The Bets: Week 3 Recap and Week 4 Bets

The Trouble with Teasers

The Doc enjoys Teasers for their entertainment value. You get the combination of multiple games to watch, lower point spreads to cover, and potentially bigger payoffs. Of course, the problem with Teasers is that their is usually an upset that throws everything off which is why its a suckers bet if your primary goal is winning (my primary goal is entertainment). Week 1, I went 3/3 and won my Teaser. Week 2 I went 5/6 and lost. But Week 3 was just pathetic. I took, New England, San Diego, and Pitt and bought three points and not one of them covered. 0/3 Pathetic. I did make a little of that back by correctly picking The Raiders to cover vs. The Jets, but I have now slipped into the red for the season.

Week 3: -$15
Season: -$3

On to Week 4. Maybe it was being burned on my Teaser last week, but this week I found value mostly in individual games.

Bet To Win
$5.50 $5.00 Football NFL - Tennessee Titans +1 -110 for Game
I like Tennesse and continue to think they are a little under valued. They out-played Jax in a narrow Week 1 loss then beat Baltimore and Denver. Their Defense is 2nd against the pass and 8th against the run. They have a good enough O-line to protect Matt Hasselbeck who can still make some plays (even without Kenny Britt). Their one weakness is running where they are 32nd overall. If they could ever get Chris Johnson untracked, they could be a pretty good team. I continue to like Cleveland's future, but they are still a little shaky. On offense they are 25th and 22nd in passing/running and they are 29th against the run and thats against a Cincy, Indy, and Miami (combined 1-8). Give me the point and the Titans.

$5.50 $5.00 Football NFL - Arizona Cardinals +3 -110 for Game
This feels like a 'let-down' game to by the Giants. They are coming off big wins against St. Louis and Philly and now travel West before two home games against Seattle and Buffalo. Their numbers are kind of middle of the pack 20th passing and 20th against the pass, 15th running and 15th against the run. Arizona mean while is a little undervalued as a home dog. They beat a Carolina team that looks better than we thought and narrowly lost to Washington on the road. Granted the loss to Seattle is not good, but winning road games against Division opponents is always difficult. Arizona's defense isn't great, they haven't been blown out either. I like the Cardinals to keep it close.

$5.50 $5.00 Football NFL - Miami Dolphins +7½ -110 for Game
I think most fans will basically assume that San Diego will win in a blow out because they are the better team, at home, and that Miami has given up. That could happen. But look closer and San Diego's 2 wins are against 0-3 teams. Both wins were at home and neither win by was more than 7 points. Finally, this home game is sandwiched between two divisional opponents (Chiefs last week and @Denver next week), so their focus might not be on the lowly Dolphins. Miami actually played fairly well against the Pats and Texans before late TDs padded the final scores. Finally, the Dolphins BYE is next week and I think they know that if they lose, then the coach will be canned. This feels like a 'kitchen sink' game to me as the Dolphins will be desperate to win. I like Miami to keep it close.

$5.50 $5.00 Football NFL - Denver Broncos +13 -110 for Game
Again, I think the common sense is that Green Bay is the best team in football, is at home, and already has an 8 point win over New Orleans and a 10 win over Chicago. Those numbers are undeniable. Their offense is great and will likely put up 30+ points. So the question is can the Broncos keep it under 2 TDs? Well Green Bay is first against the run (55.o yards/gm) mainly because they are second worst against the pass (359.3 yards/game). I think Kyle Orten will be able to pass a little against the Packers. Finally the Packers are between big games (@Chicago last week and @Atlanta next week). I see them slipping ahead early then losing focus and letting the Broncos score late to cover.

Future/Prop $5.00 $30.00 Football Futures - Divisions Tennessee Titans +600 for To Win the AFC South
This bet was actually made late last week. I was looking through the futures and saw that Houston was an amazing -600 to win the AFC South. I mean would you feel good about putting $600 on the Texans to win the AFC South to win $100? Checking the other teams I saw Tennessee at +600. I actually like the Texans but I don't see how they are giving 6:1 to the Titans. Same analysis as above. The Titans have pretty good line play and a stable, if unspectacular, veteran QB. If they can get anything from Chris Johnson, they have a legit shot at 10 wins and the division. So I dropped $5 and will keep an eye on them for the rest of the season.

Week 3 Picks

TJ: The Doc is in California this week collecting diploid DNA from collaborators and giving haploid DNA to hookers, so we’ve just got his picks this week, no analysis.  Hopefully, he’ll come back next week with some insight (and a scorching case of herpes).

PHILADELPHIA (-7.5) vs NY Giants

TJ: Even if Vick can’t play this week (and he will), I have no faith in the Giants to put up the kind of points it takes to keep up with the Eagles.  They simply no longer have an elite defense, and their offense sputters, especially with Eli lacking confidence and the running game slowing down.  We’re only two weeks in, so the stats don’t mean too much yet, but Philly has the #2 rushing attack in the league, and even though the Giants run defense has played well against the ‘Skins and Rams, LeSean McCoy is on another level, and will rack up yards against them.  Pick: Eagles.

DP: Eagles

Detroit (-3.5) vs MINNESOTA
TJ: The Lions have a cake schedule in the first 11 weeks and could easily be 8-3 heading into a final six games that feature Packers twice plus Saints and Chargers.  Detroit could be dangerous.  I don’t like anything about the Vikings except Peterson, and he’s not going to be able to carry this team on his back.  This line should be bigger.  Pick: Lions.

DP: Lions

CAROLINA (-3.5) vs Jacksonville
TJ: I classically hate both of these teams, and that hasn’t really changed, despite Cam Newton’s heroics.  That being said, the guy is due either for a win, or to come crashing back to earth statistically.  I say Jacksonville sucks enough to get Newton his first W, but mostly because their offense will put up about 3 points total.  Pick: Panthers.

