Week 12 Analysis

New England over Detriot-

DP:  I didn't catch much of this game because I was cooking/eating/traveling to the Cowboys game. I will say that when I left the score was 24-17 Detriot and even thought I had picked the Pats at -7, I was completely sure the Pats would come back and cover. Sure enough by the time I took my seat at Cowboy Stadium, the score was 45-24. Such is the state of Detriot. I do think Jim Schwartz is turning things around, but he is taking a lot of losses onto his record. Hopefully, the Lions can have one more good draft and be competitive next year.

TJ:  Losing Stafford really hurts the Lions, but it’s hard to imagine they could have scored 45 even with their starting QB.  The Patriots just keep winning games, and it’s hard to criticize that, but I still feel like they’re not as good as their record.  I think a truly physical team that can get after the passer (like Pitt or Baltimore) will be a huge test for the Pats in the playoffs.  I think they’ll cream the Jets on MNF this week, but I wouldn’t make them my superbowl favorite right now.

Saints over Cowboys-

DP: This was a really entertaining game, especially if you aren't a Cowboys fan. A couple of very odd decisions by the Cowboys including a questionable play call on 4th down and deciding to punt the ball instead of trying a 52 yard FG or going for it on 4th down. Lost in the dramatic win is the fact that the Saints aren't playing that well. Reggie Bush almost single handedly gave away the game and the offense is not as prolific as they were last season. They still have poise to win close games, but I think they will struggle to win the South and advance in the play-offs.

TJ:  I agree with the Doc, and will state adamantly: Atlanta>New Orleans.  The ball bounced New Orleans way quite a bit last season, and they aren’t getting any of the same breaks this year (they were +12 in TO margin last year, they’re -3 this year).  Face it, the Vikings should have won the NFC Championship last season.  The Saints are good, but they aren’t gonna repeat.

Jets over Bengals-

DP:  Given all of the high profile games spread out over the Thanksgiving weekend, the Jets managed to fly under the radar with a work-man-like win over the Bengals on a sleepy Thanksgiving evening. With the demise of the AFC South and West, all of the power is concentrated in the North and East. This will be a very interesting finish with Pitt/Balt and New England/Jets both fighting for Division titles. In each case one team will get a Bye and home field advantage and while the loser will have to win 3 (likely) road games to get to the Superbowl.

TJ:  You may have noticed that when I said the Pats would have trouble against aggressive teams that could get after the QB and listed Baltimore and Pitt, I didn’t mention the Jets.  That’s because I have no faith in the Jets at all, and am still waiting for them to collapse.  The offense is a paper tiger, and the defense has great schemes, but I don’t think they can hold the Pats under 17, which is the maximum the Jets O can score.  They can beat weak teams, but they need lucky turnovers to beat the good ones, and that luck won’t last.

Falcons over the Packers-

DP:  I watched a lot of this game which was a really hard fought, tight battle. This is one game swung entirely on the fact that Green Bay has almost no ability to run the ball on short distances. I actually liked the Green Bay offense between the 20s much better than the Falcons but they stalled close to the end zone. I don't think this bodes well for the Packers' chances in the playoffs where games are closer and the difference between a TD and FG is much more important. The Falcons continue to be the most consistent team in the NFC (and maybe the NFL), but now go on the road for three winnable games (@Bucs, @Panthers, @Seahawks). If they can win at least 2 out of those 3, I think they will win the NFC South. Meanwhile the Packers are one game behind the Bears and still have tough games @Pats and Giants before a season ending showdown with the Bears.

TJ:  Great analysis from the Doc.  If the Falcons can secure home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, they’ll probably be my pick to make the Superbowl.  However, I think this would be a different game if they’d played it outdoors up north.  If the Falcons have to travel to Chicago, Philly, or Green Bay, they may have a lot more trouble winning late in the playoffs.  The Green Bay/NE game will be awesome, and the Week 17 showdown with the Bears just got a lot more interesting with Chicago’s win over Philly this week.

Steelers over the Bills-

DP:  I didn't watch any part of this game other than the dropped pass in the OT by the Bills. The Steelers were probably lucky to pullout the win, but luck is an important factor in the NFL. You need to catch a couple of breaks each year. Anyway, it sets up a great show down next week with Steelers @ Ravens with the winner likely winning the North.

TJ:  The Steelers did everything they could to lose this game, but Buffalo managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.  I guess this is a classic case of the Steelers looking ahead (to Baltimore), but I felt like their offense was a bit exposed: they had 429 total yards of offense, but only managed 1 touchdown.  They actually only got inside the red zone 1 time (and scored their lone TD).  The 4 long FG’s (41, 45, 46, and 48yds) were very impressive for Suisham, but that will not get it done against the Ravens.

 Browns over Pathers-

DP:  Another game that I paid no attention to. I do have a question for the Juice about the Browns. Why did they start Delhomme over Colt McCoy? It makes no sense? They are not making the playoffs so why not figure out if McCoy is their starting QB of the future?

TJ:  McCoy didn’t start because apparently his high ankle sprain was worse than originally thought and they didn’t want to risk further injury.  Hopefully, he’ll start next week, because I agree, these games are valuable experience and a chance for him to develop without pressure.

Giants over Jags-

DP:  This is kind of the classic Eli Manning game. He and the Giants look like shit all game, but keep scraping and clawing and eventually pull out a win they probably didn't deserve. Like I said, the only good thing you can say about Manning is that he wins a lot. The Giants are now 7-4 and tied with the Eagles. The Jags missed a prime opportunity to take the lead on the AFC South with the Colts and Titans struggling. The AFC South is suddenly wide open with the Colts and Jags at 6-5 and the Texans and Titans at 5-6.

TJ:  I don’t like the way the Giants played either, and after losing to Philly last week, they had a lot to prove.  I think they’re an inferior team, but I thought that when they won the superbowl, too.  The Jags continue to surprise me.  I still don’t think they’re any good, but with Tennessee falling apart, they aren’t out of the division race.  I still think Indy will pull it together and run away with the division, but the Jags have a legitimate shot.  They have road games against all three division rivals coming, plus home games against the Raiders and ‘Skins.  They could go 3-2 in those games and win the division over a struggling Indy by tiebreaker.  I don’t expect it, but I’d be far from shocked.

 Vikings over Redskins-

DP:  Is there a team this year that has played more ugly games than the Redskins and Vikings? It’s one thing to be mediocre and rebuilding, it’s another to torture your fans with excruciatingly bad play. For Washington they have played the following stinkers: Dallas 13-7, Rams 16-30, Philly 17-12, Green Bay 16-13, Bears 17-14, Detriot 25-37, Tenn 19-16, and now Minny 17-13. At least against the Eagles they got blown out so their fans could turn off the game. Meanwhile the Vikings had the following turds: New Orleans 9-14, Miami 10-14, Lions 24-10, Dallas 24-21, Arizona 27-24, Chicago 13-27, and now Washington 17-13. Not sure what either fan base has to look forward to next year? Both are older teams that are fading, but neither can really feel they are 'one player away' from winning a Superbowl.

TJ:  Doc, I know the quality of play has been poor in many of those games, but are you really complaining about close games and saying you’d rather see blowouts?  That being said, watching this game was like watching old people fuck: it was ugly, it took forever, and the balls were oddly shaped.  The Vikes need this long nightmare to end, and the ‘Skins can’t hope to catch Philly and NYG.

