Tuesday, September 21, 2010

Week 2 Analysis

Wow, Doc, did the Jets have their shit together in Week two, or what?  This first two weeks has been such a rollercoaster.  Just look how four teams who played each other in the first two weeks shook out:
Ravens beat Jets : Jets beat Patriots : Patriots freaking kill the Bengals : Bengals embarrass the Ravens
What the hell does that mean?  I was all ready to jump on the Pats bandwagon for another undefeated regular season, and equally ready to write off the Bengals as my Brownies’ only competition for the AFC North basement, and now I don’t know what to think.  Let’s break down the Week 2 results:
Chiefs 16-14 over Browns (-2)
TJ: The Chiefs are not the cream of the NFL crop, but I can no longer dismiss them at 2-0.  They play in a weak division and they’ve run the ball well in the first two weeks.  However, Cassel simply isn’t a franchise QB, and they needed a TD from their defense to beat my lowly Browns, so I’m still not convinced.  Call me when they’re 6-2 at the break, and I might buy in.
DP: I was feeling great about picking the Chiefs as my sleeper until I saw Cassel’s number (16-28, 176, 0 TD-2 INT). Yikes. But they just need Cassel to steer the ship like Pennington did for Miami to years ago.
Here is the rest of the schedule: San Fran, @Indy, @Houston, Jax, Buff, @Oak, @Den, Arizona, @Seattle, Denver, @San Diego, @St Louis, Tenn, Oak. They will probably be big underdogs in only 3 or 4 of those games (@Indy, @Houston, @San Diego, and maybe Tenn). I still say 9-7 and winning the division is possible.
Packers (-13) 34-7 over Bills
TJ: OK, the Packers are good.  Rogers is awesome and their D is the real deal.  But let’s all calm down, it’s the God-forsaken Bills.  Don’t hand the NFC North to the Pack just yet (in spite of the Vikes failing to flog the Dolphin and falling two games behind).
DP: So the ONLY position Buffalo had depth was RB with Lynch and Jackson. Then you draft CJ Spiller with your first round pick and give him one carry (as opposed to 26 total for Lynch and Jackson). Great strategy. I think Bills are my early candidate for #1 pick.
Cincinnati 15-10 over Baltimore (-2.5)
TJ: Another big WTF from me.  Does Flacco actually suck?  Does the Cincy defense NOT suck?  OK, lots of analysts say that turnovers are mostly luck (see footballoutsiders.com, for instance), so I’m going to stick to my guns and say that Cincy isn’t the real deal, and the Ravens will play better as the season progresses and Flacco gels with his new receivers (like Houshmandzadeh).
DP: Carson Palmer is like 8-3 vs. Baltimore in recent years. Intra-division games are typically tight and low scoring. Why is anyone surprised?
Steelers 19-11 over Tennessee (-5)
TJ: Both teams played hard, but 7 (holy shit 7?) turnovers killed the Titans.  I love the Steelers D, but as with the Bengals above, some of that is luck.  Big Ben better have it together when he comes back, because their QB situation is no good (Charlie Batch is best known for sucking as a Lion’s starter).  Speaking of QB’s, Jeff Fisher called Young the Titans’ starter in the postgame press conference, but that might have been different if Collins hadn’t thrown a pick and coughed up a fumble himself.  The Tit’s better hope Chris Johnson lives up to the hype and takes some pressure of the passing game.
DP: The Steelers are down to their 4th QB (who had 25 yards passing). Their RB average 3.0 yards a carry and they still won. Its just amazing. I give up on trying to figure out Vince Young.
Eagles (-6.5) 35-32 over Lions
TJ: The late rally by the Lions is more evidence of their scrappiness, they just don’t have the talent yet.  Philly’s D kind of shit the bed in the second half, but the offense is coming together under Vick, and I like them to make noise in the NFC East.  1-1 is nice, but 3-1 with a win over MacNabb and the ‘Skins at the Vet will be the sign that this could be a breakout year.
DP: I was totally wrong about this game, thought it would be low scoring. I like the Eagles plan to basically get as much speed as possible and just spread the ball around. Detroit has a spark for the first time in years. Maybe the Thanksgiving day game against New England won’t be so bad.