DP: Panthers

NEW ORLEANS (-3.5) vs Houston
TJ: If Houston wins this week, I’ll take it all back, but up until now, I just refuse to take them seriously.  The Saints played the Pack close, and blew out the Bears, and I think Brees and those receivers are in rhythm now.  I think they’ll put up too many points against Houston, and prevent them from taking advantage of their rushing attack.  Pick: Saints.

DP: Saints

BUFFALO (+8.5) vs New England
TJ:  I love the way Buffalo has played in the first few weeks, and I’m especially fond of Ryan “The Amish Cannon” Fitzpatrick.  I don’t think they can beat New England, but I think they can score points and keep it closer than 9.  Pick: Bills.

DP: Pats

San Francisco (+2.5) vs CINCINNATI
TJ: I don’t like a single thing about either of these teams.  Shit QB’s, shit defenses.  Maybe Harbaugh will turn out to be a good NFL coach, but it’s too early to tell.  Guess I’ll take the home team.  Pick: Cincy.

DP: Bengals

CLEVELAND (-2.5) vs Miami
TJ: I don’t feel too good about my Browns, but Miami is a wreck.  Aside from Chad Henne, they have no bright spots at all, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Brandon Marshall screws Henne up by the end of the season, too.  I’m disappointed with the Browns’ rushing defense and their offense in general, and I don’t see how they’re really going to improve over the course of the season.  Again, without much else to go on, I’ll take the home team.  Pick: Browns. 

DP: Browns

Denver (+6.5) vs TENNESSEE
TJ: I just think Tennessee is a mess.  Hasselbeck was bad last year in a situation in which he was comfortable and respected, so I can’t see how he can be good as the new guy on a messy team in a tougher division.  Denver’s not much better, but they seem to be on the right track, so I’ll take ‘em with the points.  Pick: Broncos.

DP: Titans

ST. LOUIS (+3.5) vs Baltimore
TJ: Baltimore’s week 1 win over the Steelers seems kind of flukey now.  They can’t pass and they can’t defend the pass, and that makes them vulnerable, especially if they fall behind early.  Shit, they made Kenny Britt look like Jerry Rice last week.  The Rams have some issues (worst rushing defense in the league), but I like them getting points at home, especially if they can score first.  Pick: Rams.

DP: Ravens

OAKLAND (+3.5) vs NY Jets
TJ: The Jets don’t really scare me this year.  Sanchez still struggles with control, and Tomlinson is a year older.  On the flip side, The Raiders lost Asomugha, and their defense has really suffered for it.  I guess I have to go with the home dog here.  Pick: Raiders.

DP: Raiders

Kansas City (+14.5) vs SAN DIEGO
TJ: This line can’t get high enough to make me take the Chiefs.  They’re showing no signs of life at all, and I like San Diego to walk away with the division.  Pick: Chargers.

DP: Chargers

Green Bay (-3.5) vs CHICAGO
TJ: I still think Green Bay is the best team in the NFC, maybe the best team in the league, but the pass defense needs to get it’s shit together.  Jay Cutler is generally a sure cure for any passing defense’s ills.  The Bears are coming back to earth after one of the luckiest seasons in recent memory last year, and this should be a blowout loss.  Pick: Green Bay.

DP: Packers

TAMPA BAY (-1.5) vs Atlanta
TJ:  I like Tampa Bay and want to see them do well, but that rushing defense is scary bad.  Atlanta should be able to take advantage with Turner, but their crappy pass D could give it all back if Freeman plays well.  Both of these teams won more games than they should have last season, and I don’t think either one is a serious superbowl contender, so I’m sticking with my pattern and taking the home team.  Pick: Bucs.

DP: Falcons

Arizona (-3.5) vs SEATTLE
TJ:  This game sucks.  I like Arizona to win the division, so I’m going to take them to win, even though it’s in Seattle, where the Seaskanks go from super-shitty to a-little-shitty.  Pick: Cards.

DP: Seaskanks

INDIANAPOLIS (+10.5) vs Pittsburgh
TJ: Indy is bad, I admit that now, but they’ve got to play a little better eventually, and 10.5 is a lot of points to be getting at home.  I think Pittsburgh plays conservative and wins by 10, so I’ll take Indy to cover. Pick: Colts.

DP: Steelers

DALLAS (-6.5) vs Washington

TJ: Washington is a paper tiger.  Rob Ryan’s defense will screw with Grossman’s tiny Gator brain, and he’ll throw three picks.  Romo (hero for now) will do just enough to win, and will hold on to the ball.  Pick: ‘Skins.

DP: Redskins

The Bets: Week 2 Recap and Week 3 Bets

The Doc was right about only one thing in Week 2- that he shouldn't bet on any games. The Doc went a pitiful 6-10 (while The Juice had a nice 10-6 week to win the pool). Luckily he made only one $5 bet, a 6 team teaser at 4:1 odds. The Doc went 5/6, but alas, the Tennessee Titans upset of the Baltimore Ravens ended any hope of a nice pay out.

On to Week 3, where the Doc does see some value:

Spread $5.50 $5.00 Football NFL - Oakland Raiders +4½ -110 for Game
This seems like a perfect 'trap game' for the Jets. They cleaned up on a terrible Jax team last week and now travel west for their first road game. Oakland is at home for the first time and I think they catch the Jets looking ahead to their Sunday night showdown with the Ravens next week. The Raiders rely on the running which negate some of the advantage that the Jets have with Darrell Revis. I like the Raiders to at least keep this one within a Field Goal.

Week: -$5
Season: +$12


Teaser $20.00 $40.00 Football NFL
- New England Patriots -6 for Game
- Pittsburgh Steelers -8 for Game
- San Diego Chargers -12.5 for Game

The only thing you can tell about the NFL so far is who is gonna be really bad and the Colts and Chiefs are gonna be terrible. I like for the Steelers and Chargers to smoke those two teams. For the final game, I took the Pats over the Bills. I like what the Bills are doing, but I think they will get a cold dose of reality this week when they play a real team in the Pats. I ended up buying 3 points so the Pats only need to cover by a TD, the Steelers get below 10 points and the Chargers get below two TDs. At 2:1 odds, I felt so good about this bet that I put $20 on it.

