Week 4

The Doc didn't like any of the lines last week and stayed on the sideline. Given the officiating and the results, it was probably a wise move. This week I see more lines I like, but I am worried about the effect of the real refs. I think we might see a lot more penalties as they try to get the games back under control. How will this affect things? I don't know.

As for the actual bets, the Doc has a new strategy he is trying of 'paired teasers'. I'll explain it all in a minute.

$5.00 $19.82 Football NFL - Chicago Bears +160 for Game

Football NFL - Chicago Bears @ Dallas Cowboys Total O 41 -110 for Game

-Dallas and Chicago have a lot in common. Two storied franchises, both with mercurial Quarterbacks, both with a history raising their fans expectations to disappoint them, both loaded with talent, but also with fatal weaknesses. They are both 2-1 but again its difficult to tell much from the games. The Bears beat the Colts and Rams at home, but looked bad @Packers. The Cowboys had a nice win @Giants, but were crushed by the Seahawks and didn't look very good against the Bucs. Either way, one team will win this game to get to 3-1 which will put huge expectations on them for the season. I see the game playing out like this- Cowboys drive the ball early but settle for FGs over TDs. The Cowboys chase Jay Cutler around a lot but he scrambles enough to make long counter strikes against a Cowboys secondary that can give up big pass plays. I like the Bears late and I like the Over as 41 points seems low. I see something Bears 27-23 or 24-20. So I parlayed the Bears money line with the over and got almost 4:1 odds that the Bears will win a moderate scoring game.

$5.00 $6.00 Football NFL - Jacksonville Jaguars +120 for Game

Jax is getting 2.5 at home. I would have put the line more at something like Jax by 1.5 or 2. These two teams seem to be playing very similar right now. Jax lost a close game @Minny and were blown out by Houston (no shame there) but won a close game @Indy. Cincy was blown out by the Ravens (no shame there) and has questionable wins against the Browns and @Redskins. I don't see much separating these two teams and Jax is tough at home. I don't like the Cincy Defense right now, so I don't see how they exploit Jax's one gaping weakness at QB. I like the Jags to win outright at home.

$5.00 $5.00 Football NFL - Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3 Ev for Game

Sticking with my pre-season predictions. Tampa is playing tough right now with a win over the Panthers and tough losses @Giants and @Cowboys. Washington has created excitement with RGIII, but their defense is beyond banged up now. I think Tampa is flat out the better team right now so I will take Bucs at home giving 3 points.

$5.00 $8.00 Football NFL - Cleveland Browns +18½ -110 for Game

Football NFL - Buffalo Bills +11½ -110 for Game

Football NFL - Green Bay Packers -1 -110 for Game

This is a classic 6 point Teaser. I like the Browns to stay within 18 points of the Ravens. A lot of things point to a swift, low scoring game- short week (especially for the Ravens coming off an emotional Sunday night win), Divisional foes, both teams like to run, Brown's defense is sneaky good. I see something like 20-10. Similar logic with Bills and Pats. The Pats have to go on the road, against a Division foe that can pass the ball. Statistically these two teams look similar (of course the Pats had games against the Cardinals and Ravens while the Bills beat the Chiefs and Browns). Still I don't think the Pats are good enough put away a division foe on the road. I like the Bills to get it close. The last one is sort of straightforward. The Packers are mad, at home, and desperate for a win against a reeling Saints Defense. Any kind of win keeps me from losing the bet.

This is my new strategy- the "Paired Teaser". I pick out 3 games that I think will be close and then take 6-7.5 points on both sides. In these cases, you get better that +100 odds, which means you only need one to hit to make money. The beauty of the system is that if you miss one bet, YOU AUTOMATICALLY HIT THAT BET IN THE OPPOSITE DIRECTION. So lets say the Chiefs win by 28 at home against the Chargers. Well then, you loss the second bet, but you have hit Chiefs +6 in the first bet (below). 

$5.00 $9.00

Football NFL - Kansas City Chiefs +6 -110 for Game

Football NFL - St Louis Rams +8½ Ev for Game

Football NFL - Jacksonville Jaguars +8½ -110 for Game

$5.00 $9.00

Football NFL - San Diego Chargers +6 -110 for Game

Football NFL - Seattle Seahawks +3½ -120 for Game

Football NFL - Cincinnati Bengals +3½ -110 for Game

Now you just have to hit the other two bets (Rams +8.5 and Jags +8.5) to make money. If all three games stay within that 12-15 spread, you win both bets. In order to lose both bets, you need one favorite to win by a blow out plus one underdog to win big.

