@Tenn -6.5 Denver
DP: Tenn still confounds me. Big win last week, but they actually didn’t play that well. Vince Young can be rattled, but I don’t think the Broncos have the talent on defense to do it. Pick: Titans.
TJ: I can’t imagine the Titans losing at home to this Denver team, but this line is pretty high, and Kyle Orton hasn’t sucked nearly as much as I expected. Even so, I think Tennessee gets out to an early lead, Chris Johnson picks up 150 yards, and they slow the game way down and beat Denver 20-10.
@Pitt -1.5 Baltimore
DP: Baltimore needs it more and has the top defense against the pass which will make the Steelers one dimensional. Should be a tight, low scoring game. Pick: Ravens.
TJ: This line seems too low to me, even with Charlie Batch facing that stiff Ravens D. If Cincy could beat the Ravens, and the Browns could stay within a touchdown, I think Pittsburgh may win this big. They seem to be rallying around the “Nobody thought we could win without Ben” flag, and any time a team rallies together during adversity, that’s a good thing (see #1 from this weeks 5 Questions). Plus, there’s the fact that Joe Flacco’s looking about as tough as Lamar from Revenge of the Nerds these days. Pitt is the pick.
Cincinnati -3 @Cleveland
DP: Carson Palmer looks terrible and Cleveland is still playing hard. Division games are like 10 years of marriage: both sides know each other so well there are few surprises and there is usually little scoring. I don’t think Cincy has the talent to pull away. Pick: Brownies.
TJ: Cincy’s not that good, and damnit, the Browns are due! Cleveland wins outright at home.
@GB -14.5 Detroit
DP: The first of two big home favorites. The two pertinent questions for a big cover are: will the underdog turn the ball over enough to give the favorite more chances to score? Detroit is -1 while Green Bay is 0 so that is even. Second question is does the home team have incentive not to run up the score. I think Green Bay will be unwilling to run it by three scores against a division opponent. Pick: Lions.
TJ: Detroit is scrappy, and this is a huge line, but the Packers got robbed against the Bears last week, and I see them taking it out on the hapless Lions. Rodgers builds an early lead with a couple of bombs to Jennings and Driver, then Jackson and Kuhn rack up first down all afternoon to eat up the clock. I’ll lay the points and take the Pack.
@NO -13.5 Carolina
DP: Same logic, but different teams. NO is +3, Carolina is -6 for turnovers. Does NO have incentive? I say yes. The Saints have yet to cover this year and are looking to bounce back after a tough loss to Atlanta. I say they are willing to keep passing to stay up by 2 TDs. Pick: Saints.
TJ: Again, a huge line, and I’ve hated Carolina all year. But what’s up with the Saints? We know San Fran isn’t very good, and the Saints just snuck by them in Week 2. Atlanta’s a good team, and that overtime loss isn’t so bad, but it was at home. They don’t have Reggie Bush, who really demanded attention from the defense. It comes down to this, though: Carolina is awful, they’re starting an inexperienced QB on the road in a hostile environment, and the Saints know they can’t give away divisional games. Hate to do it, but I’m laying the points here, too, and taking N’awlins.
@Atlanta -7 San Fran
DP: Everything points to the Falcons. Big win against the Saints last week. They absolutely clobbered the 49ers last year. San Fran is traveling East for the second straight week. The turnover margin heavily favors Atlanta (+4 vs. -5). So why are they only -7 at home? I think this is a let down game for Atlanta. San Fran is still playing hard and know they can still win the NFC West and would love to get revenge against the Falcons. It will be difficult to game plan for a new offensive coordinator. This is my upset of the week. Pick: Niners.
TJ: At home? Against San Fran? And only giving a TD? Atlanta looks like a lock here to me. I don’t care if the Niners are desperate, they don’t have the talent to stay with the Birds. Atlanta is the pick.
Seattle -1 @St Louis
DP: My late game picks are terrible, in part because I can’t stand to watch the putrid West Coast teams. I thought St. Louis looked better in beating Washington than Seattle did in beating the Chargers (they got 2 kick-off returns and still barely held on). I’ll take the home team getting points against a West Coast squad traveling east. Pick: Rams.
TJ: Hey, the Rams have two losses by a total of 6 points, and they punched the Redskins in their collective taint last week in the dome. Bradford doesn’t suck (though his line and receivers do), and Seattle is unlikely to win a road game all year. Somebody better smack me, because I think I’m taking the Rams here!
NYJ -5.5 @Buff
DP: Jets.
TJ: The Jets have a good offense, they proved they can play on the road against Miami last week, and their coach seems to have shut the fuck up for the last few days. I like it. Meanwhile, Buffalo wasn’t embarrassed by the Pats last week, their “Hah-vahd” QB, Fitzpatrick, played a decent game (92.4 rating), and they’re at home, where they held Miami to 15 points in week 1. I’m not sold, though, and I’m going to say Rex throws a lot of blitzes at Fitzpatrick and forces a couple bad decisions, and Sanchez continues to manage the game well, allowing the Jets to cover the spread with ease.
Indy -7 @Jacksonville
DP: This has traditionally been a tough game for Indy (I know, I’ve watched it many times) as Jax usually gets up for the divisional bully. But it turns out Jax may just be really bad this year. Indy travels well and Jags don’t have a good enough running game to exploit the Colts weak line play. Pick: Colts.
TJ: The Eagles proved that you can go into Jacksonville and smoke the Jaguars, and the Colts will serve up a second helping this week. Peyton and the offense were firing on all cylinders against the Giants, and barely let off the gas pedal against Denver last week. Their defense may be pretty terrible against the run (29th in the league), but they’ve still held opponents to 17 points per game. Oh yeah, and Austin Collie is on pace for 2000 yards receiving and 21 TDs. The Jags won’t be the ones to knock him off that track. Gimme the Colts.
Houston -3 @Oakland
DP: A good team would travel across the country and beat a bad team. Oakland has just enough of a pass game to keep up with the Texans. Pick: Raiders.
TJ: Houston looks like the obvious pick here, but their big win against the Colts came at home, they barely squeaked by Washington in OT, and the Cowboys came to their house and dominated. I’m no Raider fan, but are they really that much worse than the ‘Boys and the ‘Skins? Oakland lost badly on the road to a very good Titans team, beat the Rams, and lost in Arizona by a point (OK, that’s still a bad loss). All I’m saying is, I don’t think Houston totally outclasses Oakland, and getting three points at home sounds pretty sweet to me. I’ll take the Raiders.
@SD -8.5 Arizona
DP: Arizona is terrible and turn over prone and San Diego has a great offense. Lock of the week. Pick: Chargers.
TJ: Yeah, Anderson is gonna win on the road. Right. He’s going to throw 9 fucking picks in this game, and Coach Kenny is going to have to sit there and suck on it, because his backup is Max Hall. Remember how great Max Hall was at BYU? Yeah, neither does anyone else. The Chargers aren’t very good, but they’re going to run it up on the Cards at home, maybe 35-17. SD is my pick.
@Philly -6 Washington
DP: The Washington defense is ‘experienced’ (that means old) and I think they will have a lot of trouble with the team speed on Philly. But this will be an emotional game on both sides and I think it will be tight. When in doubt take the points. Pick: Skins.
TJ: Philly’s laying six points at home, and I still like them. Their offense has looked great, and the D is excellent against the pass (Washington’s only hope) and weak against the run (Washington’s gameplan has less runs than Al Davis when he’s out of Muselix and prunes for a week). Everyone’s riding the Vick train, and I’m in the club car. I’ll lay the points and take the Eagles.
@NYG -4 Chicago
DP: This line is completely incomprehensible to me. The Giants have been terrible and the Bears are undefeated, so Vegas thinks the Giants would be a favorite on a neutral site? I have learned not to go against Vegas when things look this obvious. Pick: Giants.
TJ: Chicago’s victories have been very, very lucky. They’re a good team, but the Pack had them beat, and their three games have been won by 5, 7, and 3 points. That having been said, the Giants are 1-2 with losses of 24 and 19 points, and Coughlin seems to have lost the team (again). I don’t like either squad much, but I can’t take 1-2 against 3-0 and give up four points. Against my will, I’ll take the Bears.
NE -1 @Miami
DP: Basically you’re picking a winner. Pick: Pats.
TJ: This should be a really good game. Miami had two gutty road victories early, has a defense that’s giving up just over 14 points per game, and lost to a red-hot Jets team by only 8 points. That same Jets team beat the Pats by 14, and the Pats have to play on the road on a Monday Night, while their leading receiver is a rookie TE (whom I do love, by the way) and with a defense ranked in the bottom 3rd of the league. In a battle of former Michigan QB’s, I see Brady having the flashier numbers, but Henne doing just enough to get his team the win.
Doctor Psych is an MD, PhD, professor of Psychiatry living outside Dallas. A lifelong Colts fan, he battles his sports addictions in a daily fight to run a lab and raise his toddler son. The Juice is a PhD neuroscientist living in Manhattan. A former D-3 offensive lineman, he remains a lowly Browns supporter from before "The Drive," maintaining a will to live only for the sake of his three-year-old daughter. Each week, they analyze results, make predictions, and generally discuss NFL news.
Thursday, September 30, 2010
Wednesday, September 29, 2010
5 Questions for Week 4
This week, the questions are from the good doctor, and The Juice is going to break them off something proper. Here we go . . .
1. Recently, we have heard that several teams are “desperate” to save their season and will be playing harder (including Dallas, Minnesota, and San Francisco). While it’s clear that in sports like Baseball and Basketball players frequently take games off, is it possible to play harder in football when you are only playing once a week? In what phases of the game does more effort provide a benefit?
