Week 3 Analysis

49ers (-3) 10-31 @Chiefs

DP:  KC’s offense finally showed what they are capable of: 200 yards rushing and some deep plays from Cassel. Hard to believe KC already has a 2 game lead on San Diego. Meanwhile, the NFC West is totally up in the air. The 49ers play @ Atlanta then Philly, they could very well be 0-5 to start the season. Arizona and Seattle lead the division at 2-1 with St. Louis sitting at 1-2, but they all look TERRIBLE. Some lucky wild-card team will get to play of these turds.

TJ: The Niners fired offensive coordinator Jimmy Raye after this debacle, but that’s like giving a boob job to a dead hooker: it may be an improvement, but unless you’re really fucking crazy, it’s a little too late.  As the good doctor says, though, the NFC West is nuts (and Bill Simmons just wrote a whole article on how a sub-.500 team could win that division), so I won’t bury this dead hooker until she’s got 9 losses.  I keep telling myself the Chiefs can’t be for real, but they do have Charlie Weiss and Romeo Crennel as coordinators, and the last team that did that had a pretty decent run.  Their division sucks, too, so maybe I’ve underestimated them.

@Minnesota (-11.5) 24-10 over Lions

DP: Yawn. After their Bye, the real stretch starts for Minny- @Jets, Cowboys, @Green Bay, @ New England. Need to go 2-2 to keep hope alive.

TJ: I’m with the Doc on this one as well: we learned nothing about the Vikings this week.  They better come out of that bye week smoking, or my money will be on Farve to re-re-re-retire by week 7.  The Lions continue to lose respectably, but they’re still a couple years away from being competitive.

@New England (-14) 38-30 Buffalo

DP: Move on folks, nothing to look at here.

TJ: Losing Faulk didn’t seem to slow down the NE offense, but then again, it was Buffalo.  If they look as good at Miami next week, I’ll buy in.  The Bills just cut Trent Edwards.  Man, Buffalo, are you telling me the guy isn’t as good as your 3^rd-stringer?  Why did you keep him around so long then?  Oh, that’s right, your management is incredibly inept.  Sorry.

@Saints (-3.5) 24-27 Falcons

DP: The Falcons needed a little luck, but succeeded in getting the Saints attention. I suspect these two are neck and neck all year heading into a week 16 re-match in Atlanta. One of these two should get a top-2 seed in the NFC.

TJ: I don’t like the way the Saints let the Falcons hang around, and I think losing Reggie Bush hurt more than they’d like to admit.  However, their next four games are CAR, AZ, TB, and CLE, meaning they’re a guaranteed 6-1, so it’s hard to be too pessimistic.  The Falcons played a smart game and really got Michael Turner rolling.  Their schedule is also pretty cushy, so I’m pretty sure that Week 16 rematch the Doc mentioned will be an awesome game.

@NY Giants (-3) 10-29 Titans

DP: I may have over estimated the Giants. It might be time to replace Tom Coughlin because the Giants apparently aren’t listening to him anymore.

TJ: I’m going to say this game was more about the Titans finding their stride.  Remember, their D is only giving up 14 points per game, and they’ve got the best running back in the league.  Strangely, they don’t play Houston or Indy until Week 12.  They better be 7-3 at that point if they want a chance at a wild card spot.

Pittsburgh (-2.5) 38-13 @Tampa

DP: Ben R can do no worse than 3-1 now; which is pretty amazing given the string of QB injuries that Pitt has faced. Pitt still has 5 gimme wins left (Cleveland X2, Oakland, @Buff, Carolina). They look good for a play-off slot.

TJ: Seriously, did anyone think Tampa was for real?  The Steelers look like a sexy Superbowl pick, but I say they were one Troy Polamalu injury from losses in their first two games (OT against Atlanta and 19-11 in Tennessee).  They play Baltimore next week, and they need a win to convince me they’re an elite team.

Cincinnati (-3) 20-7 @Carolina

DP: Not much of a roar in this game. Jimmy Clausen was as bad as expected for a rookie debut (16/33, 188, 5.7 y/pass, 0 TD, 1 Int, 53.6 rating), but actually rated higher than Carson Palmer (19/37, 195, 5.3 y/pass, 1 TD, 2 Int, 53.3 rating). Is Carson Palmer the most over rated player in the NFL?

TJ: The Bengals aren’t good.  Last week, their MVP was Joe Flacco.  They’ll beat the Browns and Bucs in the next two weeks, and everyone will be overhyping them, and then they’ll get CRUSHED by Atlanta, Miami, Pittsburgh, and Indy, and everyone will shut the fuck up again.  Last week I said Carolina sucked.  I misspoke.  They blow dirty goat assholes.

@Ravens (-10.5) 14-17 Browns

DP: I am impressed that the Browns are still playing hard despite the obvious fact they are going nowhere and their coach is a lame duck. Pitt vs. Baltimore should be a great match. The Ravens must win if they are serious about beating the Steelers for the division.

TJ: 3-point loss. 2-point loss. 7-point loss. 0-3.  If they lose to the Bengals by less than a TD next week, I’m going to find that dirty goat in Carolina and see if I can join in.  They Ravens are pros, and if Flacco can accept the Trent Dilfer memorial game-manager role, they’ll make the playoffs.

