Chicago -3 At Buffalo (in Toronto)
DP: This one has the feel of a trap game to me. Buffalo has been playing tougher lately and Chicago is reeling having lost 3 of 4 (only win at Carolina). What the hell. Pick: Buffalo.
TJ: It’s not a real home game, Buffalo is actually playing on the road! Yeah, that’s true, but Buffalo hasn’t won at home this year, anyway. I’m tempted to go with the Doc on this one, especially since Buffalo took KC to OT on the road last week, but I won’t get sucked in. The Bears get a few turnovers and some good special teams play (maybe a Devin Hester TD?) and win by 10 or more.
San Diego -3 At Houston
DP: It’s weird to see a 3-5 road team get 3 points against a 4-3 team at home. It’s also weird to see a 3-5 team with the top Offense and the second-ranked Defense. But that is San Diego 2010. The line must be based on the prolific San Diego passing offense going against a weak Houston secondary. Plus, Houston is on a short week. Still, I don’t like San Diego traveling (0-4 away) and the Chargers are a bit banged up. I don’t think Houston folds yet. I’ll take the home team and the points. Pick: Houston.
TJ: I wish I didn’t have to pick this game because I don’t feel any confidence in either team. Houston’s run game is so schizophrenic, I don’t know what to expect (Arian Foster has averaged under 4 yards per carry in three games, and over 6 yards in the other four, ranging from 25 yards to 231 yards rushing in a single game). The Texans D has only forced 6 turnovers all year, and with San Diego’s offense, they’ll need turnovers to keep up. I don’t like SD on the road (0-4), but I have to take them in this game, even giving up three points.
New Orleans -6.5 At Carolina
DP: Last time these two played it was a close game and NO failed to cover. After the big win over Pitt, I guess people assume the high-flying Saints are back. The Saints are still banged up though and I expect a bit of let down after the big win and before the Bye. Carolina is familiar with New Orleans and I don’t think they will be tricked. Look for the Panthers to keep it close. Pick: Carolina.
TJ: I like all of the Doc’s logic. But I hate Carolina more. Saints win big and cover easily.
At Minnesota -8 Arizona
DP: Wow, I know Arizona is bad, but 8 is a lot of points to cover. I’ll take the points and hope for a late cover. Pick: Cards.
TJ: I’m not sure Minnesota has much left to play for. Favre is hurt and embarrassed, Childress has lost the team (there are rumors that the owner considered firing him instead of waiving Moss), and the Packers are rounding into shape. The question is, do their vets, like Jared Allen, still have pride? Arizona stinks, and I don’t like them on the road, so if Minnesota still has anything in the tank, they’ll win this game by a ton. I’m betting they do: I’ll take the Vikes.
At Atlanta -8.5 Tampa Bay
DP: Atlanta is coming off a Bye, but I think that hurts them a little. Tampa is in the division, so its not like they needed a lot of extra time to get ready. Plus they have a huge showdown with Baltimore next week, so they may be looking ahead a little. Tampa is +8 in turnovers, so I don’t think they will give Atlanta a short field to score easily. Pick: Bucs.
TJ: Doc, I think that +8 turnover stat is important for the opposite reason. I think it means they’ve been lucky this year and are playing above their potential. I expect them to come back down to earth this week and get toasted by Atlanta. I’ll lay the points and take the Birds.
NY Jets -4 At Detroit
DP: The Jets are a hard to team to figure out. Nice wins against the Pats, Dolphins, and Vikings, but they struggled to beat Denver and lost at home to Green Bay. Detroit is certainly frisky, but I am not sure they are consistent enough to put together back to back wins against a good team. I think the Jets will be focused after an embarrassing loss. Pick: Jets.
TJ: Is this line for real? The Jets should kill the Lions, even on the road, especially after the embarrassing offensive performance they had last week. Their defense is still elite, and I expect them to score readily against Detroit, in spite of the monstrous play of Suh at DT. I’ll take the Jets, please.
At Baltimore -5.5 Miami
DP: The Dolphins lose to disciplined teams and beat teams that make mistakes. The Ravens should be focused coming off a BYE and know they can’t slip up. Pick: Ravens.
TJ: I still can’t get over my disappointment with the Dolphins’ vanilla offense this year. Do they think Chad Henne is a great pocket QB who needs to develop? They need to watch more Michigan game tape. The Ravens are better than they’ve been playing lately (they should not have need OT to beat the Bills), but I expect them to play well coming off the bye week. I’ll take the Ravens to cover at home.
New England -4.5 At Cleveland
DP: Not much to say here. Pick: New England.
TJ: Jesus, this line should be much higher. The Pats will shred my poor Brownies’ pass defense, and I fully expect McCoy to throw no less than four picks against Belicheck’s defense. New England breaks my heart and covers easily.
NY Giants -7 At Seattle
DP: This one just feels like a trap game. I know Seattle is starting a new QB against a tough Giants pass rush, but I think it will make it harder for them to prepare without a lot of game tape. I like Seattle to keep it close at home. Pick: Seattle.
TJ: Seattle plays well at home, and I think the Giants have gotten a bit overrated lately. But New York has one of the best defenses in the league, and Seattle only scored 3 points against Oakland last week. I expect the Giants to win, and win big. NYG to cover.
At Oakland -2.5 Kansas City
DP: Two weeks ago the Raiders lost to the 49ers and were a hopeless 2-4. Now after two big wins they are 4-4 and everyone is asking if “The Raiders are Back?” That’s the NFL in 2010. Every team in the league except Buff, Carolina, and Cleveland is saying to themselves “if we can win the next two weeks we are right back in it.” Pick: Chiefs.
TJ: I still think the Chiefs are overrated, and though I’m not as high on the Raiders as everybody else, I still like them to beat KC at home by a field goal or more. Pick: Oakland.
At Philadelphia -3 Indianapolis
DP: As a Colts fan, this one has scared me for a long time. I am not sure we can handle that much speed in the secondary. This one feels like Vegas is begging you to take the Colts. I have learned to go the other way. Pick: Eagles.
TJ: I think Vick will try to do too much in his first game back. The Colts feel no pressure (I know the AFC South is still close, but they know they’ll win the division), and they will scheme the Eagles with patience and a surprisingly decent rin game (Mike Hart went to Michigan, so I’m a little partial to him). I’ll take the Colts and the points.
At Green Bay -7.5 Dallas
DP: Everyone is expecting Dallas to put it together and play tough again, but I am here to tell you they have quit. I’ll keep going against the ‘Boys until they show some pride. Pick: Green Bay.
TJ: I’m with the Doc 100% on this one. I think the Pack has shown signs of life, and they know the division is theirs for the taking. The Cowboys stink, and they’re already looking forward to playing for Cowher or Gruden next year. I’ll take the Pack.
Pittsburgh -5 At Cincinnati
DP: Like Dallas, I’ll keep picking against Cincy until they show me something. Pick: Steelers.
TJ: I never liked Cincy this year, and I expect the Steelers to bounce back from that loss to the Saints (who I think are an excellent team). They should score easily on Cincy’s D, and I expect their defense to really get after Carson Palmer. Big Ben should be reaching his comfort zone soon, and Cincy seems like an easy team to do that against. I’ll take the Steelers to cover.
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