Good Luck this week!

Week 2 Picks

DP: Week 2 Theme: I have no fucking idea so I'll take the points!

WASHINGTON (-4.5) vs Arizona

DP: Arizona struggled last week at home against a crappy Carolina team and now has to travel across the country. I'll take the 'Skins but I'd never lay real money on it.

TJ: Arizona is my NFC West pick this year, and if they’re going to come through for me, they need to beat shitty teams like Washington on the road.  The Cardinals’ pass defense is scary bad, but I’ll rely on Rex Grossman to make them look a little better this week.  Pick: Cards.

Kansas City (+8.5) vs DETROIT

DP: I know KC looked bad at home and Detroit won on the road, but since when have the Lions become 8.5 point favorites? I'll take the points and hope for a close game.

TJ: I think Kansas City has the potential to go from first to worst in the AFC West this year, and although I’m not sold on the Lions, even I can’t deny they looked great last week.  8.5 seems like too many points, until you remember how horrible KC’s pass defense is.  I’ll take the Lions.

Tampa Bay (+3.5) vs MINNESOTA

DP: I watched most of the Minnesota-San Diego game last week and I was not all that impressed with Minnesota. Take away the kick-off return for a TD and you're left with 10 points on offense. Yikes. The good news for Minny is that Tampa doesn't have much of a defensive front yet, so maybe McNabb and Peterson will get untracked. Still, I'll take the points as I think Tampa Bay is frisky.

TJ:  I still don’t like Minnesota, and I think Tampa will show some fire after a tough loss last week.  I expect them to generate a lot of turnovers and win a close game.  Pick: Tampa.

Green Bay (-10.5) vs CAROLINA:

DP: 10.5 is a lot of points, but I think we'll see a much more accurate picture of Cam Newton and it’s not gonna be a pretty picture. I'll take the Pack.

TJ: Yeah, I agree that Carolina is absolutely terrible, no matter how well CaM Newton plays.  And he won’t play well against the Pack’s pressure defense.  Aaron Rodgers should have another career afternoon, and they should cover the 10.5 with ease.  Pick: Pack.

Chicago (+6.5) vs NEW ORLEANS

DP: Another big line I don't understand. I like the Saints chances of winning, but covering by a TD? That's a lot. I'll take the Bears.

TJ: I also think this line is too high, but it’s still not high enough to make me take the Bears on the road.  Consider this more of a pick against the Bears than for the Saints.  Pick: Saints.

BUFFALO (-4.5) vs Oakland

DP: Everything points against the Raiders: on the road, short week, 1 PM start. Normally, I'd be contrarian, but I actually like Buffalo's spirit. If the Bills can slow down the Raiders rushing game, I like Fitzpatrick to cover the points.

TJ: There are things to like about the Raiders, but playing on the road isn't one of them.  I don't think the Bills will play the rest of the season as well as they did last week, but they have a couple good skill position players, and maybe they have the AFC West's number.  Pick: Bills.

Cleveland (-2.5) vs INDIANAPOLIS

DP: The Juice may call it a reverse jinx, but I didn't like what I saw from the Colts last week. They just look beat. I like the Browns to cover on the Road.

TJ: Man, I knew the Colts’ offense might be a little anemic without Manning, but I didn’t realize their defense was that bad.  They looked atrocious against Houston.  Meanwhile, the Browns ruined any chance they had at competing for a playoff spot with that loss to shitty Cincy.  I expect them to bounce back a bit here, and I think 2.5 isn’t too much to cover.  Pick: Browns.

Jacksonville (+10.5) vs NY JETS

DP: Another surprisingly big line. I didn't see anything about the Jets that made me think they can cover 10.5 points against a game Jax team.

TJ: Although I agree that the Jets weren’t that impressive in week 1, I think their defense will give Jacksonville fits.  The Jets should generate multiple turnovers and give up few points, so I’ll take them to cover even a line as huge as this.  Pick: Jets

Seattle (+14.5) vs PITTSBURGH

DP: I just can't give away 14.5 points to a team that looked old on defense. I think the 'Skanks can keep it from being a blow-out.

TJ: My lovely wife pointed out something to me about this game: in their 9 regular season losses last year, the margins of loss were: 17, 17, 30, 34, 15, 18, 19, 16, 23.  Not a single loss by less than 15 points.  And I think they’re a worse team this year!  I’ll give the 14.5 and take the Steelers!

Baltimore (-6.5) vs TENNESSEE

DP: This game scares the crap out of me. It screams 'Let down' game for the Ravens. But I'll take the Birds because I think the Titans are still a little behind the rest of the league with their new coach, new QB and out of shape RB.

TJ: I’m not overreacting to Baltimore’s Week 1 performance.  They’ll still have trouble on the road against Tennessee.  But 6.5 isn’t as big a line as I would have expected, so I’m going to shy away from the Titans and their clusterfuck situation.  Pick: Ravens.

SAN FRANCISCO (+3.5) vs Dallas

DP: Every summer Peyton Manning takes one weakness in his game and works on it. Every summer Tony Romo works on his golf game. It’s that lack of discipline that leads to 4th quarter melt downs like we saw on Sunday. This is my upset special of the week. San Fran sneaks up on an unprepared Cowboy team and wins a close one at home.

TJ: I like the Doc’s logic, and I agree that Romo just hasn’t become an elite QB yet.  However, San Fran’s win last week was over a terrible Seahawks team, and I expect Rob Ryan’s defense to give Alex Smith some problems.  Likewise, I think Romo will look good against the 49ers’ weak defense.  Pick: Dallas.

Houston (-2.5) vs MIAMI

DP: Hard to tell how good Houston is after the Colts mailed in last week’s game. I will stand by my pre-season prediction, that they will be pretty good. Pick: Houston

TJ: I’m not sold on Houston, and I like this line for Miami.  If Houston runs really well and kills Miami, I’ll change my mind, but until then, I’ll stay skeptical.  Pick: Dolphins.

