Week 11 Recap

Bears 16-0 @Dolphins
TJ: I wasn’t too high on the Bears before this game, and the Doc and I have thought highly of Miami all season, so I was a bit surprised to see a shutout here. Why do the ‘Phins suck so much at home (1-4)? And why the vanilla offense? I know they’re injured and down to their 3rd QB, but isn’t that all the more reason to use some of the weird sets and option stuff that was so successful last year? Can’t figure them out. The Bears still aren’t a real contender, but at 7-3, they should easily get a wild card and get crushed in the first (unless they draw the NFC West winner!).
DP: I agree with The Juice on all of his points. I guess I was blinded by my love of Tyler Thigpen after he carried me a Fantasy title a couple of years back when my #1 QB (Tom Brady) went down early. At 5-5, it will be very difficult to get to 10-6; which is probably what you need in the AFC this year to get a wild-card.

@Jaguars 24-20 Browns
TJ: Well, my Brownies just can’t seem to win the close ones (5 of 7 losses by less than a TD, only one win by less than 13). They have no passing game and a porous defense. I still think they should kill Carolina this week, and I hope they can put together a few wins to save Mangini’s job. I don’t think another coach is the answer right now. The Jags still aren’t good, but with Tennessee’s immanent collapse and Indy’s injuries, their prospects are on the rise. With TENN, OAK, WASH, and HOU still on the schedule, they have a legit shot at ten wins.
DP: I think Mangini’s job is safe. As Peter King pointed out on PTI yesterday, teams don’t wanted to pay both a fired coach and an expensive new coach if there is a lock-out, so a lot of teams will be more willing to keep a coach they are luke-warm on. As a Colts fan (and someone who believes the Colts WILL LOSE THE NEXT 3 GAMES), I think you might be right about the Jags. They might just sneak into the play-offs with 10 wins. Brrrrr. That was me shuddering at the thought.

Bills 49-31 @Bengals
TJ: The Bills are on a win streak!!! Fitzpatrick threw 4 TDs! They can run the ball! They pitched a shutout in the second half! Oh, wait, it was the Bengals? Big fucking deal.
DP: Umm, who cares?

@Cowboys 35-19 Lions
TJ: Even if they run the table, the Cowboys can’t make the playoffs, can they? I mean, at 9-7? There are three non-division-leading 7-3 teams in the NFC (and one 6-4), so they’d require a TON of help to catch an opening. Plus, they still have the Saints tomorrow, @Indy, and Philly twice. No way they win all of those. The Lions are still scrappy. Their next three games are at home against NE, CHI, and GB. I expect them to win one of those and maybe screw up one of the division races in the process.
DP: Weird game that turned on two weird plays: the punt return for a TD as the Lions were trying to down the ball inside the 10 yard line and the ‘Horse collar’ tackle that was actually all hair. Like the Bengals, the Lions seem to invent new ways to lose games. God knows what would happen if they played each other. I have had to listen to the Cowboy fans all week. Basically they need to run the table and hope that Philly goes to 9-7 and the Giants go to 8-8. The Cowboys play Philly twice, so that’s 2 losses. That means Philly would have to loss 2 more out of Bears, Texans, Giants, and Vikings. I don’t think that is gonna happen.

Redskins 19-6 @Titans
TJ: Doc, what’s going on with Vince Young? Think all that suicide watch stuff from a couple years back was legit? Think this guy’s genuinely unstable? Or is Fisher a demanding control freak who finally drove a good young QB to the edge? The latest is that they won’t even let Young attend team meetings. The owner says both Young and Fisher will be back next year, but that seems unlikely to me. The Titans’ season probably over, even though Indy looks vulnerable and the Jags are pretenders. Meanwhile, the ‘Skins are done as well, especially since Philly and the Giants are looking so good. What sort of retarded free-agent signings does Daniel Snyder have in the queue for this offseason? Is Keyshawn still available?
DP: Well Juice, for a long time I thought Vince Young was gay and all of the crazy, histrionics were a result of him struggling to be a team leader while hiding his true lifestyle. Then there was the Strip Club incident in Dallas last year where he took a swing at a guy who insulted U of Texas, so either he is actually straight and crazy or it was staged. I am like 50-50 on this. As for Jeff Fischer, I think he doesn’t like Young and never wanted him, but he was forced into it by the owner. Now he is fucking with Young in some kind of power struggle with the owner where either Bud Adams backs down or fires him so he can move on to a higher paying job. Personally, I think Fischer should move on and go to the NFC where he would be much more likely to win a Superbowl.