It’s true that some guys act like they’re getting “psyched up” and crazy before games, and maybe it helps their performance, but I’m not sure “playing harder” during certain games can be true of most NFL players (with the exception of some receivers – I’m looking at you, Randy). They’re professionals, and one would expect a professional level of effort in all games (unless the season is a foregone conclusion; either in a good way - the Colts in Week 17- or in a bad way - the Lions in Week 1). However, practicing better, concentrating more in film study and in learning new plays during the week, playing more cohesively with teammates, and having an attitude of taking preparation seriously can make a huge difference. Also, reducing stupid confrontations with coaches and teammates, and acting like an adult off the field, can certainly improve game-day performance, and one might expect certain players to improve those areas leading up to a game that deemed “desperate.” There is a psychological aspect to football, like any sport or activity, and desperation can be a good thing (causing responses like I outlined above) or a bad thing, as when a desperate team or player chokes with bad decisions or physical gaffs like turnovers, dropped passes, missed assignments, etc. It seems to me that the team will react as a whole according to the reactions of the leadership, meaning coaches and key players. This is what differentiates guys like Tony Romo (to this point in his career) from guys like Joe Montana, who was famous for poise under pressure. An example (courtesy of the Pro Football Hall of Fame Website) from Super Bowl XXIII against the Cincinnati Bengals. Trailing 16-13 with 3:20 left in the game, the 49ers had the ball on their own eight-yard line: "Some of the guys seemed more than normally tense," Montana recalled, "especially Harris Barton, a great offensive tackle who has a tendency to get nervous." As usual, Montana was just focusing on the situation, how far they had to go and how much time was left. Just then he happened to spot the late actor John Candy in the stands. "Look" he said, 'isn't that John Candy." It was hardly what his teammates expected to hear in the huddle with the Super Bowl on the line. But it definitely broke the tension. "Everybody kind of smiled, and even Harris relaxed, and then we all concentrated on the job we had to do." When that’s your leader, a team will improve in “desperate” times. Is it playing harder? Probably not. Playing better? Certainly possible.
2. In recent years, one of the best Superbowl predictors is the last team to lose a game starting the season. Of the 3 undefeated teams, which will be the last to lose? Pitt (Balt, Bye, Cleveland), Chicago (@NY Giants, @Carolina, Seattle), Kansas City (Bye, @Indy, @Houston)?
Pitt could lose to Baltimore, but I somehow doubt it. Their defense looks fantastic, and Joe Flacco has shown signs of mental fucktardulation when pressured. Chicago is more iffy, and could have lost to the Pack in 17 different ways, and also had close scrapes against Detroit and Dallas. I don’t like the Giants, but they’re playing in New York, so it’s almost a toss-up to me. KC WILL lose to Indy in two weeks, so if the Pittsburgh and Chicago survive this week, KC is out. Then Pitt has a bye and the Bears destroy Carolina, then both teams play soft home games (Cleveland and Seattle). The Bears follow up with Washington and Seattle, and Pittsburgh with Miami and New Orleans, which obviously favors the Bears. But that’s pretty far down the road. My guess is, the Bears either lose to the Giants, or lose one of the next three, and Pittsburgh is the last team standing.
3. The following recent players rank very high in either career rushing yards (Curtis Martin #4 all time, 14,101 yards; Jerome Bettis #5 All-time, 13,662 yards; Edgerrin James #11 all time, 12,121 yards) or career receiving yards (Isaac Bruce #2 all time, 15,208 yards; Tim Brown #4 all time, 14,943 yards; Marvin Harrison #5 all time, 14,580 yards; Cris Carter #8 all time, 13,899 yards; Torry Holt #10 all time, 13382 yards). Who deserves to go to the Hall of Fame?
Edge, Carter, and Holt are iffy, but I’d vote for the rest in a heartbeat. The rankings for yardage are skewed toward modern players due to the 16-game schedule and the expanded playoffs, but any Top-Ten All-Time in yardage is pretty impressive when the league is 88 or 90 years old, depending on where you start count. All of those guys except Edge and Carter made big contributions to Superbowl teams (Don’t forget Martin’s 1996 Pats and Brown’s 2002 Raiders) and Bettis, Bruce, and Harrison have rings. If I had to rank them in order of worthiness, I’d say: Bettis, Harrison, Bruce, Martin are in, in that order, then Edge, Carter, and Holt are out, but I could be convinced to give them another look.
4. The NFL is moving toward an 18 game schedule. Do you prefer starting earlier (like Labor Day Weekend) or pushing the Superbowl back to mid-February?
Earlier, by a wide margin. I like football in the snow, but by mid-February, the NBA is heating up, and NCAA basketball is becoming meaningful. The Superbowl should be at the end of January. Let’s play some summer games and give the (outdoor) Southern teams and early advantage to make up for the huge advantage the (outdoor) Northern teams get in November and after.
5. The following NFL teams share a city with an MLB team headed to the play-offs: Giants, Bucs, Vikings, Cowboys, Eagles, Falcons, Bengals, and 49ers. Which team will benefit the most from having media attention drawn away from them?
It would be the Giants, but there’s enough media in NYC to cover both them and the Yankees at 100% capacity at all times. If anybody in Texas gave a shit about the Rangers, I’d say the Cowboys had the greatest benefit. Since they don’t, I’m going to have to go with the Vikes. There are some die-hard Twins fans up there, and that team is extremely likable, with a low-budget roster of hustle guys and old man Jim Thome still getting the job done, and a super-quotable manager in Ron Gardenhire. The Vikes are under a lot of pressure, but can still turn their season around with a little win streak and a little less luck for the Bears. Flying under the radar (or at least not right in the spotlight) for a few weeks while the Twins get some attention might help them out quite a bit.
Tuesday, September 28, 2010
Week 3 Analysis
49ers (-3) 10-31 @Chiefs
DP: KC’s offense finally showed what they are capable of: 200 yards rushing and some deep plays from Cassel. Hard to believe KC already has a 2 game lead on San Diego. Meanwhile, the NFC West is totally up in the air. The 49ers play @ Atlanta then Philly, they could very well be 0-5 to start the season. Arizona and Seattle lead the division at 2-1 with St. Louis sitting at 1-2, but they all look TERRIBLE. Some lucky wild-card team will get to play of these turds.
TJ: The Niners fired offensive coordinator Jimmy Raye after this debacle, but that’s like giving a boob job to a dead hooker: it may be an improvement, but unless you’re really fucking crazy, it’s a little too late. As the good doctor says, though, the NFC West is nuts (and Bill Simmons just wrote a whole article on how a sub-.500 team could win that division), so I won’t bury this dead hooker until she’s got 9 losses. I keep telling myself the Chiefs can’t be for real, but they do have Charlie Weiss and Romeo Crennel as coordinators, and the last team that did that had a pretty decent run. Their division sucks, too, so maybe I’ve underestimated them.
@Minnesota (-11.5) 24-10 over Lions
DP: Yawn. After their Bye, the real stretch starts for Minny- @Jets, Cowboys, @Green Bay, @ New England. Need to go 2-2 to keep hope alive.
TJ: I’m with the Doc on this one as well: we learned nothing about the Vikings this week. They better come out of that bye week smoking, or my money will be on Farve to re-re-re-retire by week 7. The Lions continue to lose respectably, but they’re still a couple years away from being competitive.
@New England (-14) 38-30 Buffalo
DP: Move on folks, nothing to look at here.
TJ: Losing Faulk didn’t seem to slow down the NE offense, but then again, it was Buffalo. If they look as good at Miami next week, I’ll buy in. The Bills just cut Trent Edwards. Man, Buffalo, are you telling me the guy isn’t as good as your 3rd-stringer? Why did you keep him around so long then? Oh, that’s right, your management is incredibly inept. Sorry.
@Saints (-3.5) 24-27 Falcons
DP: The Falcons needed a little luck, but succeeded in getting the Saints attention. I suspect these two are neck and neck all year heading into a week 16 re-match in Atlanta. One of these two should get a top-2 seed in the NFC.
TJ: I don’t like the way the Saints let the Falcons hang around, and I think losing Reggie Bush hurt more than they’d like to admit. However, their next four games are CAR, AZ, TB, and CLE, meaning they’re a guaranteed 6-1, so it’s hard to be too pessimistic. The Falcons played a smart game and really got Michael Turner rolling. Their schedule is also pretty cushy, so I’m pretty sure that Week 16 rematch the Doc mentioned will be an awesome game.
@NY Giants (-3) 10-29 Titans
DP: I may have over estimated the Giants. It might be time to replace Tom Coughlin because the Giants apparently aren’t listening to him anymore.
TJ: I’m going to say this game was more about the Titans finding their stride. Remember, their D is only giving up 14 points per game, and they’ve got the best running back in the league. Strangely, they don’t play Houston or Indy until Week 12. They better be 7-3 at that point if they want a chance at a wild card spot.
Pittsburgh (-2.5) 38-13 @Tampa
DP: Ben R can do no worse than 3-1 now; which is pretty amazing given the string of QB injuries that Pitt has faced. Pitt still has 5 gimme wins left (Cleveland X2, Oakland, @Buff, Carolina). They look good for a play-off slot.
TJ: Seriously, did anyone think Tampa was for real? The Steelers look like a sexy Superbowl pick, but I say they were one Troy Polamalu injury from losses in their first two games (OT against Atlanta and 19-11 in Tennessee). They play Baltimore next week, and they need a win to convince me they’re an elite team.
Cincinnati (-3) 20-7 @Carolina
DP: Not much of a roar in this game. Jimmy Clausen was as bad as expected for a rookie debut (16/33, 188, 5.7 y/pass, 0 TD, 1 Int, 53.6 rating), but actually rated higher than Carson Palmer (19/37, 195, 5.3 y/pass, 1 TD, 2 Int, 53.3 rating). Is Carson Palmer the most over rated player in the NFL?
TJ: The Bengals aren’t good. Last week, their MVP was Joe Flacco. They’ll beat the Browns and Bucs in the next two weeks, and everyone will be overhyping them, and then they’ll get CRUSHED by Atlanta, Miami, Pittsburgh, and Indy, and everyone will shut the fuck up again. Last week I said Carolina sucked. I misspoke. They blow dirty goat assholes.
@Ravens (-10.5) 14-17 Browns
DP: I am impressed that the Browns are still playing hard despite the obvious fact they are going nowhere and their coach is a lame duck. Pitt vs. Baltimore should be a great match. The Ravens must win if they are serious about beating the Steelers for the division.
TJ: 3-point loss. 2-point loss. 7-point loss. 0-3. If they lose to the Bengals by less than a TD next week, I’m going to find that dirty goat in Carolina and see if I can join in. They Ravens are pros, and if Flacco can accept the Trent Dilfer memorial game-manager role, they’ll make the playoffs.
