Week 8 Picks

TJ: Good season picking games for the Doc and I so far: I'm 56-47, the Doc is 55-48.  We've each won our office pool and are in the black on the year so far.  On the flip side, Cleveland is terrible, and the Colts are worse.  If I didn't love football so much, I'd really hate it.  On to the picks!

Miami (+9.5) vs NY GIANTS (-9.5) 

DP: I can't find a single reason to pick Miami. They are 1-5 ATS, they have concerns at QB, they are on the verge of firing their coach and tanking the season. The Giants are 4-1 since starting the season with a loss to the Redskins. Eli Manning is protecting the ball (101 rating 11 TD to 4 INT) and the Giants are getting a bunch of players back. Whenever the things look this one sided, the Doc has learned to curb his baser instincts and take the Dog. Pick: Dolphins

TJ:  Matt Moore on the road?  Tuck and Jacobs back in the lineup for the Giants?  The Giants haven’t scored less than 27 in their last five games and Miami hasn’t scored more than 16?  Sounds like a recipe for a blowout.  I’ll give up the points.  Pick: Giants.

CAROLINA (-3.5) vs Minnesota

DP: I'm not sure why everyone is sleeping on this Panthers team, they are undoubtedly the best 2-5 team in the league. They have a potent offense (5th pass, 8th rush) and a decent pass defense (12th). 4 of their losses came to Green Bay, Chicago, Atlanta, and New Orleans, which are good teams. They handled Washington last week at home and Washington is probably better than Minny. As for Minny, I know they put up a fight against the Pack last week, but now they have a rookie QB on the road in his second start. Pick: Panthers.

TJ: Minnesota ranks 29^th against the pass, and Cam Newton has been racking up yards.  On the flip side, Peterson has the Vikings with the 3^rd best rushing offense in the league (pretty amazing for a 1-6 team that perpetually plays from behind), and the Panthers are 29^th against the rush.  These teams dovetail in a way that makes me think there could be some serious scoring.  Unless they have 5 turnovers each, another distinct possibility for such undisciplined, crappy ball clubs.  I think I have to take Carolina at home, and hope the Vikings pass rush and secondary continues to underperform, and that Ponder can find a way to blow the game, even with limited attempts.  Pick: Panthers.

New Orleans (-12.5) vs ST. LOUIS

DP: The Doc hates picking these games with big spreads. Who wants to give 12.5 on the road? But St. Louis is so terrible. The Rams haven't scored more than 16 points in a game. The Saints haven't scored fewer and 20. This will probably be one of those crap last minute covers by St. Louis, but that’s better than watching the Saints blow out the Rams by 30 in the first half and wondering what the fuck I was thinking. Pick: Saints.

TJ: Jesus, Doc, you really broke out the self-loathing and pessimism on that analysis.  How ‘bout I turn it around and say: ain’t it fun to root for a team to just keep epically sucking?  The Rams are averaging 9 points per game.  Over 6 fucking games!  That’s historically shitty.  The Saints are averaging 34 points per game, and have scored in bunches against much better defenses than St. Louis (they put 34 on Green Bay, 30 on Chicago, and 40 on a Houston team that gave up only 15 per game to the other 6 teams it played).  I don’t know if this game will approach the 62-7 rectum-wrecking the Saints gave the Colts last week, but I think I’ll give up the 12.5 anyway.  Pick: Saints.

Arizona (+12.5) vs BALTIMORE

DP: Best not to over react too much to one terrible loss. I still like Baltimore and I really like them to rebound at home. Pick: Ravens

TJ: OK, Arizona could only manage 10 points against Seattle and Minnesota on the road, so I know they aren’t going to light-up the scoreboard in Baltimore.  So, the question becomes: can Baltimore’s offense get its collective head out of its collective ass and score 28 points against Arizona?  They’ve done it in all four of their wins this year, and those came against decent defenses including Pittsburgh and the Jets.  After the travesty in Jacksonville last week, Harbaugh admitted that Ray Rice needs more touches, and Arizona’s average run defense (ranked 14^th) shouldn’t be able to stop him if he gets rolling.  I’m guessing an early pick-six or fumble recovery deep in Arizona territory will give Baltimore’s offense the cushion it needs to focus on the running game and take care of business handily.  Pick: Ravens.

Indianapolis (+9.5) vs TENNESSEE

DP: Once again, best not to over react to one week. The Saints were a bad match-up and I knew that that asshole Sean Payton would run up the score. Indy had been playing better under Curtis Painter and games against division foes are always closer than you think. Tenn slops to an ugly win 17-12. Pick: Indy

TJ:  What’s the sure cure for Chris Johnson’s crappy start to the season?  Playing the Colts!  His 2.9 yards per carry will get bumped up by a 32 attempts for 160 yards and 2 TD’s line.  Tennessee has the worst rush defense in the league, but since Indy has no running game to exploit that weakness, and I see them falling behind early anyway, this should be a rout for the Titans, and get them back in the race for the division.  Pick: Titans.

HOUSTON (-9.5) vs Jacksonville

DP: Jax is averaging 12 points a game. That means they would need to hold Houston to 21 points or under on the road. Not Likely. Pick: Texans.

TJ:  I know I love to hate on Jacksonville, but their defense showed a real spark against the (admittedly inept) Ravens offense last week.  Unfortunately, their offense looked about as bad as Baltimore’s, and there’s no reason to expect it to improve much against Houston.  As the Doc said, it comes down to whether Houston can score.  Here, I disagree with the Doc, and I’m going to take the points.  Pick: Jags.