This looks like a good week to break out my strategy. A lot factors point to these games being close. KC and San Diego are Division foes, San Diego is probably playing a little better (wins @Raiders and Titans), but KC is tough at home and I don't think either team is good enough to blow out the other. I see another 23-20 game. Similar logic for Seahawks and Rams. Seahawks playing a little better but are on the road against a Division foe. The Rams will be ready to play a rookie QB who I don't think is capable of winning by more than 7 on the road right now. If Seattle does win, I don't think it will be by more than 3 points. I have already given my analysis of Jax-Cincy, but suffice it to say I see Jax winning a close low scoring game. 

Week 2: The Juice

Bears +6 over Pack

-        I love the Cutler/Marshall reconnection, and I love getting six points with them, even on the road.

Pats -14.5 over Cards

-        I know this line is huge, but this might be the best team in the league playing the worst team in the league.  I see this first few weeks as a coming out party for the Pats new defense, and the Cards are the second victim (RIP Tennessee).

Ravens +1 over Eagles

-        Wait, I’m GETTING a point here?  Even though it’s in Philly, I don’t see how anyone could like the Eagles in this game.  The only thing you can like about that team right now is speed on D, and the Ravens bruising run game is built to eliminate that advantage.  Plus, Vick is now officially a mental case.  Ed Reed should have a field day.

Broncos/Falcons OVER 52pts

-        I don’t know who’s going to win this game, but it’s in a dome, and these two teams are scoring machines with suspect defenses.  I predict a final of 82-79.

DP's Week 2 bets

DP’s Week 2 Bets:

Week 2 is all about forgetting everything you saw the first week and sticking with your pre-season research. The biggest mistake people make is to overreact to Week 1 results. I mean if Dallas had beaten the Giants in week 7 would we be that surprised? Would we write off the Giants or make the Cowboys the NFC East favorites? Doubtful. Upsets happen every week, but people overreact when all you have is one upset to go on. So with that in mind the theme of week 2 is “I’ll take the home team and the points”.

$5.00 to win $5.00   Football NFL - Carolina Panthers +3 Ev for Game      

Carolina is getting 3 at home against a division rival. It’s really hard to cover more than a FG on the road, especially against a Division opponent. I still hate the Saints this season for all of the same reasons- lack of depth, age on the defense, unstable coaching. For some reason the gamblers jumped on the Saints and moved the line to -120 Saints vs. even for the Panthers. I guess the logic is something like “No way the Saints lose two in a row”. That’s not logic, it’s self-delusion. I’ll take the Panthers and the points at home.

$5.50 to win $5.00   Football NFL - Miami Dolphins +2½ -110 for Game    

I’ll admit, this one was hard to bite on. Miami looked pretty bad in week one. About the only good thing you can say about Ryan Tannehill is that he’s not Brandon Weeden. But once again, I am throwing out Week 1 and sitting with my research. While I don’t love the Dolphins, I hate the Raiders (predicting them to have the worst record in the league). The Raiders had a late game on Monday and have to travel across the country against a good Miami defense.

$5.00 to win  $5.00   Football NFL - Seattle Seahawks +4½ Ev for Game 

This is a pretty good example of getting carried away. The Cardinals and Cowboys were both average teams last year. Seattle loses a close game at Arizona by 4. So maybe you’d think the Cowboys would be a slight favorite at Seattle. But no, the Cowboys win a big game at the Giants and all of a sudden they jump to a 4.5 favorite on the road. The early bettors even dropped the line to even for the Seahawks. Are there any indications the Cowboys can reliably travel across the country to beat a tough home team by more than a FG? I mean if you figure that home field is worth about 3 points, then Vegas is saying that the Cowboys would be +7.5 on a neutral site and +10.5 at home. That seems excessive. This is a classic let down game. The Cowboys are coming off a big win against a rival, have to travel across the country, and are looking ahead to opening at home next week. See it with me “I’ll take the home team and the points”

$5.00 to win   $5.00   Football NFL - Atlanta Falcons -3 Ev for Game

I’ve targeted this game for a couple of weeks. I thought that Peyton Manning might do well at home with plenty of time to prepare for a slow Pitt team that was without their starting safety. Now they travel across the country to face a very fast Falcons team inside the Dome. Peyton is notorious for his game prep, so this will be the first real test to see if his teammates are on the same page with him. I bet not. I think the Falcons win by a TD.

           

$5.00 to win  $4.55   Football NFL - St Louis Rams +3 -110 for Game        

Before the season started would the Redskins be a 3 point favorite on the road against anybody? Doubtful. That’s what one big week will do for you. I love RG3, I like his future, and I like his chances to win a close game. But I think we are all getting ahead of ourselves a little bit. Jeff Fischer will have his defense ready for RG3 and I think the offense can slow things down with a combination of running plays and short passes. 