@Texans (-3) 13-27 Cowboys
DP: I watched the whole game and was impressed by the Cowboys poise and offensive diversity. Why can’t they play like that every week? Meanwhile, if they have no faith in their kicker then just sign someone already, I have no idea why they continue this charade.
TJ: The consensus says the Cowboys are talented head-cases while the Texans are smart, hard-working, and mediocre. I think the ‘Boys are mostly just poorly coached and value skill positions over the line. They’re finding their stride and might still be the best team in the NFC East, unless the Michael Vick experience 2.0 is for real. The Texans might be pretty good, but Indy will have them figured out by their Week 8 rematch (which follows an Indy bye week), and the Titans might be rolling by the time they play Houston in Week 12. It’s a long, but not impossible, road to a playoff spot for the Texans.
Washington (-3.5) 16-30 @Rams
DP: In the last 6 quarters the Redskins have gone from beating the Cowboys and having a big lead on the Houston, to collapsing against the Texans and crapping the bed against the Rams. Oh how quickly things go bad in the NFL.
TJ: Donovan is carrying a horrible team. No receivers, a running back that’s in his early 50’s, and a defense whose best player isn’t allowed to start because he’s too big an asshole. Meanwhile, MacNabb has to turn on ESPN at night and see Vick looking like a cross between Jim Brown and Joe Montana with all the offensive weapons the Redskins lack. And he has to play them in Philly next week. In a previous life, he must have beaten his grandmother to death with a bag of puppy corpses to deserve this karma. Oh, and the Rams still suck.
Eagles (-3.5) 28-3 @Jacksonville
DP: I may have been wrong about Michael Vick. At least I’m not alone. Philly now has the most intriguing offense in the NFL.
TJ: Everyone is (rightly) talking about Vick’s improved decision-making and patience. Maybe all Tony Romo needs is a couple years in jail and public humiliation, and he could develop pocket presence, too. The Eagles defense looked much improved against a weak Jacksonville squad. If they can play consistently against Washington and San Fran, they should be 4-1 going into a tough home game against Atlanta that should tell us a lot about both teams.
Indy (-5.5) 27-13 @Denver
DP: Austin Collie is on pace for 144 catches, 1915 yards and 21 touchdowns. Larry Fitzgerald is on pace for 64 receptions, 811 yards and 11 touchdowns. This is exhibit A of why you take an average receiver with a great QB over a great receiver with a terrible QB.
TJ: In Week 1, Houston proved you have to manhandle Indy to beat them. Which other teams can do that? I’d say Tenn would be a prime candidate, but the Colts don’t play them until Weeks 14 & 17, when they should have the record to cruise into the playoffs, and they don’t play Pitt, Minn, or Baltimore at all. Put them down for 12-4 and a first-round bye, as usual.
@Arizona (-4.5) 24-23 Raiders
DP: I don’t play Fantasy anymore, so there is really no reason to care about this game.
TJ: I thought Oakland might be smelling a little rosier this season, but losing to the Cards smells more like the contents of Al Davis’s colostomy bag. Put a fork in both these teams.
Chargers (-5.5) 20-27 @Seattle
DP: The fluke losses are adding up for the Chargers and will get no help from Marcus McNeil or Vincent Jackson for at least another 3 weeks. Meanwhile Seattle only has to win @ St. Louis to go 3-1 heading into their Bye Week. Could I have underestimated Pete Carroll as a coach? Nah.
TJ: The Vincent Jackson situation is just a debacle. As time goes on, his trade value decreases (less time to learn a new offense, develop chemistry with a new QB, etc), while the Chargers get no benefit from having him around. They seem to have no spark, and the Chiefs are looking better and better to win the AFC West. Meanwhile, the Seahawks are a great team! No, wait, they won two home games against shitty teams. If they somehow make the playoffs (and their schedule is so weak that it’s a real possibility), they will lose 85-0 in round 1.
@Miami (-2) 23-31 vs Jets
DP: I will need to put my distaste for the Jets aside and start betting on them if Sanchez decides to keep playing like an actual Pro Quarterback. The Dolphins killer schedule continues with New England, @Green Bay, Pitt, @Cincy, @Balt, Tenn, Chicago.
TJ: This was a big win for the Jets, and really sets them up to contend for the division. The get against the Bills twice, plus the Lions and Browns, which gives them six wins in the bank. The other nine games are tough, but winning just four of them means a good shot at the playoffs, and winning five means they’re in. I really like the Dolphins, but 23 rushes and 45 passes is not going to win games with Henne at QB.
Packers (-3) 17-20 @Bears
DP: Critics will say the Bears have been lucky (Calvin Johnson’s dropped TD pass in game 1, Packers fumble in game 3), but I say good teams are prepared to take advantage of lucky opportunities. The emergence of the Bears has to worry the Vikings as they could easily steal a wild-card from the Packers if they keep playing well.
TJ: These are two good teams, with two really stellar defenses. Special teams made the difference (when did Devin Hester come out of his coma?). They don’t play again until Week 17, so let’s hope it’s not a meaningless game with the starters resting for the playoffs. I know Chicago has a great D, but the Packers have to have more than 15 rush attempts to win (compared to 45 passes). They averaged 4.3 yards per rush, and were never way behind on the scoreboard, so why abandon the run like it’s a blind date with a herpes blister and a limp? C’mon coach, stop listening to the QB and start calling a balanced game.
Friday, September 24, 2010
Week 3 picks
@NY Giants -3 vs Titans
TJ: The Giants simply couldn’t handle Indy last week, but the Titans don’t have Peyton Manning running their offense. In fact, they’re a bit iffy on which QB actually should be calling the shots, and to be honest, I’m not sure if either choice is that great. I love Vince Young’s leadership, effort, and toughness, but I’m not sure his decision-making can get the job done. Collins is 63 years old, and he was no athlete when he was in his prime. Either way, New York (despite their fiasco at RB and a sub-standard defensive line compared to the usual Giants squads) should take care of business at home. I like the Giants to cover.
DP: This is the only game where I really have no clue who will win. None what so ever. Both looked pretty good Week 1 and then they both looked God Awful Week 2. I guess when in doubt take the points, but I would never ever bet on this game in real life. Pick: Titans.
@New England -14 vs Buffalo
TJ: The Jets gave New England all they could handle, and may have shaken the Patriots confidence a bit. Not enough to lose to Buffalo, though. This is a huge line, but the Bills are starting Fitzpatrick at QB for the first time this season, and their defense looks about as limp as grandpa’s dick when the prescription runs out. New England’s week 1 win over Cincy looked impressive at the time, but they needed two defensive TD’s to do it, and gave up 428 yards to a Bengals offense no one is raving about. I think the Bills can keep it under 14 this week.
DP: This is an easy one. People look at the Bills and say they got blown out by the Packers and are starting a new QB. Then they look at the Patriots who will be fired up at home after a tough loss to the Jets. But take a closer look. Intra-division games are usually lower scoring because both teams are familiar with each other (Advantage Bills). The Pats will likely run vanilla offense because their next four games are @Miami, Balt, @San Diego, and Minn. Those are important games and they don’t want to give anything away. The Bills coaches know that letting the new QB Fitzpatrick throw down the field will lead to a blow out and crush team confidence. I think they grind it out running plays, eat clock, and punt often to back up the Pats. The Pats win comfortably but have no incentive to run it up on the Bills. Pick: Bills.
@Ravens -10.5 vs Browns
TJ: What’s going on in Cleveland? They have two very close losses to two undefeated teams. Sounds good on paper, until you realize those teams are the Chiefs and the Bucs. Looks like Delhomme is out again this week, which would normally make Browns fans happier than Romeo Crennel with a 50%-Off Sizzler coupon, but backup Seneca Wallace is seven kinds of awful. The Ravens have semi-issues at QB, with Flacco throwing way too many picks, and the Browns D is only giving up 16 points a game (13 if you don’t count the pick return for a TD by the Chiefs’ Brandon Flowers). I don’t think the Browns have much of a shot at winning this game, but a low-scoring affair doesn’t seem out of the question. I’ll take Cleveland and the points.
DP: This I think is also another easy one. The Ravens do have an incentive to run up the score. This is the home opener and they need to get their QB Flacco some confidence. The Browns will have a hard time scoring enough points against a stout Ravens D to keep up unless Joshua Cribbs runs back a couple of scores. Lock of the Week. Pick: Ravens
Pittsburgh -2.5 @Tampa
TJ: Time for the real Bucs to show up. The Steelers cover easily in a romp.
DP: Its funny because before the season this is the one game everyone pointed to in Pitt’s schedule and said “They will win this one. If they can get one more, then they will be 2-2 when Ben R. comes back.” Now they have a shot at 4-0. The Pitt defense is tough and they know they have to play great with all of the QB problems. They just need to win by a FG to cover and I think they do. Pick: Pitt.
Cincinnati -3 @Carolina
TJ: I’ve disliked the Panthers from day one this season, and Cincinnati really surprised me by beating a tough Ravens squad last week. The Bengals offense looked rough against the Ravens, though, and I’m not sure the TO/Ochocinco duo is ready for a breakout performance yet. On the flip side, Carolina is starting a rookie QB in his first game, so I’ll take Cincy to cover the 3 points.
DP: Another home dog. Carolina has looked terrible, is starting a rookie, and Cincy has a tough D. Pick: Cincy.
@Saints -3.5 vs Falcons
TJ: The Falcons looked rejuvenated last week against the lowly Cards, while the Saints have barely scraped by in two close games. Michael Turner should be back for this game, and Falcons’ backup RB Snelling made it look easy against the porous Cardinal defense last week, so I think the game will come down to the Dirty Bird defense. I have to think the Saints offense will open up at some point, but losing Reggie Bush to a broken fibula makes it seem less likely that this is the week. The Saints are mentally tough, so I think they win this game by a field goal, which means I’m taking Atlanta with the points.
DP: Vegas is absolutely begging you to take the Saints at only -3.5 at home. Vegas usually knows what they are doing. Pick: Dirty Birds.
49ers -3 @Chiefs
TJ: Are the 49ers decent or not? They played the Saints down to the wire last week, and Frank Gore seems to be heating up, but man, Alex Smith throws touchdowns about as frequently as Antonio Cromartie turns down unprotected sex. No matter what, though, I simply can’t see the Chiefs going 3-0 with Matt Cassel and a bunch of scrubs. I’ll lay the 3 points, gimme San Fran.