@Chiefs 31-13 Cardinals
TJ: Playing the Cardinals: a great way for a sliding team to get a much needed win since 1988 (three winning seasons in 23 years). The Chiefs have a one-game lead in the division with an easy schedule. With the Raiders (re-)exposed as pretenders, only the Chargers pose a threat. The December 12th game in San Diego could decide the division.
DP: Yeah, I am really worried that my Chiefs pick is in real jeopardy now. The Chargers look pretty good and, if they can get by the Colts this weekend, the rest of their schedule is soft (Oakland, KC, San Fran, @Cincy, @Denver). They may not lose again. The Chiefs really need to beat San Diego again and sweep the season match-up; which would effectively give them a 2 game lead.

Packers 31-3 @Vikings
TJ: Wow, the Vikes have really fallen apart. Looks like the Chillidog got fired a couple weeks too late. With the way the defense is playing, Favre is actually the least of the Vikings problems. The Pack seem to have gotten their shit together. They’ve won four in a row by a combined score of 113-34. They’re a much better team than the Bears, and if they beat Atlanta this week, they should cruise into the playoffs.
DP: What the Juice is failing to tell our loyal readers is that we placed a beer bet on the final records of the Packers and Vikings before the season started. I think I have pretty much locked up a sweet, sweet victory in that one.

@Jets 30-27 Texans
TJ: The Texans are the biggest dick-teases in the league. Every year, they look like they’re ready to make a playoff run. Every year, they blow the fuck up. They’ve lost four in a row, their defense is horrendous, and with guaranteed losses against Philly and Baltimore still on the schedule, the playoffs are impossible. They still have Tennessee twice, so they can at least take pleasure in ending the Titans’ hopes as well. The Jets are 8-2, but they’ve played like a 5-5 team for the last few weeks. A shutout loss to the Pack and three super-close victories against bad teams (CLE, DET, and HOU) is not going to convince me the Jets are super-bowl bound. They better kill the Bengals this week, then be ready to prove their worth in a Monday Night showdown against the Pats in two weeks.
DP: I agree with the Juice that the Jets have not played like an 8-2, so how the hell do you handicap Jets -9 vs. Bengals? The Bengals have been even worse. I think I’ll go with the Jets on this one, but I don’t feel great about it. A lot of interesting games coming up (Jets-Pats, Ravens-Steelers, Chiefs-Chargers), I think I really like the heavy load of late season intra-division games. It gives the NFL sort of a college feel where the rivalry games are always at the end of the season.

@Steelers 35-3 Raiders
TJ: There’s that Raiders team we all know and love! Where have you guys been the last couple weeks? This was a defensive clinic from the Steelers: 61 yds rushing, 121 yds passing, 2INTs, 3 forced fumbles, 6 sacks, and 3 points allowed. Those are fucking Steel Curtain 1975-type numbers. The Raiders aren’t out of the division hunt completely, but I think they just showed that if they can miraculously make the playoffs, they’re going to get smoked like a ham-hock in the first round. The Steelers are good. They’re game at Baltimore in two weeks should be a battle.
DP: I can’t believe the Pats have the Raiders #1 this year. Hopefully, they can put together a few more wins and knock the pick down a little more.

Ravens 37-13 @Panthers
TJ: I’m surprised the Panthers scored 13 points. Who the fuck is Brian St. Pierre? He sounds more like the UFC middleweight champion than a starting NFL QB. The Ravens have 7 wins, and still have Houston, Cincy, and Cleveland on the schedule, so they’re probably going to fight Pittsburgh for the division.
DP: Carolina is the worst team in football right now. They still @Browns and Cards on the schedule, but no way they get above 3 wins. Personally, I would put my money on 2-14 and the top pick.

Falcons 34-17 @Rams
TJ: Said it in previous weeks: the Rams need another year or two. The Falcons, on the other hand, look like the real deal. They haven’t lost at home this season. That’s key, because their toughest remaining game may be home against the Pack this week. If they win that one, look for them to lock up home-field for the playoffs (they have another home game against the Saints, but a soft remaining schedule that includes Carolina twice).
DP: The Rams are 0-4 on the road and their next 3 are away from St. Louis. Still, even 4 wins is a success for them. We’ll see about the Falcons in the coming weeks. The top seed in the NFC is theirs to take, but have they taken ‘The Leap’.