$5.50 to win  $5.00   Football NFL - Tampa Bay Buccaneers +8 -110 for Game    

I don’t have a lot of logic behind this one. I just love the Bucs and historically the Giants don’t really respond until they hit rock bottom and we haven’t see rock bottom yet.

$5.50 to win $5.00   Football NFL - Indianapolis Colts +1½ -110 for Game

This one also looks simple. Minny won last week, Indy was blown out. But take a closer look. Indy is super weak on both lines, which the Bears are primed to exploit. But Minnesota is not the Bears. They don’t have a killer pass rush, they don’t have a top QB that you need to pressure. At the same time, Minnesota’s one big weakness- passing defense- is the one thing that Indy can exploit. They do have a nice passing game. I look for Minnesota to push Indy in the face early, but the Colts and Andrew Luck will counter with long passing plays to pull off a narrow victory. One more time of taking the home dog.

Weekend Recap

The Juice:

Hits- 

$5.00 to win $5.00 - NE (-6.5) @ TEN

Misses- 

$5.00 to win $5.00 - BUF (+2.5) @NYJ

$5.00 to win $5.00 - Pit (+2) @ Den

Plus from Wednesday

$5.00 to win $5.00 - NYG (-4) vs DAL

Pending- None

Overall- minus $10

DP's Take: There were blow-outs to be found on Sunday and The Juice correctly picked the Pats to easily beat the Titans on the road. Its also dangerous to bet on uncertain teams and by far the two most unsettled situations were the Jets and Broncos. The Juice thought he saw value in this chaos, but both teams came out and played well. And oh yeah, Buffalo stinks.

Doctor Psych:

Hits-

$5.50 to win $5.00  Washington Redskins +9½

$5.50 to win $5.00  Tampa Bay +4 vs.Carolina

$5.50 to win $5.00  San Diego Chargers -1½ 

$5.00 to win $13.00 San Diego Chargers +1.5 to win game parlay with Under 46 points

Misses-

$10.00 to win $25.00

Football NFL - Philadelphia Eagles -1½

Football NFL - New England Patriots -1

Football NFL - Minnesota Vikings +2 

Football NFL - Detroit Lions -2½ 

So Far- +$18

DP's Take: I was right on for my analysis of the Redskins over the Saints (my RG III ROY bet also looks pretty good too). My Teaser had a strange life of its own. The Pats easily took care of business so that was never a worry. Twice I thought the bet was dead with Jax and St. Louis up late, but then the Vikings and Lions rallied for wins which just left the Eagles. They managed to rally by 1 point but I needed 1.5 so I lost by half a point. As the game was winding down, I actually knew the bet was dead so I was rooting hard for The Juice's team to pull the upset. Unfortunately we both lost.

I also added two late bets when I saw the lines move. Tampa moved to +4 at home and since I love Tampa this year, I took the points against a Carolina team I saw regressing a little. Oakland also moved to home favorites -1.5, I was pretty shocked by this. I also don't like the over of 46. So I doubled down on my bet for the Chargers and added a Chargers plus Under parlay. So with the Chargers pulling off the 22-14, I ended the week a respectable +$18. Now if I could just avoid Teasers next week, maybe I can keep the streak alive.

Thursday Morning Post-Mortem

Tough loss for The Juice last night as the Cowboys beat the Giants straight-up and The Juice lost his bet.

So what this there to take away from this?

TJ: First off: fuck.  Second, I thought the Giants were the better team throughout that game.  The early fumble by the rookie RB, the blown chances to score TDs from inside the 10, the missed tackles in the 3rd that led to a 45 yd run to keep the Cowboys alive.  All excuses, yes, but I think if that game is played ten times, the Giants win seven or eight.  I still like the Giants to win the division, and the Cowboys to finish 8-8 or worse.  Also: fuck.

DP: I think the lesson is to be careful of second-year coordinators that finally get the personnel to run their schemes. Rob Ryan's blitz happy defense struggled last year with a pair of sub-par CBs. Now with Brandon Carr and Morris Claiborne, he may have the coverage he needs to release the hounds. Look for a big year from DeMarcus Ware who already has 2 sacks.

