At Green Bay -4.5 New Orleans 47.5
DP: Since going to the Thursday night opener, the defending champ has won every game. The only real question is can the Packers cover? GB’s defense is super fast which means they are a bad match up for New Orleans. Meanwhile the Packers offense should have no problems driving against an aging Saints D. Pick: Pack
TJ: I know it’s early in the season, but I really expected this line to be higher. The Pack hold every advantage in this game including home field (which the books usually say is worth 3 points), so I would have guessed -6 or -7. At -4.5, the Packers are the clear choice.
At Baltimore -2.5 Pittsburgh 36.5
DP: I think Pitt is the better team, so even on the road, I’ll take the Steelers and the points. Pick: Steelers
TJ: The Ravens defense is old, and their QB is suspect against tough defenses (like the Steelers). The Ravens’ only chance is to really establish Ray Rice early, get out to a lead, and milk the clock with a tough running game. I don’t see that happening against the Steelers, and I see Big Ben connecting with Mike Wallace deep a couple of times, preventing the Ravens from getting comfortable. Pick: Steelers.
At Tampa Bay -1.5 Detroit 41
DP: A battle of up and coming teams. I like how Tampa is building for the future, but I have a gut hunch that Detroit is ready to win now. Their defense is ahead of Tampa and Matthew Stafford may not be able to stay healthy all year, but I think he’ll stay healthy for one game. Pick: Lions
TJ: I’d love to see the Lions have a great season, but I’m not ready to hop on the bandwagon yet. I love their prospects at D-line for the future, but they’re already banged-up, and Tampa is just a year stronger and smarter. Tampa wins at home.
Atlanta -2.5 At Chicago 41
DP: Its amazing, these two teams were the top seeds in the NFC last year and this game is getting almost no press because everyone thinks they’ll stink this year. At 3, I’d take the Bears, but at 2.5 I like the Falcons. Pick: Birds.
TJ: The Doc and I rode the Falcons all year last year, and I’m not ready to stop. I know they’re better at home, but it won’t be snowing at soldier field yet, and the Bears aren’t nearly as good as last year’s record indicates. I’ll take Atlanta.
At Kansas City -5.5 Buffalo 39.5
DP: The steam is on Buffalo with the line dropping 1 point recently. I can see either a Bills blow out if Cassel is out and Fitzpatrick catches fire or a sloppy close game. Either way, give me the points. Pick: Bills.
TJ: This line sucks. I hate the Bills, but 5.5 is a lot of points to be giving on the road, especially with a banged-up QB, and I never liked the Chiefs to begin with. I thought they were lucky as hell last year, and I think they’ll come back to earth this season. Here’s to my first week of hating on the Chiefs: Bills win!
At Houston -8.5 Indianapolis 43
DP: This one could get ugly fast. I’ll just have to remember the good times. I always knew, it wouldn’t last forever…. Pick: Houston.
TJ: 8.5 points? Are you kidding me? Kerry Collins isn’t going to suck nearly as much as people think, and I refuse to jump on Houston’s train. I won’t believe they’re any good until they win a playoff game. They have all the expectations, and Indy will play loose. I won’t give up on the Colts until I see 9 in their loss column. Pick: Colts
Philadelphia -4.5 At St. Louis 44
DP: Another home dog that I like. I think the Rams are a team on the move. Their offense should be able to do some things against the Eagles Defense and I will stick with the theory that the league is catching up with Michael Vick 2.0. Pick: Rams.
TJ: Let’s not get ahead of ourselves. St. Louis has a bright future, but Philly is more talented than last year, and they were a strong playoff team while St. Louis couldn’t win the worst division in modern NFL history. Philly will win easily.
At Cleveland -6.5 Cincinnati 35.5
DP: I like this line a lot better at -6.5. I love the Browns this year and I can’t see Andy Dalton scoring too much in his first game. Pick: Browns.