@Saints 34-19 Seahawks
TJ: No surprise here: the Saints are back on track, and the Seahawks are another NFC West dud who can’t win on the road. 4TDs for Drew Brees, two of them to Marquise Colston – sounds like the 2009 Saints to me! They probably can’t catch Atlanta for the division (road games against Dallas tomorrow, and Baltimore and Atlanta coming up), but they should easily take a Wild Card spot and be poised to make noise in January.
DP: Once again another game where we expose a fraud and learn nothing about a contender (see Pitt v. Oak, Ravens v. Panthers, Falcons v. Rams). Let’s just keep moving. At least the Saints v Cowboys game has a little juice to it now. Should be a great game!

Bucs 21-0 @49ers
TJ: I think this game says more about how much the 49ers suck than how good Tampa is (the Bucs are a good team that always takes care of business against weaker opponents, a hallmark of good coaching, and they’re going to get better). The 49ers need to tear it down a rebuild AGAIN, and that’s not good (they haven’t had a winning season since 2002). Troy Smith didn’t pass as well this game, but he showed some mobility, and he can’t be ruled out as the long-term answer at QB. We’ll know a lot more about him after the Arizona game this week: if he can’t put up numbers against the Cards defense, he’s a bust).
DP: I should have gone with my gut on this one. The 49ers may be terrible at 3-7, but they are only 2 GAMES BACK. If they can sweep Arizona (and there is no reason to believe this won’t happen) and win @Seattle (not easy but possible) that would get them to 6 wins. If 7-9 wins the West, then they would just need to win @Packers, @Chargers, or @Rams. The Bucs still have @Ravens, Falcons, and @Saints, but 10-6 and a wild-card is not out of the question.

@Pats 31-28 Colts
TJ: Tough loss for the Colts, who hung in there in spite of an uncharacteristic suck-fest by Peyton. With the Titans looking shaky and the Texans already looking forward to the draft, the Colts can still feel good about their chances to win the division. Man, looking back, in the first few weeks of the season, I thought the AFC South might be the best division in the NFL. Now, only the West divisions look more troubled. The Pats are doing everything good teams are supposed to do. I think they’ll beat the Jets at home on Monday night in two weeks, but the real test might be against Green Bay at home in December. Either way, the Pats are a playoff team, for sure.
DP: Once again this the worst possible scenario for me. I pick against the Colts, but they cover the spread in the loss, so I don’t even get the gambling credit. I don’t think I can bring myself to watch the Chargers game this weekend. This could get ugly.

@Eagles 27-17 Giants
TJ: Yeah, so Vick had his worst game of the season, and his QB rating was 83. That’s nuts. He still doesn’t have a single fucking INT! This team has crazy speed and a good defense. They’re built differently from any other contender, which makes them hard to game-plan against. If they can hold it together and make the playoffs healthy and with a first-round bye, they could be incredibly dangerous. The Giants are a good team, but I have them behind Philly, GB, and Atlanta for sure, and the Saints may be able to turn it on as well. In other words, I don’t expect the Giants to make the NFC Championship, let alone the superbowl.
DP: I agree with The Juice once again. I think a Philly-Atlanta NFC title is very likely with only Green Bay and the Saints even having a chance to crash the party.

@Chargers 35-14 Broncos
TJ: The Broncos hanging 49 on the Chiefs last week was just an aberration. This team stinks, and I don’t know how they’re going to fix it. The defense is the biggest problem, but I don’t like their O-line either, and I can’t imagine Kyle Orton is the long-term answer at QB. Most of all, their coach is a douche-bag, and I think he belongs more as an assistant to Lane Kiffin at USC than as a head-coach in the NFL. The Chargers have the schedule and the offense to make a run at the AFC West, but I still think coach Norv will fuck it up before it’s all over. Rivers is putting up some amazing stats, but with their schedule, and always playing from behind, I think Brees, Peyton, or Brady could throw for 7,000 yards in a season under the same circumstances. My point: Rivers is NOT the MVP.
DP: NOTE TO THE JUICE: when Michael Vick is your chief competition, then you are the MVP. Still I will agree that I see the Pats going 12-4 and winning the AFC. In that case, I see Brady getting back into the race and winning a close vote.