Week 1 Picks- The Juice

$5.00 to win $5.00 - NYG (-4) vs DAL

As I wrote in my futures bets, I love the Giants and hate the Cowboys this year.  I can’t imagine Dallas is prepared going into game one, and I love Eli to light up their defense, since he’s a guy that can handle the pass rush, read and react.  The Giants are at home, plus they get to play with a chip on their shoulder, since nobody likes them to defend their title.  This line should be much higher, so I like the bet.

DP: I can see the logic behind the bet- Giants are undervalued and since they started the Thursday night game, no defending champ has lost the home opener. Still the Cowboys are a clear stay away for me. They still have a lot of talent, have improved their secondary, and do best when expectations are low. Plus Divisional games are usually close and the ‘Boys also have something to play for as their collapse last year against the Giants is what started the G-Men’s Superbowl drive. 

$5.00 to win $5.00 - BUF (+2.5) @NYJ

Buffalo would have a real chance to be a surprise playoff team if they didn’t have the Pats in their division.  I think they can put up at least a couple TDs against the Jets’ D.  The Jets are in big trouble on offense, and there is no way they score more than 17 points.  Only way they keep this one close is with turnovers for TDs.  It could happen, but I think the Bills rack up 20 points on offense, and the Jets get no more than a single TD and 2-3 FGs.  I love getting the points here.

DP: Another game that I am planning to stay away from. It seems like everyone is jumping off the Jets bandwagon and on to the Bills. I don’t see the value when the Public is leaning so much in one direction. At 4 points, I would be on board with this pick, but at 2.5 I could see if go either way.

$5.00 to win $5.00 - NE (-6.5) @ TEN

Tennessee is a joke.  They don’t have a QB, and the Pats will stack the box to ruin any chance for Chris Johnson to redeem last season’s debacle.  I know the Pats’ O-line is shady at best, but the Titans don’t have the D to take advantage, and Brady should have just enough time to pick them apart.  This one should get out of hand quickly, so I’m happy to give up the points.

DP: I can’t argue with anything you said. I’m baffled this line is less than 7.

$5.00 to win $5.00 - Pit (+2) @ Den

This is probably a stupid bet.  I don’t actually like the Steelers this year, and I think their defense is a pale ghost of what it’s been in the past.  However, this is more of a bet against Denver.  I think they’ll be shaky coming out, Manning will be easy to frustrate, and their defense is good but not great, and will get gashed by the Steelers’ run/pass combo.  Plus, if the Steelers have any heart left at all, they’ll be looking to avenge the playoff nightmare loss to Tebowmania last season with a dick-stomping in Denver.  I’m hoping it comes down to a super-close game, and the two points will be enough to get me the win.

DP: I like the idea behind the bet but not the execution. Weird things can happen in week 1 because teams have had abundant time to prepare for their opponents. I can see Manning picking apart a slow Pitt defense at home and winning the 'Primetime' match-up. I can also see Atlanta struggling to put Kansas City away on the road. If those two things happen, then I am betting heavily on Atlanta in Week 2 when Denver goes on the road. I think the betting public will go crazy with "Manning is Back" fever, but I can see Denver struggling with Atlanta's speed at home in the Dome. 

Doctor Psych's Futures

The Doc’s bets:

$6.25   $5.00    Football Futures - Regular Season Wins Under 8 Wins -125 for Cincinnati Bengals Reg Season Wins

The Bengals were a surprise 9-7 team last year and made the play-offs. They had two first round draft picks and should expect continued improvement from second year players QB Andy Dalton and WR AJ Green. So why am I down on the Bengals. Well they may have been 9-7 last year, but they were 0-7 against play-off teams and their point differential suggested they were playing closer to a 7-9 team. The schedule is tougher- they have the NFC East and AFC West- which means games against the Giants, Eagles, Cowboys and Denver. Potentially winnable games against KC, San Diego, Washington and Jax are all on the road. That leaves home games against Cleveland, Miami, and Oakland as the only games that Cincy will clearly be favored in. Finally they end the season with Dallas, @Philly, @Pitt, Bal, 4 teams that should still be in the play-off race with reason to be motivated. The Bengals need to get 9 wins for me to lose the bet, I feel pretty good about it.

The Juice’s Take: This is a logical argument, and I agree with the bet.  Frankly, I hated on the Bengals all last season, and never believed they were for real, so I definitely think they come back down to earth this year.  The only argument against is that many of the teams you listed as tough beats are actually not that stable.  The Browns are terrible, and there’s a possibility the Steelers and/or Ravens fall off this year, leaving Cincy with an easier division, it’s possible that a couple of the NFC East teams getting hype could actually stink (Eagles/Cowboys), and the AFC West could suck again.  It’s unlikely that all those things happen, and I still think the under is a great bet, but it’s possible.