BUFFALO (-5.5) vs Washington

DP: The Bills, who live off of interceptions, say hello John Beck and Jabar Gaffney. I like the high scoring Bills to get a lead and then feed of a desperate Redskins team that is trying to catch up. Pick: Bills.

TJ:  No homefield for the Bills in Toronto, and that defense the Doc said thrives on turnovers is also ranked 30^th against both the run and the pass.  Aside from week 1 against the Chief, the Bills’ victories have been by an average of only 4 points.  The Redskins have a surprisingly decent defense, only giving up more than 20 points once this year, although they haven’t played a lot of great offenses.  I’m a little torn here, but I just don’t trust the Bills to blow the Redskins out, so even though I think the Bills will win outright, I’m going to take the points.  Pick: Redskins.

Detroit (-0.5) vs DENVER

DP: I would love to get the Lions at -0.5. Most of the books are -3.5. I can't wait for Suh vs. Tebow. Whose side is Karma going to be on? Pick: Lions

TJ: Tebow is going to get Tebowned by the Lions’ D.  This one could get out of hand.  Pick: Lions.

SAN FRANCISCO (-9.5) vs Cleveland

DP: The Browns fans will have to 'savor' their 6-3 victory against the Seaskanks last week because I don't like their chances going West. Pick: Browns.

TJ:  I really want to like Cleveland here, especially with the points, but that 49ers defense is stout, and I think we’ve seen the best we’re going to see from the Browns this year.  Unless Alex Smith finds a way to hand Cleveland the game (and I don’t think Harbaugh will let him), this should be a blowout for San Fran.  Pick: Niners.

PITTSBURGH (+2.5) vs New England

DP: This game opened at +4 so that line move means the early money is on Pitt. I really like Pitt at +4 at home, but I can live with +2.5. The Steelers have enough of a passing game to counter punch New England's passing attack. Pick: Steelers

TJ: The Steelers D has been looking like it’s back to its old form.  Take away the week 1 clusterfuck against the Ravens, and Pittsburgh has given up under 15 points per game and never more than 20.  But look a little deeper: the opponents in those six games were Seattle, Indy, Houston, Tennessee, Jacksonville, and Arizona.  Those teams only score 18 points per game on average, and 5 out of 6 of them are in the bottom third of the league in points scored (Houston is the exception at 7^th in the league).  I think Pittsburgh’s defense isn’t all that good, and they’ve lost to the only two quality teams they’ve played this year, Houston and Baltimore.  New England has the best passing offense in the league, and I think they’ll be taking this game very seriously.  I like them to win big.  Pick: Pats.

SEATTLE (+2.5) vs Cincinnati

DP: For some reason, I love Seattle in this game. They are much tougher at home (this is only their 3rd home game so far) and the Bengals just don't seem like a team with the mental toughness to cover on the road in a tough stadium. 

TJ:  Yeah, I’m still not convinced by Cincy, and I like Seattle at home.  Cincy is another team whose record is deceptive, as 3 of their 4 wins come against Cleveland, Jacksonville, and Indy, and their defensive rankings have been inflated by inept opposing offenses.  Pick: Skanks.

Dallas (+3.5) vs PHILADELPHIA

DP: Another game I love. I just have a weird feeling that Dallas is turning things around. They are playing better than Philly, Division games are tough and tight, and they are getting 3.5 points. Pick: 'Boys

TJ: This is a make-or-break game for Philly, but not for Dallas.  Normally, I would think that home team in a must-win game would have an advantage, but I’m not sure Philly will pull together under that pressure.  There have been some red flags regarding their team chimstry of late, and The Cowboys’ defense may be spoiling for a chance to get at Vick.  I’m with the Doc on this one.  Pick: ‘Boys.

San Diego (-3.5) vs KANSAS CITY

DP: I love to pick teams with a tough loss last week (Chargers) vs. a team with a nice win the week before (KC). People tend to over react on both sides so I think you get a little value here with a San Diego team that can pass (7th) and defend the pass (3rd) against a KC team that can't pass (30th) is only so-so defending the pass (17th). Pick: Chargers

TJ: Hey, KC, you’re excited about your 3-game winning streak, huh?  Well, let me let you in on a little secret: Minny, Indy, and Oakland aren’t exactly a murderers’ row.  KC got their asses kicked by Buffalo and Detroit, and the Chargers have already beaten them once this year.  The Chargers may only be 4-2, but their only losses are to the Pats and Jets on the road.  They are a much better team than KC, and this should be an ass-kicking.  Pick: Chargers.

Week 7 Picks

The Doc made a strong come back last week finishing 10-3. He is now back above 0.500 and only one behind The Juice for the season.

The Doc doesn't like his chances this week. He has poured over the games and can only find one Dog that doesn't terrify him. The Doc sees a future of watching 12 favorites all try to cover. Yeah, its not gonna be pretty.

DETROIT (-3.5) vs Atlanta

DP: I feel like Atlanta is a bit overvalued coming off a win and going on the road. The Lions certainly have their own issues, but I still feel like they are a quality team and are a good match-up for a finesse Atlanta team. Pick: Lions

TJ: I disagree.  I think Atlanta got undervalued early because of a slow start, but they’re actually still a decent team and have a shot at the playoffs.  In fact, this game may have a lot to do with the Wild Card picture late in the season, as the Lions have little chance of beating the Packers for the division, and Atlanta is in a dogfight for the NFC South.  I like the points.  Pick: Falcons.