DP: This is the first time in history a team that didn’t make the play-offs is getting 3 on the road? I think these teams have similar philosophies: run the ball, play tough D, don’t turn the ball over. Plus you have to figure in San Fran has to travel on a short week, Arrowhead will absolutely be crazy, and KC knows this is a must win game before playing @Houston and @Indy. I don’t see anyway the 49ers pull away and win by more than FG. Pick: Chiefs
@Minnesota -11.5 vs Lions
TJ: 11.5 is a big line for an 0-2 team. Detroit doesn’t suck as much as I expected, but a road win in Minnesota seems beyond them. I think the Lions keep it close, but break their fans’ hearts in the end. Lions lose, but by less than 11.
DP: Again this is easy. Intra-division foe so the Lions are familiar with both Favre and the Vikings. The Lions have played hard and Calvin Johnson was absolutely built to put up garbage time TDs. No way the Vikes cover. This is the upset of the week. Pick: Lions
@Texans -3 vs Cowboys
TJ: I don’t mean to hate on the Cowboys, but doesn’t everyone want to see the Texans win this one just to watch Jerry Jones’s botox-filled face explode? Houston’s D manhandled the Indy offense in week 1, and is giving up only 2.3 yards per rush attempt on the season. I think that puts the game in Tony Romo’s hands, and I don’t trust that dude. Texans cover at home, and Wade Phillips gets to start spending a lot more time with his great-grandchildren.
DP: I will actually break down the game for you. The Cowboys shaky O-line is actually playing better, but is much better at pass protecting that run blocking. The game is in a Dome. The Houston D has given up more than 800 yards passing in the first two weeks. Tony Romo says the Cowboys need to run the ball more (liar). On the Houston side, the Dallas safeties are terrible and the biggest problem on the D now. Houston has 4 legit receivers (Johnson, Walter, Jones, Daniels). Everything points to high scoring game. With a high scoring game and a line of 3, just pick the team you think wins. Pick: Houston.
Washington -3.5 @Rams
TJ: Road game against a shitty team: here’s where we find out if the ‘Skins can make a run at the playoffs or not. I say yes, and I’ll take Washington to cover.
DP: Another home dog. I think the Redskins will collapse this year. But not yet. Pick: Skins.
Eagles -3.5 @Jacksonville
TJ: Did anyone else notice that the Eagles gave up 444 yards to the Lions last week? This one may come down to the QB, just not the one you’re thinking of. I mean David Garrard, and I’m wondering which version we’ll see against the Eagles: the one who beat Denver (QB rating 138.5), or the one who blew it against San Diego (rating 62.7). I don’t see Vick blowing this and embarrassing Reid (who’s taking a pretty big risk handing him the team this early), but I don’t necessarily think he’ll blow the doors off, either. This is a tough game, but I’ll take the Jags and the points.
DP: Jax looked terrible last week, but that was on the road at San Diego. The Eagles offense looked great, but not the D. Philly has a division foe next week which means they could be looking ahead a bit. I’ve already decided that Jax is a good bad team which means they are tough at home. I’ll take the points and make Vick prove he can do it 2 weeks in a row. Pick: Jax
Indy -5.5 @Denver
TJ: Well, Doc, how do you feel about your Colts after that big win over little bro and the Giants? I think they’re getting on track, but laying five and a half on the road at Mile High seems steep. The Broncos are dealing with some serious stuff this week with the death of Kenny McKinley (see Quick Hits below), and they could respond by being understandably distracted and unfocused, or by playing with unmatched intensity in dedication to their missing teammate. I’m not sure, but I think Denver responds by pulling together and gives the Colts all they can handle. I’ll take the Broncos.
DP: The Colts were built to build up a quick lead then unleash a speedy pass rush against teams that need to throw to catch up. When they don’t build an early lead, they usually struggle and rely on Manning to come up clutch. Several factors make me think they will not build an early lead. On the road, in altitude, on grass. All of that slows the Colts. Josh McDaniel knows how to play the Colts. You either have to ram the ball down their throat (like Houston in Week 1) or move the changes with long slow drives by making short, quick, accurate passes (like Drew Brees in the Superbowl). I think they can do a little of both with Moreno and Orton (the poor man’s Brees). Colts win but don’t cover. Picks: Broncos.
Chargers -5.5 @Seattle
TJ: I refuse to put any stock at all in Seattle’s Week 1 win now. I think they got lucky and caught San Fran with their pants down. Denver trounced the Seahawks last week, and I think the Chargers will do the same. SD covers.
DP: Don’t over react to Week 2. These teams are more evenly matched than you think. I’ll take the home team and the points. Pick: Hawks.
@Arizona -4.5 vs Raiders
TJ: I think the Raiders have made some improvements, but this is a division game on the road. The QB position is interesting: we know Derek Anderson is atrocious, but we don’t really know Bruce Gradkowski yet. He’s far from a rookie (he’s in his 5th year), and he had an 80.6 QB rating in seven games with Oakland last year, not bad, considering his lack of targets. The Raiders’ running game has made some strides (McFadden’s averaging 120 yards per game on 5.0 yards per rush), and the Arizona run defense was non-existent last week. I hate betting the Raiders on the road, but I can’t back the Cards. Oakland is the bet.
DP: Arizona is finally at home and has to feel good they are 1-1 after two road games. Derek Anderson is better at Man-to-Man than Zone coverage. The Raiders just feel like a “win one-lose one” kind of team. Pick: Cards.
@Miami -2 vs Jets
TJ: I’m really looking forward to this game. The Doc and I have liked Miami since the preseason (see our Preaseason Thoughts and Theories post), and the Jets may have shot their wad last week against the Pats. Braylon Edwards isn’t starting, and if Ryan has any integrity at all, he’ll bench him for the whole game, even though it might hurt the offense. Also, Revis is out this week with a hamstring injury, and Miami would love to take advantage by opening up their (to this point) conservative passing game. Chad Henne hasn’t thrown an INT yet, and Ronnie Brown is averaging 5.6 yards per carry, a testament to their grind-it-out style. Plus, Miami is 2-0 on the road, and this is their home opener, while the Jets are 1-1 and have yet to travel. I’m probably retarded, but I just talked myself into Miami. I’ll lay the points, go Phins!
DP: The spread is close enough to just pick the winner and hope they cover. I’ve liked Miami as a sleeper all pre-season. I also thought the Jets were over rated all pre-season. Pick: Miami.
Packers -3 @Bears
TJ: Cutler’s stock is soaring, and the Bears’ defense is showing signs of life, but 1-11 on 3rd down and 2 yards per rush against Dallas isn’t so great. Green Bay is scoring 30 points per game and giving up only 14, and both teams are 2-0 with a road win under their belts. How do we differentiate between these squads? Vegas seems to think GB is the better team, since they’re laying points on the road, but there are some problems. With Ryan Grant out for the year, GB will rely on Brandon Jackson to tote the rock, but he only had 29 yards at home against the Bills (and the Bills rush defense is about as successful as Joaquin Phoenix’s rap career). The Bears’ D is #1 in the league against the run, which means the game is in Aaron Rodgers’ hands. He’s a capable, maybe a great, QB, but on the road in the division laying 3 points? I’ll take the Bears.
DP: I think people might be getting a little carried away with the Packers. They have a nice offense, but their passing D is still questionable. I’ll take the home team and the points. Pick: Bears.
TJ: The Giants simply couldn’t handle Indy last week, but the Titans don’t have Peyton Manning running their offense. In fact, they’re a bit iffy on which QB actually should be calling the shots, and to be honest, I’m not sure if either choice is that great. I love Vince Young’s leadership, effort, and toughness, but I’m not sure his decision-making can get the job done. Collins is 63 years old, and he was no athlete when he was in his prime. Either way, New York (despite their fiasco at RB and a sub-standard defensive line compared to the usual Giants squads) should take care of business at home. I like the Giants to cover.
DP: This is the only game where I really have no clue who will win. None what so ever. Both looked pretty good Week 1 and then they both looked God Awful Week 2. I guess when in doubt take the points, but I would never ever bet on this game in real life. Pick: Titans.
@New England -14 vs Buffalo
TJ: The Jets gave New England all they could handle, and may have shaken the Patriots confidence a bit. Not enough to lose to Buffalo, though. This is a huge line, but the Bills are starting Fitzpatrick at QB for the first time this season, and their defense looks about as limp as grandpa’s dick when the prescription runs out. New England’s week 1 win over Cincy looked impressive at the time, but they needed two defensive TD’s to do it, and gave up 428 yards to a Bengals offense no one is raving about. I think the Bills can keep it under 14 this week.
DP: This is an easy one. People look at the Bills and say they got blown out by the Packers and are starting a new QB. Then they look at the Patriots who will be fired up at home after a tough loss to the Jets. But take a closer look. Intra-division games are usually lower scoring because both teams are familiar with each other (Advantage Bills). The Pats will likely run vanilla offense because their next four games are @Miami, Balt, @San Diego, and Minn. Those are important games and they don’t want to give anything away. The Bills coaches know that letting the new QB Fitzpatrick throw down the field will lead to a blow out and crush team confidence. I think they grind it out running plays, eat clock, and punt often to back up the Pats. The Pats win comfortably but have no incentive to run it up on the Bills. Pick: Bills.
@Ravens -10.5 vs Browns
TJ: What’s going on in Cleveland? They have two very close losses to two undefeated teams. Sounds good on paper, until you realize those teams are the Chiefs and the Bucs. Looks like Delhomme is out again this week, which would normally make Browns fans happier than Romeo Crennel with a 50%-Off Sizzler coupon, but backup Seneca Wallace is seven kinds of awful. The Ravens have semi-issues at QB, with Flacco throwing way too many picks, and the Browns D is only giving up 16 points a game (13 if you don’t count the pick return for a TD by the Chiefs’ Brandon Flowers). I don’t think the Browns have much of a shot at winning this game, but a low-scoring affair doesn’t seem out of the question. I’ll take Cleveland and the points.