$7.00   $5.00    Football Futures - Regular Season Wins Under 8 Wins -140 for Kansas City Chiefs Reg Season Wins

KC is another team that needs 9 wins for me to lose the bet. The Chiefs won 7 games last year and were pretty lucky to get that- there point differential was closer to a 5 win team. True they had a rash of injuries, but I'm not in love with their draft picks or free agent signings. The schedule this year brings in the NFC South and AFC North plus I project the Broncos and Chargers to be better. The most winnable games on the schedule are Cincy, Car, Oak, Indy plus a decent chance with road games @TB and @Cleveland. Even if they swept those 6, they would still need 3 wins from Atlanta, @Pitt, Balt, @Buff, @NO, and SD and Denver.

The Juice’s Take: I like this bet for all the reasons I like the Cincy bet.  The same counter argument applies (AFC West could be horrible again, and NO, Pitt, Atl, etc. could fall apart), but it still seems hard to find nine wins for this team.  Plus, Romeo Crennell is coaching them.  Bonus!  

$8.00   $6.15    Football Futures - Regular Season Wins Over 6 Wins -130 for Tampa Bay Buccaneers Reg Season Wins plus
$5.00   $70.00   Football Futures - Divisions Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1400 for To Win NFC South

I like Tampa as a sneaky pick this year. One year after riding an easy schedule and some dumb luck to a 10 win season, the Bucs fell apart last year to pick up only 4 wins. There is some reason for hope though. Teams that fall off so dramatically usually bounce back for several reasons. First, the Bucs had terrible luck with turnovers. They were a league worse in turnover differential at -16 including a spike in QB Josh Freeman's INT rate (4% of passes thrown, up from 1.6%, thanks to Bill Barnwell for the stats). That number has to come down. Secondly, the team clearly quit on their coach. After starting 4-2, the Bucs lost 10 in a row, so I am expecting a a little bump from a new coach. Third, I project the Division to be softening a little. We all know about the chaos in New Orleans, but if you look at the recent draft histories the other teams in the Division, you will see that a few years of bad drafting may be catching up to the depth charts of Carolina (Newton is great, but not much other help), Atl (gave up a lot for Julio Jones), and NO (Gave up their #1 for Mark Ingram, plus they lost their #2 due to Bounty-Gate). Meanwhile, TB had a pretty nice draft with good initial reports on safety Mark Barron, RB Doug Matin, and LB Lavonte David. Finally, let’s look at the Schedule. I need 6 wins for a draw (remember the NFL is a league of mediocrity, only 7/32 teams won fewer than 6 games last year). In addition to a weaker Division schedule, they get home games with Wash, KC, SD, and St Louis plus winnable road games with @Minny and @Oak. In fact, I like the Bucs odds so much that that leads to second bet. $5 on +1400 to win the Division. With a bit of luck, I could see the Bucs make it to 9-7 or even 10-6. If Carolina is a little better and Atl and New Orleans are a little worse (which is likely). Then I see all 4 teams clustered in the 7-9 to 9-7 range. Hey Crazier things have happened.

The Juice’s Take: I, too, love Tampa, and I pimped them in my bets as well.  However, an injury to Josh Freeman or problems adjusting to a new coach could derail the season.  This is a team that quit on their coach last year, and so there could be a reason not to trust them.  But who am I kidding?  I love this bet.

$10.00 $11.00   Football Futures - Regular Season Wins Over 9 Wins +110 for San Diego Chargers Reg Season Wins

The Chargers have certainly under achieved for several years- partly from bad luck and partly because they seem to wilt in the face of high expectations. Which is one of the reasons I like them as a sleeper. The Chargers have been flying under the radar with the departure of Tim Tebow and the arrival of Peyton Manning into the Division, but there is still a lot of talent there. Philip Rivers had a career high 20 INTs last year after averaging 11 the past three years. Even with that he still put up 27 TDs and a QB rating of 88.7. If he gets anywhere near the 30 TD-11 INT range and 100+QB rating he had the previous three seasons, then the Chargers should be much better. The Chargers had a series of tough losses in the middle of the season (including OT losses to KC and Denver that effectively cost them the Division), but finished strong winning 4 out 5 games down the stretch. You may not love the coach or GM, but they have had years of stability which has allowed them to draft consistently without switching up schemes. Finally the schedule isn't great (AFC North and NFC South), but it shapes up well. The Chargers start with winnable games @Oak, Tenn, Atl, and @KC. In addition to the regular slate of KC, Oak, and Denver, other home games include Balt, Cincy, and Carolina. The toughest road trips are @Pitt, @New Orleans and @ Jets. Even if they only go 1-2 in those games, they still have @Browns and @Bucs which makes 2-3 or even 3-2 possible in non-Division road games. Overall I like the Chargers as a sleeper and think they can comfortably get 9 wins with a good chance at more.

