Week 11 Picks

At Pittsburgh -7.5 Oakland-
DP: Oakland may have won three in a West, but I don’t like their chances to go across the country and face an angry Pitt team. Pick: Steelers.

At NY Jets -6.5 Houston-
DP: I think the Houston free fall continues, but the Jets are only 2-2 at home and have not won by more than 6 points in their last 4 games. I think the Texans keep it close. Pick: Texans.

Baltimore -11.5 At Carolina
DP: These are the types of games I hate to bet on, because Baltimore has no incentive to run up the score to cover. I will go with the Ravens because I think Carolina may have quit on their coach and they are starting a stay-at-home at QB this week, so I am not sure how many points they can score.

At Tennessee -7 Washington
DP: Both teams are struggling a bit with Tenn losing 2 in a row and Washington losing 3 out of 4. Washington is coming off a short week and has to travel, but 7 is a big number to cover and (with the exception of last week) the Redskins do play a lot of close games. Pick: Redskins.

At Dallas -6 Detroit
DP: This is a match up of the two traditional Thanksgiving Day game hosts. Since teams are 2-7, it will ensure that 2-8 and 3-7 teams are featured on National TV for a Thanksgiving audience. Maybe its time to reconsider Thanksgiving scheduling and spread the wealth a little? As for the game, I have had crazy man-love for Detroit all season. They are 2-7, but have lost by more than 6 only twice. I think the Suh kid will push around the Dallas O-line and big Jon Kitna headaches all day. Pick: Lions.

Green Bay -3 At Minnesota
DP: Who knows which Minny team will show up? Pick: Packers.

At Cincinnati -5 Buffalo
DP: Just a terrible game, but the Bills play tough so I will take the points and hope for the best. Pick: Bills.

At Jacksonville -2.5 Cleveland
DP: The Jags are the Jekyll and Hyde team of the NFL. They may be 5-4, but only one game (win or loss) has been decided by less than 7 points. That’s a lot of blow-out wins and losses. On the other side, the Browns have been playing hard but have had a brutal schedule (their 6 losses are all to teams with winning records). I like Cleveland’s effort, so I will take the points and hope for the best. Pick: Browns.

At Kansas City -8 Arizona
DP: My crazy man-love for KC has been tested recently, but as we have documented here, Arizona is Fool’s Gold. Pick: Chiefs.

At New Orleans -11.5 Seattle
DP: Seattle may be 2-2 recently and 5-4 over, but their last two wins were over a terrible Arizona team and their last two losses were blow-outs. Seattle does not travel well and the Saints are playing better and know they can’t afford to lose with the Falcons and Bucs playing well. Reggie Bush is back. Pick: Saints.

Atlanta -3 At St. Louis
DP: St Louis is a nice story, but I think their overall lack of depth will hurt them as the year goes on. Pick: Falcons

At San Francisco -3.5 Tampa Bay
DP: It seems odd that the 3-6 team is giving 3.5 to a 6-3 team. Vegas is essentially saying that San Fran is 0.5 points better on a neutral field. I have learned that when Vegas is begging you to go one way, you should always go the other. Pick: 49ers.

At New England -4 Indianapolis
DP: As documented here this week, I think Indy loses 4 in a four. Pick: Pats.

At Philadelphia -3 NY Giants
DP: I think the Giants may have peaked a little early. It feels like one team may catch fire in the NFC late this year and ride a wave of momentum to the SuperBowl. Philly may be that team. Pick: Iggles.

At San Diego -9.5 Denver
DP: The other two Jekyll and Hyde teams this year. Denver can’t run the ball or defend the run, but San Diego is a pass first team. This one should be high scoring, so I will take the points. Pick: Denver.