@Texans (-3) 13-27 Cowboys

DP: I watched the whole game and was impressed by the Cowboys poise and offensive diversity. Why can’t they play like that every week? Meanwhile, if they have no faith in their kicker then just sign someone already, I have no idea why they continue this charade.

TJ: The consensus says the Cowboys are talented head-cases while the Texans are smart, hard-working, and mediocre.  I think the ‘Boys are mostly just poorly coached and value skill positions over the line.  They’re finding their stride and might still be the best team in the NFC East, unless the Michael Vick experience 2.0 is for real.  The Texans might be pretty good, but Indy will have them figured out by their Week 8 rematch (which follows an Indy bye week), and the Titans might be rolling by the time they play Houston in Week 12.  It’s a long, but not impossible, road to a playoff spot for the Texans.

Washington (-3.5) 16-30 @Rams

DP: In the last 6 quarters the Redskins have gone from beating the Cowboys and having a big lead on the Houston, to collapsing against the Texans and crapping the bed against the Rams. Oh how quickly things go bad in the NFL.

TJ: Donovan is carrying a horrible team.  No receivers, a running back that’s in his early 50’s, and a defense whose best player isn’t allowed to start because he’s too big an asshole.  Meanwhile, MacNabb has to turn on ESPN at night and see Vick looking like a cross between Jim Brown and Joe Montana with all the offensive weapons the Redskins lack.  And he has to play them in Philly next week.  In a previous life, he must have beaten his grandmother to death with a bag of puppy corpses to deserve this karma.  Oh, and the Rams still suck.

Eagles (-3.5) 28-3 @Jacksonville

DP: I may have been wrong about Michael Vick. At least I’m not alone. Philly now has the most intriguing offense in the NFL.

TJ: Everyone is (rightly) talking about Vick’s improved decision-making and patience.  Maybe all Tony Romo needs is a couple years in jail and public humiliation, and he could develop pocket presence, too.  The Eagles defense looked much improved against a weak Jacksonville squad.  If they can play consistently against Washington and San Fran, they should be 4-1 going into a tough home game against Atlanta that should tell us a lot about both teams.

Indy (-5.5) 27-13 @Denver

DP: Austin Collie is on pace for 144 catches, 1915 yards and 21 touchdowns. Larry Fitzgerald is on pace for 64 receptions, 811 yards and 11 touchdowns. This is exhibit A of why you take an average receiver with a great QB over a great receiver with a terrible QB.

TJ: In Week 1, Houston proved you have to manhandle Indy to beat them.  Which other teams can do that?  I’d say Tenn would be a prime candidate, but the Colts don’t play them until Weeks 14 & 17, when they should have the record to cruise into the playoffs, and they don’t play Pitt, Minn, or Baltimore at all.  Put them down for 12-4 and a first-round bye, as usual.

@Arizona (-4.5) 24-23 Raiders

DP: I don’t play Fantasy anymore, so there is really no reason to care about this game.

TJ: I thought Oakland might be smelling a little rosier this season, but losing to the Cards smells more like the contents of Al Davis’s colostomy bag.  Put a fork in both these teams.

Chargers (-5.5) 20-27 @Seattle

DP: The fluke losses are adding up for the Chargers and will get no help from Marcus McNeil or Vincent Jackson for at least another 3 weeks. Meanwhile Seattle only has to win @ St. Louis to go 3-1 heading into their Bye Week. Could I have underestimated Pete Carroll as a coach? Nah.

TJ: The Vincent Jackson situation is just a debacle.  As time goes on, his trade value decreases (less time to learn a new offense, develop chemistry with a new QB, etc), while the Chargers get no benefit from having him around.  They seem to have no spark, and the Chiefs are looking better and better to win the AFC West.  Meanwhile, the Seahawks are a great team!  No, wait, they won two home games against shitty teams.  If they somehow make the playoffs (and their schedule is so weak that it’s a real possibility), they will lose 85-0 in round 1.

@Miami (-2) 23-31 vs Jets

DP: I will need to put my distaste for the Jets aside and start betting on them if Sanchez decides to keep playing like an actual Pro Quarterback. The Dolphins killer schedule continues with New England, @Green Bay, Pitt, @Cincy, @Balt, Tenn, Chicago.

TJ: This was a big win for the Jets, and really sets them up to contend for the division.  The get against the Bills twice, plus the Lions and Browns, which gives them six wins in the bank.  The other nine games are tough, but winning just four of them means a good shot at the playoffs, and winning five means they’re in.  I really like the Dolphins, but 23 rushes and 45 passes is not going to win games with Henne at QB.

Packers (-3) 17-20 @Bears

DP: Critics will say the Bears have been lucky (Calvin Johnson’s dropped TD pass in game 1, Packers fumble in game 3), but I say good teams are prepared to take advantage of lucky opportunities. The emergence of the Bears has to worry the Vikings as they could easily steal a wild-card from the Packers if they keep playing well.

TJ: These are two good teams, with two really stellar defenses.  Special teams made the difference (when did Devin Hester come out of his coma?).  They don’t play again until Week 17, so let’s hope it’s not a meaningless game with the starters resting for the playoffs.  I know Chicago has a great D, but the Packers have to have more than 15 rush attempts to win (compared to 45 passes).  They averaged 4.3 yards per rush, and were never way behind on the scoreboard, so why abandon the run like it’s a blind date with a herpes blister and a limp?  C’mon coach, stop listening to the QB and start calling a balanced game.