Chicago  27-20 over Dallas (-7.5)
TJ: I’m ready to say Dallas is a bunch of headcases now.  Only Marion Barber continues to display desire (and competence).  Dez Bryant’s punt return was a nice surprise for the ‘Boys, but everything else is a concern, especially with Philly looking strong and the Redskins looking fiesty.  Chicago, on the other hand, has to feel really good about both sides of the ball, and the QB position in particular.  Cutler may be an asshole, but he three TD’s will get you a lot of slack for your attitude.
DP: Dallas is put together like a Fantasy Roster, lots of talent, but no plan for how they all fit together. Jerry has totally undermined all of Wade Phillips power and then saddles him with all of the blame. I have no idea why they refuse to pay for a real kicker. They are 0-2 and headed to Houston this weekend. I am pretty sure Mario Williams will have priapism all week thinking about going against the Dallas O-line. Finally, no team handles adversity worse than Dallas (combination of an unrelenting local media and no one willing to take any accountability). Here are the remaining road games: @Houston, @Minn, @GB, @NY Giants, @Indy, @Arizona, and @Philly. They’ll be lucky to get to 8-8.
Tampa 20-7 over Carolina (-3.5)
TJ: I thought Tampa Bay sucked.  I was wrong.  I thought Carolina sucked.  I was right.  Let’s move on to games anyone gives a shit about.
DP: The oldest key member of the Bucs is 36 AND HE’S THE COACH. Unbelievably young, they may have a promising future.
Atlanta (-6.5) 41-7 over Arizona
TJ: I am holding the reins on the Dirty Birdy Bandwagon, and I love the ride.  The good Doctor said last week that you bet your favorites early, and as usual, he was right.  Turner will be back, but Snelling showed that it’s Atlanta’s offense as a whole that makes the RB look good.  All that being said, I need to step back and remember that they did it against the horrendous Cardinals.  As a Cleveland fan, I got a three-quarter chubby when I saw Anderson kill his new team with turnovers.  Could Leinert have played much worse?  Well . . . maybe.
DP: Good teams win big at home against bad teams. Does this mean Atlanta is good? No, but it means they might be.
Miami 14-10 over Vikings (-5.5)
TJ:  The good Doctor and I are on record as loving Miami as a big sleeper this year, but unlike the Doc, I thought Minny would make another deep run.  I’m not willing to count them out yet, but the Bears and Pack both sporting 2-0 records and Favre throwing balls that fly like chickens with Down’s Syndrome makes it hard to keep the faith.  Love Miami’s defense, love their offensive flexibility, love Henne’s progress at QB.  If the Pats and Jets stay schizophrenic, the ‘Phins could steal a playoff spot.
DP: I really wanted Minny to do well because I have a good friend who is a long-suffering fan. Unfortunately, there are a lot of red flags. The team basically grabbed their ankles for Favre while screwing over everyone else. No one has faith in the coach. Favre has lost his mobility and makes horrible decisions when pressured. After Detroit next week, it’s @Jets, Dallas, @Green Bay, @New England. 1-5 or 2-4 are entirely possible.
Jets 28-14 over Patriots (-3)
TJ: This was the game I was most excited to watch, and it definitely left me with a lot to think about.  I thought there was a clear turning point in this game: Jets ball, 3rd and short, own territory, early in the 3rd quarter.  Everyone expects the run, stuff, and subsequent punt.  Sanchez executes a beautiful play-fake, the underneath route to the flat is open, but he finds the deep man for a big gain instead.  Ballsy call, great execution.  Next two plays are nice runs for first downs by LDT.  Jets take over and never look back.  Maybe Rex Ryan is a slobbering, walrus-looking, loud-mouthed asshat, but his team was prepared, and he outcoached the master, Billy B.  I was impressed.  Only blemish for the Jets was the continued selfish douche-baggery of Braylon Edwards.  Next time he gets an unsportsmanlike for taunting, his teammates should hog-tie him and braid his beard into his pubic hair.  The bright spot for the Pats was the play of rookie TE Hernandez, who broke a hundred yards on 6 receptions.  He’s a big target, and he runs like a receiver after he catches the ball.  I expect big things from him.
DP: All I can say is Mark Sanchez picked a hell of time to become an NFL QB.
Raiders (-3.5) 16-14 over Rams
TJ: Saying the Raiders were the better team in this game is like saying my grandma’s Depends smell better after tapioca than after stewed beets.  I’d say Gradkowski was the future of the Raiders, but I don’t think they have a future.
DP: Bradford (14-25, 167, 2TD) is quietly treading water which is the best you cold hope for.