San Diego (+6.5) vs NEW ENGLAND

DP: I think you can throw against the Pats. I like Phillip Rivers to have a big game and keep things close enough to cover.

TJ: Bullshit.  New England will roll, and Ochocinco will contribute more than one catch.  Brady will make sure of both.  Pick: NE.

Cincinnati (+5.5) vs DENVER

DP: This line surprised me too. The Broncos struggled last week and the Bengals won on the road (even if it was the Browns). I'll take the points and hope for a close, ugly game.

TJ: Don’t like either team, but 5.5 seems like a lot of points for a team that won last week.  I actually fear Gronkowski, and think that Dalton’s injury may be the best thing that happens to Cincy all year.  Pick: Bengals.

ATLANTA (+2.5) vs Philadelphia

DP: Philly certainly looked like the better team last week, but I think you can run on the Eagles. I like Atlanta to pound Michael Turner and come away with a surprising win.

TJ:  I also like Atlanta at home getting points.  This might be a learning experience for Philly, and I think they’ll get better as the year goes on, but they’re not ready for a tough road game like this yet.  Pick: Atlanta.

St. Louis (+6.5) vs NY GIANTS

DP: No game exemplifies Week 2's theme better than this game. Neither team looked good and both have a lot of injuries. I'll take the points and hope that the Rams can keep it close.

TJ: I don’t like taking the Rams travelling to the East Coast, but 6.5 is a lot to give them against what might wind up being a horrible Giants team.  I say Bradford finds a rhythm in this game, and the Rams keep it close.  Pick: Rams.

Week 2: The Bets

I'm not crazy about anything on the board this week. Usually week 2 is full of good opportunities. Most fans over react to Week 1 results, so you can count on good teams that lost in Week 1 to bounce back. This year that would include teams like New Orleans, Atlanta, and Pittsburgh. But look at the match-ups. The Saints are a full-7 favorite against a Bears team that handled Atlanta last week. Sure I don't like the Bears, but -7 is a huge number for a team as unpredictable as the Bears. Everyone has jumped off the Atlanta band wagon, they are 2.5 home dogs to Philly. I would probably take the points with anyone but New England or Philly. Philly's team speed in the dome plus Michael Vick coming back to Atlanta scream "STAY AWAY" to me. That leaves Pitt a 14.5 home favorite to Seattle. Sure Seattle stinks and Pitt is unlikely to have 7 turnovers again, but no way do I feel comfortable with them covering over 2 TDs. Yikes.

A couple of other teams that looked good in Week 1 are Buffalo, Detroit, and Washington. Once again you might be tempted to go against them figuring they won't pay that good again, but how do you take teams like Oakland, KC, and Arizona all going East to play?

Do I trust Houston to cover 3.5 at Miami? Not really, Miami threw all over New England and Houston still has issues in the secondary.

Indy bouncing back against Cleveland? I saw no signs of life in Indy but I have no trust in Cleveland either.

Denver covering 3.5 at home? I don't feel good about that, but I hate Cincy too.

New York and St Louis are both way too unpredictable.

Finally, I decided to lay low and make one small bet mainly for entertainment. It's the kind of bet The Juice would hate too.

Parlay bet $5.00 to win $20.00
Detroit Lions -110 for Game
New York Jets -1 -110 for Game
Baltimore Ravens -110 for Game
Pittsburgh Steelers -7 -110 for Game
Green Bay Packers -4 -110 for Game
New England Patriots +1 -110 for Game

Basically its a 7.5 point parlay on 6 teams that I expect to win. The 7.5 points gets Detroit, the Jets, Ravens and Pats down to basically even. That leaves Pitt to cover 1 TD and Green Bay to win by at least 4 at Carolina.

Could one of those teams get upset? Sure, but at 4:1 it will keep me busy all afternoon.

Week 1 Betting Recap

Bet: Parlay $10.00 $26.00 Football NFL - Minnesota Vikings +8½ -110 for Game plus
Over 42.5
Result: Lost $10. I was right that San Diego would not cover, but I thought Minnesota would score more points so I missed the over by 1.5 points.

Bet Money Line $5.00 $5.50 Football NFL - Tennessee Titans +110 for Game

Result: Another tough loss ($5). I thought Tennessee would win out right and gave away the points (and a push) for a straight money line bet. Watching Tenn try and mount a 4th quarter come back was the worst part of Sunday. Still I only bet $5 so I can live with myself.

Bet: Teaser $10.00 $18.00 Football NFL - Houston Texans -2½ -110 for Game, plus
NY Jets +1 for Game, NE Patriots -1.5 for Game

Result: Win $18.00. Houston and New England easily covered, the Jets were the only team I had to sweat out. Luckily the 6 point tease and a timely Tony Romo collapse propelled me to victory.

Bet: Money Line $12.50 $5.00 Football NFL - Green Bay Packers -250 for Game

Result: Win $5. Another defending SuperBowl Champ wins at home.

Spread $10.00 $9.09 Football NFL - Buffalo Bills +6 -110 for Game

Result: Win $9.09. There were a lot of underdogs who won big games this week (Bears, Bengals, Oakland) but the Bills had the most impressive upset of the Week.

Total For Week: +17.09
Total For Season: +17.09

Week 1: The Bets

Here are the Doc's Weekly Bets. Feel free to go the opposite!

Type Bet to Win

Parlay $10.00 $26.00 Football NFL - Minnesota Vikings +8½ -110 for Game plus
Over 42.5
Money Line $5.00 $5.50 Football NFL - Tennessee Titans +110 for Game plus
Teaser $10.00 $18.00 Football NFL - Houston Texans -2½ -110 for Game, plus
NY Jets +1 for Game
NE Patriots -1.5 for Game
Money Line $12.50 $5.00 Football NFL - Green Bay Packers -250 for Game
Spread $10.00 $9.09 Football NFL - Buffalo Bills +6 -110 for Game

The Doc Explains his Logic: My research continues to show that San Diego is over rated and Minnesota is under valued so 8.5 seems like a lot of points to give. Both offenses are pretty good, so I like the over here as a parlay. I can easily see a 31-24 kind of game.