Texans over Titans-

DP:  Of all of my gambling mistakes this weekend, this is the one I feel dumbest about. The Texans weakness is pass defense and the Titans do not have a passing attack to exploit that, especially with a third string QB. The Texans are now back in the AFC South Race. They have the Eagles on Thursday and then the Ravens the week after that. If they can win those two they end with the Titans, Broncos and Jags.

TJ:  That’s a big fucking “if,” Doc.  I don’t see any way the Texans win both of those games.  If they win one, then sweep the last three, they finish 9-7.  Still might be enough to sneak into the division lead, since they’d be 4-2 in the division.  Sadly, I think we have to count the Titans out.  Any chance you’ll see Fisher coaching in Dallas next year, Doc?

Dolphins over Raiders-

DP:  Another match-up of mediocre teams. I wish I had known Henne would be back, I probably would have bet on the Dolphins. Miami is now 5-1 on the road and 1-4 at home. Too bad for the Dolphins they have 3 more games at home. 

TJ:  Neither of these teams has a prayer for the playoffs this season.  Have the Raiders decided between Campbell and Gradkowski yet?  I mean, Gradkowski played this game, but not well (63.5 QB rating).  Seems like a pertinent question heading into next year.

 Chiefs over Seahawks-

DP:  I was the most excited about this result of all of the weekend games. First of all, my Chief's love has been validated. The Chiefs are clinging to a one game lead over the Chargers, but still have three home games left where they are undefeated (Denver, Tenn, Oakland). That leaves a December 12th show down with the @Chargers for the AFC West. Meanwhile the Seahawks are now 5-6 meaning there is no winning team in the NFC West. The Seaskanks go to Carolina next weekend but also get the Falcons and @Bucs so 7-9 is still in play!

TJ:  The Chiefs may still be leading the division, but my money is solidly on the Chargers now.  The Chiefs will lose to the Chargers in two weeks and the Rams the week after.  The Chargers won’t lose again and will win the division.  The Seaskanks and the NFC West are a joke.  I hope the Rams win it, just for shits and giggles.

Bears over Eagles-

DP:  The Bears are now 8-3 with a quality win so I can no longer dismiss them. They are the classic 'counter-punch' team. They can't dictate the game, but sit back and wait to counter the other team with big plays like long TDs, sacs, and interceptions. They still have the Pats and Jets on the schedule so I am looking at the season finale against the Packers as a likely show down for the NFC North and a possible first round bye. The Eagles are now fight for the NFC East with the Giants but have a much more favorable schedule (Texans, Vikings and Cowboys X2). I don't think any of those teams has the defense to contain Vick like the Bears did so I expect the Eagles to get back on track.

TJ:  I was very confused by this result.  How the fuck did the Bears get to 8-3?  I still like the Pack to win the North, but my money is off the table.  I thought the Eagles were better than this.  If I liked the Giants at all, I’d take them to win the East, but as it is, I expect the Eagles to roll through the rest of their schedule and win @NYG in week 15 to coast into the playoffs.  What they do there is another question, because if they can’t beat the Bears on the road, they’ll have a hell of a time winning in Atlanta . . . especially with all the added pressure on Vick there.

Rams over Broncos-

DP:  Normally I wouldn't care about a turd like this one, but the Rams are actually tied for the lead in the Putrid NFC West (that is the official name now). For my dream of a 7-9 Division champ to come true, I also need the Rams to win only 2 more games. Unfortunately, they play the Cardinals next week, but then get the Saints and Chiefs. They end with the 49ers and Seaskanks. I would love for both Seattle and St. Louis to enter the final game 6-9!

TJ:  I love the Doc’s dream, but I think it more likely St Louis wins 3 more to finish 8-8 and win the division.  The Broncos are garbage.  I’m surprised a player hasn’t pulled a Spreewell and choked Josh McDaniels to death yet.

Chargers over Colts-

DP:  I am half way to my prediction of 4 losses in a row! I am really only worried about the Titans utter collapse. Next week is the Cowboys and I think they have the offensive balance to really give the Colts trouble. I do want to take this opportunity to take a look back at the Colts amazing run of success. In the age of parity, you can't ignore 7 straight years of 12 wins. The problem for players like Manning is that he makes the players around him look much better than they actually are (name one Colts player who went to another team and was better than they were on the Colts). Manning reads the defense and then passes to the player in the best position to exploit the defense. This way he masks the overall lack of talent on the Colts roster because the players are constantly in a position to make a play and don't have to rely upon their skills. Unfortunately, this deficiency is exposed by quality teams like the Pats and Chargers. The Cowboys have that kind of talent too if they can pull their collective heads out of their collective asses. That being said they are still 4-1 at home and have three home games (Cowboys, Jags, and Titans) and the road games (Titans and Raiders) are also winnable so they still have a chance to go 10-6 and win the AFC South. I am not sure though if another first round exit (to the hands of the Pats/Jets/Ravens/Steelers) would really help the Manning legacy that much. The Colts might really benefit more from a one year meltdown where they can clear out some unproductive players and get a few more high draft picks if they want to regroup and make one more Superbowl run in the Manning Era.

TJ:  Hard to argue with the Doc about the Colts, but I think their schedule is too easy to write them off.  They’ll finish with 10 or 11 wins, and Manning makes them hard to bet against in the first round.  The Chargers have the momentum and the schedule to run the table, and I think they will.  Norv will fuck it up in the playoffs, but until then, they’re golden.

49ers over Cardinals-

DP:  With the 49ers win, I made it to 8-8 on the weekend which I can live with. The game itself was crap, as expected for the NFC West. San Fran is now 4-7 and one game out of 1st place in the West, but has to face the Packers next. The one real highlight of the game came late in the 4th when cameras caught Derek Anderson with what can best be described as a nervous smile and half-chuckle on the side-line. At the post-game news conference a reporter badgered him about why he would be smiling and laughing after a bad loss. Anderson handled himself well at first then kind of blew up and left abruptly. So where would ESPN go for insight and commentary on the situation? Mr. Matt Millen! He actually gave a very thoughtful reflection on sometimes you hide your pain and embarrassment behind a fake smile. It was kind of a touching moment really and now I fully understand why ESPN hired him. Most studio shows hire really successful former players like Steve Young, Terry Bradshaw, and Howie Long, but no one hires an abject failure to talk about what it’s like to deal with public humiliation on a weekly basis in such a public forum as the NFL. Bravo Matt, you are a true trail blazer! First drafting a wide receiver in the first round for three consecutive years and now this.

TJ: God, the Matt Millen thing is hilarious.  But yeah, if I were Anderson, I’d be pissed, too.  What the question implies is that he doesn’t give a shit about winning.  For any athlete that does care, that’s about the worst insult you can make, because it suggests that he’s a pussy AND that he isn’t a team player.  Rough.  Too late for the 49ers to make a run, especially with @GB and @San Diego still on the schedule.  It’ll be interesting to see if Singletary gets invited back next season!

Playoffs?

Last night's 4 INT debacle in Indianapolis reminded me of one of the all-time great postgame rants. Nine years ago on Nov 25, 2001, the Colts under Mora lost 40-21 to the 49ers after Peyton Manning threw 4 INTs. The loss dropped the Colts to 4-6, they would eventually end up 6-10. Mora responded to a reporters question with his now famous, high-pitched squeal "Playoffs?!?! Don't talk about playoffs! You kidding me?" 2001 would be the ONLY time Peyton Manning would miss the playoffs since his rookie season (so far). Its interesting to note the aftermath of the rant. Mora would be fired and replaced by Tony Dungy the following season. At #11 the Colts would 'reach' for an undersized DE from Syracuse named Dwight Freeney. With Dungy leading the team and Freeney supplying the pass rush, the Colts would go on to post the following season win totals: 10, 12, 12, 14, 12, 13, 12, 14. That's an average of 12.375 wins/season for 8 years including a record 7 straight seasons of 12+ wins plus two Superbowl appearances and 1 Superbowl win.