Chicago (-1.5) vs TAMPA BAY

DP: Vegas seems to be begging you to take Tampa, especially after a nice win against the Saints last week. The Doc doesn't see it though. Tampa's poor D-line play will prevent them from really taking advantage of the Bears shaky O-line. Pick: Bears

TJ:  Forte has proven himself a beast, and I like the Bears defense to disrupt any rhythm the Bucs can put together on O.  I think that shellacking by the 49ers was no fluke, and this Bucs team is vulnerable if they get behind early, since they have no big play potential and Freeman remains a game manager.  Pick: Bears.

CAROLINA (-2.5) vs Washington

DP: One of the few games I felt good enough to bet on this week. Carolina is rising fast and Washington seems to have some discord with the change at QB. Pick: Panthers

TJ: I think Shanahan has lost it.  I know Grossman isn’t the long-term solution, but they were winning with him (at least a few games), and now they’ve destroyed any confidence he had, and any confidence his teammates had in him.  All for John Beck?  What a clusterfuck.  I also like Newton to get back on track and pass for about 800 yards in a sloppy, high-scoring mess of a game.  Pick: Panthers.

Denver (+2.5) vs MIAMI

DP: The only Dog I took this week. I actually hope Miami wins, but I see Tim Tebow coming back to Florida and stealing a game. Pick: Broncos.

TJ: Miami sucks.  Lame duck coach, lame duck QB, no defense, just awful.  Denver ain’t great, especially since they traded away their best offensive player last week in Lloyd, but I agree that Tebow gives them a spark.  Unfortunately, the theory that he’ll have fans at the game is a mistake, as no one in Miami likes UF, they’re all fans of UM, and they hate Tebow.  Picking him to be the difference on the road is a tough call.  I’m only taking Denver because of the spread.  This will be a low-scoring crap-fest, and I like the points.  Pick: Broncos.

San Diego (-1.5) vs NY JETS

DP: I don't like either team frankly, but I think San Diego can score enough to win on the road. Pick: Chargers

TJ: I’m getting points at home with the Jets against a West-coast team?  Yes, please!  And the Jets don’t stink.  They’re in a slump, but they’re still above average.  I like the Chargers, especially since Matthews has come on strong at RB, but not enough to take them giving up points across country against a quality (and desperate) team.  Pick: Jets.

CLEVELAND (-2.5) vs Seattle

DP: I can't take the 'Hawks on the road. I just hope Colt McCoy has enough of a passing game to cover. Pick: Browns

TJ: The Doc is right.  Looks like Charlie Whitehurst is starting for the Seaskanks, and if you want me to back that dude on the road against an angry, underachieving Cleveland team, you must be crazy.  Pick: Browns.

TENNESSEE (-3.5) vs Houston

DP: The Doc is feeling pretty good about his Tenn +600 bet to win the AFC South. Without Mario Williams, I think the Tenn line gives Matt Hasselbeck enough time to throw down field. The Titans take a big step toward winning the Division. Pick: Titans

TJ:  I think there are two possible scenarios: Houston scores first and can use their running game to control the clock and wear out the Tennessee defense; Tennessee scores first, pressures Houston into passing, and wins in a rout.  They seem pretty equally likely to me, so I’ll just take the points.  Pick: Texans.

Pittsburgh (-3.5) vs ARIZONA

DP: Another game between inconsistent teams. Is it possible that Arizona cashes in on 5 Pitt turnovers to win the game? Possible, yes. But not likely. Pick: Pitt.

TJ:  Agreed, the only way for the Cardinals to win is for Pittsburgh to give them the game with turnovers and blown coverages.  Won’t happen this week.  Pick: Steelers.

OAKLAND (-3.5) vs Kansas City

DP: This is another head scratcher of a line. The home Raiders only giving 3.5 points (on some of the online books, the line is up to 6). I guess people are worried that Carson Palmer is rusty? I'll happily give the points and take the Raiders.

TJ: Yeah, there’s just nothing to like about that Chiefs team.  The Raiders have a great running game and a solid defense.  The QB situation won’t come into play, because the Chiefs can’t score enough to force the Raiders to pass.  Easy pick: Raiders.

DALLAS (-12.5) vs St. Louis

DP: Dallas is my choice for NFC sleeper right now (a team 0.500 or worse that could go to the Superbowl). They have had a surprisingly tough early schedule (Jets, 49ers, Redskins, Lions, Pats) and hung close in every game (no game decided by more than 4 points). They still have the Rams, Seahawks, Dolphins, and Cardinals on the schedule plus the inconsistent NFC East Eagles (2X), GIants (2X), and @Redskins. Their 'toughest' games are Buff and @Tampa. I think they finish 8-3 and win the Division at 10-6.

TJ:  I like the Doc’s analysis of the NFC East and the ‘Boy’s chances.  What about giving up 12.5 though?  I mean, man, that’s a big spread for a 2-3 team to cover.  The Rams picked up Brandon Lloyd to help the passing game, and I think they were better than their 0-5 record to begin with.  So the question is, is this a 35-28 Cowboys win, or a 31-10 Cowboys win?  Yeah, it’s hard to see St. Louis scoring 28.  Pick: Boys.

Green Bay (-8.5) vs MINNESOTA

DP: Ponder takes over an anemic Minnesota offense and tries to keep up with Aaron Rodgers and the Packers on turf. Do I think they can stay within 8.5? No I do not. Pick: Pack.