I can't believe that Tenn is getting two points considering the mess Jax is in right now after firing their starting QB and promoting Luke McKown. I think Tenn wins outright which is why I dropped the two points and went straight money line.

Houston, the Jets, and Pats all seem like safe picks to me this week so I took a 6 point teaser to get the spreads down to where I feel comfortable. Houston should blow out Indy without Manning, the Jets should have no problems at home on 9/11 against a Dallas team with injuries on the offensive line and in the secondary, and the Pats should beat a Dolphins team that looks completely lost by at least 3 points.

The defending Superbowl Champ has won every game since going to the Thursday night Kick-off format. The Saints probably will be able to move the ball, but my research really likes the Packers offense against the Saints Defense so I don't think the Saints can win on the road. Still I wasn't confident about the -4.5 so I just took the moneyline.

Finally, Buffalo getting 6 against a KC team that seems primed to slide this year and has QB questions seems like a good bet. Buffalo was up 17-0 on Jax in the 3rd preseason game with the starters in. Ryan Fitzpatrick went 11/12 for 165 yards and 2 TDs. KC was scoreless in their 3rd pre-season game with starters and Matt Cassel was 6/13 for 59 yards.

Week 1 Picks

NFL Week 1: You have to love the NFL schedulers. Almost every game this week has some intriguing twist and two of the games that are kinda crappy are on Monday night!

At Green Bay               -4.5      New Orleans                47.5

DP: Since going to the Thursday night opener, the defending champ has won every game. The only real question is can the Packers cover? GB’s defense is super fast which means they are a bad match up for New Orleans. Meanwhile the Packers offense should have no problems driving against an aging Saints D. Pick: Pack

TJ:  I know it’s early in the season, but I really expected this line to be higher.  The Pack hold every advantage in this game including home field (which the books usually say is worth 3 points), so I would have guessed -6 or -7.  At -4.5, the Packers are the clear choice.

At Baltimore                -2.5      Pittsburgh      36.5

DP: I think Pitt is the better team, so even on the road, I’ll take the Steelers and the points. Pick: Steelers

TJ: The Ravens defense is old, and their QB is suspect against tough defenses (like the Steelers).  The Ravens’ only chance is to really establish Ray Rice early, get out to a lead, and milk the clock with a tough running game.  I don’t see that happening against the Steelers, and I see Big Ben connecting with Mike Wallace deep a couple of times, preventing the Ravens from getting comfortable.  Pick: Steelers.

At Tampa Bay             -1.5      Detroit              41

DP: A battle of up and coming teams. I like how Tampa is building for the future, but I have a gut hunch that Detroit is ready to win now. Their defense is ahead of Tampa and Matthew Stafford may not be able to stay healthy all year, but I think he’ll stay healthy for one game. Pick: Lions

TJ: I’d love to see the Lions have a great season, but I’m not ready to hop on the bandwagon yet.  I love their prospects at D-line for the future, but they’re already banged-up, and Tampa is just a year stronger and smarter.  Tampa wins at home.

Atlanta             -2.5      At Chicago       41

DP: Its amazing, these two teams were the top seeds in the NFC last year and this game is getting almost no press because everyone thinks they’ll stink this year. At 3, I’d take the Bears, but at 2.5 I like the Falcons. Pick: Birds.

TJ: The Doc and I rode the Falcons all year last year, and I’m not ready to stop.  I know they’re better at home, but it won’t be snowing at soldier field yet, and the Bears aren’t nearly as good as last year’s record indicates.  I’ll take Atlanta.

At Kansas City             -5.5      Buffalo             39.5

DP: The steam is on Buffalo with the line dropping 1 point recently. I can see either a Bills blow out if Cassel is out and Fitzpatrick catches fire or a sloppy close game. Either way, give me the points. Pick: Bills.

TJ:  This line sucks.  I hate the Bills, but 5.5 is a lot of points to be giving on the road, especially with a banged-up QB, and I never liked the Chiefs to begin with.  I thought they were lucky as hell last year, and I think they’ll come back to earth this season.  Here’s to my first week of hating on the Chiefs: Bills win!

At Houston     -8.5      Indianapolis                43

DP: This one could get ugly fast. I’ll just have to remember the good times. I always knew, it wouldn’t last forever…. Pick: Houston.

TJ: 8.5 points?  Are you kidding me?  Kerry Collins isn’t going to suck nearly as much as people think, and I refuse to jump on Houston’s train.  I won’t believe they’re any good until they win a playoff game.  They have all the expectations, and Indy will play loose.  I won’t give up on the Colts until I see 9 in their loss column.  Pick: Colts

Philadelphia                -4.5      At St. Louis     44

DP: Another home dog that I like. I think the Rams are a team on the move. Their offense should be able to do some things against the Eagles Defense and I will stick with the theory that the league is catching up with Michael Vick 2.0.  Pick: Rams.

TJ: Let’s not get ahead of ourselves.  St. Louis has a bright future, but Philly is more talented than last year, and they were a strong playoff team while St. Louis couldn’t win the worst division in modern NFL history.  Philly will win easily.

At Cleveland                -6.5      Cincinnati       35.5

DP: I like this line a lot better at -6.5. I love the Browns this year and I can’t see Andy Dalton scoring too much in his first game. Pick: Browns.

TJ: I’m a Browns fan, so I don’t want to jinx anything by talking them up.  I think they have a shot to be mediocre, but that’s about it.  I’m happy to say that Cincy sucks, though, and I have no problem giving up 6.5 to such a shitty squad.  Pick: Browns.

At Jacksonville           -3.5      Tennessee     37.5

DP: I suspect this line will move on the news that Garrard is out and Luke Mckown is in. Pick: Tenn.