Week 12 Picks

Minnesota    -1        At Washington-

DP: Minny is favored at Washington? I guess they are counting on better effort from the D after Leslie Frazier was installed as head coach. In a battle of two struggling franchises who started the season with big hopes, I’ll take the home team. Pick: Redskins.

TJ: I can see Minny being favored with the change at head coach likely to result in an increased effort for a game or two (see: Dallas).  Also, there isn’t much to like about the ‘Skins right now, with dysfunction on both sides of the ball and on the sidelines as well.  I’m guessing Minnesota plays their best game of the season, much to the frustration of their fans, and wins by double digits.

Pittsburgh    -6.5     At Buffalo-

DP: I realize Buff is playing better, but all the Steelers need is a TD to cover. The Bills are playing better, but their competition has been weak recently. Pick: Steelers.

TJ: Pittsburgh’s three losses came against Baltimore, New Orleans, and New England.  They don’t lose to bad teams.  Meanwhile, Buffalo’s only wins are against Detroit and Cincy.  They don’t beat good teams.  I can’t see any way for Buffalo to lose this game by less than 14.

At Houston   -6        Tennessee-

DP: This is a hard game to figure. Houston has been struggling but Tenn is starting someone named Rusty Smith, not exactly an inspiring name for a QB. For some reason I like the Titans to keep it close. Pick: Titans.

TJ: The Titans appear to be on the verge of falling apart, getting six points from a crappy team.  Classically, that’s exactly what the Titans like best.  They love that “Nobody believes in us” stuff.  I think they win this game big.

At NY Giants -7        Jacksonville-

DP: I think the Giants may have peaked too early. After winning 5 in a row, they have now lost 2. Meanwhile, Jax is on a three game win streak. Momentum is a fickle bitch in the NFL. Pick: Giants.

TJ: I still hate Jacksonville, and their win streak has come against crappy Dallas, Houston and Cleveland teams (the last two at home).  It’s hard to see them traveling to New York and winning.  I see the Giants getting healthy against bad teams over the next three weeks to set up a great game against Philly on December 19^th.  Still, 7 is a big line . . . nah, I’ll take the G-men.

At Cleveland            -10      Carolina-

DP: Cleveland prefers the underdog role. Not sure they handle being 10 point favorites very well. Carolina was in the game last week against the Ravens until a couple of late defensive TDs. I’ll go with the points and hope for a close low scoring game. Pick: Panthers.

TJ: Ten points is a lot, and you know I don’t often pick my Brownies to win.  But Carolina doesn’t just suck, they give slow, deliberate head with lots of eye contact.  Cleveland wins by 24!

At Baltimore -7.5     Tampa Bay-

DP: Way too many points for a Ravens team that has trouble covering. I like the Bucs to keep it close. Pick: bucs.

TJ: Josh Freeman finally has his inevitable shitty game, and the Ravens completely embarrass the Bucs, for all intents and purposes eliminating them from the division race.  Baltimore covers.

Philadelphia            -3.5     At Chicago

DP: I’ve seen a lot of Philly games and I think they are the real deal. If the Bears can win here it might change my opinion of them, but that’s a big IF. Pick: Eagles.

TJ: I know the Bears have won three straight, but the Bills, Vikes, and ‘Phins aren’t exactly a murderers’ row.  Philly, on the other hand, has looked great in wins over the Colts and Giants and a blowout of Washington on the road.  I like them to put up some points again this week, and I like their D to put Cutler on his ass a few too many times as well.  Eagles cover.

At Atlanta     -2        Green Bay

DP: This is a very nice match-up between two teams playing well. Atlanta is due for a let down, but they are tough at home. Pick: Falcons.

TJ: Atlanta is terrific at home, especially when Ryan is healthy (19-1).  I love the way Green Bay is playing on both sides of the ball: they’ve won their last three games by a combined score of 85-10.  This is an awesome game, maybe an NFC Championship preview.  It’s really a pick’em, but I’ll take the Pack to keep rolling.

At Oakland   -3        Miami

DP: Who the hell knows? The Dolphins are tough on the road and have played a much harder schedule but they are starting Tyler Thigpen again. Reluctantly, pick: Raiders.

TJ: The Raiders can beat bad teams and mediocre teams, just not good teams.  Miami isn’t good.  I like the Raiders at home.

Kansas City   -2.5     At Seattle

DP: I know Seattle is at home, but they have not had a decent win since week 6. I’ll stick with my KC love and my dream of a 7-9 NFC West division winner. Pick: Chiefs.

TJ: I like the way the Doc is thinking, and I hate to pick against the 7-9 NFC West Champ dream.  But I’m off the Chiefs, who lost their last two road games against bad teams.  Seattle wins at home and solidifies their division lead.

At Denver     -3.5     St. Louis

DP: Just another completely unpredictable game. St. Louis is winless on the road and have the 19^th ranked pass defense. Hopefully, the Broncos take care of business at home. Pick: Broncos.

TJ: Wish I could pick “C: None of the above.”  I’ll go with St. Louis just to be contrary.

At Indianapolis       -2.5     San Diego-

DP: I continue to believe the Colts will lose 4 in a row. Pick: Chargers.

TJ: Happy to see the Doc rocking the “reverse jinx.”  San Diego is on a roll right now, but going across the country and winning in the dome is a tall order.  I think the Chargers’ defense is bad enough for Indy to get their shit together on offense and win by a field goal or more.

San Francisco          -1        At Arizona

DP: I would have loved to see the look on Jon Gruden and Ron Jaworski’s faces Tuesday morning when they walked into work, looked at their game for this week, and tried to figure out how to come up with a decent promo. Seriously, this is the biggest turd of the week. Anyway, I continue to believe San Fran makes a late push for the NFC West. Pick: Niners.

TJ: Over the last five games the 49ers are 3-2 with a close road loss.  Over that same stretch, the Cards are 0-5.  In the “what have you done for me lately” NFL, I’m going with the hot hand (or the hand that’s least corpse-cold): San Fran.

View at the Cowboys Game

The NFL Experience: Live vs. Home

There has been a lot of talk recently about a lack of sell-outs in certain markets and how HDTV and soaring ticket costs have made home viewing better than attending a live game. This week Doctor Psych put the NFL to the test by attending the Saints vs. Cowboys game on Thanksgiving.

Background- the last time the good Doc attended a game was 2002. Cowboys vs. Titans back in old Texas Stadium. $59 got you a ticket in the lower end zone corner about 20 rows up. I don’t think there were many HDTVs back then and they probably cost several thousands dollars. The Doc has always wanted to attend a Thanksgiving Day game since watching the Lions and Cowboys host games when he was a kid. Since we aren’t going on vacation this year (too tough with Jr.) it seemed like a good time to splurge on an NFL game.

1. Tickets- This game sold out before individual tickets went on sale through Ticket Master, so DP had to venture into the realm of the ‘secondary market’ to pick up his tickets. For $240/ticket you can get the 50-yard 6th row of the upper deck. I believe these seats had a ticket license fee of $12,000 per seat (which means it cost $12,000 for the right to purchase tickets for 30 years). It’s actually a pretty nice place to watch a game as you have a nice view of the entire field and the giant TV screen in Cowboy Stadium. After StubHub fees, shipping, and tax the final cost was close to $600 total.

