Week 6 Picks!

TJ: After a dismal performance last week, I’m really digging deep to try to keep my head above water (and my record over .500!). I’m taking a ton of favorites this week and laying a lot of points, mostly because there are some unutterably shitty defenses out there. Here we go!

Buffalo (+3.5) vs NY GIANTS

TJ: I know they blew it against the Bengals, and normally I’m the skeptic who won’t back a team who was bad last year, but the Bills seem like they’re a decent squad to me. I’m not sure they can earn a Wild Card (the Pats will take the division), but I think they’re a good running team with a QB who won’t screw them. It’s their D that scares me, though (26th against the pass, 29th against the run, giving up 24 points/game). The Giants rushing attack is miserable this year, though, and their defense isn’t much better than the Bills’ D, so it seems like a toss-up. I’ll take the points. Pick: Bills.

DP: People are still sleeping on this Bills team. I think they go on the road and handle a Giants squad that is too inconsistent. Pick: Bills

WASHINGTON (-0.5) vs Philadelphia

TJ: Last week I took the Eagles because I thought they had to better than they play indicated, even though the Doc correctly advised against it. I don’t believe in this rejuvenated Redskins team, but I can’t keep backing the Eagles. I’m gonna take the ‘Skins at home, but if the Eagles D finally pulls it together and intercepts Grossman 6 times, I’m gonna be pissed. Pick: ‘Skins.

DP: I like Philly here as a contrarian pick. I think their speed on offense will overwhelm the Redskins Defense and they will easily win. Pick: Eagles.

San Francisco (+4.5) vs DETROIT

TJ: If it weren’t for an OT loss to the Cowboys, the 49ers could be right alongside the Lions as huge surprise 5-0 teams. The main difference right now is at QB, where I think Stafford hasn’t proven himself yet, but Alex Smith has proven that he stinks and his team is winning simply because he’s avaoided screwing them so far (they’re still 29th in the league in passing). I think Suh will eat Smith alive, and the healed-up Fairley will get his first sack of the season as well. Pick: Lions.

DP: The Lions are opportunistic which is another way of saying they need other teams to screw up. I think San Fran is disciplined enough to stick with the Lions and keep it to a 3-point game. Pick: 49ers.

GREEN BAY (-14.5) vs St. Louis

TJ: 14.5 is a TON of points, but the Pack is averaging 35 points per game while St. Louis is averaging only 12. Furthermore, the Rams D will be the worst Green Bay has faced all year as far as points allowed (28.2/game), while St. Louis scored only 13 and 16 against the Giants and Eagles, defenses ranked far below Green Bay’s in points allowed. With Green Bay at home, all signs point to a blowout. I’ll lay the points. Pick: Pack.

DP: The Doc got a few things right in his pre-season preview, but his St. Louis love was not one of them. The Rams brutal schedule to start the season ends with a blow-out in Green Bay. The Doc is so certain of this, he took the ‘over’ on points which was only 48. Green Bay may score 48 by themselves!!!!! Pick: Pack

ATLANTA (-4.5) vs Carolina

TJ: If it weren’t for that 3-point loss to Tampa, folks wouldn’t be nearly as down on the Falcons. Their offense struggled against Green Bay last week, and they just can’t seem to get Turner loose, but I think this is the week for the offense to get healthy. Julio Jones will bust his cherry and get his first NFL TD, and Turner will break 120 yards against the Panthers terrible run D (ranked 27th). I wouldn’t be shocked if Newton throws a couple picks as well. Pick: Falcons.

DP: Carolina has been a nice story, but it feels like they are due for a stinker. Atlanta is desperate and at home and feels like the right time for Cam Newton to act like a rookie. Pick: Dirty Birds

Indianapolis (+7.5) vs CINCINNATI

TJ: I really want to back the Colts here with 7.5 points, but the Bengals D has been pretty decent so far, and the Colts just don’t seem to have anything going for them at all. They’re averaging 82 yards rushing per game TOTAL. That’s terrible. Since it’s in Cincy, I guess I have to lay the points here. Pick: Bengals.

DP: What were the preseason odds for the Colts to go 0-16? I bet it was like 1:30000. I should lay $5 on it every year just in case. This is what my season has become, rooting for the Dolphins to win every week. Pick: Bengals.