The Juice’s Take: Not gonna convince me on this one.  I don’t hate the bet, but I’ll never trust this Chargers team.  Gates isn’t Gates anymore, and they traded Vincent Jackson, so who the fuck is Rivers going to throw to?  I looked at their defensive depth chart and recognized two names: Quentin Jammer and Takeo Spikes.  The rest are scrubs.  I think the window closed for this team a couple years ago, and they could be ready to fall off a cliff.  I don’t hate this bet, but you need 10 wins to win the bet, and I just don’t see it happening.

$10.50 $10.00   Football Futures - Regular Season Wins Under 7 Wins -105 for Oakland Raiders Reg Season Wins plus 
$5.00   $80.00   Football Futures - Regular Season Record Oakland Raiders +1600 for To Finish with Worst Reg Season Record

Oakland finished 8-8 last year but there is reason to suspect that they will fall back to Earth in the first full season with Al Davis running the show. First up, the Division is better. I already wrote about my San Diego love and Denver should be better with Peyton. Even if I don't think KC makes it to 8 wins, they are still a tough opponent at Arrowhead. Secondly, they lost a lot of players in Free Agency since they were so far over the cap including Michael Bush, Kamerion Wimbley and Stanford Routt. They also didn't add much in the draft- because of acquiring Carson Palmer and Terrell Pryor, their first pick was 95th in the draft, yikes. So to recap, their Defense was terrible and is getting worse. Their Offense was alright but lost their leading rusher and is counting on the likes of Carson Palmer, Darren McFadden, and Darrius Heyward-Bay to remain injury free and productive. The schedule doesn't help either. In addition to Denver, KC, and San Diego, the Raiders have cross country trips @Miami, @Atl, @Balt, @Cincy, and @Carolina. The home slate has winnable games against Jax and Cleveland but also includes New Orleans and TB (who I already said I thought would be better). The Raiders have years to go to clean up the mess Al Davis left with no emotional boost from his departure. I can see 4 wins as pretty likely, and at +1600, I think a pretty good argument could be made for the worst overall record as well.

The Juice’s Take: I am ready to drink the haterade in Oakland.  Hard to see any upside for this team, unless it’s the weak division.  If KC really sucks, Manning gets injured, or SD falls apart as I suggested above, the Raiders could go 3-3 or 4-2 in the division.  Then all it takes is a couple other teams fucking up (Miami, NO, Pitt) and a couple wins against Cle, TB, Cin, or Car, and you’re in trouble.  I think that’s a lot of “ifs” though, and I like the bet.  Especially getting 16-1 for worst record.  There are teams more likely to be worse, but none with better odds.

$10.00 $11.00   Football Futures - College Regular Season Wins Over 7½ Wins +110 for Iowa Reg Season Wins

This last one is college football bonus. Yeah, I realize this is a homer pick since I live in Iowa now, but I actually have some good logic backing it up. They lack depth at WR and RB, but have a senior QB and are expecting a breakout season from the TE. Throw in some different looks from new Offensive Coordinator Greg Davis and UI should be a little more difficult to prepare for. The non-conference schedule is not bad. The Hawkeyes start out playing Norther Illinois @ Soldier Field (might as well be a home game) then have Iowa State, Northern Iowa, and Central Michigan at home. That looks no worse than 3-1 with a good chance at 4-0. The Conference slate at home isn't terrible with Minnesota, Penn State, Purdue and Nebraska coming to Iowa City. While road games @Mich and @MSU will be tough, the road schedule also includes Indiana and Northwestern. I think there rage is probably 7-5 on the low end but more likely 8-4 or 9-3 with a slim chance at 10-2. Either way, I like the Hawks to come through now that they are flying a bit under the radar.

The Juice’s Take: This is a great bet.  We know PSU will suck, and I don’t like Nebraska or Michigan nearly as much as their rankings suggest.  Really, only Michigan State seems unwinnable.  This team could easily win 10 games, and I think 9 is very likely.  I see a bowl game for Iowa, and a win for the Doc.

Doctor Pscyh and the Juice are Back!