Advantage- Home. For $600 you can buy a decent HDTV; which obviously is good for more than one game.

2. Traffic/Parking/Time- Another reason for staying home is the headache of driving to game, waiting in traffic, and parking. Old Texas Stadium could be a mess, so Cowboys Stadium is a big upgrade. Arlington put Cowboys Stadium on the other side of the Texas Rangers Ballpark so there are ample streets and parking (>24,000 spots). The best spots are for season ticket holders, so we showed up an hour early to pay $30 for a spot about 1 mile away from the Stadium. It was a little cold here yesterday, but not a bad way to walk off some of those Thanksgiving Day calories. Luckily, the long walk back to the car made it a breeze to get out. We hit the highway and were back home in 15 minutes. Overall we were out of the house from 1:15 CST to 7:45 CST, so it was 6.5 hours for one game.

Advantage- Home. Even with the improvements traffic sucks and $30 seems like a lot for one spot. Maybe if I were into tailgating I would feel differently.

3. Food- The Cowboys and Yankees teamed up to form a new catering company when they both built their new stadiums. This catering company was supposed to reinvent the quality of stadium food. Well I didn’t see it. I have been to the Stadium twice now (once before for the NBA All-Star game) and there are a few little upgrades (like additional toppings for Hamburgers), but overall the food is still basically the same: hotdogs, pizza, nachos, peanuts, popcorn, pretzels. They did have Frito-pie (sort of like a version of nachos with chili and cheese covering frito-lay chips), but otherwise I was unimpressed. You can expect about a 3-4 fold mark-up on everything. A small bag of chips or candy was $3, pretzel $5, water $5, soda $6, Miller Lite $8.5. I think pizza or BBQ sandwiches were $8-10.

Advantage- Home. I had two beers and a pretzel = $22. The Mrs. had two waters and a Frito-Pie =$18. You can eat pretty well at home for $40.

4. Atmosphere- This is where the live experience should win easily. First of all, Cowboys Stadium is spectacular and the enormous HD screen is everything it is cracked up to be. The screen brings new elements to the game experience like instant replay, so that is a nice perk (although I often found that they did not reply good plays by the Saints which was irritating as a football fan). That being said, Cowboys Stadium is about as sterile and life-less as people have said. I haven’t seen it written, but there is a clear separation of the good seats from the ‘riff-raff’. The best seats are along the sidelines for the first three decks. All of those seats are high end luxury boxes, suites, and ‘team seating’. They have their own entrance (no waiting in line to be patted down like the rest of us), their own food, and their own bathrooms. You can’t even walk around the Stadium; they only allow people with tickets in the hallways along the sidelines so you can’t walk from end to end. The seat licenses for these seats starts around $125,000 for 30 years. As you can imagine the center of the Stadium is filled with really rich, really white people (I don’t know what they do in New York or LA, but in Dallas the rich people go to Cowboy games to show off their wealth). In the general seating sections (end zones and upper deck), I would say it was 50-50 Cowboy and Saint fans (I was sort of expecting this, there are still a lot of displaced NOLA folks from Katrina). I was actually surrounded by Saint fans and they were almost louder than the Cowboy fans. There were some odd moments like when Roy Williams caught a pass for 40 yards then fumbled near the end of the game. First the Cowboy fans went crazy, then all of the Saint fans in my section went crazy and started high-5’ing each other.

Advantage- Game, but its much closer than you would think. The game would probably be much more fun with a group of friends.

5. Intangibles- I had completely forgotten that the Thanksgiving shows get half-time entertainment until I saw Kid Rock during the Detroit. We ended up with Keith Urban. I can’t say I am a big fan of his music but he was alright. We did treated to Jerry Jones greeting Keith Urban and Nicole Kidman on the big screen; which was pretty funny. One odd note was that the AV people at the stadium decided to put images of fake flames, stars, or the silhouettes of people around his image on the screen. I have no idea why, it him look like a Monster Truck rally. We also got a few games during the commercials, but the give-aways were decidedly sad. I think one section got $10 coupons off of groceries and another section got a free double cheeseburger with purchase of a drink. Everyone won ‘three free toppings’ on a Papa John’s pizza, I assume you have to buy the pizza. I should call up and ask for sausage, onions and peppers. Considering how Jerry Jones has licensed the Cowboys logo to every freakin’ company in Dallas, you would think they would have better prizes. They also had a ‘Kiss-Cam’ where the camera panned around the stadium on different couples that were then supposed to kiss. Not nearly as exciting as the ‘Kiss Cam’ at Ranger and Maverick games, the crowd of mostly old white people did not seem to grasp the concept. It did lead to one of the funniest moments of the evening. Right after the ‘Kiss-Cam’ segment was over they put up two little girls probably 4 and 6 years old on the screen. I wasn’t paying attention and I thought they wanted the girls to start making out. Finally, since it was Thanksgiving we got to witness people dressing up as Turkeys and Pilgrims and other crazy characters.

Advantage- Game. Football games are decidedly a good place for people-watching.

Overall- At a final cost of $670 for two people, the game was fun, but a definite splurge. Watching football at home is a much better value, but sometimes its still fun to go to a game. Kind of like a pilgrimage to a religious site.

Thanksgiving Picks

New England               -6.5            At Detroit

DP:  This one seems really low, I would have expected a much bigger line, somewhere around Pats -10. I don’t think the Pats will have any problems covering. Pick: NE.

TJ:  I agree that the line seems low, but the Pats have had a tough stretch (close wins over Pittsburgh and Indy) and might be due for a let-down.  If it were anyone but the Lions.  Pats cover, going away.

New Orleans               -4            At Dallas

DP:  This is should be a fun high scoring game. I still think Dallas is a little suspect on defense and Kitna is due for a few turnovers. I will take the Saints. Pick: NOLA

TJ:  The Doc will be in attendance for a true ass-whipping.  The Saints stupidify the Cowboys, 42-13.

At NY Jets            -9            Cincinnati

DP:  The Jets have not been playing well, but they have certainly been playing better than the Bengals. The Jets are at home on a short week, and I don’t the Bengals will be playing hard. Pick: Jets.

TJ:  Here’s where the Doc and I disagree.  The Jets have had a ton of close wins lately, and really aren’t playing very well.  I think the Bengals sneak up on them, and keep the game close.  Hell, they may win it outright.  Cincy’s the pick.

Week 11 Recap

Bears 16-0 @Dolphins
TJ: I wasn’t too high on the Bears before this game, and the Doc and I have thought highly of Miami all season, so I was a bit surprised to see a shutout here. Why do the ‘Phins suck so much at home (1-4)? And why the vanilla offense? I know they’re injured and down to their 3rd QB, but isn’t that all the more reason to use some of the weird sets and option stuff that was so successful last year? Can’t figure them out. The Bears still aren’t a real contender, but at 7-3, they should easily get a wild card and get crushed in the first (unless they draw the NFC West winner!).
DP: I agree with The Juice on all of his points. I guess I was blinded by my love of Tyler Thigpen after he carried me a Fantasy title a couple of years back when my #1 QB (Tom Brady) went down early. At 5-5, it will be very difficult to get to 10-6; which is probably what you need in the AFC this year to get a wild-card.

