Week 3 picks

@NY Giants -3 vs Titans

TJ: The Giants simply couldn’t handle Indy last week, but the Titans don’t have Peyton Manning running their offense. In fact, they’re a bit iffy on which QB actually should be calling the shots, and to be honest, I’m not sure if either choice is that great. I love Vince Young’s leadership, effort, and toughness, but I’m not sure his decision-making can get the job done. Collins is 63 years old, and he was no athlete when he was in his prime. Either way, New York (despite their fiasco at RB and a sub-standard defensive line compared to the usual Giants squads) should take care of business at home. I like the Giants to cover.

DP: This is the only game where I really have no clue who will win. None what so ever. Both looked pretty good Week 1 and then they both looked God Awful Week 2. I guess when in doubt take the points, but I would never ever bet on this game in real life. Pick: Titans.

@New England -14 vs Buffalo

TJ: The Jets gave New England all they could handle, and may have shaken the Patriots confidence a bit. Not enough to lose to Buffalo, though. This is a huge line, but the Bills are starting Fitzpatrick at QB for the first time this season, and their defense looks about as limp as grandpa’s dick when the prescription runs out. New England’s week 1 win over Cincy looked impressive at the time, but they needed two defensive TD’s to do it, and gave up 428 yards to a Bengals offense no one is raving about. I think the Bills can keep it under 14 this week.

DP: This is an easy one. People look at the Bills and say they got blown out by the Packers and are starting a new QB. Then they look at the Patriots who will be fired up at home after a tough loss to the Jets. But take a closer look. Intra-division games are usually lower scoring because both teams are familiar with each other (Advantage Bills). The Pats will likely run vanilla offense because their next four games are @Miami, Balt, @San Diego, and Minn. Those are important games and they don’t want to give anything away. The Bills coaches know that letting the new QB Fitzpatrick throw down the field will lead to a blow out and crush team confidence. I think they grind it out running plays, eat clock, and punt often to back up the Pats. The Pats win comfortably but have no incentive to run it up on the Bills. Pick: Bills.

@Ravens -10.5 vs Browns

TJ: What’s going on in Cleveland? They have two very close losses to two undefeated teams. Sounds good on paper, until you realize those teams are the Chiefs and the Bucs. Looks like Delhomme is out again this week, which would normally make Browns fans happier than Romeo Crennel with a 50%-Off Sizzler coupon, but backup Seneca Wallace is seven kinds of awful. The Ravens have semi-issues at QB, with Flacco throwing way too many picks, and the Browns D is only giving up 16 points a game (13 if you don’t count the pick return for a TD by the Chiefs’ Brandon Flowers). I don’t think the Browns have much of a shot at winning this game, but a low-scoring affair doesn’t seem out of the question. I’ll take Cleveland and the points.

DP: This I think is also another easy one. The Ravens do have an incentive to run up the score. This is the home opener and they need to get their QB Flacco some confidence. The Browns will have a hard time scoring enough points against a stout Ravens D to keep up unless Joshua Cribbs runs back a couple of scores. Lock of the Week. Pick: Ravens

Pittsburgh -2.5 @Tampa

TJ: Time for the real Bucs to show up. The Steelers cover easily in a romp.

DP: Its funny because before the season this is the one game everyone pointed to in Pitt’s schedule and said “They will win this one. If they can get one more, then they will be 2-2 when Ben R. comes back.” Now they have a shot at 4-0. The Pitt defense is tough and they know they have to play great with all of the QB problems. They just need to win by a FG to cover and I think they do. Pick: Pitt.

Cincinnati -3 @Carolina

TJ: I’ve disliked the Panthers from day one this season, and Cincinnati really surprised me by beating a tough Ravens squad last week. The Bengals offense looked rough against the Ravens, though, and I’m not sure the TO/Ochocinco duo is ready for a breakout performance yet. On the flip side, Carolina is starting a rookie QB in his first game, so I’ll take Cincy to cover the 3 points.

DP: Another home dog. Carolina has looked terrible, is starting a rookie, and Cincy has a tough D. Pick: Cincy.