TJ: I desperately want to be contrarian and pick the Vikes, but they just seem like a trainwreck.  If they could get out in front and run Peterson all day, they could have a shot, but Rodgers won’t allow it, and will put up 40 points easy.  The Vikings just can’t keep up, even at home.  Pick: Packers.

NEW ORLEANS (- 13.5) vs Indianapolis

DP: This is how sad things have become. The Doc put money on both the Saints -14 and the Saints over 31.5 points. Is it too early to flex a better game into this slot? How bad are things gonna get for the Colts? Well the 'easy' part of their schedule is over. They still have @New Orleans, Atlanta, @New England, @Baltimore, plus Tenn (2x) and Houston. The most likely games left that are 'winnable' are Jax (2X) and Carolina and the Panthers have looked pretty good lately. Hard to see more 2 wins on the schedule. Pick: New Orleans

TJ: The Colts have thrown in the towel, and my picking them to win the South seems like an alcohol-induced hallucination from 10 years ago.  Wow, do the Colts stink without Manning.  It’s just further proof that he’s the most important player in the league.  Both because he’s very good, but equally because the Colts built their entire offense around him and had no backup plan.  I don’t even like the Saints that much, but it’s just impossible to pick the Colts to keep it close.  Pick: Saints.

Baltimore (-7.5) vs JACKSONVILLE

DP: Baltimore is very quietly flying under the radar right now but I think they are the best team in the AFC. Solid Defense (7th against the pass and 3rd against the run) plus a balanced offense (13th passing and 12th running) is a good sign. The schedule still includes the Cards, Colts, @Seahawks, Bengals (2X) and Browns (2X). Their 'tough' games are @Pitt, @San Diego, and San Fran. That looks like no worse than 12-4 and a good shot at 14-2 and homefield. Can Jax take their rookie QB and 32nd ranked passing game and keep up with Baltimore? Seems unlikely. Pick: Ravens

TJ: The key here isn’t that the Ravens are that great (I think they’re good, but not as good as the Doc is arguing), it’s the QB situation in Jacksonville.  The Ravens will be able to stack against the run and dare Gabbert to pass the ball, then ballhawk on his mistakes and create at least one pick-six.  Ed Reed probably had a chubby all week just thinking about Gabbert floating ill-advised ducks and telegraphing slant routes.  Pick: Ravens.

Week 6 Picks!

TJ: After a dismal performance last week, I’m really digging deep to try to keep my head above water (and my record over .500!). I’m taking a ton of favorites this week and laying a lot of points, mostly because there are some unutterably shitty defenses out there. Here we go!

Buffalo (+3.5) vs NY GIANTS

TJ: I know they blew it against the Bengals, and normally I’m the skeptic who won’t back a team who was bad last year, but the Bills seem like they’re a decent squad to me. I’m not sure they can earn a Wild Card (the Pats will take the division), but I think they’re a good running team with a QB who won’t screw them. It’s their D that scares me, though (26th against the pass, 29th against the run, giving up 24 points/game). The Giants rushing attack is miserable this year, though, and their defense isn’t much better than the Bills’ D, so it seems like a toss-up. I’ll take the points. Pick: Bills.

DP: People are still sleeping on this Bills team. I think they go on the road and handle a Giants squad that is too inconsistent. Pick: Bills

WASHINGTON (-0.5) vs Philadelphia

TJ: Last week I took the Eagles because I thought they had to better than they play indicated, even though the Doc correctly advised against it. I don’t believe in this rejuvenated Redskins team, but I can’t keep backing the Eagles. I’m gonna take the ‘Skins at home, but if the Eagles D finally pulls it together and intercepts Grossman 6 times, I’m gonna be pissed. Pick: ‘Skins.

DP: I like Philly here as a contrarian pick. I think their speed on offense will overwhelm the Redskins Defense and they will easily win. Pick: Eagles.

San Francisco (+4.5) vs DETROIT

TJ: If it weren’t for an OT loss to the Cowboys, the 49ers could be right alongside the Lions as huge surprise 5-0 teams. The main difference right now is at QB, where I think Stafford hasn’t proven himself yet, but Alex Smith has proven that he stinks and his team is winning simply because he’s avaoided screwing them so far (they’re still 29th in the league in passing). I think Suh will eat Smith alive, and the healed-up Fairley will get his first sack of the season as well. Pick: Lions.

DP: The Lions are opportunistic which is another way of saying they need other teams to screw up. I think San Fran is disciplined enough to stick with the Lions and keep it to a 3-point game. Pick: 49ers.

GREEN BAY (-14.5) vs St. Louis

TJ: 14.5 is a TON of points, but the Pack is averaging 35 points per game while St. Louis is averaging only 12. Furthermore, the Rams D will be the worst Green Bay has faced all year as far as points allowed (28.2/game), while St. Louis scored only 13 and 16 against the Giants and Eagles, defenses ranked far below Green Bay’s in points allowed. With Green Bay at home, all signs point to a blowout. I’ll lay the points. Pick: Pack.

DP: The Doc got a few things right in his pre-season preview, but his St. Louis love was not one of them. The Rams brutal schedule to start the season ends with a blow-out in Green Bay. The Doc is so certain of this, he took the ‘over’ on points which was only 48. Green Bay may score 48 by themselves!!!!! Pick: Pack

ATLANTA (-4.5) vs Carolina

TJ: If it weren’t for that 3-point loss to Tampa, folks wouldn’t be nearly as down on the Falcons. Their offense struggled against Green Bay last week, and they just can’t seem to get Turner loose, but I think this is the week for the offense to get healthy. Julio Jones will bust his cherry and get his first NFL TD, and Turner will break 120 yards against the Panthers terrible run D (ranked 27th). I wouldn’t be shocked if Newton throws a couple picks as well. Pick: Falcons.