@Jaguars 24-20 Browns
TJ: Well, my Brownies just can’t seem to win the close ones (5 of 7 losses by less than a TD, only one win by less than 13). They have no passing game and a porous defense. I still think they should kill Carolina this week, and I hope they can put together a few wins to save Mangini’s job. I don’t think another coach is the answer right now. The Jags still aren’t good, but with Tennessee’s immanent collapse and Indy’s injuries, their prospects are on the rise. With TENN, OAK, WASH, and HOU still on the schedule, they have a legit shot at ten wins.
DP: I think Mangini’s job is safe. As Peter King pointed out on PTI yesterday, teams don’t wanted to pay both a fired coach and an expensive new coach if there is a lock-out, so a lot of teams will be more willing to keep a coach they are luke-warm on. As a Colts fan (and someone who believes the Colts WILL LOSE THE NEXT 3 GAMES), I think you might be right about the Jags. They might just sneak into the play-offs with 10 wins. Brrrrr. That was me shuddering at the thought.

Bills 49-31 @Bengals
TJ: The Bills are on a win streak!!! Fitzpatrick threw 4 TDs! They can run the ball! They pitched a shutout in the second half! Oh, wait, it was the Bengals? Big fucking deal.
DP: Umm, who cares?

@Cowboys 35-19 Lions
TJ: Even if they run the table, the Cowboys can’t make the playoffs, can they? I mean, at 9-7? There are three non-division-leading 7-3 teams in the NFC (and one 6-4), so they’d require a TON of help to catch an opening. Plus, they still have the Saints tomorrow, @Indy, and Philly twice. No way they win all of those. The Lions are still scrappy. Their next three games are at home against NE, CHI, and GB. I expect them to win one of those and maybe screw up one of the division races in the process.
DP: Weird game that turned on two weird plays: the punt return for a TD as the Lions were trying to down the ball inside the 10 yard line and the ‘Horse collar’ tackle that was actually all hair. Like the Bengals, the Lions seem to invent new ways to lose games. God knows what would happen if they played each other. I have had to listen to the Cowboy fans all week. Basically they need to run the table and hope that Philly goes to 9-7 and the Giants go to 8-8. The Cowboys play Philly twice, so that’s 2 losses. That means Philly would have to loss 2 more out of Bears, Texans, Giants, and Vikings. I don’t think that is gonna happen.

Redskins 19-6 @Titans
TJ: Doc, what’s going on with Vince Young? Think all that suicide watch stuff from a couple years back was legit? Think this guy’s genuinely unstable? Or is Fisher a demanding control freak who finally drove a good young QB to the edge? The latest is that they won’t even let Young attend team meetings. The owner says both Young and Fisher will be back next year, but that seems unlikely to me. The Titans’ season probably over, even though Indy looks vulnerable and the Jags are pretenders. Meanwhile, the ‘Skins are done as well, especially since Philly and the Giants are looking so good. What sort of retarded free-agent signings does Daniel Snyder have in the queue for this offseason? Is Keyshawn still available?
DP: Well Juice, for a long time I thought Vince Young was gay and all of the crazy, histrionics were a result of him struggling to be a team leader while hiding his true lifestyle. Then there was the Strip Club incident in Dallas last year where he took a swing at a guy who insulted U of Texas, so either he is actually straight and crazy or it was staged. I am like 50-50 on this. As for Jeff Fischer, I think he doesn’t like Young and never wanted him, but he was forced into it by the owner. Now he is fucking with Young in some kind of power struggle with the owner where either Bud Adams backs down or fires him so he can move on to a higher paying job. Personally, I think Fischer should move on and go to the NFC where he would be much more likely to win a Superbowl.

@Chiefs 31-13 Cardinals
TJ: Playing the Cardinals: a great way for a sliding team to get a much needed win since 1988 (three winning seasons in 23 years). The Chiefs have a one-game lead in the division with an easy schedule. With the Raiders (re-)exposed as pretenders, only the Chargers pose a threat. The December 12th game in San Diego could decide the division.
DP: Yeah, I am really worried that my Chiefs pick is in real jeopardy now. The Chargers look pretty good and, if they can get by the Colts this weekend, the rest of their schedule is soft (Oakland, KC, San Fran, @Cincy, @Denver). They may not lose again. The Chiefs really need to beat San Diego again and sweep the season match-up; which would effectively give them a 2 game lead.

Packers 31-3 @Vikings
TJ: Wow, the Vikes have really fallen apart. Looks like the Chillidog got fired a couple weeks too late. With the way the defense is playing, Favre is actually the least of the Vikings problems. The Pack seem to have gotten their shit together. They’ve won four in a row by a combined score of 113-34. They’re a much better team than the Bears, and if they beat Atlanta this week, they should cruise into the playoffs.
DP: What the Juice is failing to tell our loyal readers is that we placed a beer bet on the final records of the Packers and Vikings before the season started. I think I have pretty much locked up a sweet, sweet victory in that one.

@Jets 30-27 Texans
TJ: The Texans are the biggest dick-teases in the league. Every year, they look like they’re ready to make a playoff run. Every year, they blow the fuck up. They’ve lost four in a row, their defense is horrendous, and with guaranteed losses against Philly and Baltimore still on the schedule, the playoffs are impossible. They still have Tennessee twice, so they can at least take pleasure in ending the Titans’ hopes as well. The Jets are 8-2, but they’ve played like a 5-5 team for the last few weeks. A shutout loss to the Pack and three super-close victories against bad teams (CLE, DET, and HOU) is not going to convince me the Jets are super-bowl bound. They better kill the Bengals this week, then be ready to prove their worth in a Monday Night showdown against the Pats in two weeks.
DP: I agree with the Juice that the Jets have not played like an 8-2, so how the hell do you handicap Jets -9 vs. Bengals? The Bengals have been even worse. I think I’ll go with the Jets on this one, but I don’t feel great about it. A lot of interesting games coming up (Jets-Pats, Ravens-Steelers, Chiefs-Chargers), I think I really like the heavy load of late season intra-division games. It gives the NFL sort of a college feel where the rivalry games are always at the end of the season.

@Steelers 35-3 Raiders
TJ: There’s that Raiders team we all know and love! Where have you guys been the last couple weeks? This was a defensive clinic from the Steelers: 61 yds rushing, 121 yds passing, 2INTs, 3 forced fumbles, 6 sacks, and 3 points allowed. Those are fucking Steel Curtain 1975-type numbers. The Raiders aren’t out of the division hunt completely, but I think they just showed that if they can miraculously make the playoffs, they’re going to get smoked like a ham-hock in the first round. The Steelers are good. They’re game at Baltimore in two weeks should be a battle.
DP: I can’t believe the Pats have the Raiders #1 this year. Hopefully, they can put together a few more wins and knock the pick down a little more.

Ravens 37-13 @Panthers
TJ: I’m surprised the Panthers scored 13 points. Who the fuck is Brian St. Pierre? He sounds more like the UFC middleweight champion than a starting NFL QB. The Ravens have 7 wins, and still have Houston, Cincy, and Cleveland on the schedule, so they’re probably going to fight Pittsburgh for the division.
DP: Carolina is the worst team in football right now. They still @Browns and Cards on the schedule, but no way they get above 3 wins. Personally, I would put my money on 2-14 and the top pick.

Falcons 34-17 @Rams
TJ: Said it in previous weeks: the Rams need another year or two. The Falcons, on the other hand, look like the real deal. They haven’t lost at home this season. That’s key, because their toughest remaining game may be home against the Pack this week. If they win that one, look for them to lock up home-field for the playoffs (they have another home game against the Saints, but a soft remaining schedule that includes Carolina twice).
DP: The Rams are 0-4 on the road and their next 3 are away from St. Louis. Still, even 4 wins is a success for them. We’ll see about the Falcons in the coming weeks. The top seed in the NFC is theirs to take, but have they taken ‘The Leap’.