@Saints -3.5 vs Falcons

TJ: The Falcons looked rejuvenated last week against the lowly Cards, while the Saints have barely scraped by in two close games. Michael Turner should be back for this game, and Falcons’ backup RB Snelling made it look easy against the porous Cardinal defense last week, so I think the game will come down to the Dirty Bird defense. I have to think the Saints offense will open up at some point, but losing Reggie Bush to a broken fibula makes it seem less likely that this is the week. The Saints are mentally tough, so I think they win this game by a field goal, which means I’m taking Atlanta with the points.

DP: Vegas is absolutely begging you to take the Saints at only -3.5 at home. Vegas usually knows what they are doing. Pick: Dirty Birds.

49ers -3 @Chiefs

TJ: Are the 49ers decent or not? They played the Saints down to the wire last week, and Frank Gore seems to be heating up, but man, Alex Smith throws touchdowns about as frequently as Antonio Cromartie turns down unprotected sex. No matter what, though, I simply can’t see the Chiefs going 3-0 with Matt Cassel and a bunch of scrubs. I’ll lay the 3 points, gimme San Fran.

DP: This is the first time in history a team that didn’t make the play-offs is getting 3 on the road? I think these teams have similar philosophies: run the ball, play tough D, don’t turn the ball over. Plus you have to figure in San Fran has to travel on a short week, Arrowhead will absolutely be crazy, and KC knows this is a must win game before playing @Houston and @Indy. I don’t see anyway the 49ers pull away and win by more than FG. Pick: Chiefs

@Minnesota -11.5 vs Lions

TJ: 11.5 is a big line for an 0-2 team. Detroit doesn’t suck as much as I expected, but a road win in Minnesota seems beyond them. I think the Lions keep it close, but break their fans’ hearts in the end. Lions lose, but by less than 11.

DP: Again this is easy. Intra-division foe so the Lions are familiar with both Favre and the Vikings. The Lions have played hard and Calvin Johnson was absolutely built to put up garbage time TDs. No way the Vikes cover. This is the upset of the week. Pick: Lions

@Texans -3 vs Cowboys

TJ: I don’t mean to hate on the Cowboys, but doesn’t everyone want to see the Texans win this one just to watch Jerry Jones’s botox-filled face explode? Houston’s D manhandled the Indy offense in week 1, and is giving up only 2.3 yards per rush attempt on the season. I think that puts the game in Tony Romo’s hands, and I don’t trust that dude. Texans cover at home, and Wade Phillips gets to start spending a lot more time with his great-grandchildren.

DP: I will actually break down the game for you. The Cowboys shaky O-line is actually playing better, but is much better at pass protecting that run blocking. The game is in a Dome. The Houston D has given up more than 800 yards passing in the first two weeks. Tony Romo says the Cowboys need to run the ball more (liar). On the Houston side, the Dallas safeties are terrible and the biggest problem on the D now. Houston has 4 legit receivers (Johnson, Walter, Jones, Daniels). Everything points to high scoring game. With a high scoring game and a line of 3, just pick the team you think wins. Pick: Houston.

Washington -3.5 @Rams

TJ: Road game against a shitty team: here’s where we find out if the ‘Skins can make a run at the playoffs or not. I say yes, and I’ll take Washington to cover.
DP: Another home dog. I think the Redskins will collapse this year. But not yet. Pick: Skins.

Eagles -3.5 @Jacksonville

TJ: Did anyone else notice that the Eagles gave up 444 yards to the Lions last week? This one may come down to the QB, just not the one you’re thinking of. I mean David Garrard, and I’m wondering which version we’ll see against the Eagles: the one who beat Denver (QB rating 138.5), or the one who blew it against San Diego (rating 62.7). I don’t see Vick blowing this and embarrassing Reid (who’s taking a pretty big risk handing him the team this early), but I don’t necessarily think he’ll blow the doors off, either. This is a tough game, but I’ll take the Jags and the points.
DP: Jax looked terrible last week, but that was on the road at San Diego. The Eagles offense looked great, but not the D. Philly has a division foe next week which means they could be looking ahead a bit. I’ve already decided that Jax is a good bad team which means they are tough at home. I’ll take the points and make Vick prove he can do it 2 weeks in a row. Pick: Jax

Indy -5.5 @Denver

TJ: Well, Doc, how do you feel about your Colts after that big win over little bro and the Giants? I think they’re getting on track, but laying five and a half on the road at Mile High seems steep. The Broncos are dealing with some serious stuff this week with the death of Kenny McKinley (see Quick Hits below), and they could respond by being understandably distracted and unfocused, or by playing with unmatched intensity in dedication to their missing teammate. I’m not sure, but I think Denver responds by pulling together and gives the Colts all they can handle. I’ll take the Broncos.