DP: This I think is also another easy one. The Ravens do have an incentive to run up the score. This is the home opener and they need to get their QB Flacco some confidence. The Browns will have a hard time scoring enough points against a stout Ravens D to keep up unless Joshua Cribbs runs back a couple of scores. Lock of the Week. Pick: Ravens
Pittsburgh -2.5 @Tampa
TJ: Time for the real Bucs to show up. The Steelers cover easily in a romp.
DP: Its funny because before the season this is the one game everyone pointed to in Pitt’s schedule and said “They will win this one. If they can get one more, then they will be 2-2 when Ben R. comes back.” Now they have a shot at 4-0. The Pitt defense is tough and they know they have to play great with all of the QB problems. They just need to win by a FG to cover and I think they do. Pick: Pitt.
Cincinnati -3 @Carolina
TJ: I’ve disliked the Panthers from day one this season, and Cincinnati really surprised me by beating a tough Ravens squad last week. The Bengals offense looked rough against the Ravens, though, and I’m not sure the TO/Ochocinco duo is ready for a breakout performance yet. On the flip side, Carolina is starting a rookie QB in his first game, so I’ll take Cincy to cover the 3 points.
DP: Another home dog. Carolina has looked terrible, is starting a rookie, and Cincy has a tough D. Pick: Cincy.
@Saints -3.5 vs Falcons
TJ: The Falcons looked rejuvenated last week against the lowly Cards, while the Saints have barely scraped by in two close games. Michael Turner should be back for this game, and Falcons’ backup RB Snelling made it look easy against the porous Cardinal defense last week, so I think the game will come down to the Dirty Bird defense. I have to think the Saints offense will open up at some point, but losing Reggie Bush to a broken fibula makes it seem less likely that this is the week. The Saints are mentally tough, so I think they win this game by a field goal, which means I’m taking Atlanta with the points.
DP: Vegas is absolutely begging you to take the Saints at only -3.5 at home. Vegas usually knows what they are doing. Pick: Dirty Birds.
49ers -3 @Chiefs
TJ: Are the 49ers decent or not? They played the Saints down to the wire last week, and Frank Gore seems to be heating up, but man, Alex Smith throws touchdowns about as frequently as Antonio Cromartie turns down unprotected sex. No matter what, though, I simply can’t see the Chiefs going 3-0 with Matt Cassel and a bunch of scrubs. I’ll lay the 3 points, gimme San Fran.
DP: This is the first time in history a team that didn’t make the play-offs is getting 3 on the road? I think these teams have similar philosophies: run the ball, play tough D, don’t turn the ball over. Plus you have to figure in San Fran has to travel on a short week, Arrowhead will absolutely be crazy, and KC knows this is a must win game before playing @Houston and @Indy. I don’t see anyway the 49ers pull away and win by more than FG. Pick: Chiefs
@Minnesota -11.5 vs Lions
TJ: 11.5 is a big line for an 0-2 team. Detroit doesn’t suck as much as I expected, but a road win in Minnesota seems beyond them. I think the Lions keep it close, but break their fans’ hearts in the end. Lions lose, but by less than 11.
DP: Again this is easy. Intra-division foe so the Lions are familiar with both Favre and the Vikings. The Lions have played hard and Calvin Johnson was absolutely built to put up garbage time TDs. No way the Vikes cover. This is the upset of the week. Pick: Lions
@Texans -3 vs Cowboys
TJ: I don’t mean to hate on the Cowboys, but doesn’t everyone want to see the Texans win this one just to watch Jerry Jones’s botox-filled face explode? Houston’s D manhandled the Indy offense in week 1, and is giving up only 2.3 yards per rush attempt on the season. I think that puts the game in Tony Romo’s hands, and I don’t trust that dude. Texans cover at home, and Wade Phillips gets to start spending a lot more time with his great-grandchildren.
DP: I will actually break down the game for you. The Cowboys shaky O-line is actually playing better, but is much better at pass protecting that run blocking. The game is in a Dome. The Houston D has given up more than 800 yards passing in the first two weeks. Tony Romo says the Cowboys need to run the ball more (liar). On the Houston side, the Dallas safeties are terrible and the biggest problem on the D now. Houston has 4 legit receivers (Johnson, Walter, Jones, Daniels). Everything points to high scoring game. With a high scoring game and a line of 3, just pick the team you think wins. Pick: Houston.
Washington -3.5 @Rams
TJ: Road game against a shitty team: here’s where we find out if the ‘Skins can make a run at the playoffs or not. I say yes, and I’ll take Washington to cover.
DP: Another home dog. I think the Redskins will collapse this year. But not yet. Pick: Skins.
Eagles -3.5 @Jacksonville
TJ: Did anyone else notice that the Eagles gave up 444 yards to the Lions last week? This one may come down to the QB, just not the one you’re thinking of. I mean David Garrard, and I’m wondering which version we’ll see against the Eagles: the one who beat Denver (QB rating 138.5), or the one who blew it against San Diego (rating 62.7). I don’t see Vick blowing this and embarrassing Reid (who’s taking a pretty big risk handing him the team this early), but I don’t necessarily think he’ll blow the doors off, either. This is a tough game, but I’ll take the Jags and the points.
DP: Jax looked terrible last week, but that was on the road at San Diego. The Eagles offense looked great, but not the D. Philly has a division foe next week which means they could be looking ahead a bit. I’ve already decided that Jax is a good bad team which means they are tough at home. I’ll take the points and make Vick prove he can do it 2 weeks in a row. Pick: Jax
Indy -5.5 @Denver
TJ: Well, Doc, how do you feel about your Colts after that big win over little bro and the Giants? I think they’re getting on track, but laying five and a half on the road at Mile High seems steep. The Broncos are dealing with some serious stuff this week with the death of Kenny McKinley (see Quick Hits below), and they could respond by being understandably distracted and unfocused, or by playing with unmatched intensity in dedication to their missing teammate. I’m not sure, but I think Denver responds by pulling together and gives the Colts all they can handle. I’ll take the Broncos.
DP: The Colts were built to build up a quick lead then unleash a speedy pass rush against teams that need to throw to catch up. When they don’t build an early lead, they usually struggle and rely on Manning to come up clutch. Several factors make me think they will not build an early lead. On the road, in altitude, on grass. All of that slows the Colts. Josh McDaniel knows how to play the Colts. You either have to ram the ball down their throat (like Houston in Week 1) or move the changes with long slow drives by making short, quick, accurate passes (like Drew Brees in the Superbowl). I think they can do a little of both with Moreno and Orton (the poor man’s Brees). Colts win but don’t cover. Picks: Broncos.
Chargers -5.5 @Seattle
TJ: I refuse to put any stock at all in Seattle’s Week 1 win now. I think they got lucky and caught San Fran with their pants down. Denver trounced the Seahawks last week, and I think the Chargers will do the same. SD covers.
DP: Don’t over react to Week 2. These teams are more evenly matched than you think. I’ll take the home team and the points. Pick: Hawks.
@Arizona -4.5 vs Raiders
TJ: I think the Raiders have made some improvements, but this is a division game on the road. The QB position is interesting: we know Derek Anderson is atrocious, but we don’t really know Bruce Gradkowski yet. He’s far from a rookie (he’s in his 5th year), and he had an 80.6 QB rating in seven games with Oakland last year, not bad, considering his lack of targets. The Raiders’ running game has made some strides (McFadden’s averaging 120 yards per game on 5.0 yards per rush), and the Arizona run defense was non-existent last week. I hate betting the Raiders on the road, but I can’t back the Cards. Oakland is the bet.
DP: Arizona is finally at home and has to feel good they are 1-1 after two road games. Derek Anderson is better at Man-to-Man than Zone coverage. The Raiders just feel like a “win one-lose one” kind of team. Pick: Cards.
@Miami -2 vs Jets
TJ: I’m really looking forward to this game. The Doc and I have liked Miami since the preseason (see our Preaseason Thoughts and Theories post), and the Jets may have shot their wad last week against the Pats. Braylon Edwards isn’t starting, and if Ryan has any integrity at all, he’ll bench him for the whole game, even though it might hurt the offense. Also, Revis is out this week with a hamstring injury, and Miami would love to take advantage by opening up their (to this point) conservative passing game. Chad Henne hasn’t thrown an INT yet, and Ronnie Brown is averaging 5.6 yards per carry, a testament to their grind-it-out style. Plus, Miami is 2-0 on the road, and this is their home opener, while the Jets are 1-1 and have yet to travel. I’m probably retarded, but I just talked myself into Miami. I’ll lay the points, go Phins!
DP: The spread is close enough to just pick the winner and hope they cover. I’ve liked Miami as a sleeper all pre-season. I also thought the Jets were over rated all pre-season. Pick: Miami.
Packers -3 @Bears
TJ: Cutler’s stock is soaring, and the Bears’ defense is showing signs of life, but 1-11 on 3rd down and 2 yards per rush against Dallas isn’t so great. Green Bay is scoring 30 points per game and giving up only 14, and both teams are 2-0 with a road win under their belts. How do we differentiate between these squads? Vegas seems to think GB is the better team, since they’re laying points on the road, but there are some problems. With Ryan Grant out for the year, GB will rely on Brandon Jackson to tote the rock, but he only had 29 yards at home against the Bills (and the Bills rush defense is about as successful as Joaquin Phoenix’s rap career). The Bears’ D is #1 in the league against the run, which means the game is in Aaron Rodgers’ hands. He’s a capable, maybe a great, QB, but on the road in the division laying 3 points? I’ll take the Bears.
DP: I think people might be getting a little carried away with the Packers. They have a nice offense, but their passing D is still questionable. I’ll take the home team and the points. Pick: Bears.
Thursday, September 23, 2010
5 Questions for Week 3:
This time, The Juice is asking the questions, and the good Doctor is doling out a prescription of petrifyingly proper prognostication.
First off, I just wanted to say that last week’s questions turned out to be very pertinent, and my answers pretty much knocked them out of the park. Doc, you may have killed me on the picks, but now you’ve got a lot to live up to trying to handle these five stumpers. Get your pencil ready, aaannnnddd . . . . . BEGIN!