@Saints 34-19 Seahawks
TJ: No surprise here: the Saints are back on track, and the Seahawks are another NFC West dud who can’t win on the road. 4TDs for Drew Brees, two of them to Marquise Colston – sounds like the 2009 Saints to me! They probably can’t catch Atlanta for the division (road games against Dallas tomorrow, and Baltimore and Atlanta coming up), but they should easily take a Wild Card spot and be poised to make noise in January.
DP: Once again another game where we expose a fraud and learn nothing about a contender (see Pitt v. Oak, Ravens v. Panthers, Falcons v. Rams). Let’s just keep moving. At least the Saints v Cowboys game has a little juice to it now. Should be a great game!

Bucs 21-0 @49ers
TJ: I think this game says more about how much the 49ers suck than how good Tampa is (the Bucs are a good team that always takes care of business against weaker opponents, a hallmark of good coaching, and they’re going to get better). The 49ers need to tear it down a rebuild AGAIN, and that’s not good (they haven’t had a winning season since 2002). Troy Smith didn’t pass as well this game, but he showed some mobility, and he can’t be ruled out as the long-term answer at QB. We’ll know a lot more about him after the Arizona game this week: if he can’t put up numbers against the Cards defense, he’s a bust).
DP: I should have gone with my gut on this one. The 49ers may be terrible at 3-7, but they are only 2 GAMES BACK. If they can sweep Arizona (and there is no reason to believe this won’t happen) and win @Seattle (not easy but possible) that would get them to 6 wins. If 7-9 wins the West, then they would just need to win @Packers, @Chargers, or @Rams. The Bucs still have @Ravens, Falcons, and @Saints, but 10-6 and a wild-card is not out of the question.

@Pats 31-28 Colts
TJ: Tough loss for the Colts, who hung in there in spite of an uncharacteristic suck-fest by Peyton. With the Titans looking shaky and the Texans already looking forward to the draft, the Colts can still feel good about their chances to win the division. Man, looking back, in the first few weeks of the season, I thought the AFC South might be the best division in the NFL. Now, only the West divisions look more troubled. The Pats are doing everything good teams are supposed to do. I think they’ll beat the Jets at home on Monday night in two weeks, but the real test might be against Green Bay at home in December. Either way, the Pats are a playoff team, for sure.
DP: Once again this the worst possible scenario for me. I pick against the Colts, but they cover the spread in the loss, so I don’t even get the gambling credit. I don’t think I can bring myself to watch the Chargers game this weekend. This could get ugly.

@Eagles 27-17 Giants
TJ: Yeah, so Vick had his worst game of the season, and his QB rating was 83. That’s nuts. He still doesn’t have a single fucking INT! This team has crazy speed and a good defense. They’re built differently from any other contender, which makes them hard to game-plan against. If they can hold it together and make the playoffs healthy and with a first-round bye, they could be incredibly dangerous. The Giants are a good team, but I have them behind Philly, GB, and Atlanta for sure, and the Saints may be able to turn it on as well. In other words, I don’t expect the Giants to make the NFC Championship, let alone the superbowl.
DP: I agree with The Juice once again. I think a Philly-Atlanta NFC title is very likely with only Green Bay and the Saints even having a chance to crash the party.

@Chargers 35-14 Broncos
TJ: The Broncos hanging 49 on the Chiefs last week was just an aberration. This team stinks, and I don’t know how they’re going to fix it. The defense is the biggest problem, but I don’t like their O-line either, and I can’t imagine Kyle Orton is the long-term answer at QB. Most of all, their coach is a douche-bag, and I think he belongs more as an assistant to Lane Kiffin at USC than as a head-coach in the NFL. The Chargers have the schedule and the offense to make a run at the AFC West, but I still think coach Norv will fuck it up before it’s all over. Rivers is putting up some amazing stats, but with their schedule, and always playing from behind, I think Brees, Peyton, or Brady could throw for 7,000 yards in a season under the same circumstances. My point: Rivers is NOT the MVP.
DP: NOTE TO THE JUICE: when Michael Vick is your chief competition, then you are the MVP. Still I will agree that I see the Pats going 12-4 and winning the AFC. In that case, I see Brady getting back into the race and winning a close vote.

Week 11 Picks

At Pittsburgh -7.5 Oakland-
DP: Oakland may have won three in a West, but I don’t like their chances to go across the country and face an angry Pitt team. Pick: Steelers.

At NY Jets -6.5 Houston-
DP: I think the Houston free fall continues, but the Jets are only 2-2 at home and have not won by more than 6 points in their last 4 games. I think the Texans keep it close. Pick: Texans.

Baltimore -11.5 At Carolina
DP: These are the types of games I hate to bet on, because Baltimore has no incentive to run up the score to cover. I will go with the Ravens because I think Carolina may have quit on their coach and they are starting a stay-at-home at QB this week, so I am not sure how many points they can score.

At Tennessee -7 Washington
DP: Both teams are struggling a bit with Tenn losing 2 in a row and Washington losing 3 out of 4. Washington is coming off a short week and has to travel, but 7 is a big number to cover and (with the exception of last week) the Redskins do play a lot of close games. Pick: Redskins.

At Dallas -6 Detroit
DP: This is a match up of the two traditional Thanksgiving Day game hosts. Since teams are 2-7, it will ensure that 2-8 and 3-7 teams are featured on National TV for a Thanksgiving audience. Maybe its time to reconsider Thanksgiving scheduling and spread the wealth a little? As for the game, I have had crazy man-love for Detroit all season. They are 2-7, but have lost by more than 6 only twice. I think the Suh kid will push around the Dallas O-line and big Jon Kitna headaches all day. Pick: Lions.

Green Bay -3 At Minnesota
DP: Who knows which Minny team will show up? Pick: Packers.

At Cincinnati -5 Buffalo
DP: Just a terrible game, but the Bills play tough so I will take the points and hope for the best. Pick: Bills.

At Jacksonville -2.5 Cleveland
DP: The Jags are the Jekyll and Hyde team of the NFL. They may be 5-4, but only one game (win or loss) has been decided by less than 7 points. That’s a lot of blow-out wins and losses. On the other side, the Browns have been playing hard but have had a brutal schedule (their 6 losses are all to teams with winning records). I like Cleveland’s effort, so I will take the points and hope for the best. Pick: Browns.

At Kansas City -8 Arizona
DP: My crazy man-love for KC has been tested recently, but as we have documented here, Arizona is Fool’s Gold. Pick: Chiefs.

At New Orleans -11.5 Seattle
DP: Seattle may be 2-2 recently and 5-4 over, but their last two wins were over a terrible Arizona team and their last two losses were blow-outs. Seattle does not travel well and the Saints are playing better and know they can’t afford to lose with the Falcons and Bucs playing well. Reggie Bush is back. Pick: Saints.

Atlanta -3 At St. Louis
DP: St Louis is a nice story, but I think their overall lack of depth will hurt them as the year goes on. Pick: Falcons

At San Francisco -3.5 Tampa Bay
DP: It seems odd that the 3-6 team is giving 3.5 to a 6-3 team. Vegas is essentially saying that San Fran is 0.5 points better on a neutral field. I have learned that when Vegas is begging you to go one way, you should always go the other. Pick: 49ers.