DP: Carolina has been a nice story, but it feels like they are due for a stinker. Atlanta is desperate and at home and feels like the right time for Cam Newton to act like a rookie. Pick: Dirty Birds

Indianapolis (+7.5) vs CINCINNATI

TJ: I really want to back the Colts here with 7.5 points, but the Bengals D has been pretty decent so far, and the Colts just don’t seem to have anything going for them at all. They’re averaging 82 yards rushing per game TOTAL. That’s terrible. Since it’s in Cincy, I guess I have to lay the points here. Pick: Bengals.

DP: What were the preseason odds for the Colts to go 0-16? I bet it was like 1:30000. I should lay $5 on it every year just in case. This is what my season has become, rooting for the Dolphins to win every week. Pick: Bengals.

PITTSBURGH (-12.5) vs Jacksonville

TJ: You know, I think Pittsburgh has a lot of issues, but they’re 3-2 with the number one passing defense in the league, and you wnt me to take Blaine Gabbert on the road here? No way. Pittsburgh will get ahead early, then pick off Gabbert repeatedly as he makes bad throws trying desperately to play catch-up. Pick: Steelers.

DP: For some reason I am always off on the Steelers so feel free to go against me. My intention is go for a big Steelers win, so I am going contrary and picking a plucky Jax team to hang tight. Or is that purposeful over compensation? Pick: Jax

Houston (+7.5) vs BALTIMORE

TJ: Houston has a ton of injuries, and I didn’t like them all that much to begin with. They’re 3-2, but their only quality win was a squeaker, 17-10 over Pittsburgh at home. I don’t see them going into Baltimore and keeping it close, especially without Mario Williams to pressure Flacco. Baltimore is also coming off a bye, and their defense is rounding into shape (giving up only 11 points per game!). Pick: Ravens.

DP: Everything points to Baltimore: they are coming off a Bye, Houston lost to the Raiders at home last week, the Texans are banged up. If the Doc has learned one thing about betting on the NFL its to always go the opposite way when all signs point in one direction. Pick: Texans

OAKLAND (-5.5) vs Cleveland

TJ: The Raiders are quietly 3-2 with losses to good teams (Bills and Pats) and quality wins against the Jets and Texans. Their D is suspect, but their running game is outstanding, unfortunately matching up very well against my Brownie’s porous run D and anemic offense. Giving up only 5.5 at home seems like a good bet to me. Pick: Raiders.

DP: Not a good match-up for the Browns who are not great against the run and have to go on the road against a Raider team that is playing well right now. I like the Raiders to wear down the Browns and cover late. Pick: Raiders.

New Orleans (-4.5) vs TAMPA BAY

TJ: The Bucs are 3-2, but they don’t seem to have the same mojo they had last year. They aren’t sneaking up on anybody, and that ass-pounding they took from the 49ers has to mess with their psyche a bit. The Saints, on the other hand, have only one loss (to Green Bay) and are scoring 33 points per game with the #2 passing attack in the league. I think the Bucs are in trouble, and the Saints are poised to run away with the NFC South. Pick: Saints.

DP: Vegas is begging you to take the Saints. That should tell you something. Pick: Bucs.

NEW ENGLAND (-7.5) vs Dallas

TJ: Rob Ryan has vastly improved the ‘Boys’ D, but they haven’t seen anything like the Pats yet. It’s great that the Cowboys had an extra week to prepare, but New England’s offense is explosive, and I don’t trust Romo trying to keep up. He’ll make a few mistakes trying to match the Pats’ scoring, and Belichick will make them pay. Interesting stat: the Cowboys are 2-2, but the margins of victory or loss in those four games have been 3, 3, 2, and 4 points. Time for a blowout. Pick: Pats.

DP: One of the best parts of living in Dallas is watching the locals freak out when the ‘Boys struggle. I am anticipating a good week. Pick: Pats.

CHICAGO (-2.5) vs Minnesota

TJ: The Vikings can’t pass. I mean, at all. Usually, a 1-4 team will have decent passing yardage since they must play from behind a lot, but the Vikings are 31st in the league demonstrating that they either don’t trust McNabb to throw much, or that he’s got no one to target even when he has the chance (likely, considering he’s had a couple games with completion percentages under 50%). Chicago’s D has been surprisingly poor, but this week should help. I like the Bears to win in a low-scoring mess at home. Pick: Bears.

DP: The Vikings love to torture their fans, so what would be the most torture. Start 0-4 and then win 2 to give their fans some hope before bottoming out against Green Bay and @Carolina. I smell 2-6 and Christian Ponder after the Bye. Pick: Vikings.

NY JETS (-7.5) vs Miami

TJ: Miami is a dismal team. I know the Jets haven’t lived up to expectations, but they’ve had a tough couple weeks against Baltimore and New England. They should run roughshod over the Dolphins at home. Henne’s out for the season, so they ‘Phins passing game will be nonexistent, and Sexy Rexy should be able to stack the line and shut down the run. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a 17-3 final. Pick: Jets.

DP: The Doc is not sure what he will be doing on Monday night, but there is one thing he knows he WON’T be doing and that’s watching this snoozer. Pick: Jets.

