The Doc doesn't like his chances this week. He has poured over the games and can only find one Dog that doesn't terrify him. The Doc sees a future of watching 12 favorites all try to cover. Yeah, its not gonna be pretty.
DETROIT (-3.5) vs Atlanta
DP: I feel like Atlanta is a bit overvalued coming off a win and going on the road. The Lions certainly have their own issues, but I still feel like they are a quality team and are a good match-up for a finesse Atlanta team. Pick: Lions
TJ: I disagree. I think Atlanta got undervalued early because of a slow start, but they’re actually still a decent team and have a shot at the playoffs. In fact, this game may have a lot to do with the Wild Card picture late in the season, as the Lions have little chance of beating the Packers for the division, and Atlanta is in a dogfight for the NFC South. I like the points. Pick: Falcons.
Chicago (-1.5) vs TAMPA BAY
DP: Vegas seems to be begging you to take Tampa, especially after a nice win against the Saints last week. The Doc doesn't see it though. Tampa's poor D-line play will prevent them from really taking advantage of the Bears shaky O-line. Pick: Bears
TJ: Forte has proven himself a beast, and I like the Bears defense to disrupt any rhythm the Bucs can put together on O. I think that shellacking by the 49ers was no fluke, and this Bucs team is vulnerable if they get behind early, since they have no big play potential and Freeman remains a game manager. Pick: Bears.
CAROLINA (-2.5) vs Washington
DP: One of the few games I felt good enough to bet on this week. Carolina is rising fast and Washington seems to have some discord with the change at QB. Pick: Panthers
TJ: I think Shanahan has lost it. I know Grossman isn’t the long-term solution, but they were winning with him (at least a few games), and now they’ve destroyed any confidence he had, and any confidence his teammates had in him. All for John Beck? What a clusterfuck. I also like Newton to get back on track and pass for about 800 yards in a sloppy, high-scoring mess of a game. Pick: Panthers.
Denver (+2.5) vs MIAMI
DP: The only Dog I took this week. I actually hope Miami wins, but I see Tim Tebow coming back to Florida and stealing a game. Pick: Broncos.
TJ: Miami sucks. Lame duck coach, lame duck QB, no defense, just awful. Denver ain’t great, especially since they traded away their best offensive player last week in Lloyd, but I agree that Tebow gives them a spark. Unfortunately, the theory that he’ll have fans at the game is a mistake, as no one in Miami likes UF, they’re all fans of UM, and they hate Tebow. Picking him to be the difference on the road is a tough call. I’m only taking Denver because of the spread. This will be a low-scoring crap-fest, and I like the points. Pick: Broncos.
San Diego (-1.5) vs NY JETS
DP: I don't like either team frankly, but I think San Diego can score enough to win on the road. Pick: Chargers
TJ: I’m getting points at home with the Jets against a West-coast team? Yes, please! And the Jets don’t stink. They’re in a slump, but they’re still above average. I like the Chargers, especially since Matthews has come on strong at RB, but not enough to take them giving up points across country against a quality (and desperate) team. Pick: Jets.
CLEVELAND (-2.5) vs Seattle
DP: I can't take the 'Hawks on the road. I just hope Colt McCoy has enough of a passing game to cover. Pick: Browns
TJ: The Doc is right. Looks like Charlie Whitehurst is starting for the Seaskanks, and if you want me to back that dude on the road against an angry, underachieving Cleveland team, you must be crazy. Pick: Browns.
TENNESSEE (-3.5) vs Houston
DP: The Doc is feeling pretty good about his Tenn +600 bet to win the AFC South. Without Mario Williams, I think the Tenn line gives Matt Hasselbeck enough time to throw down field. The Titans take a big step toward winning the Division. Pick: Titans
TJ: I think there are two possible scenarios: Houston scores first and can use their running game to control the clock and wear out the Tennessee defense; Tennessee scores first, pressures Houston into passing, and wins in a rout. They seem pretty equally likely to me, so I’ll just take the points. Pick: Texans.
Pittsburgh (-3.5) vs ARIZONA
DP: Another game between inconsistent teams. Is it possible that Arizona cashes in on 5 Pitt turnovers to win the game? Possible, yes. But not likely. Pick: Pitt.