At New England -4 Indianapolis
DP: As documented here this week, I think Indy loses 4 in a four. Pick: Pats.

At Philadelphia -3 NY Giants
DP: I think the Giants may have peaked a little early. It feels like one team may catch fire in the NFC late this year and ride a wave of momentum to the SuperBowl. Philly may be that team. Pick: Iggles.

At San Diego -9.5 Denver
DP: The other two Jekyll and Hyde teams this year. Denver can’t run the ball or defend the run, but San Diego is a pass first team. This one should be high scoring, so I will take the points. Pick: Denver.

Week 11 Thursday Night Pick

@Miami -2.5 vs. Chicago

DP: I love the Dolphins in this game.

TJ: Chicago's wins are weak, and I can't see them pulling out a tough one on the road against a full-strength Miami team.  However, Miami's QB situation is seriosly dodgy.  Thigpen looked OK last week, and he's had a few NFL starts back in KC, but he's still a scary bet against the Bears' defense.  I can't back Cutler on the road, though, so give me Miami to win a low-scoring game by a FG.

Week 10 Analysis

Well Juice, I didn’t catch all of the games this weekend, but I did watch a good part of the finishes to the early games. Here are a few random thoughts from Week 10 of the NFL:

(These are the Doc’s thoughts.  I’m commenting on each in BOLD- The Juice)

1.      The Falcons are 5-0 at home and Matt Ryan has only lost at home once as a starter. Several weeks ago I predicted the NFC South winner would have the #1 seed because of favorable scheduling (NFC West and AFC North). The Falcons two toughest games remaining (Packers and Saints) are both at home. If you figure that Philly and the NY Giants will beat each other up and the Bears and Packers will fight it out in the North, I think Atlanta now has a clear path to the #1 seed (Of course I also said Kansas City could start printing tickets to the playoffs).

Are we writing off the Saints in the division, then?  They’re only one game behind, and they have @Baltimore and @Atlanta, but other than those two games, their schedule is cake.  The Bucs are also one game behind Atlanta, and they also have @Baltimore and @NO, plus Atlanta at home, but the rest of their games aren’t too tough.  If I’m putting money on one team to win the division, I’d be with you on Atlanta.  But I don’t think this division race is close to locked up yet, especially since the teams play each other so much.

2.      Its funny, as hard as the Lions have been playing, I thought they had 3 or 4 wins, but its actually 2. Looks like another high pick, especially if Dallas gets their shit together. They may have an interesting decision to make about Stafford. He shows promise but is clearly injury prone. It would be hard to pass up on someone like Andrew Luck.

You make a good point about the Stafford, who’s injuries have been alarming so far, but I’ll be really disappointed if the Lions go for another QB (or if they get retarded again and draft another wide receiver).  Peterson, the LSU CB, or Bowers, the Clemson DE, would make a lot more sense for a team trying to build a solid base for the future.

3.      Meanwhile the Chicago Bears, who have looked terrible since week 3, are somehow 6-3. Go figure.

I have rarely seen an offensive line so vulnerable to the pass rush, or a quarterback with worse instincts for avoiding sacks.  Chicago is scary to watch because they can have disastrous offensive possessions at any given time.  I’m surprised by their record, but when you look at the schedule, they got a win against the Pack when they were super banged-up, and the rest of their wins have been against horrible teams: Detroit, Dallas, Carolina, Buffalo, and Minnesota.  I expect the Packers (whose defense is playing at an elite level) to run away with the NFC North now.

4.      I have to give the Browns credit. The Browns has a tough choice with 1:20 to go in overtime and starting at their own 5-yard line. They could run the ball and settle for the tie or go for it knowing it probably meant the Jets were more likely to win the game than they were. Well they went for it and the Jets did in fact win the game. For a coach struggling to save his job, Eric Mangini might have taken 3-5-1 against one of the top teams in the league and called it a moral victory, but he went for it. Now if only he can teach his secondary to tackle.

I was disgusted by the result, but I, too, agree with the decision.  3-5-1 means there’s virtually no chance at the playoffs, but 4-5 might have left a glimmer of hope.  So, if you’re really trying to do what’s best for your team, you go for it in that situation.  Mangini put his job security even more on the line to do what’s best for his team.  I really hope we keep Mangini for another year, even if we don’t win a single game for the rest of the season.  A new coach wouldn’t help anything right now, but showing some confidence in Mangini just might reveal a coach that could last for a while.

5.      I wish I could gamble on the Colts losing the next four in a row (@New England, Chargers, @Titans). Manning has been holding things together, but this team is hanging by a thread. I think they will catch these 4 teams right as they are heating up. I can see 6-7 on the horizon.

Any other team in this situation, and I’d agree whole-heartedly, but the Colts are a bit like their pistol namesake, the Colt revolver.  It was one of the first hand-guns assembled in a factory with interchangeable parts, making it very easy to repair and rebuild.  This team, I think because of good coaching, a good system, and an unbelievable leader and on-field coach in Peyton Manning, seems to be able to replace superstars like TE Dallas Clark with unknowns like Tamme and never miss a beat.  Doc, I’ll take your 0-4 bet any time.  I think 8-5 or 9-4 is much more likely.

6.      I really like the Titans remaining schedule (Wash, Houston X2, Indy X2, Jax, @KC). All of those teams are struggling right now and I think they do no worse than 10-6 and third seed.

I think we can count Houston out as a serious contender, and I’ve never liked Jacksonville, Washington, or KC, so I think the Titans have a great shot at the playoffs.  I still think they’ll finish second to Indy in the division, but they should be able to compete with Pitt/Balt and Pats/Jets for a Wild Card.

7.      Colin Cowherd thought Andrew Luck would slide to the Redskins. He’s nuts. He would never make it past Carolina unless Jimmy Claussen’s 53.8 QB rating does it for you.

I agree with you, but as usual, I hate the pick.  A new QB won’t solve Carolina’s myriad problems.  They need to rebuild on both sides of the ball, and that starts with linemen and linebackers.  Luck will probably go #1, though, to Buffalo, Carolina, Detroit, or whatever crappily-run franchise finishes last.

8.      I believe the Texans collapse was predicted here several weeks ago. They are 4-5 and looking at @Jets, Titans, @Eagles, Ravens, Titans. Ouch.

As I said above, I’m not down with the Texans anymore.  They had a chance to end the Cowboys season and put themselves on the fast-track to the playoffs in Week 3, and they fell apart mentally.  I don’t know exactly what’s wrong with this team, because they seem talented on paper and their run game has shown flashes of brilliance.  There’s something missing, maybe mental toughness, and I see no way for them to win even three of their next five games.  1-4 or 0-5 seem much more likely.

9.      Would you like to know how delusional Cowboy fans are? I have been back in town 1 day and have had MULTIPLE people tell they think the ‘Boys will win 8 straight and make the playoffs at 9-7. That means they have to beat Saints, @Colts, and Eagles X2 plus Lions, Redskins, and Cards.

Grandpa Wade sucked, there’s no doubt, but there are many more problems with this team than simply a poor head coach.  An aging and weak offensive line, a below-average defense, and the 31^st-ranked running game in the league are just a few.  I think the absolute ceiling for this Cowboys team is 7-9, and 5-11 is much more likely.

10.  As The Juice noted here earlier, the Cards are really bad and are lucky to have 3 wins. The Seahawks now lead the NFC West at 5-4, one game ahead of the Rams (4-5) and two ahead of the Cards (3-6) and the 49ers (3-6). The ‘Hawks still have three road games (@Saints, @49ers, @Bucs) plus the Falcons and Chiefs at home. I think a 7-9 division winner is still in play!