PITTSBURGH (-12.5) vs Jacksonville

TJ: You know, I think Pittsburgh has a lot of issues, but they’re 3-2 with the number one passing defense in the league, and you wnt me to take Blaine Gabbert on the road here? No way. Pittsburgh will get ahead early, then pick off Gabbert repeatedly as he makes bad throws trying desperately to play catch-up. Pick: Steelers.

DP: For some reason I am always off on the Steelers so feel free to go against me. My intention is go for a big Steelers win, so I am going contrary and picking a plucky Jax team to hang tight. Or is that purposeful over compensation? Pick: Jax

Houston (+7.5) vs BALTIMORE

TJ: Houston has a ton of injuries, and I didn’t like them all that much to begin with. They’re 3-2, but their only quality win was a squeaker, 17-10 over Pittsburgh at home. I don’t see them going into Baltimore and keeping it close, especially without Mario Williams to pressure Flacco. Baltimore is also coming off a bye, and their defense is rounding into shape (giving up only 11 points per game!). Pick: Ravens.

DP: Everything points to Baltimore: they are coming off a Bye, Houston lost to the Raiders at home last week, the Texans are banged up. If the Doc has learned one thing about betting on the NFL its to always go the opposite way when all signs point in one direction. Pick: Texans

OAKLAND (-5.5) vs Cleveland

TJ: The Raiders are quietly 3-2 with losses to good teams (Bills and Pats) and quality wins against the Jets and Texans. Their D is suspect, but their running game is outstanding, unfortunately matching up very well against my Brownie’s porous run D and anemic offense. Giving up only 5.5 at home seems like a good bet to me. Pick: Raiders.

DP: Not a good match-up for the Browns who are not great against the run and have to go on the road against a Raider team that is playing well right now. I like the Raiders to wear down the Browns and cover late. Pick: Raiders.

New Orleans (-4.5) vs TAMPA BAY

TJ: The Bucs are 3-2, but they don’t seem to have the same mojo they had last year. They aren’t sneaking up on anybody, and that ass-pounding they took from the 49ers has to mess with their psyche a bit. The Saints, on the other hand, have only one loss (to Green Bay) and are scoring 33 points per game with the #2 passing attack in the league. I think the Bucs are in trouble, and the Saints are poised to run away with the NFC South. Pick: Saints.

DP: Vegas is begging you to take the Saints. That should tell you something. Pick: Bucs.

NEW ENGLAND (-7.5) vs Dallas

TJ: Rob Ryan has vastly improved the ‘Boys’ D, but they haven’t seen anything like the Pats yet. It’s great that the Cowboys had an extra week to prepare, but New England’s offense is explosive, and I don’t trust Romo trying to keep up. He’ll make a few mistakes trying to match the Pats’ scoring, and Belichick will make them pay. Interesting stat: the Cowboys are 2-2, but the margins of victory or loss in those four games have been 3, 3, 2, and 4 points. Time for a blowout. Pick: Pats.

DP: One of the best parts of living in Dallas is watching the locals freak out when the ‘Boys struggle. I am anticipating a good week. Pick: Pats.

CHICAGO (-2.5) vs Minnesota

TJ: The Vikings can’t pass. I mean, at all. Usually, a 1-4 team will have decent passing yardage since they must play from behind a lot, but the Vikings are 31st in the league demonstrating that they either don’t trust McNabb to throw much, or that he’s got no one to target even when he has the chance (likely, considering he’s had a couple games with completion percentages under 50%). Chicago’s D has been surprisingly poor, but this week should help. I like the Bears to win in a low-scoring mess at home. Pick: Bears.

DP: The Vikings love to torture their fans, so what would be the most torture. Start 0-4 and then win 2 to give their fans some hope before bottoming out against Green Bay and @Carolina. I smell 2-6 and Christian Ponder after the Bye. Pick: Vikings.

NY JETS (-7.5) vs Miami

TJ: Miami is a dismal team. I know the Jets haven’t lived up to expectations, but they’ve had a tough couple weeks against Baltimore and New England. They should run roughshod over the Dolphins at home. Henne’s out for the season, so they ‘Phins passing game will be nonexistent, and Sexy Rexy should be able to stack the line and shut down the run. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a 17-3 final. Pick: Jets.

DP: The Doc is not sure what he will be doing on Monday night, but there is one thing he knows he WON’T be doing and that’s watching this snoozer. Pick: Jets.