Week 5 Picks

The Good Doc has been in a funk, but made it back to .500 this week. Hopefully it’s a sign of better things to come. Now on to the Picks!

NY GIANTS (-9.5) vs Seattle

DP: Seattle is a Jekyll and Hyde team. They do alright at home against finesse teams, but can't handle physical teams on the road. New York is both physical and far away from home. I think it might be a long plane ride back to The Great Northwest.

TJ:  The Doc’s analysis is good, but the Giants are so volatile, it’s hard to pick them to win in a blowout.  Fortunately, Seattle’s incredibly bad QB and ridiculous road record for the last few years outweighs the Giants’ volatility.  Pick: Giants.

MINNESOTA (-2.5) vs Arizona

DP: I think people will over value Arizona last week after a close lose at home and undervalue a Minnesota team that lost to KC on the road. I think Minny is playing a little better right now, but had the bad luck of playing three pretty good teams (San Diego, Tampa, Detroit).  I like them to cover at home.

TJ:  Arizona is my pick to win the NFC West, and I hate the Vikings, so I’m gonna go against the Doc’s perfectly reasonable argument and pick the Cards.  If they let me down again, I’ll be off their bandwagon for sure (I think).  Pick: Cards.

CAROLINA (+6.5) vs New Orleans

DP: It’s hard to cover in Divisional games on the road. Plus Carolina is frisky.

TJ:  Disagree.  Carolina is overvalued for the numbers Newton has put up.  Teams will learn to key on him and use some more confusing defenses that he hasn’t seen yet, and there’s no way Carolina prevents New Orleans from putting up big points.  This could be a blowout.  Pick: Saints.

BUFFALO (+2.5) vs Philadelphia

DP: Everyone picking Philly uses the same reasoning: they can't go 1-4. But that's not logic, its self-delusion. Buffalo actually stacks up well against the Birds.

TJ:  They can’t go 1-4!  Pick: Philly.

INDIANAPOLIS (-2.5) vs Kansas City

DP: Indy plays a little better under Curtis Painter, who I think will give them just enough to cover against KC.

TJ:  Painter sucks and the Colts are in a freefall.  The only cure for what ails them would be playing at home against the worst team in the league.  BINGO!  Pick: Colts.

Cincinnati (+2.5) vs JACKSONVILLE

DP: This is one game that I am pretty sure I won't be stopping on very often for DirecTV. I think Cincy will grind out a close one.

TJ:  Cincy is not as terrible as I thought, and their defense is actually good (3^rd against pass, 7^th against run).  True, they’ve compiled those stats against mostly bad teams, but Jacksonville is nothing if not a mostly bad team!  I say they get after Blaine Gabbert and blow this one wide open.  Pick: Cincy.

Tennessee (+6.5) vs PITTSBURGH

DP: I wish I could find +6.5 at a gambling site! Most places have +3 and even at that I still like the Titans in what should be a physical game.

TJ: This line should be much lower, and as the Doc says, at most places it is.  Pitt has issues stopping the run (22^nd in the league), and Chris Johnson is starting to roll (broke 100yds last week).  Pick: Titans.

Oakland (+5.5) vs HOUSTON

DP: Sunday evening I will probably be holding my head and wondering "Why did I take the Raiders on the road?" For now though I don't think that has the kind of passing game without Andre Johnson to exploit the Raider's secondary. I think this one could be close as well.

TJ:  Adrian Foster had 155 yards last week against Pittsburgh.  Oakland will fare no better.  I think Houston will roll this week, then face their real challenge next week against the Ravens.  Pick: Houston.

SAN FRANCISCO (-2.5) vs Tampa Bay

DP: Tampa is 3-1, but they have been pretty inconsistent with weak performances against Minny and Indy. I like the discipline that Jim Harbaugh has brought to the 49ers grinding out road wins against Cincy and Philly. I like the 49ers to handle their business at home.

TJ: Tampa will assert themselves here.  I like them to win handily, so I love getting the points.  I don’t believe in the 49ers yet at all.  They can’t pass or defend the pass, and it’s a passing league. Pick: Bucs.

NY Jets (+9.5) vs NEW ENGLAND

DP: This line seems way too big for me. The Jets are actually pretty good against the pass and put most of their focus on beating the Pats. I think it will be a competitive game as I like Mark Sanchez to step up against a weak Pat's D.

TJ:  The Pats D is weak, it’s true, but Sanchez is in a tailspin.  The Jets’ defensive schemes just don’t seem to be at the same level as last year, and Brady is playing terrific ball.  Both defenses are playing poorly, so I’ll take the better offense.  Pick: Pats.

San Diego (-4.5) vs DENVER

DP: Everything about this game points to San Diego- nice win last weekend, Denver was blown out, spread is pretty small. I assume the public money is well over 80% on San Diego. If ever there was a time to go contrarian, it would be now, but I just can't bring myself to do it. Denver looks lost and San Diego is playing fairly consistently right now.

TJ:  I love San Diego here.  They’re by far the best team in that division.  Orton has lost the team and the fans, and it’s only a matter of time before he pisses away any momentum he has.  Remember, this dude has six picks in four games.  San Diego will eat him alive, and Rivers (who also has six picks in four games) will put up huge numbers that will get his season back on track.  Pick: Chargers.

ATLANTA (+5.5) vs Green Bay

DP: I think most people will remember the game from last year and assume it will be another blow out, but I think they are pretty evenly matched. Atlanta should be able to throw on Green Bay and I am sure they will be up for the game. I will take a good team getting 5.5 at home even if it is the Packers.