The good Doctor and the Juice have been busy relocating to the civilized place in the US to live (the Midwest). But now we are back with a new and improved format. Instead of picking every game against the line (which makes no real world sense). We are now picking and choosing our bets. This lets us pick bets we have more confidence and explain our thinking. We can even vary the amount we spend depending on how confident we feel. Hopefully this will keep us all on our toes and make use better bettors. As a bonus, anyone who wants to submit a bet is welcome to post and we will try to comment. Without further ado, here is our first post. The Juice's Futures bets with comments by Doctor Psych. The Good Doc has also made some Futures and those will be posted as soon as the Juice can add his thoughts. Up next week- Week 1 bets!  

The Juice’s Bets: 

Bet $5.00 to win $9.50 Giants to win NFC East Bet 
$5.00 to win $50.00 Giants to win NFC Championship Bet 
$5.00 to win $5.00 Giants to make playoffs

 I’m high on the Giants for all the reasons you might guess: 1) The rest of the division is overrated. Neither the Eagles nor the Cowboys have proven a damn thing. The Eagles have all kinds of off-field issues (starting with the sad death of Andy Reid’s son), their QB WILL get hurt (either a few small injuries, or one big season-ender early), and they are nowhere near as fast on defense as they were a few years ago. The Cowboys are old, the Dez Bryant rules are hilarious, and Tony Romo is still Tony Romo. I’m not going to discuss the Redskins and their non-existent offensive line. They’re fucked. 2) The Giants get to play the “No respect” card. They’re the superbowl champs, and nobody believes they’ll win the division! Think they might play a little pissed off? 3) The Jets take away all their media pressure (which, to be honest, I never thought was that big a deal to begin with). 4) Their greatest strengths (pressuring the QB on D and being balanced on O) match perfectly against their division opponents, and against the biggest threat in the NFC (the Packers). Only the 9ers really scare me as an opponent for the Giants (they run well and have a strong D). 5) I don’t think the fact that they won the whole thing last year hurts their chances this year. It’s gambler’s fallacy to think so. So, I can’t believe they could miss the playoffs (easy money at 1:1), like them to win the division (~2:1), and love getting 10:1 odds on them to win the Conference.

 DP’s Take: I think this is a good value play. The Giants are undervalued basically because people think they are too inconsistent to repeat as Superbowl champs. But this doesn’t mean that they aren’t a good regular season play. In fact the Giants best regular season recently was in the year after they won the Superbowl. The Giants two biggest strengths- great pass rush and unflappable QB- are also the two best assets to have in the playoffs. The bet basically shapes up like this: 1) Miss the playoffs- lose $15 2) Wild-card, but miss Superbowl- lose $5 3) Win NFC East- Win $9.50 ($9.5 + $5 -$5) 4) Go to Superbowl- Win $50 (if Wild-Card) or win $64.50 (if NFC East Champ) The only thing I would change is to double the ‘make the playoffs’ bet to $10. It increases your exposure to $20, but means you break even or make money in 3 out 4 scenarios.  

Bet $5.00 to win $32.50 Colts to place EXACTLY 2nd in AFC South
 I like this bet not so much because I think the Colts are good, as because I think Houston has the division locked up, and Jacksonville is terrible, which means I’m getting better than 6:1 odds on the Colts having a better record than the Titans. I like Munchak as the Titans’ coach and think their D might be improved, but they’re still screwed at QB and their O-line has declined. Both the Colts and Titans have the NFC North and AFC East in non-division play, but the Colts have winnable games at home vs Cle and @KC while the Titans have probable losses at home vs Pit and @SD in their extra games. That’s a two-game swing for the Colts, and that makes love this bet.

 DP’s Take: I like the reasoning a lot behind this. I agree completely on the logic and while I think the Titans will probably finish 2nd, I think the strength of schedule argument makes the 6:1 odds look reasonable. My only question is if you are so confident about Houston and Jax, why not take a bet where you predict the EXACT order of finish. You would decrease your odds slightly if Tenn were to tumble below Jax), but the payout would be MUCH higher.  

Bet $5.00 to win $6.75 Eagles to miss playoffs 
Bet $5.00 to win $8.00 Eagles to score under 415 pts in reg season

For many of the same reasons I like the Giants, I hate the Eagles this year. Or, at least, I don’t buy in nearly as much as the talking heads. I obviously like the Giants to win the NFC East, so I think the Eagles will need to get a WC to make the playoffs. I think the NFC North is loaded, and the Pack/Bears/Lions should claim at least one WC spot, if not both. If one of them isn’t that great, then the Eagles have to beat out the Cowboys/Bucs/Falcons/Saints/Panthers to take the other WC slot (obviously, I don’t think any of the non-49ers NFC West teams has a shot, nor do the Vikes/Skins). I can’t see the Eagles being consistent enough to do it. And one reason is that their offense will NOT put up 27 pts per game, like they did in 2010. Vick is slower, they’re less talented, and they’re more injury prone. They probably won’t even equal the 24.8 they put up last year. The 415 total yards in the second bet comes out to 25.94 pts per game, so I love the under bet.  