TJ: Agreed, the only way for the Cardinals to win is for Pittsburgh to give them the game with turnovers and blown coverages. Won’t happen this week. Pick: Steelers.
OAKLAND (-3.5) vs Kansas City
DP: This is another head scratcher of a line. The home Raiders only giving 3.5 points (on some of the online books, the line is up to 6). I guess people are worried that Carson Palmer is rusty? I'll happily give the points and take the Raiders.
TJ: Yeah, there’s just nothing to like about that Chiefs team. The Raiders have a great running game and a solid defense. The QB situation won’t come into play, because the Chiefs can’t score enough to force the Raiders to pass. Easy pick: Raiders.
DALLAS (-12.5) vs St. Louis
DP: Dallas is my choice for NFC sleeper right now (a team 0.500 or worse that could go to the Superbowl). They have had a surprisingly tough early schedule (Jets, 49ers, Redskins, Lions, Pats) and hung close in every game (no game decided by more than 4 points). They still have the Rams, Seahawks, Dolphins, and Cardinals on the schedule plus the inconsistent NFC East Eagles (2X), GIants (2X), and @Redskins. Their 'toughest' games are Buff and @Tampa. I think they finish 8-3 and win the Division at 10-6.
TJ: I like the Doc’s analysis of the NFC East and the ‘Boy’s chances. What about giving up 12.5 though? I mean, man, that’s a big spread for a 2-3 team to cover. The Rams picked up Brandon Lloyd to help the passing game, and I think they were better than their 0-5 record to begin with. So the question is, is this a 35-28 Cowboys win, or a 31-10 Cowboys win? Yeah, it’s hard to see St. Louis scoring 28. Pick: Boys.
Green Bay (-8.5) vs MINNESOTA
DP: Ponder takes over an anemic Minnesota offense and tries to keep up with Aaron Rodgers and the Packers on turf. Do I think they can stay within 8.5? No I do not. Pick: Pack.
TJ: I desperately want to be contrarian and pick the Vikes, but they just seem like a trainwreck. If they could get out in front and run Peterson all day, they could have a shot, but Rodgers won’t allow it, and will put up 40 points easy. The Vikings just can’t keep up, even at home. Pick: Packers.
NEW ORLEANS (- 13.5) vs Indianapolis
DP: This is how sad things have become. The Doc put money on both the Saints -14 and the Saints over 31.5 points. Is it too early to flex a better game into this slot? How bad are things gonna get for the Colts? Well the 'easy' part of their schedule is over. They still have @New Orleans, Atlanta, @New England, @Baltimore, plus Tenn (2x) and Houston. The most likely games left that are 'winnable' are Jax (2X) and Carolina and the Panthers have looked pretty good lately. Hard to see more 2 wins on the schedule. Pick: New Orleans
TJ: The Colts have thrown in the towel, and my picking them to win the South seems like an alcohol-induced hallucination from 10 years ago. Wow, do the Colts stink without Manning. It’s just further proof that he’s the most important player in the league. Both because he’s very good, but equally because the Colts built their entire offense around him and had no backup plan. I don’t even like the Saints that much, but it’s just impossible to pick the Colts to keep it close. Pick: Saints.
Baltimore (-7.5) vs JACKSONVILLE
DP: Baltimore is very quietly flying under the radar right now but I think they are the best team in the AFC. Solid Defense (7th against the pass and 3rd against the run) plus a balanced offense (13th passing and 12th running) is a good sign. The schedule still includes the Cards, Colts, @Seahawks, Bengals (2X) and Browns (2X). Their 'tough' games are @Pitt, @San Diego, and San Fran. That looks like no worse than 12-4 and a good shot at 14-2 and homefield. Can Jax take their rookie QB and 32nd ranked passing game and keep up with Baltimore? Seems unlikely. Pick: Ravens
TJ: The key here isn’t that the Ravens are that great (I think they’re good, but not as good as the Doc is arguing), it’s the QB situation in Jacksonville. The Ravens will be able to stack against the run and dare Gabbert to pass the ball, then ballhawk on his mistakes and create at least one pick-six. Ed Reed probably had a chubby all week just thinking about Gabbert floating ill-advised ducks and telegraphing slant routes. Pick: Ravens.
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