1. After only two weeks, we have little data to go on, but the point differentials for each division against teams from all other divisions look like this: NFC North +42, South +26, East -38, and West -56; AFC North -4, South +26, East -7, and West +14. Does this tell us anything? Which division is the strongest overall in each conference? The intra-conference and inter-confernce pairings are always interesting to me. For intra-conference in the AFC we have East-North and South-West. There are 3 good teams in the East and North so they may beat each other up a bit. Advantage AFC where Houston, Indy, and Tenn will pad their records on the awful West. In the NFC East plays North and West plays South. Huge advantage to Atlanta and New Orleans. For inter-conference AFC East plays NFC North (another tough draw for the East), the AFC North plays the NFC South (again an advantage to Atlanta and New Orleans), the AFC South plays the NFC East (the East may be down a little this year, so not a terrible draw for Colts, Texans, and Titans) and the AFC West plays the NFC West (the only hope the NFC West has for a .500 team making the play-offs. My initial impression is that Atlanta or New Orleans will have home field advantage throughout and the other will have the top wild-card. In the AFC, the South will probably get at least one wild-card leaving three spots for New England, Miami, NY Jets, Cincy, Pitt, and Baltimore to fight over.
2. Two 0-2 teams had real preseason aspirations for a championship: the Cowboys and the Vikings. They play the Texans and the Lions, respectively, in Week 3. Which team is more desperate for a win? Are title hopes still alive for either squad? I live in Dallas where the desperation is palpable. A loss here could very well trigger the following events: Wade Phillips (aka Grandpa) is fired, Jerry Jones trades for Marcus McNeil, and the Psychiatry Emergency Room is filled with suicidal Cowboy fans Monday morning who can’t bear to face the taunting from Houston fans at work. The Vikings have pretty much hitched their pony to Favre.
3. Conversely, the Chiefs and Buccaneers, two teams with basement expectations in the preseason, are 2-0, and they play the 49ers and Steelers in Week 3. Which team has a better chance for a Week 3 win? Can either team make noise in the playoffs? The Bucs are a nice story, but lets not get carried away. They beat the Browns (or rather Delhomme beat himself) and the lowly Panthers. They would have to pass Atlanta and New Orleans and I don’t see that happening. The Chiefs still have a legit shot at winning the West. San Fran is ripe this week coming to Arrowhead on short rest. The Chargers may have more talent, but the players are united against the GM. Can the make noise in the playoffs? Well if they win the West, it means they would host one of the following: Indy, Houston, Tenn, New England, Miami, NY Jets, Cincy, Pitt, or Baltimore. Unlikely but not impossible.
4. Through 2 weeks, Jay Cutler leads the league with a QB rating of 121.2, with Michael Vick (105.5) and Kyle Orton (103.9) in the top 5. The bottom 5 includes Bret Favre (56.1), Matt Cassel (55.8), and in dead last, Joe Flacco (41.2). Do these numbers reflect reality for these players, or will we see things flip as the season progresses? No, I think we will see regression to the mean. But I still expect a nice season from Cutler. Flacco had two tough match-ups @NY Jets and @Cincy, he should bounce back. Favre may be done though.
5. The last few seasons have seen free agency in the NBA become dominated by the players’ desire to play in certain cities or with certain teammates. Obviously, the high-profile example is the Miami Heat situation, but it’s also been true of L.A., NYC, and Chicago, and has hurt teams like Milwaukee, Indiana, and (of course) Cleveland. Could this trend spread to the NFL? Is it possible that a large group of talented free agents could choose to sign with a single team for reduced money, and set up an NFL version of the Heat? In the future, will teams like the Packers and Vikings find it hard to compete for marquee talent with the likes of Miami and San Diego? Historically, the average length of an NFL career is much shorter (around 4 years) and the risk of career ending injury is much higher, so fewer players want to risk making it all the way to free agency. That plus a hard cap and Franchise tag has limited player movement (in fact you could argue in 20 years, the only two difference makers acquired through free agency were Reggie White and Drew Brees). That being said, I do think cash rich teams like the Cowboys and Redskins may try to free up the system in the future for more player movement in the next collective bargaining agreement. I think most fans and players hate the Franchise Tag, I could see that being eliminated by the owners as a concession in the bargaining.
First off, I just wanted to say that last week’s questions turned out to be very pertinent, and my answers pretty much knocked them out of the park. Doc, you may have killed me on the picks, but now you’ve got a lot to live up to trying to handle these five stumpers. Get your pencil ready, aaannnnddd . . . . . BEGIN!
1. After only two weeks, we have little data to go on, but the point differentials for each division against teams from all other divisions look like this: NFC North +42, South +26, East -38, and West -56; AFC North -4, South +26, East -7, and West +14. Does this tell us anything? Which division is the strongest overall in each conference? The intra-conference and inter-confernce pairings are always interesting to me. For intra-conference in the AFC we have East-North and South-West. There are 3 good teams in the East and North so they may beat each other up a bit. Advantage AFC where Houston, Indy, and Tenn will pad their records on the awful West. In the NFC East plays North and West plays South. Huge advantage to Atlanta and New Orleans. For inter-conference AFC East plays NFC North (another tough draw for the East), the AFC North plays the NFC South (again an advantage to Atlanta and New Orleans), the AFC South plays the NFC East (the East may be down a little this year, so not a terrible draw for Colts, Texans, and Titans) and the AFC West plays the NFC West (the only hope the NFC West has for a .500 team making the play-offs. My initial impression is that Atlanta or New Orleans will have home field advantage throughout and the other will have the top wild-card. In the AFC, the South will probably get at least one wild-card leaving three spots for New England, Miami, NY Jets, Cincy, Pitt, and Baltimore to fight over.
2. Two 0-2 teams had real preseason aspirations for a championship: the Cowboys and the Vikings. They play the Texans and the Lions, respectively, in Week 3. Which team is more desperate for a win? Are title hopes still alive for either squad? I live in Dallas where the desperation is palpable. A loss here could very well trigger the following events: Wade Phillips (aka Grandpa) is fired, Jerry Jones trades for Marcus McNeil, and the Psychiatry Emergency Room is filled with suicidal Cowboy fans Monday morning who can’t bear to face the taunting from Houston fans at work. The Vikings have pretty much hitched their pony to Favre.
3. Conversely, the Chiefs and Buccaneers, two teams with basement expectations in the preseason, are 2-0, and they play the 49ers and Steelers in Week 3. Which team has a better chance for a Week 3 win? Can either team make noise in the playoffs? The Bucs are a nice story, but lets not get carried away. They beat the Browns (or rather Delhomme beat himself) and the lowly Panthers. They would have to pass Atlanta and New Orleans and I don’t see that happening. The Chiefs still have a legit shot at winning the West. San Fran is ripe this week coming to Arrowhead on short rest. The Chargers may have more talent, but the players are united against the GM. Can the make noise in the playoffs? Well if they win the West, it means they would host one of the following: Indy, Houston, Tenn, New England, Miami, NY Jets, Cincy, Pitt, or Baltimore. Unlikely but not impossible.
4. Through 2 weeks, Jay Cutler leads the league with a QB rating of 121.2, with Michael Vick (105.5) and Kyle Orton (103.9) in the top 5. The bottom 5 includes Bret Favre (56.1), Matt Cassel (55.8), and in dead last, Joe Flacco (41.2). Do these numbers reflect reality for these players, or will we see things flip as the season progresses? No, I think we will see regression to the mean. But I still expect a nice season from Cutler. Flacco had two tough match-ups @NY Jets and @Cincy, he should bounce back. Favre may be done though.
5. The last few seasons have seen free agency in the NBA become dominated by the players’ desire to play in certain cities or with certain teammates. Obviously, the high-profile example is the Miami Heat situation, but it’s also been true of L.A., NYC, and Chicago, and has hurt teams like Milwaukee, Indiana, and (of course) Cleveland. Could this trend spread to the NFL? Is it possible that a large group of talented free agents could choose to sign with a single team for reduced money, and set up an NFL version of the Heat? In the future, will teams like the Packers and Vikings find it hard to compete for marquee talent with the likes of Miami and San Diego? Historically, the average length of an NFL career is much shorter (around 4 years) and the risk of career ending injury is much higher, so fewer players want to risk making it all the way to free agency. That plus a hard cap and Franchise tag has limited player movement (in fact you could argue in 20 years, the only two difference makers acquired through free agency were Reggie White and Drew Brees). That being said, I do think cash rich teams like the Cowboys and Redskins may try to free up the system in the future for more player movement in the next collective bargaining agreement. I think most fans and players hate the Franchise Tag, I could see that being eliminated by the owners as a concession in the bargaining.
Wednesday, September 22, 2010
Zen and the Art of Picking Football Games Against the Line
Dear friends,
If one statistic stood out this week, it was this:
If one statistic stood out this week, it was this:
The Juice: 3-11-2
Doctor Psych: 9-5-2
Yes, the good doctor was a solid 9-5-2 against the line while our friend The Juice struggled with a lowly 3-11-2. Why is that you ask? Well in the coming weeks we will try to share with you Dr. Psych's method for picking games. The first lesson of picking against the spread: you don't have to beat Vegas, you have to beat your fellow gamblers. That means cleansing your mind of all of the misconceptions the common football fan uses to pick lines. Most fans depend way too much on first impressions from the Week before. This is especially bad early in the season when you have little else to work with. Once you achieve a Zen-like state of self actualization like Dr. P, you too will have the clarity to pick games.
Tuesday, September 21, 2010
Quick Hits
Some headline thoughts from The Juice:
-I already mentioned Braylon Edwards’ ridiculous behavior on the field in the Jets victory over the Pats in our Week 2 analysis post. It seems he wasn’t done being a selfish dick when the game was over, as he got pulled over Monday night/Tuesday morning and arrested for DUI. Apparently, he was stopped for over-tinted windows and blew a 0.16 on the breathalyzer. Best part: the Jets (and virtually all NFL franchises) provide free 24-hour transportation to all players to prevent exactly this kind of thing. Now he’s sitting in the county jail, sharing a bar of soap with Plaxico, and I can’t imagine he’ll be prepared to practice and play at 100% this week. Again, how can his teammates tolerate this kind of shit? He obviously doesn’t give a crap about team goals, which is why the Browns traded him in the middle of last season. He only signed a one-year deal (for just over $6 million), so, barring a statistically phenomenal 2010, I expect his market value will drop in 2011.