TJ: I don’t like the Titans, especially on the road, but Jacksonville is bad, and they only got worse by dropping Garrard.  I’ll happily take Tennessee and the points.

NY Giants        -3.5      At Washington            37.5

DP: On the 9/11 anniversary, the Jets get the home game while New York’s other team goes to Washington for the other ceremonial match-up. I have already decided that Washington will be terrible this year and there is no sense backing off now. Pick: Giants.

TJ: Man, this is the third matchup in a row of two poor teams.  The home underdog is a temptation here, though.  I hate to do it, but I’m going to take the ‘Skins.

At Arizona      -6.5      Carolina           37

DP: Who the hell knows, but I can’t bring myself to take Cam Newton on the road, even if he does get 6.5 points. Pick: Cards

TJ: Yeah, the Doc said it, there is no way to take this shitty Panthers team on the road with a rookie QB.  Who knows, maybe Kolb will be for real?  Pick: Arizona.

At San Francisco        -5          Seattle              38

DP: Another strict stay away. I wonder if San Fran is a good destination for David Garrard? As bad as Tavaris Jackson has looked, Alex Smith may be worse. In the third preseason game, Smith had a QB rating of 2.8. I’ll take the points and hope for a low scoring crappy game. Pick: Skanks.

TJ: Yeah, this is five matchups of shitty teams in a row now.  I think I just threw up in my mouth a little.  Gimme Seattle and the points.

At San Diego -8.5      Minnesota      41.5

DP: UPSET SPECIAL! I don’t get the Chargers love. They have a good offense, but terrible coaching and terrible drafts. Minny gets upgrade at QB plus stability at coaching. I love, love, love the Vikings with 8.5 points.

TJ: Doc, please make your picks before you share a rock with the latest crack-addict in the psych ER.  Minnesota sucks.  San Diego is going to be better this year.  8.5 is a huge line, but it’s huge for a reason.  Minny will get killed on the road here.  Pick: Chargers.

At NY Jets        -4.5      Dallas                40.5

DP: The Jets D is good at home and will be pumped up again for the season opener on 9/11. I can’t see the cowboys scoring more than 17. So can Rob Ryan’s defense keep the Jets’ Offense under 22?  I don’t think so. Rob’s defenses take the correct personnel and a lot of time to implement. He has never been better than 28^th in the league in his first year with a new team. Add to that Cowboys problems in the secondary and I think the Jets should cover easily. Pick: J-E-T-S

TJ: The Jets are a better team, and they’re playing at home.  If the Cowboys had any semblance of a run game, I might like them, but they’ll have to completely depend upon Romo, and this Jets D will eat him alive.  Jets are the pick.

Monday Night Football

                                                           

New England               -6.5      At Miami          45.5

DP: Chad Henne has played better and Miami was embarrassed at home against the Pats last year so do I dare take the 6.5 points at home? I just can’t. I think Belichek and Brady are focused for one last run and the Pats have had some nice drafts lately. Pick: Pats

TJ: Yeah, this is a no-brainer.  Even on the road early, I like the Pats to light it up.  I won’t be shocked to see one of those 2007-style 48-10 Pats thrashings.  Easy pick: New England.

At Denver       -3.5      Oakland           40

DP: Denver is another team that I have picked out with my analysis. They get some players back from injury, get stability at coaching and QB, and drafted Von Miller who should be able to play right away. Whatever progress the Raiders made last year was squandered on another terrible off-season. Pick: Broncos

TJ:  I don’t like the Broncos nearly as much as the Doc, and I think the Raiders will keep up with their surprising mediocrity.  They’ll win this one on their way to another 8-win season.  Pick: Oakland.

Preseason Predictions

NFL Division and Playoff Predictions: 2011-2012

NFC EAST

DP: I don’t think the Eagles will be quite as good as the hype but I can see a 11-5 season and Division title. They have speed all over the offense and their secondary is good enough to allow for ‘coverage sacks’. The one worry is offensive line where they will start 2 rookies. Of course, that is the same chief complaint about #2 Dallas. The ‘Boys cleared out some under performing players on the O-line and are going young. Secondary is their other big concern. But they still have a lot of talent and I think that Jason Garrett still has their attention. I give the Giants some chance to surprise people. They have good talent on both the Offensive and Defensive lines which will always keep them competitive. I am not sure if the passing game and the secondary will be enough to get to the play-offs this year. As I have stated before, the Redskins are one of the most talent- depleted teams in the league. I don’t like the Shanahans as coaches and I am unconvinced by their QB options (Beck or Grossman). I can seriously see them contending for the top pick.

1. Philly

2. Dallas (WC)

3. NY Giants

4. Washington Redskins

TJ: I have the Eagles running away with the East, mostly because the other teams in the division just don’t have the talent to keep up.  But they’re obviously one Michael Vick injury away from scrapping for the division.  I think they’re defense has a ton of talent and great coaching, so even without the offensive fireworks Vick can generate, the Eagles would still be my pick to win the division.  The Cowboys seem like the same team they were last year, but last season was a nightmare of bad luck, bad coaching, and bad attitude.  They have tons of room for improvement, and the ball will have to bounce their way a little more often this year.  Under the right circumstances, they could steal the division, and I think they’ll definitely be in the hunt for the Wild Card.  I think this is the year the Giants fold and Coughlin finally loses his job.  They seem to have stood still or regressed at every position, and they weren’t that good last year.  The Redskins are a travesty.  Time for Snyder to rebuild (again).

1. Philly

2. Dallas (WC)

3. NY Giants

4. Washington Redskins

NFC SOUTH

DP: I don’t think Atlanta will go 13-3 again, but they should be good enough to win the division. I am not convinced that Julio Jones will make much of a difference. He is fast, but has bad hands. I love what Tampa Bay is doing using the draft to build a perennial contender. I don’t think they win 10 games again, but I can see 8-8 or 9-7. From my research, it looks like the Saints are going to slip a little. The defense was a little shaky at times last year and I don’t see it getting any better. They have not drafted well and have no depth. I think the offense will actually miss Reggie Bush. Without him, they don’t have a player that can really force mismatches. I do like Drew Brees to pass for a lot of yards and I like Mark Ingram to rush for 1000 yards and 10 TDs and win the rushing title. I don’t see a return trip to the play-offs though as I think they are also stuck in the 8 or 9 win range. Cam Newton is not ready for the NFL yet and I think it will be another long year for the Panthers.

