Week 5 Picks

The Good Doc has been in a funk, but made it back to .500 this week. Hopefully it’s a sign of better things to come. Now on to the Picks!

NY GIANTS (-9.5) vs Seattle

DP: Seattle is a Jekyll and Hyde team. They do alright at home against finesse teams, but can't handle physical teams on the road. New York is both physical and far away from home. I think it might be a long plane ride back to The Great Northwest.

TJ:  The Doc’s analysis is good, but the Giants are so volatile, it’s hard to pick them to win in a blowout.  Fortunately, Seattle’s incredibly bad QB and ridiculous road record for the last few years outweighs the Giants’ volatility.  Pick: Giants.

MINNESOTA (-2.5) vs Arizona

DP: I think people will over value Arizona last week after a close lose at home and undervalue a Minnesota team that lost to KC on the road. I think Minny is playing a little better right now, but had the bad luck of playing three pretty good teams (San Diego, Tampa, Detroit).  I like them to cover at home.

TJ:  Arizona is my pick to win the NFC West, and I hate the Vikings, so I’m gonna go against the Doc’s perfectly reasonable argument and pick the Cards.  If they let me down again, I’ll be off their bandwagon for sure (I think).  Pick: Cards.

CAROLINA (+6.5) vs New Orleans

DP: It’s hard to cover in Divisional games on the road. Plus Carolina is frisky.

TJ:  Disagree.  Carolina is overvalued for the numbers Newton has put up.  Teams will learn to key on him and use some more confusing defenses that he hasn’t seen yet, and there’s no way Carolina prevents New Orleans from putting up big points.  This could be a blowout.  Pick: Saints.

BUFFALO (+2.5) vs Philadelphia

DP: Everyone picking Philly uses the same reasoning: they can't go 1-4. But that's not logic, its self-delusion. Buffalo actually stacks up well against the Birds.

TJ:  They can’t go 1-4!  Pick: Philly.

INDIANAPOLIS (-2.5) vs Kansas City

DP: Indy plays a little better under Curtis Painter, who I think will give them just enough to cover against KC.

TJ:  Painter sucks and the Colts are in a freefall.  The only cure for what ails them would be playing at home against the worst team in the league.  BINGO!  Pick: Colts.

Cincinnati (+2.5) vs JACKSONVILLE

DP: This is one game that I am pretty sure I won't be stopping on very often for DirecTV. I think Cincy will grind out a close one.

TJ:  Cincy is not as terrible as I thought, and their defense is actually good (3^rd against pass, 7^th against run).  True, they’ve compiled those stats against mostly bad teams, but Jacksonville is nothing if not a mostly bad team!  I say they get after Blaine Gabbert and blow this one wide open.  Pick: Cincy.

Tennessee (+6.5) vs PITTSBURGH

DP: I wish I could find +6.5 at a gambling site! Most places have +3 and even at that I still like the Titans in what should be a physical game.

TJ: This line should be much lower, and as the Doc says, at most places it is.  Pitt has issues stopping the run (22^nd in the league), and Chris Johnson is starting to roll (broke 100yds last week).  Pick: Titans.

Oakland (+5.5) vs HOUSTON

DP: Sunday evening I will probably be holding my head and wondering "Why did I take the Raiders on the road?" For now though I don't think that has the kind of passing game without Andre Johnson to exploit the Raider's secondary. I think this one could be close as well.

TJ:  Adrian Foster had 155 yards last week against Pittsburgh.  Oakland will fare no better.  I think Houston will roll this week, then face their real challenge next week against the Ravens.  Pick: Houston.

SAN FRANCISCO (-2.5) vs Tampa Bay

DP: Tampa is 3-1, but they have been pretty inconsistent with weak performances against Minny and Indy. I like the discipline that Jim Harbaugh has brought to the 49ers grinding out road wins against Cincy and Philly. I like the 49ers to handle their business at home.

TJ: Tampa will assert themselves here.  I like them to win handily, so I love getting the points.  I don’t believe in the 49ers yet at all.  They can’t pass or defend the pass, and it’s a passing league. Pick: Bucs.

NY Jets (+9.5) vs NEW ENGLAND

DP: This line seems way too big for me. The Jets are actually pretty good against the pass and put most of their focus on beating the Pats. I think it will be a competitive game as I like Mark Sanchez to step up against a weak Pat's D.

TJ:  The Pats D is weak, it’s true, but Sanchez is in a tailspin.  The Jets’ defensive schemes just don’t seem to be at the same level as last year, and Brady is playing terrific ball.  Both defenses are playing poorly, so I’ll take the better offense.  Pick: Pats.

San Diego (-4.5) vs DENVER

DP: Everything about this game points to San Diego- nice win last weekend, Denver was blown out, spread is pretty small. I assume the public money is well over 80% on San Diego. If ever there was a time to go contrarian, it would be now, but I just can't bring myself to do it. Denver looks lost and San Diego is playing fairly consistently right now.

TJ:  I love San Diego here.  They’re by far the best team in that division.  Orton has lost the team and the fans, and it’s only a matter of time before he pisses away any momentum he has.  Remember, this dude has six picks in four games.  San Diego will eat him alive, and Rivers (who also has six picks in four games) will put up huge numbers that will get his season back on track.  Pick: Chargers.

ATLANTA (+5.5) vs Green Bay

DP: I think most people will remember the game from last year and assume it will be another blow out, but I think they are pretty evenly matched. Atlanta should be able to throw on Green Bay and I am sure they will be up for the game. I will take a good team getting 5.5 at home even if it is the Packers.

TJ: Atlanta is a different team this year.  I don’t think they can pressure Rodgers at all, and when he has time, he puts up points.  I like Green Bay to win big, even if it’s 58-45.  Pick: Packers.

Chicago (+5.5) vs DETROIT

DP: Another game that looks obvious on paper. 4-0 Detroit at home against stumbling Chicago. The contrarian view is that they played 'down to their competition' against Dallas and Minnesota, Divisional opponents are always tougher to cover against the spread, and that the Bears may be 2-2 but they have played a pretty rough schedule (Atlanta, New Orleans, Green Bay, and a frisky Carolina team). I like the Bears to put a pretty good fight against the Lions.

TJ:  Bears are simply not good.  Suh will eat Cutler’s heart on a fucking stick.  I like the Lions to win big and show that this division is clearly divided between the good (Detroit/Green Bay), the bad (Chicago), and the ugly (Minnesota).  Pick: Lions.