Week 4 Picks

@Tenn -6.5 Denver
DP: Tenn still confounds me. Big win last week, but they actually didn’t play that well. Vince Young can be rattled, but I don’t think the Broncos have the talent on defense to do it. Pick: Titans.

TJ: I can’t imagine the Titans losing at home to this Denver team, but this line is pretty high, and Kyle Orton hasn’t sucked nearly as much as I expected. Even so, I think Tennessee gets out to an early lead, Chris Johnson picks up 150 yards, and they slow the game way down and beat Denver 20-10.


@Pitt -1.5 Baltimore
DP: Baltimore needs it more and has the top defense against the pass which will make the Steelers one dimensional. Should be a tight, low scoring game. Pick: Ravens.

TJ: This line seems too low to me, even with Charlie Batch facing that stiff Ravens D. If Cincy could beat the Ravens, and the Browns could stay within a touchdown, I think Pittsburgh may win this big. They seem to be rallying around the “Nobody thought we could win without Ben” flag, and any time a team rallies together during adversity, that’s a good thing (see #1 from this weeks 5 Questions). Plus, there’s the fact that Joe Flacco’s looking about as tough as Lamar from Revenge of the Nerds these days. Pitt is the pick.

Cincinnati -3 @Cleveland
DP: Carson Palmer looks terrible and Cleveland is still playing hard. Division games are like 10 years of marriage: both sides know each other so well there are few surprises and there is usually little scoring. I don’t think Cincy has the talent to pull away. Pick: Brownies.

TJ: Cincy’s not that good, and damnit, the Browns are due! Cleveland wins outright at home.

@GB -14.5 Detroit
DP: The first of two big home favorites. The two pertinent questions for a big cover are: will the underdog turn the ball over enough to give the favorite more chances to score? Detroit is -1 while Green Bay is 0 so that is even. Second question is does the home team have incentive not to run up the score. I think Green Bay will be unwilling to run it by three scores against a division opponent. Pick: Lions.

TJ: Detroit is scrappy, and this is a huge line, but the Packers got robbed against the Bears last week, and I see them taking it out on the hapless Lions. Rodgers builds an early lead with a couple of bombs to Jennings and Driver, then Jackson and Kuhn rack up first down all afternoon to eat up the clock. I’ll lay the points and take the Pack.

@NO -13.5 Carolina
DP: Same logic, but different teams. NO is +3, Carolina is -6 for turnovers. Does NO have incentive? I say yes. The Saints have yet to cover this year and are looking to bounce back after a tough loss to Atlanta. I say they are willing to keep passing to stay up by 2 TDs. Pick: Saints.

TJ: Again, a huge line, and I’ve hated Carolina all year. But what’s up with the Saints? We know San Fran isn’t very good, and the Saints just snuck by them in Week 2. Atlanta’s a good team, and that overtime loss isn’t so bad, but it was at home. They don’t have Reggie Bush, who really demanded attention from the defense. It comes down to this, though: Carolina is awful, they’re starting an inexperienced QB on the road in a hostile environment, and the Saints know they can’t give away divisional games. Hate to do it, but I’m laying the points here, too, and taking N’awlins.

@Atlanta -7 San Fran
DP: Everything points to the Falcons. Big win against the Saints last week. They absolutely clobbered the 49ers last year. San Fran is traveling East for the second straight week. The turnover margin heavily favors Atlanta (+4 vs. -5). So why are they only -7 at home? I think this is a let down game for Atlanta. San Fran is still playing hard and know they can still win the NFC West and would love to get revenge against the Falcons. It will be difficult to game plan for a new offensive coordinator. This is my upset of the week. Pick: Niners.

TJ: At home? Against San Fran? And only giving a TD? Atlanta looks like a lock here to me. I don’t care if the Niners are desperate, they don’t have the talent to stay with the Birds. Atlanta is the pick.

Seattle -1 @St Louis
DP: My late game picks are terrible, in part because I can’t stand to watch the putrid West Coast teams. I thought St. Louis looked better in beating Washington than Seattle did in beating the Chargers (they got 2 kick-off returns and still barely held on). I’ll take the home team getting points against a West Coast squad traveling east. Pick: Rams.

TJ: Hey, the Rams have two losses by a total of 6 points, and they punched the Redskins in their collective taint last week in the dome. Bradford doesn’t suck (though his line and receivers do), and Seattle is unlikely to win a road game all year. Somebody better smack me, because I think I’m taking the Rams here!