1. Atlanta

2. Tampa Bay

3. New Orleans

4. Carolina

TJ: The Doc and I agree on this division as well, but I think Atlanta will be just as good as last year.  Maybe 11 or 12 wins due to some reversal in luck, but they’re point differential should be just as good, and that dome advantage should see them to an easy division championship.  I say Tampa Bay keeps doing everything right and wins the tough games, so 9-10 wins and a WC spot seem like a real possibility.  One more receiving threat and a couple defensive standouts could make this team a real contender.  The window has closed for the Saints.  I don’t think losing Bush hurts as much as the defense that is clearly slipping.  They’re going to get lit up a few times this season.  Carolina was a joke last year, and Cam Newton could be the best rookie QB to ever play and it still wouldn’t be enough to rescue this team.

1. Atlanta

2. Tampa Bay (WC)

3. New Orleans

4. Carolina

NFC NORTH

DP: Green Bay is deep, talented, and has continuity. I think 11 or 12 wins are in the cards and a division title. The Lions seem to be the band-wagon pick this year and that’s fine. Their defense looks fast and active and their offense should be pretty good. I have no concerns about Matthew Stafford’s health. I think he plays 14 or 15 games. If Detroit slips, Minnesota could slide into the #2 spot and contend for the play-offs. For now, I believe Donovan McNabb can still be a productive QB and that the problem in Washington was the Shanahans. Their O-line is not great, but if McNabb’s veteran presence can keep some the pressure off the line, I think they could be a productive offense with Adrian Peterson and Bernard Berrian. They can still rush the passer and they finally have some stability at coach. The Bears over achieved last year and I don’t see them being as lucky this year. Their drafting has also been terrible in recent years and they have no depth. I think they are due for 6-10.

1. Green Bay

2. Detroit- WC

3. Minnesota

4. Chicago

TJ: Well, the Doc is right, it’s hard to argue against the Packers.  They dealt with a ton of injuries last year, so they have to be healthier this season.  Great QB, stellar defense, and finally healthy at running back.  They’re the class of the NFC North.  I don’t buy the hype in Detroit.  That awesome D-line is already banged up, and the O-line wasn’t great to begin with.  Unless Travis Best has a breakout season, I see them as a 7-9 or 8-8 team.  Chicago was super lucky last year, and that won’t happen again.  Their skill players on offense are OK, but they have a weak O-line, and that defense is aging rapidly.  6-10 might be right.  Minnesota is where I disagree with the Doc.  This team has fallen far and fast, and McNabb is good but not good enough to rescue them.  I see this as another poor season for them as they try to figure out their long-term plan.  For L.A.

1.     Green Bay

2.     Detroit

3.     Chicago

4.     Minnesota

NFC WEST

DP: Who the hell knows about the West. I will go with the Rams for now as I think they have the best QB and coach and because I think the GM is building a team instead of collecting players (like Seattle). The real question mark is how long will it take Bradford to master Josh McDaniel’s new offense. People remember Arizona’s crappy QB play last year, but they forget that the defense was pretty terrible as well. Kolb may be an improvement, but I can’t see much more than 6 wins. Everything I have heard from San Francisco has been bad. I like Harbaugh, but it will take more than a year to turn this around and their drafting has not been very good. I hope the Seattle fans enjoy their play-off victory last year. It could be their last one for a while

1. St. Louis

2. Arizona

3. San Francisco

4. Seattle

TJ: Last year, this was the worst division in modern NFL history.  I think they’ll improve (hard not to), and I think Arizona will lead the pack.  I really wish they’d have improved the defense in free-agency, but this was a superbowl team not long ago.  Kolb will improve the offense, and they’ll get a lot out of Beanie Wells (as much as I hate to hype an OSU guy).  I say they go 9-7 and take the West.  St. Louis won’t be far behind, and I think they’re building a great base for the future.  The future isn’t here yet, though, and they’ll win 7 or 8.  Seattle is making some really confusing roster moves, and I think they regress a bit.  Hey, Pete Carrol, I thought NFL coaches were supposed to improve in their second job!  I also like Harbaugh ( a Michigan man), but the 49ers have a long way to go to be competitive.

1.     Arizona

2.     St. Louis

3.     Seattle

4.     San Fran

AFC EAST

DP: I think New England has had a few really nice drafts in a row and it will start to pay off. I think the Jets are still a little over rated. They didn’t really get any better in terms of players. They resigned Santonio Holmes, but I think Braylon Edwards to Plaxico Burress will be a downgrade. They haven’t drafted that well and I don’t think they can count on Ladainian Tomlinson to be as productive as he was last year. Their one real hope to get better is that Larry Moore (Peyton Manning’s former mentor) can improve Mark Sanchez’s accuracy. I think there is too much uncertainly at coach and QB for Miami to really thrive. Buffalo will probably play better but they are still a mess and I can’t see more than 6 or 7 wins.

1. New England

2. NY Jets- WC

3. Miami

4. Buffalo

TJ: Man, I’d like to disagree with the Doc more, but I’m really on the Pats bandwagon this year.  I think they roll over the division and own the Jets.  Speaking of the Jets, I’ll bet a few more people solve those Rex Ryan defensive schemes this year, and Sanchez’s constant overthrowing leads to more picks than last season.  I think they’re too talented to miss out on the playoffs, but not good enough to beat the Pats.  Miami and Buffalo are both shit-shows.  I hope Henne has a good season, but there’s nothing else to be excited about on either of these two teams.