TJ: I’m a Browns fan, so I don’t want to jinx anything by talking them up. I think they have a shot to be mediocre, but that’s about it. I’m happy to say that Cincy sucks, though, and I have no problem giving up 6.5 to such a shitty squad. Pick: Browns.
At Jacksonville -3.5 Tennessee 37.5
DP: I suspect this line will move on the news that Garrard is out and Luke Mckown is in. Pick: Tenn.
TJ: I don’t like the Titans, especially on the road, but Jacksonville is bad, and they only got worse by dropping Garrard. I’ll happily take Tennessee and the points.
NY Giants -3.5 At Washington 37.5
DP: On the 9/11 anniversary, the Jets get the home game while New York’s other team goes to Washington for the other ceremonial match-up. I have already decided that Washington will be terrible this year and there is no sense backing off now. Pick: Giants.
TJ: Man, this is the third matchup in a row of two poor teams. The home underdog is a temptation here, though. I hate to do it, but I’m going to take the ‘Skins.
At Arizona -6.5 Carolina 37
DP: Who the hell knows, but I can’t bring myself to take Cam Newton on the road, even if he does get 6.5 points. Pick: Cards
TJ: Yeah, the Doc said it, there is no way to take this shitty Panthers team on the road with a rookie QB. Who knows, maybe Kolb will be for real? Pick: Arizona.
At San Francisco -5 Seattle 38
DP: Another strict stay away. I wonder if San Fran is a good destination for David Garrard? As bad as Tavaris Jackson has looked, Alex Smith may be worse. In the third preseason game, Smith had a QB rating of 2.8. I’ll take the points and hope for a low scoring crappy game. Pick: Skanks.
TJ: Yeah, this is five matchups of shitty teams in a row now. I think I just threw up in my mouth a little. Gimme Seattle and the points.
At San Diego -8.5 Minnesota 41.5
DP: UPSET SPECIAL! I don’t get the Chargers love. They have a good offense, but terrible coaching and terrible drafts. Minny gets upgrade at QB plus stability at coaching. I love, love, love the Vikings with 8.5 points.
TJ: Doc, please make your picks before you share a rock with the latest crack-addict in the psych ER. Minnesota sucks. San Diego is going to be better this year. 8.5 is a huge line, but it’s huge for a reason. Minny will get killed on the road here. Pick: Chargers.
At NY Jets -4.5 Dallas 40.5
DP: The Jets D is good at home and will be pumped up again for the season opener on 9/11. I can’t see the cowboys scoring more than 17. So can Rob Ryan’s defense keep the Jets’ Offense under 22? I don’t think so. Rob’s defenses take the correct personnel and a lot of time to implement. He has never been better than 28th in the league in his first year with a new team. Add to that Cowboys problems in the secondary and I think the Jets should cover easily. Pick: J-E-T-S
TJ: The Jets are a better team, and they’re playing at home. If the Cowboys had any semblance of a run game, I might like them, but they’ll have to completely depend upon Romo, and this Jets D will eat him alive. Jets are the pick.
Monday Night Football
New England -6.5 At Miami 45.5
DP: Chad Henne has played better and Miami was embarrassed at home against the Pats last year so do I dare take the 6.5 points at home? I just can’t. I think Belichek and Brady are focused for one last run and the Pats have had some nice drafts lately. Pick: Pats
TJ: Yeah, this is a no-brainer. Even on the road early, I like the Pats to light it up. I won’t be shocked to see one of those 2007-style 48-10 Pats thrashings. Easy pick: New England.
At Denver -3.5 Oakland 40
DP: Denver is another team that I have picked out with my analysis. They get some players back from injury, get stability at coaching and QB, and drafted Von Miller who should be able to play right away. Whatever progress the Raiders made last year was squandered on another terrible off-season. Pick: Broncos
TJ: I don’t like the Broncos nearly as much as the Doc, and I think the Raiders will keep up with their surprising mediocrity. They’ll win this one on their way to another 8-win season. Pick: Oakland.
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