NYJ -5.5 @Buff
DP: Jets.

TJ: The Jets have a good offense, they proved they can play on the road against Miami last week, and their coach seems to have shut the fuck up for the last few days. I like it. Meanwhile, Buffalo wasn’t embarrassed by the Pats last week, their “Hah-vahd” QB, Fitzpatrick, played a decent game (92.4 rating), and they’re at home, where they held Miami to 15 points in week 1. I’m not sold, though, and I’m going to say Rex throws a lot of blitzes at Fitzpatrick and forces a couple bad decisions, and Sanchez continues to manage the game well, allowing the Jets to cover the spread with ease.

Indy -7 @Jacksonville
DP: This has traditionally been a tough game for Indy (I know, I’ve watched it many times) as Jax usually gets up for the divisional bully. But it turns out Jax may just be really bad this year. Indy travels well and Jags don’t have a good enough running game to exploit the Colts weak line play. Pick: Colts.

TJ: The Eagles proved that you can go into Jacksonville and smoke the Jaguars, and the Colts will serve up a second helping this week. Peyton and the offense were firing on all cylinders against the Giants, and barely let off the gas pedal against Denver last week. Their defense may be pretty terrible against the run (29th in the league), but they’ve still held opponents to 17 points per game. Oh yeah, and Austin Collie is on pace for 2000 yards receiving and 21 TDs. The Jags won’t be the ones to knock him off that track. Gimme the Colts.

Houston -3 @Oakland
DP: A good team would travel across the country and beat a bad team. Oakland has just enough of a pass game to keep up with the Texans. Pick: Raiders.

TJ: Houston looks like the obvious pick here, but their big win against the Colts came at home, they barely squeaked by Washington in OT, and the Cowboys came to their house and dominated. I’m no Raider fan, but are they really that much worse than the ‘Boys and the ‘Skins? Oakland lost badly on the road to a very good Titans team, beat the Rams, and lost in Arizona by a point (OK, that’s still a bad loss). All I’m saying is, I don’t think Houston totally outclasses Oakland, and getting three points at home sounds pretty sweet to me. I’ll take the Raiders.

@SD -8.5 Arizona
DP: Arizona is terrible and turn over prone and San Diego has a great offense. Lock of the week. Pick: Chargers.

TJ: Yeah, Anderson is gonna win on the road. Right. He’s going to throw 9 fucking picks in this game, and Coach Kenny is going to have to sit there and suck on it, because his backup is Max Hall. Remember how great Max Hall was at BYU? Yeah, neither does anyone else. The Chargers aren’t very good, but they’re going to run it up on the Cards at home, maybe 35-17. SD is my pick.

@Philly -6 Washington
DP: The Washington defense is ‘experienced’ (that means old) and I think they will have a lot of trouble with the team speed on Philly. But this will be an emotional game on both sides and I think it will be tight. When in doubt take the points. Pick: Skins.

TJ: Philly’s laying six points at home, and I still like them. Their offense has looked great, and the D is excellent against the pass (Washington’s only hope) and weak against the run (Washington’s gameplan has less runs than Al Davis when he’s out of Muselix and prunes for a week). Everyone’s riding the Vick train, and I’m in the club car. I’ll lay the points and take the Eagles.

@NYG -4 Chicago
DP: This line is completely incomprehensible to me. The Giants have been terrible and the Bears are undefeated, so Vegas thinks the Giants would be a favorite on a neutral site? I have learned not to go against Vegas when things look this obvious. Pick: Giants.

TJ: Chicago’s victories have been very, very lucky. They’re a good team, but the Pack had them beat, and their three games have been won by 5, 7, and 3 points. That having been said, the Giants are 1-2 with losses of 24 and 19 points, and Coughlin seems to have lost the team (again). I don’t like either squad much, but I can’t take 1-2 against 3-0 and give up four points. Against my will, I’ll take the Bears.

NE -1 @Miami
DP: Basically you’re picking a winner. Pick: Pats.

TJ: This should be a really good game. Miami had two gutty road victories early, has a defense that’s giving up just over 14 points per game, and lost to a red-hot Jets team by only 8 points. That same Jets team beat the Pats by 14, and the Pats have to play on the road on a Monday Night, while their leading receiver is a rookie TE (whom I do love, by the way) and with a defense ranked in the bottom 3rd of the league. In a battle of former Michigan QB’s, I see Brady having the flashier numbers, but Henne doing just enough to get his team the win.