1. New England

2. NY Jets (WC)

3. Miami

4. Buffalo

AFC SOUTH

DP: Houston’s offense is still pretty good and Wade Phillips will improve the defense. I like their draft and I like their free agent signings. The rest of the South will stink. Matthew Hasselbeck doesn’t scare me much, but they still have a decent defense and Chris Johnson. They just better hope that Jake Locker doesn’t see the field. Indy has been living on borrowed time as Peyton Manning has been able to hide a lot of their mistakes. Bad drafting, coaching departures, and injuries will finally catch up to the Colts who I see going 6-10. Jacksonville is another confusing team that seems to be trying to ‘win now’ while still mortgaging their future to develop a young QB. These kind of mis-matches between the coaching staff and GM never seem to work out and I see bad things in the Jags future.

1. Houston

2. Tennessee

3. Indianapolis

4. Jacksonville

TJ:  OK, I think the Doc has it all wrong here.  Manning will heal up, and will continue to do just enough to overcome the Colts’ shortcomings.  This is a weak division, and they’ll take it like they always do.  Tennessee lost it’s best defensive player (Babin) and Munchak is untested as a head coach.  Johnson’s holdout was crazy, and I think the football gods will make him pay.  This team will not run the ball the way they have in the past, because they will always be playing from behind.  Houston is everybody’s favorite every season until about week 5, when we remember this team has constantly underachieved and is substantially no different than last year.  And Jacksonville is always my punching bag.  They’re a team that simply shouldn’t exist.

1.     Indianapolis

2.     Tennessee

3.     Houston

4.     Jacksonville

AFC NORTH

DP: I am fairly concerned about the age on Pitt’s defense catching up with them (8 players over 30), but the Steelers traditionally draft well so I think they have the depth to manage. I love everything Cleveland is doing and Colt McCoy seems like he is ready to make ‘the jump’. Their early schedule is easy and I think they build some confidence. They’re gonna need it though because 4 out of the last 5 are against the Ravens and Steelers. As for the Ravens, I think they slip a little this year. Its just feels like they have peaked and are due to have an off season. Cincy is back to being Cincy.

1. Pittsburgh

2. Cleveland

3. Baltimore

4. Cincy

TJ:  It’s true that Pittsburgh D is getting old, but they are so well-coached, they’ll plug in new guys whenever they have to and never miss a step.  They’ll run away with the division this year.  The Ravens won’t stink, and I think they have one more good (not elite) year in their defense.  They’ll win the games they need to get to 11-5 and a Wild Card spot.  Cleveland will improve, and I have a definite man-crush on Colt McCoy, but the running game can’t be as good as last season, and they’ll have trouble getting past 7 wins.  Cincy was always Cincy.

1.     Steelers

2.     Ravens (WC)

3.     Cleveland

4.     Cincy

AFC WEST

DP: The Broncos have improved at coach and on defense getting Von Miller in the draft and Elvis Dumervil coming back at injury. I think those two will form a formidable pass rush. On offense, I think I can envision a productive combination of Kyle Orten and a few packages with Tim Tebow. The first 4 games are favorable and I can see the Broncos gaining some momentum early. Everyone loves the Chargers and I don’t see it. Their coaching is bad. Their drafting has been bad. The players seem unhappy and unmotivated (after signing all of their free agent deals). The only way that they have significantly improved is the kick-off rule change that will help their terrible special teams. Phillip Rivers is still great but I see some real 2010 Dallas Cowboys potential here. I still like KC, and I think they have a good future, but I think they slide a little this year. They needed some luck and trick plays to score enough points last year, but they lost their offensive coordinator and have to incorporate a couple of new wide receivers. Oakland, like Cincy, is back to being as dysfunctional as ever.

1. Denver

2. San Diego- WC

3. Kansas City

4. Oakland

TJ:  The only thing the Doc and I agree on in this division is KC sliding.  I think San Diego has a good young running back, and their TE and WR combos will finally be healthy enough for that offense to put up the kind of points they need to make up for a sub-par defense.  I think San Diego is a good team, while KC is a barely decent team that got very lucky last year.  They won’t get the same play out of Cassel this season, they won’t sneak up on anybody, and I think their head coach is a nutcase, and Charlie Weis (as much as I dislike him from his Notre Dame tenure) was the reason for their offensive success.  They drop off to 8-8 and watch the playoffs on TV.  Oakland may actually improve a bit on offense, but they lost a lot on defense (especially at corner), and will not compete for a playoff spot.  Denver is still a wreck after the McDaniels debacle.  They have no direction or talent on offense, and their defense is suspect at best.  I see Denver battling Oakland for the cellar in this division, with both teams winning 6 games or so.

1.     San Diego

2.     KC

3.     Oakland

4.     Denver

Play-offs

Doctor Psych’s Picks:

NFC

1. Green Bay

2. Philly

3. Atlanta

4. St. Louis

5. Dallas

6. Detroit

WC- Dallas over St. Louis. Atlanta over Detroit.

Divisional- Green Bay over Dallas. Atlanta over Philly.

Conference- Green Bay over Atlanta.

AFC

1. New England

2. Pitt

3. Houston

4. Denver

5. NY Jets

6. San Diego

WC- San Diego over Houston. NY Jets over Denver.

Divisional- New England over San Diego. Pitt over NY Jets.

Conference- New England over Pitt.

Superbowl- Green Bay over New England. Repeat Champs!

The Juice’s Picks:

NFC

1. Green Bay

2. Philly

3. Atlanta

4. Arizona

5. Tampa Bay

6. Dallas

WC- Tampa Bay over Arizona. Atlanta over Dallas.

Divisional- Green Bay over Tampa Bay. Philly over Atlanta.

Conference- Green Bay over Philly.

AFC

1. New England

2. Pitt

3. San Diego

4. Indy

5. NY Jets

6. Baltimore

WC- Baltimore over San Diego. NY Jets over Indy.

Divisional- New England over Baltimore. Pitt over NY Jets.

Conference- New England over Pitt.

Superbowl- New England over Green Bay, for the final trophy of the Brady/Belichek era.