5 Questions for Week 3:

This time, The Juice is asking the questions, and the good Doctor is doling out a prescription of petrifyingly proper prognostication.
First off, I just wanted to say that last week’s questions turned out to be very pertinent, and my answers pretty much knocked them out of the park. Doc, you may have killed me on the picks, but now you’ve got a lot to live up to trying to handle these five stumpers. Get your pencil ready, aaannnnddd . . . . . BEGIN!

1. After only two weeks, we have little data to go on, but the point differentials for each division against teams from all other divisions look like this: NFC North +42, South +26, East -38, and West -56; AFC North -4, South +26, East -7, and West +14. Does this tell us anything? Which division is the strongest overall in each conference? The intra-conference and inter-confernce pairings are always interesting to me. For intra-conference in the AFC we have East-North and South-West. There are 3 good teams in the East and North so they may beat each other up a bit. Advantage AFC where Houston, Indy, and Tenn will pad their records on the awful West. In the NFC East plays North and West plays South. Huge advantage to Atlanta and New Orleans. For inter-conference AFC East plays NFC North (another tough draw for the East), the AFC North plays the NFC South (again an advantage to Atlanta and New Orleans), the AFC South plays the NFC East (the East may be down a little this year, so not a terrible draw for Colts, Texans, and Titans) and the AFC West plays the NFC West (the only hope the NFC West has for a .500 team making the play-offs. My initial impression is that Atlanta or New Orleans will have home field advantage throughout and the other will have the top wild-card. In the AFC, the South will probably get at least one wild-card leaving three spots for New England, Miami, NY Jets, Cincy, Pitt, and Baltimore to fight over.

2. Two 0-2 teams had real preseason aspirations for a championship: the Cowboys and the Vikings. They play the Texans and the Lions, respectively, in Week 3. Which team is more desperate for a win? Are title hopes still alive for either squad? I live in Dallas where the desperation is palpable. A loss here could very well trigger the following events: Wade Phillips (aka Grandpa) is fired, Jerry Jones trades for Marcus McNeil, and the Psychiatry Emergency Room is filled with suicidal Cowboy fans Monday morning who can’t bear to face the taunting from Houston fans at work. The Vikings have pretty much hitched their pony to Favre.

3. Conversely, the Chiefs and Buccaneers, two teams with basement expectations in the preseason, are 2-0, and they play the 49ers and Steelers in Week 3. Which team has a better chance for a Week 3 win? Can either team make noise in the playoffs? The Bucs are a nice story, but lets not get carried away. They beat the Browns (or rather Delhomme beat himself) and the lowly Panthers. They would have to pass Atlanta and New Orleans and I don’t see that happening. The Chiefs still have a legit shot at winning the West. San Fran is ripe this week coming to Arrowhead on short rest. The Chargers may have more talent, but the players are united against the GM. Can the make noise in the playoffs? Well if they win the West, it means they would host one of the following: Indy, Houston, Tenn, New England, Miami, NY Jets, Cincy, Pitt, or Baltimore. Unlikely but not impossible.

4. Through 2 weeks, Jay Cutler leads the league with a QB rating of 121.2, with Michael Vick (105.5) and Kyle Orton (103.9) in the top 5. The bottom 5 includes Bret Favre (56.1), Matt Cassel (55.8), and in dead last, Joe Flacco (41.2). Do these numbers reflect reality for these players, or will we see things flip as the season progresses? No, I think we will see regression to the mean. But I still expect a nice season from Cutler. Flacco had two tough match-ups @NY Jets and @Cincy, he should bounce back. Favre may be done though.

5. The last few seasons have seen free agency in the NBA become dominated by the players’ desire to play in certain cities or with certain teammates. Obviously, the high-profile example is the Miami Heat situation, but it’s also been true of L.A., NYC, and Chicago, and has hurt teams like Milwaukee, Indiana, and (of course) Cleveland. Could this trend spread to the NFL? Is it possible that a large group of talented free agents could choose to sign with a single team for reduced money, and set up an NFL version of the Heat? In the future, will teams like the Packers and Vikings find it hard to compete for marquee talent with the likes of Miami and San Diego? Historically, the average length of an NFL career is much shorter (around 4 years) and the risk of career ending injury is much higher, so fewer players want to risk making it all the way to free agency. That plus a hard cap and Franchise tag has limited player movement (in fact you could argue in 20 years, the only two difference makers acquired through free agency were Reggie White and Drew Brees). That being said, I do think cash rich teams like the Cowboys and Redskins may try to free up the system in the future for more player movement in the next collective bargaining agreement. I think most fans and players hate the Franchise Tag, I could see that being eliminated by the owners as a concession in the bargaining.