Denver (-3.5) 31-14 over Seattle
TJ: Can’t blame Pete Carrol for Hasselbecks’s three picks.  But I CAN blame him for abandoning USC just when all his lies, cheating, and fake-ass Hollywood dicking around have ruined the program.  Since I hate the Pac-10, I not only blame him, I thank him.  Denver just doesn’t have the guns to be a real playoff threat (like Charlie Batch with the Lions, Orton is best known for sucking as a Bears’ starter).  If KC and SD prove to be pretenders, maybe Denver can fill the void and get killed by a Wild Card team in round 1.
DP: Kyle Orten (25-35, 307, 2 TDs) gets the least recognition of any mediocre QB in the league. I fully expect him to start for the Raiders once the Broncos dump him for Tim Teabow.
Texans (-3) 30-27 over Redskins
TJ: Fun game to watch, but what a disappointing finish for the ‘Skins.  They had a real shot to build something early in the year, and their offense produced, but they just couldn’t hold it down on D.  I blame Haynesworth.  Inactive with a sprained ankle.  And a c#%^.  Great comeback for the Texans.  They will definitely make Indy sweat this season, and their offensive game has playoffs written all over it.  They’ll have to be a little more consistent in the secondary as the year wears on to win me over, though, especially with Indy’s beatdown of the Giants.
DP: Texans finally have their shit together and are planning revenge on the league. Next victim: Dallas.
San Diego (-7) 38-13 over Jacksonville
TJ: Well, Jacksonville simply has nothing at all going for them.  Jones-Drew can’t win games by himself, and that division just got a lot tougher with Houston’s 2-0 start.  SD, on the other hand, has a weak division, and I’m still calling that Week 1 loss to the Chiefs a fluke of the weather and bad luck until the Chiefs prove otherwise (sneaking by the Browns 16-14 ain’t gonna do it).  I like SD to win the division, but unless they get a ton out of trading Vincent Jackson (and maybe a new coach) they’re not going anywhere in the playoffs.
DP: This was my biggest blunder of the week. No idea why I thought Jax could go across the country and play well. The classic good-bad team. San Diego took care of business at home, but I still think there are concerns across the board. Two prominent hold-outs, an over-rated Defense, plus year three of Norv when the lack of discipline really starts to erode team play.
Indy (-5.5) 38-14 over NY Giants
TJ: Good thing nobody overreacted to that Week 1 loss at Houston (for instance, Bill Simmons’ “measured reaction” was anything but).  Indy is still Indy.  Everyone says they’re too small on defense and too one-dimensional on offence.  Whatever, they’ll be deep in the playoffs again this season.  The Giants, on the other hand, are mediocre at best.  Their Week 1 win over Carolina doesn’t mean much when we consider how bad the Panthers are turning out to be.  I say mark the Giants down for 8-8 and no playoffs.  Think they miss Plaxico at all?  I know he misses them!
DP: This was the win Indy needed to right the ship. Next 4 weeks are @Denver, @Jax, KC, @Washington. I’m pretty sure if they can get to 5-1 or 4-2 before their Bye Week they will be happy (plus 4 of the first six games are on the road, so they end 6 home and 4 road). As for the Giants, I think the NFC East will be tight all year. They are well coached and play hard throughout the year, I think they bounce back.
Saints (-5.5) 25-22 over 49ers
TJ: San Francisco showed great improvement on both sides of the ball after a terrible performance in Week 1 against the Seahawks.  Apparently, they worked a lot during the week on getting plays called faster on offense, a necessary step, since some sources (Yahoo Sports) were reporting serious player dissatisfaction with offensive coordinator Jimmy Raye’s slow playcalling.  The turnovers are still a big problem, but if San Fran plays every game like it did Monday night, they’ll contend in the weak NFC West.  New Orleans is an ugly 2-0, with a lot to be desired in offensive numbers, but they’re the champs, and in spite of their opponents combined 0-4 records, I think the Saints have two quality wins and a great defense.  They still look like the class of the NFC South.

DP: Style points don't matter when you're playing a good team on the road. New Orleans looked poised and Drew Brees and Sean Payton weathered the comeback of a desperate San Fran team. I have not seen San Fran play much, but I expected a much more disciplined team with Mike Singleterry as coach. Its hard to believe now that San Fran took Alex Smith over Aaron Rodgers six years ago (leading to Rodgers sliding to Green Bay and the whole Favre fiasco). The NFC West is probably the worst division I have ever seen; I have no idea who will win it now. 

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