head scratcher of a line. The home Raiders only giving 3.5 points (on some of the online books, the line is up to 6). I guess people are worried that Carson Palmer is rusty? I'll happily give the points and take the Raiders.

TJ: Yeah, there’s just nothing to like about that Chiefs team.  The Raiders have a great running game and a solid defense.  The QB situation won’t come into play, because the Chiefs can’t score enough to force the Raiders to pass.  Easy pick: Raiders.

DALLAS (-12.5) vs St. Louis

DP: Dallas is my choice for NFC sleeper right now (a team 0.500 or worse that could go to the Superbowl). They have had a surprisingly tough early schedule (Jets, 49ers, Redskins, Lions, Pats) and hung close in every game (no game decided by more than 4 points). They still have the Rams, Seahawks, Dolphins, and Cardinals on the schedule plus the inconsistent NFC East Eagles (2X), GIants (2X), and @Redskins. Their 'toughest' games are Buff and @Tampa. I think they finish 8-3 and win the Division at 10-6.

TJ:  I like the Doc’s analysis of the NFC East and the ‘Boy’s chances.  What about giving up 12.5 though?  I mean, man, that’s a big spread for a 2-3 team to cover.  The Rams picked up Brandon Lloyd to help the passing game, and I think they were better than their 0-5 record to begin with.  So the question is, is this a 35-28 Cowboys win, or a 31-10 Cowboys win?  Yeah, it’s hard to see St. Louis scoring 28.  Pick: Boys.

Green Bay (-8.5) vs MINNESOTA

DP: Ponder takes over an anemic Minnesota offense and tries to keep up with Aaron Rodgers and the Packers on turf. Do I think they can stay within 8.5? No I do not. Pick: Pack.

TJ: I desperately want to be contrarian and pick the Vikes, but they just seem like a trainwreck.  If they could get out in front and run Peterson all day, they could have a shot, but Rodgers won’t allow it, and will put up 40 points easy.  The Vikings just can’t keep up, even at home.  Pick: Packers.

NEW ORLEANS (- 13.5) vs Indianapolis

DP: This is how sad things have become. The Doc put money on both the Saints -14 and the Saints over 31.5 points. Is it too early to flex a better game into this slot? How bad are things gonna get for the Colts? Well the 'easy' part of their schedule is over. They still have @New Orleans, Atlanta, @New England, @Baltimore, plus Tenn (2x) and Houston. The most likely games left that are 'winnable' are Jax (2X) and Carolina and the Panthers have looked pretty good lately. Hard to see more 2 wins on the schedule. Pick: New Orleans

TJ: The Colts have thrown in the towel, and my picking them to win the South seems like an alcohol-induced hallucination from 10 years ago.  Wow, do the Colts stink without Manning.  It’s just further proof that he’s the most important player in the league.  Both because he’s very good, but equally because the Colts built their entire offense around him and had no backup plan.  I don’t even like the Saints that much, but it’s just impossible to pick the Colts to keep it close.  Pick: Saints.

Baltimore (-7.5) vs JACKSONVILLE

DP: Baltimore is very quietly flying under the radar right now but I think they are the best team in the AFC. Solid Defense (7th against the pass and 3rd against the run) plus a balanced offense (13th passing and 12th running) is a good sign. The schedule still includes the Cards, Colts, @Seahawks, Bengals (2X) and Browns (2X). Their 'tough' games are @Pitt, @San Diego, and San Fran. That looks like no worse than 12-4 and a good shot at 14-2 and homefield. Can Jax take their rookie QB and 32nd ranked passing game and keep up with Baltimore? Seems unlikely. Pick: Ravens

TJ: The key here isn’t that the Ravens are that great (I think they’re good, but not as good as the Doc is arguing), it’s the QB situation in Jacksonville.  The Ravens will be able to stack against the run and dare Gabbert to pass the ball, then ballhawk on his mistakes and create at least one pick-six.  Ed Reed probably had a chubby all week just thinking about Gabbert floating ill-advised ducks and telegraphing slant routes.  Pick: Ravens.