-The Saints victory over the 49ers may have been Pyrrhic. Reggie Bush fractured his fibula diving on a loose ball after having trouble fielding a punt. He’s out 4-6 weeks. Earlier this week, he returned his 2005 Heisman trophy in an effort to avoid further media coverage. This has been the roughest week for Bush since John Holmes switched from straight porn to gay. The Saints offense has been anemic through two games, and losing Bush won’t help. Their next five games are Atlanta, Carolina, @Arizona, @Tampa, and Cleveland. That’s a pretty cushy stretch, although there are three division games in there. If the Saints can go 3-2 or 4-1 in those five games, they’ll be in good shape for Bush’s prospective return for a tough Halloween night game against the Steelers (with a reinstated Big Ben, assuming he keeps his dong to himself for a couple more weeks).
-The Broncos are cursed. They’ve had a horrible string of injuries in the preseason, and now they’re in an emotional tailspin with the apparent suicide of 2nd-year WR Kenny McKinley. His body was found Monday with what police are calling a self-inflicted gunshot wound. Man, no jokes here, just some sad-ass news. Lots of people have written about the incredibly early age of death and high rate of drug addiction and suicide in professional wrestling. With Chris Henry’s possible suicide last year, Steve McNair’s murder, and the increasing reports of dementia in retired NFL players (likely associated with repeated head injury), are we seeing some parallels between professional wrestling and professional football? The analogy to Roman gladiators has never been more apt.
-Looks like we’re seeing our first knee-jerk QB benching reactions after some poor Week 2 performances. Jimmy Clausen will replace Matt Moore in Carolina, and Fitzpatrick will replace Trent Edwards in Buffalo. This shit always kills me. These are two teams with poor running games, poor defense, and a lack of veteran leadership, and they think throwing young, inexperienced QBs into the mix is going to help? That’s like me drinking 14 pints of Guiness, 3 shots of Jameson’s, 6 Jack and Cokes, and eating three racks of ribs, then figuring I’ll sober up with a cigar. The cigar won’t help, it’ll only make me puke faster. And waste an expensive cigar. Moore and Edwards stink, but they know they stink, and losing a bunch more games this season isn’t going to change anything for them. These young replacements still have some confidence left over from successful college careers. Throwing them to the wolves to rack up 2-14 records filled with interceptions will kill that. Build the O-line and defense through the draft and trades, set the kids up to have success, then give them the reins. Otherwise, you’re just wasting the draft pick you used to acquire them in the first place. But coaches won’t do that, since they figure they have to have someone to blame, or they just act with try-anything desperation, because their own asses are always on the hot seat. It’s a lose-lose situation. Thank goodness Cleveland doesn’t have any of these issues. Fuck.
Week 2 Analysis
Wow, Doc, did the Jets have their shit together in Week two, or what? This first two weeks has been such a rollercoaster. Just look how four teams who played each other in the first two weeks shook out:
Ravens beat Jets : Jets beat Patriots : Patriots freaking kill the Bengals : Bengals embarrass the Ravens
What the hell does that mean? I was all ready to jump on the Pats bandwagon for another undefeated regular season, and equally ready to write off the Bengals as my Brownies’ only competition for the AFC North basement, and now I don’t know what to think. Let’s break down the Week 2 results:
Chiefs 16-14 over Browns (-2)
TJ: The Chiefs are not the cream of the NFL crop, but I can no longer dismiss them at 2-0. They play in a weak division and they’ve run the ball well in the first two weeks. However, Cassel simply isn’t a franchise QB, and they needed a TD from their defense to beat my lowly Browns, so I’m still not convinced. Call me when they’re 6-2 at the break, and I might buy in.
DP: I was feeling great about picking the Chiefs as my sleeper until I saw Cassel’s number (16-28, 176, 0 TD-2 INT). Yikes. But they just need Cassel to steer the ship like Pennington did for Miami to years ago.
Here is the rest of the schedule: San Fran, @Indy, @Houston, Jax, Buff, @Oak, @Den, Arizona, @Seattle, Denver, @San Diego, @St Louis, Tenn, Oak. They will probably be big underdogs in only 3 or 4 of those games (@Indy, @Houston, @San Diego, and maybe Tenn). I still say 9-7 and winning the division is possible.
Packers (-13) 34-7 over Bills
TJ: OK, the Packers are good. Rogers is awesome and their D is the real deal. But let’s all calm down, it’s the God-forsaken Bills. Don’t hand the NFC North to the Pack just yet (in spite of the Vikes failing to flog the Dolphin and falling two games behind).
DP: So the ONLY position Buffalo had depth was RB with Lynch and Jackson. Then you draft CJ Spiller with your first round pick and give him one carry (as opposed to 26 total for Lynch and Jackson). Great strategy. I think Bills are my early candidate for #1 pick.
Cincinnati 15-10 over Baltimore (-2.5)
TJ: Another big WTF from me. Does Flacco actually suck? Does the Cincy defense NOT suck? OK, lots of analysts say that turnovers are mostly luck (see footballoutsiders.com, for instance), so I’m going to stick to my guns and say that Cincy isn’t the real deal, and the Ravens will play better as the season progresses and Flacco gels with his new receivers (like Houshmandzadeh).
DP: Carson Palmer is like 8-3 vs. Baltimore in recent years. Intra-division games are typically tight and low scoring. Why is anyone surprised?
Steelers 19-11 over Tennessee (-5)
TJ: Both teams played hard, but 7 (holy shit 7?) turnovers killed the Titans. I love the Steelers D, but as with the Bengals above, some of that is luck. Big Ben better have it together when he comes back, because their QB situation is no good (Charlie Batch is best known for sucking as a Lion’s starter). Speaking of QB’s, Jeff Fisher called Young the Titans’ starter in the postgame press conference, but that might have been different if Collins hadn’t thrown a pick and coughed up a fumble himself. The Tit’s better hope Chris Johnson lives up to the hype and takes some pressure of the passing game.
DP: The Steelers are down to their 4th QB (who had 25 yards passing). Their RB average 3.0 yards a carry and they still won. Its just amazing. I give up on trying to figure out Vince Young.
Eagles (-6.5) 35-32 over Lions
TJ: The late rally by the Lions is more evidence of their scrappiness, they just don’t have the talent yet. Philly’s D kind of shit the bed in the second half, but the offense is coming together under Vick, and I like them to make noise in the NFC East. 1-1 is nice, but 3-1 with a win over MacNabb and the ‘Skins at the Vet will be the sign that this could be a breakout year.
DP: I was totally wrong about this game, thought it would be low scoring. I like the Eagles plan to basically get as much speed as possible and just spread the ball around. Detroit has a spark for the first time in years. Maybe the Thanksgiving day game against New England won’t be so bad.
Chicago 27-20 over Dallas (-7.5)
TJ: I’m ready to say Dallas is a bunch of headcases now. Only Marion Barber continues to display desire (and competence). Dez Bryant’s punt return was a nice surprise for the ‘Boys, but everything else is a concern, especially with Philly looking strong and the Redskins looking fiesty. Chicago, on the other hand, has to feel really good about both sides of the ball, and the QB position in particular. Cutler may be an asshole, but he three TD’s will get you a lot of slack for your attitude.
DP: Dallas is put together like a Fantasy Roster, lots of talent, but no plan for how they all fit together. Jerry has totally undermined all of Wade Phillips power and then saddles him with all of the blame. I have no idea why they refuse to pay for a real kicker. They are 0-2 and headed to Houston this weekend. I am pretty sure Mario Williams will have priapism all week thinking about going against the Dallas O-line. Finally, no team handles adversity worse than Dallas (combination of an unrelenting local media and no one willing to take any accountability). Here are the remaining road games: @Houston, @Minn, @GB, @NY Giants, @Indy, @Arizona, and @Philly. They’ll be lucky to get to 8-8.
Tampa 20-7 over Carolina (-3.5)
TJ: I thought Tampa Bay sucked. I was wrong. I thought Carolina sucked. I was right. Let’s move on to games anyone gives a shit about.
DP: The oldest key member of the Bucs is 36 AND HE’S THE COACH. Unbelievably young, they may have a promising future.
Atlanta (-6.5) 41-7 over Arizona
TJ: I am holding the reins on the Dirty Birdy Bandwagon, and I love the ride. The good Doctor said last week that you bet your favorites early, and as usual, he was right. Turner will be back, but Snelling showed that it’s Atlanta’s offense as a whole that makes the RB look good. All that being said, I need to step back and remember that they did it against the horrendous Cardinals. As a Cleveland fan, I got a three-quarter chubby when I saw Anderson kill his new team with turnovers. Could Leinert have played much worse? Well . . . maybe.
DP: Good teams win big at home against bad teams. Does this mean Atlanta is good? No, but it means they might be.
Miami 14-10 over Vikings (-5.5)
TJ: The good Doctor and I are on record as loving Miami as a big sleeper this year, but unlike the Doc, I thought Minny would make another deep run. I’m not willing to count them out yet, but the Bears and Pack both sporting 2-0 records and Favre throwing balls that fly like chickens with Down’s Syndrome makes it hard to keep the faith. Love Miami’s defense, love their offensive flexibility, love Henne’s progress at QB. If the Pats and Jets stay schizophrenic, the ‘Phins could steal a playoff spot.
DP: I really wanted Minny to do well because I have a good friend who is a long-suffering fan. Unfortunately, there are a lot of red flags. The team basically grabbed their ankles for Favre while screwing over everyone else. No one has faith in the coach. Favre has lost his mobility and makes horrible decisions when pressured. After Detroit next week, it’s @Jets, Dallas, @Green Bay, @New England. 1-5 or 2-4 are entirely possible.
Jets 28-14 over Patriots (-3)
TJ: This was the game I was most excited to watch, and it definitely left me with a lot to think about. I thought there was a clear turning point in this game: Jets ball, 3rd and short, own territory, early in the 3rd quarter. Everyone expects the run, stuff, and subsequent punt. Sanchez executes a beautiful play-fake, the underneath route to the flat is open, but he finds the deep man for a big gain instead. Ballsy call, great execution. Next two plays are nice runs for first downs by LDT. Jets take over and never look back. Maybe Rex Ryan is a slobbering, walrus-looking, loud-mouthed asshat, but his team was prepared, and he outcoached the master, Billy B. I was impressed. Only blemish for the Jets was the continued selfish douche-baggery of Braylon Edwards. Next time he gets an unsportsmanlike for taunting, his teammates should hog-tie him and braid his beard into his pubic hair. The bright spot for the Pats was the play of rookie TE Hernandez, who broke a hundred yards on 6 receptions. He’s a big target, and he runs like a receiver after he catches the ball. I expect big things from him.