In play: yes.  Likely: no.  One of these teams will hit a decent streak, or at least catch a couple good opponents on bad days (like the Cardinals’ win over the Saints).  Also, the Seahawks are unpredictable, and have a great home field.  They could easily beat KC at home, and it might not be a cakewalk for the Falcons.

11.  I am really looking forward to Raiders-Steelers this weekend much more than the Colts and Pats. It might be fatigue from a decade of games now, but it would be really nice if the Colts and Pats could go just one year without playing each other.

Raiders-Steelers should be a lot of fun, if only for all the 1970’s highlights we should see on the pregame shows.  Can the Raiders keep up this run of theirs?  I doubt it.  I think the Steelers’ defense winds up shutting them down.  As I said above, I think the Colts are still very dangerous, and they should play the Pats very hard.  I’m excited about both games.

12.  Philly has intrigued me all season with incredible speed at almost every skill position. ESPN is reporting the Eagles will re-sign (or Franchise tag) Vick to keep him. I guess that makes sense. Keep Vick and trade Kolb instead of losing Vick for nothing.

Vick hasn’t let up yet, and if keeps playing at such an unbelievable level, the Eagles would be crazy to let him go.  Pairing him with DeSean Jackson is just so scary to watch.  No defense has the speed to handle them both.  Kolb is unproven, but might still be worth something on the open market.  Maybe they could use him to pick up a veteran to shore up the defense and make a real run at the Superbowl next year.  Heck, I’m far from ruling them out of a championship run this season.

Week 10 picks

@Indy -7 Cincy
TJ: Look, Cincy really hasn’t played that badly (their point differential is only -23), and 5 of their 6 losses are by 8 points or less. Everybody is killing Palmer, but in a league with so many rookies and proven failures playing stopgap QB, he’s probably in the top half of all the starters. So why do I hate this team so much? Don’t know, but even without Austin Collie, I expect Peyton and his boys to stomp on the Bengals at home, and cover this spread with ease.
DP: Indy.

@Jacksonville -1.5 Houston
TJ: Houston can’t stop the pass at all, but the Jags are ranked 28th in the league in passing yardage. But Houston’s run game is phenomenal, and the Jags defense is poor against both the run and pass. Both teams are 4-4, but the Texans seem like a much better team (maybe as a hangover from that incredible Week 1 win over the Colts). I don’t really like either of these teams, but I’m going with my gut and taking Houston.
DP: Houston.

Tennessee -2 @Miami
TJ: The Titans are a strong team, and they’re in the middle of a playoff push, so they have a lot to play for. Maybe the addition of Moss doesn’t turn them into a pass-happy scoring machine, but I think they’re too well-coached and well-put-together to let it hurt their team chemistry, so I think it’s no change at worst. Miami’s showing some desperation with the switch to Pennington, but I don’t think it’ll be enough to make up for aging running backs and a lack of cohesion. I’ll take the Titans to cover for a tough road win and another step toward a Wild Card spot.
DP: Tenn.

Minnesota -1 @Chicago
TJ: Minnesota has 99 problems but the Bears ain’t one. They’ll win big in Chicago (the over/under for sacks by Jared Allen in this game should be 6.5), but I see a final season-ending injury for Favre looming in this game or next week against Green Bay. Then it’s bye bye to Chilli, and the recruitment of Michael Vick and John Gruden begins.
DP: Minn.

@Buffalo -2.5 Detroit
TJ: Detroit was looking so frisky before Matthew Stafford went down. Then they blew the Jets game and have to travel to Buffalo feeling demoralized. The Bills have nothing going for them, but they have to win a game this year, right? And a home game against a banged-up Lions team seems like their best chance to me. Buffalo covers with a field goal in a low-scoring mess of a game.
DP: Detroit.

Jets -3 @Cleveland
TJ: Cleveland has come a long way, and the Jets’ offense is struggling mightily. Nothing cures a quarterback’s ills quicker than a game against Cleveland’s secondary, though, and I expect Sanchez to take advantage. I also think that Jets defense will be able to hurry McCoy and put an end to my man-crush on Peyton Hillis. My heart bleeds for the home dog (pound) in this game, but I have to go with my head and take the Jets to cover the three points.
DP: Jets.

@Tampa Bay -6.5 Carolina
TJ: It Tampa Bay is even decent, they’ll blow out this horrible Carolina team at home. And I think they’re decent. Bucs cover.
DP: Tampa.

KC -1 @Denver
TJ: Playing in Denver can be tough, but pitting the league’s number 1 rushing offense against the league’s 31st-ranked rushing defense means a pounding, no matter where you’re playing the game. Besides, I think this Denver team has given up on their coach, and they know, even with their easy schedule, at 2-6, they don’t have a shot at the playoffs. KC gets the road win and moves one step closer to a first-round playoff loss.
DP:KC.

@San Fran -6 St. Louis
TJ: San Fran is favored by 6 in this game? I know they’re coming off a bye, but remember: they lost in Carolina two weeks ago and then won a crappy game against a bad Denver team in London. Meanwhile, the Rams are 4-4, and a win here would keep them in the division race. Getting six points is too tempting. I’m taking the Rams here.
DP: San Fran

@Arizona -3 Seattle
TJ: Another perplexing line to me. I’m no Seattle fan, but the Cards stink in every aspect of the game except turnover ratio, and I discussed my feelings on that bullshit in five questions this week. Seattle is 4-4, but their last two losses were to surging Raiders and Giants teams. Admittedly, they were BAD losses, but I still think they’re better that the Cards. I’ll take Seattle to pick up a crucial road win, and continue their race toward an 8-8 division championship season.
DP: Seattle.

@Giants -13.5 Dallas
TJ: The Giants have been smoking fools lately (average margin of victory over the last 5 games: 17.2), and this Cowboys team has done nothing but get smoked (average margin of defeat over the last 5 games: 14.4). Sending Grandpa Wade to the Sunny Valley Retirement Complex to play Bingo and shit himself isn’t enough to turn things around. I’ll lay the points and enjoy watching Jason Garrett’s head explode in high definition.
DP: Giants.

@Pittsburgh -4.5 New England
TJ: I’ve heard this start from Mike and Mike and from John Clayton, but since Moss left, Brady’s completion percentage has gone from 70% to 58%. The Pats are doing a decent job of running the ball, but the Steelers have the best rush defense in the league, so all the pressure will be on Brady and his injured foot. The Steelers look like clear favorites here. But after struggling with the Bengals, I don’t know if they’re really all there offensively. I see Big Ben throwing a few costly pick and the Pats playing hard after an embarrassing loss to my Brownies. I’ll take the points and the Pats here.
DP: New England. Feels like a 3 point game.

Philly -3 @Washington
TJ: What a great Monday Night game for the media. They love anything having to do with Vick, and the Shannahan/McNabb feud has Peter King creaming his jeans. I think Philly’s the better team by a wide margin, and they’ve proven the can win on the road (3-1). Washington won the last meeting by 5 points, but Kevin Kolb played most of that game for Philly, and I think they’re a different team with a healthy Vick under center. If the ‘Skins win this game, both teams are still in the hunt for the playoffs, but if the Eagles win, they take clear possession of second in the division and keep the heat on the Giants, and DC goes into a tailspin. That’s exactly what I see happening. Pick: Philly.
DP: Philly.