TJ: Rough start to the season for the Doc. He’s 20-28, and I’m 26-22 over the first 3 weeks. We differ on seven games this week, so the Doc could make up a lot of ground here. Or I could bury him! Let’s get to the picks:
Detroit (+1.5) vs DALLAS
DP: Detroit is the kind of physical team that gives Dallas trouble. The 'Boys are banged up and playing on a short week. I don't think they have all of their issues worked out yet on the offensive line and now they have to line up opposite of N. Suh. Pick: Loins
TJ: I’ve held off as long as I could, but I guess I’m on the Lions’s bandwagon now. They should get to Romo easily and disrupt the Cowboy’s passing, and the ‘Boys running game is one of the worst in the league (I think they’ll really miss Marion Barber). Pick: Lions
PHILADELPHIA (-6.5) vs San Francisco
DP: San Fran beat Cincy in an ugly game last week and stayed over in Philly instead of flying home. This never works out. Philly is light up front on D and their O-line can be pushed around by physical teams. I don't think San Fran can exploit either weakness. Pick: Eagles.
TJ: The Doc is exactly right, San Fran is a poor team to begin with, and there’s no way they can go into Philly and beat a much more talented team that ought to be super-motivated to get back on track. Philly’s offense will get healthy in this game, and the D will light up Alex Smith. Pick: Philly
Carolina (+6.5) vs CHICAGO
DP: The Bears are so erratic that they are hard to handicap. I doubt that I will bet on them all year. Carolina has been frisky, so I'll take the points and hope for a close game. Pick: Panthers
TJ: The Panthers, and Newton in particular, are due for a real stinker. I don’t like the Bears at all this year, but I think they study a little film and get a bead on Cam Newton and that terrible Panthers D and rip them a new ass at home. Pick: Bears.
ST. LOUIS vs Washington (-0.5)
DP: I'll probably regret this, but I'll give the Rams one more chance to validate my faith in them. Pick: Rams
TJ: I don’t like either of these teams at all, so I’ll take the home dog. Pick: Rams.
CINCINNATI (+3.5) vs Buffalo
DP: Buffalo is a great story, but I can definitely see a stumble here. Big home wins the last two weeks vs. the Raiders and Pats and looking ahead to the Eagles next week. Cincy has a deceptively good defense and I think they can slow the Bills down into a slop fest. In fact sitting here writing this makes me want to bet the under. Pick: Bungles.
TJ: The Bengals’ one win came against my Browns in a week 1 game they should have lost. They’re a bad team, and Buffalo will come in and put a beat down on a defense that’s been lucky up to this point. Fire-crotch Dalton is dead meat. Pick: Bills.
Tennessee (+0.5) vs CLEVELAND
DP: I like the Titans to take care of business on the road. Pick: Tenn
TJ: I don’t believe in this Titans team at all. They’ve lost their intimidation on the D-line, they aren’t running the ball well, and Hasselbeck will fall apart. Meanwhile, the Browns are finding their stride. They’re not a playoff team, but they’re scrappy. I think they win this one at home. Pick: Browns.
New Orleans (-7.5) vs JACKSONVILLE
DP: Jax defense isn't terrible, but do you want to take Blaine Gabbert and Jax 32nd ranked passing offense in a shootout with the Saints? Pick: Saints.
TJ: I really wanted to take a home team getting more than a touchdown. But the Jags? I don’t like a single thing about this team. The Saints will put up too many points. Pick: Saints.
KANSAS CITY vs Minnesota (-1.5)
DP: Weird line as the Vikings are giving 3 to 3.5 points at most off shore books. I'll go contrarian here and take the reeling Chiefs to save face at home, but I'd feel a lot better with those 2 extra points. Pick: KC
TJ: Again, I don’t like either team. I guess this time I’ll go with the home dog. It will be amusing to see Minnesota blow up at 0-4. Pick: Chiefs.
Pittsburgh (+3.5) vs HOUSTON
DP: Pitt has been terrible with turnovers, but I think some of that is chance and will even out. Houston does not handle physical teams well so I look for the Steelers to smack them around a little and pull out a narrow win. Pick: Pitt
TJ: Houston is overrated and Pittsburgh is underrated. I love getting 3.5 points to take the team I think will win outright anyway. What a nice value bet. Pick: Steelers.
ARIZONA (+1.5) vs NY Giants
DP: Another weird line as Arizona is getting 3 to 3.5 points at most books that I've seen. This is my upset special. I like the Cards to surprise the inconsistent Giants at home. Pick: Birds
TJ: I took Arizona to win the NFC West, and if they’re going to do it, they need this game. Their defense has been atrocious, and the Giants seem to be getting on track with that win over Philly. I hate to do it, but I’m gonna take the Giants to win on the road. Pick: Giants.
Atlanta (-4.5) vs SEATTLE
DP: This line has been bet up to 6 now. Seattle is tougher at home, but I'll follow the smoke and take the Birds. Pick: Atl
TJ: I think Atlanta isn’t the same team from last year. Julio Jones may be the real deal, but Turner isn’t running well and that defense is playing terribly. Seattle has one of the worst offenses in the league, but I think they get healthy this week and win at home. Pick: Seaskanks.
Denver (+12.5) vs GREEN BAY
DP: Green Bay is between big games (@Chicago and @Falcons). I like them to get a lead early but to let up late and let Denver cover. Pick: Broncos
TJ: I agree with the Doc, this is just too many points to expect the Packers to cover on what amounts to an off week. I think they relax at home and win by 10. Pick: Broncos.
New England (-4.5) vs OAKLAND
DP: New England seems like a good value here. The Pats have the top passing game. The Raiders have the top running game. As Sean Connery would say that likes bringing a knife to a gun fight. Pick: Pats
TJ: The Pats will bounce back and get right this week with an absolute crushing of the Raiders. They’ll score early and take away the Raiders’ ability to run the ball. Campbell won’t be able to take advantage of the Pats’ weak secondary. I see a bunch of turnovers and a landslide for the Pats. Pick: NE.
Miami (+7.5) vs SAN DIEGO
DP: I don't see an upset here, but I think that the 0-3 Dolphins will throw everything they have at winning this game before they go into their Bye next week. Pick: 'Fins
TJ: San Diego will roll at home. They’re the better team, they’re passing well and defending the pass well, and I don’t think Miami has the weapons to change that. Reggie Bush certainly isn’t the answer! Pick: Chargers.
NY Jets (+3.5) vs BALTIMORE
DP: This just feels like a low scoring slug fest. I don't see either team winning by more than a FG. Pick: J-E-T-S
TJ: The Jets have the second-worst rush defense in the league, and I think Ray Rice is going to gouge them. I don’t like Flacco, but I don’t think the Ravens will have to rely on him much, as they should be able to keep the score low and pound away at that Jets’ D. Pick: Ravens.
Indianapolis (+9.5) vs TAMPA BAY
DP: There are a lot of teams that probably want to kick Indy while they are down, but I don't see Tampa Bay as being one of them. I think Curtis Painter is just frisky enough to cover. Pick: Colts.
TJ: A lot of points for Indy here, and like the Doc said, I don’t see the Bucs running up the score. Pick: Indy.
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