DP: All I can say is Mark Sanchez picked a hell of time to become an NFL QB.
Raiders (-3.5) 16-14 over Rams
TJ: Saying the Raiders were the better team in this game is like saying my grandma’s Depends smell better after tapioca than after stewed beets. I’d say Gradkowski was the future of the Raiders, but I don’t think they have a future.
DP: Bradford (14-25, 167, 2TD) is quietly treading water which is the best you cold hope for.
Denver (-3.5) 31-14 over Seattle
TJ: Can’t blame Pete Carrol for Hasselbecks’s three picks. But I CAN blame him for abandoning USC just when all his lies, cheating, and fake-ass Hollywood dicking around have ruined the program. Since I hate the Pac-10, I not only blame him, I thank him. Denver just doesn’t have the guns to be a real playoff threat (like Charlie Batch with the Lions, Orton is best known for sucking as a Bears’ starter). If KC and SD prove to be pretenders, maybe Denver can fill the void and get killed by a Wild Card team in round 1.
DP: Kyle Orten (25-35, 307, 2 TDs) gets the least recognition of any mediocre QB in the league. I fully expect him to start for the Raiders once the Broncos dump him for Tim Teabow.
Texans (-3) 30-27 over Redskins
TJ: Fun game to watch, but what a disappointing finish for the ‘Skins. They had a real shot to build something early in the year, and their offense produced, but they just couldn’t hold it down on D. I blame Haynesworth. Inactive with a sprained ankle. And a c#%^. Great comeback for the Texans. They will definitely make Indy sweat this season, and their offensive game has playoffs written all over it. They’ll have to be a little more consistent in the secondary as the year wears on to win me over, though, especially with Indy’s beatdown of the Giants.
DP: Texans finally have their shit together and are planning revenge on the league. Next victim: Dallas.
San Diego (-7) 38-13 over Jacksonville
TJ: Well, Jacksonville simply has nothing at all going for them. Jones-Drew can’t win games by himself, and that division just got a lot tougher with Houston’s 2-0 start. SD, on the other hand, has a weak division, and I’m still calling that Week 1 loss to the Chiefs a fluke of the weather and bad luck until the Chiefs prove otherwise (sneaking by the Browns 16-14 ain’t gonna do it). I like SD to win the division, but unless they get a ton out of trading Vincent Jackson (and maybe a new coach) they’re not going anywhere in the playoffs.
DP: This was my biggest blunder of the week. No idea why I thought Jax could go across the country and play well. The classic good-bad team. San Diego took care of business at home, but I still think there are concerns across the board. Two prominent hold-outs, an over-rated Defense, plus year three of Norv when the lack of discipline really starts to erode team play.
Indy (-5.5) 38-14 over NY Giants
TJ: Good thing nobody overreacted to that Week 1 loss at Houston (for instance, Bill Simmons’ “measured reaction” was anything but). Indy is still Indy. Everyone says they’re too small on defense and too one-dimensional on offence. Whatever, they’ll be deep in the playoffs again this season. The Giants, on the other hand, are mediocre at best. Their Week 1 win over Carolina doesn’t mean much when we consider how bad the Panthers are turning out to be. I say mark the Giants down for 8-8 and no playoffs. Think they miss Plaxico at all? I know he misses them!
DP: This was the win Indy needed to right the ship. Next 4 weeks are @Denver, @Jax, KC, @Washington. I’m pretty sure if they can get to 5-1 or 4-2 before their Bye Week they will be happy (plus 4 of the first six games are on the road, so they end 6 home and 4 road). As for the Giants, I think the NFC East will be tight all year. They are well coached and play hard throughout the year, I think they bounce back.
Saints (-5.5) 25-22 over 49ers
TJ: San Francisco showed great improvement on both sides of the ball after a terrible performance in Week 1 against the Seahawks. Apparently, they worked a lot during the week on getting plays called faster on offense, a necessary step, since some sources (Yahoo Sports) were reporting serious player dissatisfaction with offensive coordinator Jimmy Raye’s slow playcalling. The turnovers are still a big problem, but if San Fran plays every game like it did Monday night, they’ll contend in the weak NFC West. New Orleans is an ugly 2-0, with a lot to be desired in offensive numbers, but they’re the champs, and in spite of their opponents combined 0-4 records, I think the Saints have two quality wins and a great defense. They still look like the class of the NFC South.
DP: Style points don't matter when you're playing a good team on the road. New Orleans looked poised and Drew Brees and Sean Payton weathered the comeback of a desperate San Fran team. I have not seen San Fran play much, but I expected a much more disciplined team with Mike Singleterry as coach. Its hard to believe now that San Fran took Alex Smith over Aaron Rodgers six years ago (leading to Rodgers sliding to Green Bay and the whole Favre fiasco). The NFC West is probably the worst division I have ever seen; I have no idea who will win it now.
Friday, September 17, 2010
Balls-Hot Week Two Picks
At Cleveland | -2 | Kansas City |
TJ: Hard to bet against KC after a pretty convincing MNF performance in week 1. Especially with Cleveland starting Seneca Wallace at QB. KC Covers.
DP: I'm riding the KC bandwagon for at least another week.
At Green Bay | -13 | Buffalo |
TJ: This is a huge line for week 2, especially since Philly had a nice game against GB last week. Buffalo stinks, but I say GB has a little trouble and wins a close one. Buffalo is the pick.
DP: Nothing about Buffalo scares me, I'm pretty sure Green Bay agrees. GB covers easily.
Baltimore | -2.5 | At Cincinnati |
TJ: I can’t hit Baltimore hard enough in this game, but Ray Lewis can hit Carson Palmer just fine. Baltimore covers, and then some.
DP: I liked Cincy at -3, at -2.5 it would be a stay away for me if I was gambling. I'll pick Cincy here for giggles.
At Tennessee | -5 | Pittsburgh |
TJ: Tennessee looked great last week against Oakland, but Oakland ain’t Pittsburgh. And Pittsburgh handled a game Atlanta squad. I think this one goes down to the wire, and the Titans fail to cover the 5.
DP: Pittsburgh had weeks to prepare for Atlanta, but they have a few days for Tenn and Johnson and Young are tough to prepare for. I like Tenn to win but not cover.
Philadelphia | -6.5 | At Detroit |
TJ: Vick? Really? Ah, fuck it, I’m in. Philly covers.
DP: I was really, really impressed by Detroit's re-built D-Line. Suh is a future defensive player of the year. I think Suh collapses the pocket while the ends keep Vick from running. With Vick forced to pass, I like Detroit with the points.
At Dallas | -7.5 | Chicago |
TJ: It’s a must-win for Dallas. Chicago is supposed to put up some points with Cutler/Martz, and their D is supposed to be back up to speed and healthy, but they sure didn’t look it in Week 1. It’s a big line, but I think Dallas plays with desperation and covers.
DP: I loved Chicago at -9 and I guess the sharps agree. I still think Dallas is a mess. Cowboys win, but fail to cover in a wild game.
At Carolina | -3.5 | Tampa Bay |
TJ: This week’s pooper-bowl. I hate both these teams, and wish I could bet the over on number of crappy plays and dumb mistakes. Carolina’s the better team, and ought to cover at home.
DP: I think Carolina hangs around the fringe of the wild-card scene until late in the year. They start their run win an easy cover over the Bucs.
At Atlanta | -6.5 | Arizona |
TJ: Atlanta should kill these jokers. If not, I’m jumping off the Falcon’s bandwagon for good. They cover.
DP: My lock of the week. Early season you bet your favorites and I like the Birds.
At Minnesota | -5.5 | Miami |
TJ: The Doc and I have liked Miami as a sleeper for a while. However, like Dallas, Minnesota must win this week, or see their season spiral down the drain. I wish this line were lower, but I have to pick the Vikes to cover.
DP: Miami. No reason why, just a hunch.
At Oakland | -3.5 | St. Louis |
TJ: Oakland is a better team than the Week 1 score indicated. They get after Bradford and cover with ease.
DP: This game has stay away written all over it. Bradford looked pretty good in Week 1, but how do you take a rookie QB on the road. Oakland covers.
At Denver | -3.5 | Seattle |
TJ: Can Seattle be for real? I hope not, but Denver isn’t doing it for me. Give me the ‘Hawks and the points.
DP: Another stay away if I was wagering real money. Denver is tough at home and I think they bounce back to cover.
Houston | -3 | At Washington |
TJ: Let me get this straight: Washington beats Dallas in week one, then gets three in a home game against Houston? No way Foster runs on them the way he ran on that undersized Colts line. I’ll take the ‘Skins.
DP: Washington.
At San Diego | -7 | Jacksonville |
TJ: Another pair of teams I hate to back. The Jags are horrible, but seven points is a lot to get against a team that lost to KC in Week 1. Screw it, Norv is always good in the regular season, I’ll take the Chargers to cover.
DP: This game will tell us a lot about both of these teams. You play to win the game. Crap, I'm out of cliches and have nothing to write about this game. I'll take Jax.
New England | -3 | At NY Jets |
TJ: The game of the week, no doubt. The Jets need the win more, they’re at home, and they’re getting three. But Brady seems like he’s back, and Revis can only cover one guy at a time. NE covers.
DP: I've had the Jets as my most over rated team all pre-season. The Pats showed in week 1 they have plenty of guys to throw to and there is no way the Jets can score enough points to keep up. NE covers.
At Indianapolis | -5.5 | NY Giants |
TJ: Good sized line. But not good enough. I hate the Giants, and Indy covers.
DP: Don't bet against Manning in night games, especially when Eli is involved.
New Orleans | -5.5 | At San Francisco |
TJ: Holy cow, can SF really be as bad as they looked in Week 1? I don’t think so, but I also think the Saints are the shit, and won’t lose to weak teams. New Orleans covers.
DP: New Orleans is explosive, but San Fran can grind it out on the ground. NO will need turnovers to cover and I don't think the 49ers will risk Alex Smith losing the game for them. Saints win but don't cover.
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