TJ: Atlanta is a different team this year.  I don’t think they can pressure Rodgers at all, and when he has time, he puts up points.  I like Green Bay to win big, even if it’s 58-45.  Pick: Packers.

Chicago (+5.5) vs DETROIT

DP: Another game that looks obvious on paper. 4-0 Detroit at home against stumbling Chicago. The contrarian view is that they played 'down to their competition' against Dallas and Minnesota, Divisional opponents are always tougher to cover against the spread, and that the Bears may be 2-2 but they have played a pretty rough schedule (Atlanta, New Orleans, Green Bay, and a frisky Carolina team). I like the Bears to put a pretty good fight against the Lions.

TJ:  Bears are simply not good.  Suh will eat Cutler’s heart on a fucking stick.  I like the Lions to win big and show that this division is clearly divided between the good (Detroit/Green Bay), the bad (Chicago), and the ugly (Minnesota).  Pick: Lions.

Week 5: The Bets

The Doc had a crazy weekend. He started hot winning his first three bets (Thank you Detroit Lions and THANK YOU Tony Romo). So the Doc had high hopes heading into the late games on a winning streak with three more bets in place. Unfortunately, not one of the three Dogs covered (Cards were oh so close) and the weekend ended a push. For the season the Doc is down $0.50. So on to this week's games!

Spread $5.25 $5.00 Football NFL - Tennessee Titans +3 -105 for Game
Spread $5.50 $5.00 Football NFL - Indianapolis Colts -2 -110 for Game
Spread $5.50 $5.00 Football NFL - Buffalo Bills +2½ -110 for Game
Spread $5.50 $5.00 Football NFL - San Diego Chargers -4½ -110 for Game
Parlay $5.00 $13.00 Football NFL - New York Jets +9 for Game and Under 49½

Teaser $5.00 $7.50 Football NFL - Buffalo Bills +10 -125 for Game
Football NFL - Carolina Panthers +15 -110 for Game
Football NFL - New York Giants -3 -110 for Game

The Doc continues to love the Titans who are getting three on the Road against a Pitt team that suddenly looks mortal. The Titans are a team built to hang with the Steelers- good lines, running game, few turnovers from the QB.

The Colts have started 0-4 and the season is basically on the line the next two weeks against the Chiefs and Bengals. These two games might be the last 2 games the Colts will be favored this season without Manning. I think the offense is looking better with Curtis Painter and KC is probably in for a let down after winning at home last week.

The Bills are getting 2.5 at home against the Eagles which means a lot of people are playing the 'Eagles must be desperate' card. But I think the Bills stack up pretty well with the Birds. The can defend the pass and they can run a little bit. I like the Bills to take this one at home.

San Diego is giving only 4.5 against the Broncos. I try not to over react from week to week, but I think this might be giving the Broncos a little too much credit. They look like they are a bit of a mess.

Jets are getting a mind boggling 9 against the Pats. I can't figure this one out. The Jets struggle against a couple of physical teams that can run the ball (Oakland and Balt). The Pats are neither of those. The Jets are pretty good against the pass (#2) and hate the Pats. I look for a close, lower scoring game here so I took the points and parlayed with the under.

The last bet was mostly just for fun. I teased down 3 home teams which I think have favorable match-ups. I already said that I like the Bills and I think Carolina at home can hang with the Saints. Seattle on the road against a physical Giants squad seems like a bad match-up. I think the Giants can easily cover the -3 point.

Good Luck!

Week 4 Picks

TJ: Rough start to the season for the Doc.  He’s 20-28, and I’m 26-22 over the first 3 weeks.  We differ on seven games this week, so the Doc could make up a lot of ground here.  Or I could bury him!  Let’s get to the picks:

Detroit (+1.5) vs DALLAS

DP: Detroit is the kind of physical team that gives Dallas trouble. The 'Boys are banged up and playing on a short week. I don't think they have all of their issues worked out yet on the offensive line and now they have to line up opposite of N. Suh. Pick: Loins

TJ: I’ve held off as long as I could, but I guess I’m on the Lions’s bandwagon now.  They should get to Romo easily and disrupt the Cowboy’s passing, and the ‘Boys running game is one of the worst in the league (I think they’ll really miss Marion Barber).  Pick: Lions

PHILADELPHIA (-6.5) vs San Francisco

DP: San Fran beat Cincy in an ugly game last week and stayed over in Philly instead of flying home. This never works out. Philly is light up front on D and their O-line can be pushed around by physical teams. I don't think San Fran can exploit either weakness. Pick: Eagles.

TJ: The Doc is exactly right, San Fran is a poor team to begin with, and there’s no way they can go into Philly and beat a much more talented team that ought to be super-motivated to get back on track.  Philly’s offense will get healthy in this game, and the D will light up Alex Smith.  Pick: Philly

Carolina (+6.5) vs CHICAGO

DP: The Bears are so erratic that they are hard to handicap. I doubt that I will bet on them all year. Carolina has been frisky, so I'll take the points and hope for a close game. Pick: Panthers

TJ: The Panthers, and Newton in particular, are due for a real stinker.  I don’t like the Bears at all this year, but I think they study a little film and get a bead on Cam Newton and that terrible Panthers D and rip them a new ass at home.  Pick: Bears.

