The Bets: Week 3 Recap and Week 4 Bets

The Trouble with Teasers

The Doc enjoys Teasers for their entertainment value. You get the combination of multiple games to watch, lower point spreads to cover, and potentially bigger payoffs. Of course, the problem with Teasers is that their is usually an upset that throws everything off which is why its a suckers bet if your primary goal is winning (my primary goal is entertainment). Week 1, I went 3/3 and won my Teaser. Week 2 I went 5/6 and lost. But Week 3 was just pathetic. I took, New England, San Diego, and Pitt and bought three points and not one of them covered. 0/3 Pathetic. I did make a little of that back by correctly picking The Raiders to cover vs. The Jets, but I have now slipped into the red for the season.

Week 3: -$15
Season: -$3

On to Week 4. Maybe it was being burned on my Teaser last week, but this week I found value mostly in individual games.

Bet To Win
$5.50 $5.00 Football NFL - Tennessee Titans +1 -110 for Game
I like Tennesse and continue to think they are a little under valued. They out-played Jax in a narrow Week 1 loss then beat Baltimore and Denver. Their Defense is 2nd against the pass and 8th against the run. They have a good enough O-line to protect Matt Hasselbeck who can still make some plays (even without Kenny Britt). Their one weakness is running where they are 32nd overall. If they could ever get Chris Johnson untracked, they could be a pretty good team. I continue to like Cleveland's future, but they are still a little shaky. On offense they are 25th and 22nd in passing/running and they are 29th against the run and thats against a Cincy, Indy, and Miami (combined 1-8). Give me the point and the Titans.

$5.50 $5.00 Football NFL - Arizona Cardinals +3 -110 for Game
This feels like a 'let-down' game to by the Giants. They are coming off big wins against St. Louis and Philly and now travel West before two home games against Seattle and Buffalo. Their numbers are kind of middle of the pack 20th passing and 20th against the pass, 15th running and 15th against the run. Arizona mean while is a little undervalued as a home dog. They beat a Carolina team that looks better than we thought and narrowly lost to Washington on the road. Granted the loss to Seattle is not good, but winning road games against Division opponents is always difficult. Arizona's defense isn't great, they haven't been blown out either. I like the Cardinals to keep it close.

$5.50 $5.00 Football NFL - Miami Dolphins +7½ -110 for Game
I think most fans will basically assume that San Diego will win in a blow out because they are the better team, at home, and that Miami has given up. That could happen. But look closer and San Diego's 2 wins are against 0-3 teams. Both wins were at home and neither win by was more than 7 points. Finally, this home game is sandwiched between two divisional opponents (Chiefs last week and @Denver next week), so their focus might not be on the lowly Dolphins. Miami actually played fairly well against the Pats and Texans before late TDs padded the final scores. Finally, the Dolphins BYE is next week and I think they know that if they lose, then the coach will be canned. This feels like a 'kitchen sink' game to me as the Dolphins will be desperate to win. I like Miami to keep it close.

$5.50 $5.00 Football NFL - Denver Broncos +13 -110 for Game
Again, I think the common sense is that Green Bay is the best team in football, is at home, and already has an 8 point win over New Orleans and a 10 win over Chicago. Those numbers are undeniable. Their offense is great and will likely put up 30+ points. So the question is can the Broncos keep it under 2 TDs? Well Green Bay is first against the run (55.o yards/gm) mainly because they are second worst against the pass (359.3 yards/game). I think Kyle Orten will be able to pass a little against the Packers. Finally the Packers are between big games (@Chicago last week and @Atlanta next week). I see them slipping ahead early then losing focus and letting the Broncos score late to cover.

Future/Prop $5.00 $30.00 Football Futures - Divisions Tennessee Titans +600 for To Win the AFC South
This bet was actually made late last week. I was looking through the futures and saw that Houston was an amazing -600 to win the AFC South. I mean would you feel good about putting $600 on the Texans to win the AFC South to win $100? Checking the other teams I saw Tennessee at +600. I actually like the Texans but I don't see how they are giving 6:1 to the Titans. Same analysis as above. The Titans have pretty good line play and a stable, if unspectacular, veteran QB. If they can get anything from Chris Johnson, they have a legit shot at 10 wins and the division. So I dropped $5 and will keep an eye on them for the rest of the season.