DP’s Take: There probably is value in betting against the Eagles as we noted before. I know the computer simulations LOVE the Eagles this year, but the computers can’t figure in the intangibles that the Juice noted. I am not in love with this bet, but I think it’s fairly sound.  

Bet $5.00 to win $20.00 Drew Brees to lead league in passing yds
This is actually a bet against the Saints. Because of coaching issues and offseason turmoil, and because they have a terrible pass defense (30th last year), I think they will play from behind most of the season. That means Brees will be racking up tons of pass attempts late in games. Three major threats to beat him out (Rodgers, Brady, and Eli Manning) should be sitting in week 17. The other two threats are Rivers and Stafford: Stafford is injury prone, and Rivers is depending on Antonio Gates returning to form, which I do not deem likely. Finally, two words: Jimmy Graham. I see another huge season from the big boy, and Brees will reap the benefits.  

DP’s Take: This bet piqued my interest quite a bit so I went to look up the odds. I agree that Drew Brees should be the odds on favorite even with Sean Peyton’s absence. If anything the Saints thin Defense will lead to lots of shot outs. Still Rodgers and Brady have two of the easiest schedules in the league (I don’t consider Eli a threat, before 2011 his previous best was 4021. I see Eli much more likely to regress to the mean). So the Doc placed his own counter bet: $5 on Brees (+400), $5 on Brady (+400), $5 on Rodgers (+500) and $5 on Stafford (+550). I might even hedge and put a little bit on Rivers just in case. In any event, I find it really hard to imagine any scenario where one of these 4 (or 5) don’t win the passing title. So the best basically has 4 possible outcomes: 1. Someone else wins the passing title- lost $20. 2. Brees or Brady win the passing title- win $5. 3. Rodgers wins the passing title- win $10. 4. Stafford wins the passing title- win $12.5. Basically is there a better than 1:4 chance one of these 4 doesn’t win the passing title? I really don’t think so.
  
Bet $5.00 to win $100.00 LaMichael James to win Offensive Rookie of the Year
Basically, this kid plays with a chip on his shoulder, is averaging 5 yards per carry in the preseason, and is one (highly probable) Frank Gore injury from seeing mucho playing time for a team that loves to run and is often playing with a lead. Also, I think I could rush for 1,200 yds in six games against the Seahawks, Rams, and Cards.  

DP’s Take: Sorry Juice, we are gonna have to disagree on this one. Its one thing to bet on a Frank Gore injury, but your real bet is that 5 rookie QBs and 1 rookie RB (Richardson) are all mediocre. Of course two of those rookies are Cleveland Browns, so I will just have to take your word that Weeden sucks and therefore teams will stack up against Richardson simultaneously killing the chances of both players. BUT, even at 20:1 I would bet against Luck, RG3, and Wilson all sucking. In fact I am SO CONFIDENT, that Luck or RG3 will win the ROY, I placed my own counter bet. $5 on Luck (+225) and $10 on RG3 (+400). So the three options are: 1. Neither guy wins- lose $15. 2. Luck wins- win $1.25. 3. RG3 wins- win $35. Basically I think RG3 wins this year. By all accounts he is totally professional, is pro-ready, has decent wide receivers, a better running game than Luck and a real LT. Even if the rest of his O-line is shaky, it still plays to his strength of getting outside the pocket. I can see a nice combination of runs setting up deep passes to Moss and Garcon. The Luck bet is essentially a hedge.  

Bet $5.00 to win $25.00 Tampa Bay to make playoffs
The Doc outlined a bunch of reasons to like TB this year. I agree with all of them. I think they have a shot at the division. Moreover, I don’t like anyone in the NFC West to steal a WC, and I think the NFC East is weak. So, unless the Bears and Lions both score a WC slot (assuming GB wins the North), there should be one slot up for grabs. I think the Bucs are a good bet to take it at 5:1 odds.  

DP’s Take: I feel bad about this one. The Juice already knew that I took TB +1400 to win the Division and instead made this pick for the sake of entertainment. I have to disagree with him on the wild-card front. I’m not as down on the NFC East and I think the NFC Central has a pretty easy schedule. I think winning the division is the Bucs best shot and I don’t think a shot at a WC justifies the drop from +1400 to +500. Sorry Man, if the Bucs win the Division, I’ll buy you a beer.