DP: The Colts were built to build up a quick lead then unleash a speedy pass rush against teams that need to throw to catch up. When they don’t build an early lead, they usually struggle and rely on Manning to come up clutch. Several factors make me think they will not build an early lead. On the road, in altitude, on grass. All of that slows the Colts. Josh McDaniel knows how to play the Colts. You either have to ram the ball down their throat (like Houston in Week 1) or move the changes with long slow drives by making short, quick, accurate passes (like Drew Brees in the Superbowl). I think they can do a little of both with Moreno and Orton (the poor man’s Brees). Colts win but don’t cover. Picks: Broncos.

Chargers -5.5 @Seattle

TJ: I refuse to put any stock at all in Seattle’s Week 1 win now. I think they got lucky and caught San Fran with their pants down. Denver trounced the Seahawks last week, and I think the Chargers will do the same. SD covers.

DP: Don’t over react to Week 2. These teams are more evenly matched than you think. I’ll take the home team and the points. Pick: Hawks.

@Arizona -4.5 vs Raiders

TJ: I think the Raiders have made some improvements, but this is a division game on the road. The QB position is interesting: we know Derek Anderson is atrocious, but we don’t really know Bruce Gradkowski yet. He’s far from a rookie (he’s in his 5th year), and he had an 80.6 QB rating in seven games with Oakland last year, not bad, considering his lack of targets. The Raiders’ running game has made some strides (McFadden’s averaging 120 yards per game on 5.0 yards per rush), and the Arizona run defense was non-existent last week. I hate betting the Raiders on the road, but I can’t back the Cards. Oakland is the bet.

DP: Arizona is finally at home and has to feel good they are 1-1 after two road games. Derek Anderson is better at Man-to-Man than Zone coverage. The Raiders just feel like a “win one-lose one” kind of team. Pick: Cards.

@Miami -2 vs Jets

TJ: I’m really looking forward to this game. The Doc and I have liked Miami since the preseason (see our Preaseason Thoughts and Theories post), and the Jets may have shot their wad last week against the Pats. Braylon Edwards isn’t starting, and if Ryan has any integrity at all, he’ll bench him for the whole game, even though it might hurt the offense. Also, Revis is out this week with a hamstring injury, and Miami would love to take advantage by opening up their (to this point) conservative passing game. Chad Henne hasn’t thrown an INT yet, and Ronnie Brown is averaging 5.6 yards per carry, a testament to their grind-it-out style. Plus, Miami is 2-0 on the road, and this is their home opener, while the Jets are 1-1 and have yet to travel. I’m probably retarded, but I just talked myself into Miami. I’ll lay the points, go Phins!
DP: The spread is close enough to just pick the winner and hope they cover. I’ve liked Miami as a sleeper all pre-season. I also thought the Jets were over rated all pre-season. Pick: Miami.

Packers -3 @Bears

TJ: Cutler’s stock is soaring, and the Bears’ defense is showing signs of life, but 1-11 on 3rd down and 2 yards per rush against Dallas isn’t so great. Green Bay is scoring 30 points per game and giving up only 14, and both teams are 2-0 with a road win under their belts. How do we differentiate between these squads? Vegas seems to think GB is the better team, since they’re laying points on the road, but there are some problems. With Ryan Grant out for the year, GB will rely on Brandon Jackson to tote the rock, but he only had 29 yards at home against the Bills (and the Bills rush defense is about as successful as Joaquin Phoenix’s rap career). The Bears’ D is #1 in the league against the run, which means the game is in Aaron Rodgers’ hands. He’s a capable, maybe a great, QB, but on the road in the division laying 3 points? I’ll take the Bears.

DP: I think people might be getting a little carried away with the Packers. They have a nice offense, but their passing D is still questionable. I’ll take the home team and the points. Pick: Bears.