ST. LOUIS vs Washington (-0.5)

DP: I'll probably regret this, but I'll give the Rams one more chance to validate my faith in them. Pick: Rams

TJ: I don’t like either of these teams at all, so I’ll take the home dog.  Pick: Rams.

CINCINNATI (+3.5) vs Buffalo

DP: Buffalo is a great story, but I can definitely see a stumble here. Big home wins the last two weeks vs. the Raiders and Pats and looking ahead to the Eagles next week. Cincy has a deceptively good defense and I think they can slow the Bills down into a slop fest. In fact sitting here writing this makes me want to bet the under. Pick: Bungles.

TJ: The Bengals’ one win came against my Browns in a week 1 game they should have lost.  They’re a bad team, and Buffalo will come in and put a beat down on a defense that’s been lucky up to this point.  Fire-crotch Dalton is dead meat.  Pick: Bills.

Tennessee (+0.5) vs CLEVELAND

DP: I like the Titans to take care of business on the road. Pick: Tenn

TJ:  I don’t believe in this Titans team at all.  They’ve lost their intimidation on the D-line, they aren’t running the ball well, and Hasselbeck will fall apart.  Meanwhile, the Browns are finding their stride.  They’re not a playoff team, but they’re scrappy.  I think they win this one at home.  Pick: Browns.

New Orleans (-7.5) vs JACKSONVILLE

DP: Jax defense isn't terrible, but do you want to take Blaine Gabbert and Jax 32nd ranked passing offense in a shootout with the Saints? Pick: Saints.

TJ:  I really wanted to take a home team getting more than a touchdown.  But the Jags?  I don’t like a single thing about this team.  The Saints will put up too many points.  Pick: Saints.

KANSAS CITY vs Minnesota (-1.5)

DP: Weird line as the Vikings are giving 3 to 3.5 points at most off shore books. I'll go contrarian here and take the reeling Chiefs to save face at home, but I'd feel a lot better with those 2 extra points. Pick: KC

TJ: Again, I don’t like either team.  I guess this time I’ll go with the home dog.  It will be amusing to see Minnesota blow up at 0-4.  Pick: Chiefs.

Pittsburgh (+3.5) vs HOUSTON

DP: Pitt has been terrible with turnovers, but I think some of that is chance and will even out. Houston does not handle physical teams well so I look for the Steelers to smack them around a little and pull out a narrow win. Pick: Pitt

TJ:  Houston is overrated and Pittsburgh is underrated.  I love getting 3.5 points to take the team I think will win outright anyway.  What a nice value bet.  Pick: Steelers.

ARIZONA (+1.5) vs NY Giants

DP: Another weird line as Arizona is getting 3 to 3.5 points at most books that I've seen. This is my upset special. I like the Cards to surprise the inconsistent Giants at home. Pick: Birds

TJ: I took Arizona to win the NFC West, and if they’re going to do it, they need this game.  Their defense has been atrocious, and the Giants seem to be getting on track with that win over Philly.  I hate to do it, but I’m gonna take the Giants to win on the road.  Pick: Giants.

Atlanta (-4.5) vs SEATTLE

DP: This line has been bet up to 6 now. Seattle is tougher at home, but I'll follow the smoke and take the Birds. Pick: Atl

TJ:  I think Atlanta isn’t the same team from last year.  Julio Jones may be the real deal, but Turner isn’t running well and that defense is playing terribly.  Seattle has one of the worst offenses in the league, but I think they get healthy this week and win at home.  Pick: Seaskanks.

Denver (+12.5) vs GREEN BAY

DP: Green Bay is between big games (@Chicago and @Falcons). I like them to get a lead early but to let up late and let Denver cover. Pick: Broncos

TJ: I agree with the Doc, this is just too many points to expect the Packers to cover on what amounts to an off week.  I think they relax at home and win by 10.  Pick: Broncos.

New England (-4.5) vs OAKLAND

DP: New England seems like a good value here. The Pats have the top passing game. The Raiders have the top running game. As Sean Connery would say that likes bringing a knife to a gun fight. Pick: Pats

TJ: The Pats will bounce back and get right this week with an absolute crushing of the Raiders.  They’ll score early and take away the Raiders’ ability to run the ball.  Campbell  won’t be able to take advantage of the Pats’ weak secondary.  I see a bunch of turnovers and a landslide for the Pats.  Pick: NE.

Miami (+7.5) vs SAN DIEGO

DP: I don't see an upset here, but I think that the 0-3 Dolphins will throw everything they have at winning this game before they go into their Bye next week. Pick: 'Fins

TJ:  San Diego will roll at home.  They’re the better team, they’re passing well and defending the pass well, and I don’t think Miami has the weapons to change that.  Reggie Bush certainly isn’t the answer!  Pick: Chargers.

NY Jets (+3.5) vs BALTIMORE

DP: This just feels like a low scoring slug fest. I don't see either team winning by more than a FG. Pick: J-E-T-S

TJ: The Jets have the second-worst rush defense in the league, and I think Ray Rice is going to gouge them.  I don’t like Flacco, but I don’t think the Ravens will have to rely on him much, as they should be able to keep the score low and pound away at that Jets’ D.  Pick: Ravens.

Indianapolis (+9.5) vs TAMPA BAY

DP: There are a lot of teams that probably want to kick Indy while they are down, but I don't see Tampa Bay as being one of them. I think Curtis Painter is just frisky enough to cover. Pick: Colts.

TJ:  A lot of points for Indy here, and like the Doc said, I don’t see the Bucs running up the score.  Pick: Indy.