Well Juice, I didn’t catch all of the games this weekend, but I did watch a good part of the finishes to the early games. Here are a few random thoughts from Week 10 of the NFL:
(These are the Doc’s thoughts. I’m commenting on each in BOLD- The Juice)
1. The Falcons are 5-0 at home and Matt Ryan has only lost at home once as a starter. Several weeks ago I predicted the NFC South winner would have the #1 seed because of favorable scheduling (NFC West and AFC North). The Falcons two toughest games remaining (Packers and Saints) are both at home. If you figure that Philly and the NY Giants will beat each other up and the Bears and Packers will fight it out in the North, I think Atlanta now has a clear path to the #1 seed (Of course I also said Kansas City could start printing tickets to the playoffs).
Are we writing off the Saints in the division, then? They’re only one game behind, and they have @Baltimore and @Atlanta, but other than those two games, their schedule is cake. The Bucs are also one game behind Atlanta, and they also have @Baltimore and @NO, plus Atlanta at home, but the rest of their games aren’t too tough. If I’m putting money on one team to win the division, I’d be with you on Atlanta. But I don’t think this division race is close to locked up yet, especially since the teams play each other so much.
2. Its funny, as hard as the Lions have been playing, I thought they had 3 or 4 wins, but its actually 2. Looks like another high pick, especially if Dallas gets their shit together. They may have an interesting decision to make about Stafford. He shows promise but is clearly injury prone. It would be hard to pass up on someone like Andrew Luck.
You make a good point about the Stafford, who’s injuries have been alarming so far, but I’ll be really disappointed if the Lions go for another QB (or if they get retarded again and draft another wide receiver). Peterson, the LSU CB, or Bowers, the Clemson DE, would make a lot more sense for a team trying to build a solid base for the future.
3. Meanwhile the Chicago Bears, who have looked terrible since week 3, are somehow 6-3. Go figure.
I have rarely seen an offensive line so vulnerable to the pass rush, or a quarterback with worse instincts for avoiding sacks. Chicago is scary to watch because they can have disastrous offensive possessions at any given time. I’m surprised by their record, but when you look at the schedule, they got a win against the Pack when they were super banged-up, and the rest of their wins have been against horrible teams: Detroit, Dallas, Carolina, Buffalo, and Minnesota. I expect the Packers (whose defense is playing at an elite level) to run away with the NFC North now.
4. I have to give the Browns credit. The Browns has a tough choice with 1:20 to go in overtime and starting at their own 5-yard line. They could run the ball and settle for the tie or go for it knowing it probably meant the Jets were more likely to win the game than they were. Well they went for it and the Jets did in fact win the game. For a coach struggling to save his job, Eric Mangini might have taken 3-5-1 against one of the top teams in the league and called it a moral victory, but he went for it. Now if only he can teach his secondary to tackle.
I was disgusted by the result, but I, too, agree with the decision. 3-5-1 means there’s virtually no chance at the playoffs, but 4-5 might have left a glimmer of hope. So, if you’re really trying to do what’s best for your team, you go for it in that situation. Mangini put his job security even more on the line to do what’s best for his team. I really hope we keep Mangini for another year, even if we don’t win a single game for the rest of the season. A new coach wouldn’t help anything right now, but showing some confidence in Mangini just might reveal a coach that could last for a while.
5. I wish I could gamble on the Colts losing the next four in a row (@New England, Chargers, @Titans). Manning has been holding things together, but this team is hanging by a thread. I think they will catch these 4 teams right as they are heating up. I can see 6-7 on the horizon.
Any other team in this situation, and I’d agree whole-heartedly, but the Colts are a bit like their pistol namesake, the Colt revolver. It was one of the first hand-guns assembled in a factory with interchangeable parts, making it very easy to repair and rebuild. This team, I think because of good coaching, a good system, and an unbelievable leader and on-field coach in Peyton Manning, seems to be able to replace superstars like TE Dallas Clark with unknowns like Tamme and never miss a beat. Doc, I’ll take your 0-4 bet any time. I think 8-5 or 9-4 is much more likely.
6. I really like the Titans remaining schedule (Wash, Houston X2, Indy X2, Jax, @KC). All of those teams are struggling right now and I think they do no worse than 10-6 and third seed.
I think we can count Houston out as a serious contender, and I’ve never liked Jacksonville, Washington, or KC, so I think the Titans have a great shot at the playoffs. I still think they’ll finish second to Indy in the division, but they should be able to compete with Pitt/Balt and Pats/Jets for a Wild Card.
7. Colin Cowherd thought Andrew Luck would slide to the Redskins. He’s nuts. He would never make it past Carolina unless Jimmy Claussen’s 53.8 QB rating does it for you.
I agree with you, but as usual, I hate the pick. A new QB won’t solve Carolina’s myriad problems. They need to rebuild on both sides of the ball, and that starts with linemen and linebackers. Luck will probably go #1, though, to Buffalo, Carolina, Detroit, or whatever crappily-run franchise finishes last.
8. I believe the Texans collapse was predicted here several weeks ago. They are 4-5 and looking at @Jets, Titans, @Eagles, Ravens, Titans. Ouch.
As I said above, I’m not down with the Texans anymore. They had a chance to end the Cowboys season and put themselves on the fast-track to the playoffs in Week 3, and they fell apart mentally. I don’t know exactly what’s wrong with this team, because they seem talented on paper and their run game has shown flashes of brilliance. There’s something missing, maybe mental toughness, and I see no way for them to win even three of their next five games. 1-4 or 0-5 seem much more likely.
9. Would you like to know how delusional Cowboy fans are? I have been back in town 1 day and have had MULTIPLE people tell they think the ‘Boys will win 8 straight and make the playoffs at 9-7. That means they have to beat Saints, @Colts, and Eagles X2 plus Lions, Redskins, and Cards.
Grandpa Wade sucked, there’s no doubt, but there are many more problems with this team than simply a poor head coach. An aging and weak offensive line, a below-average defense, and the 31st-ranked running game in the league are just a few. I think the absolute ceiling for this Cowboys team is 7-9, and 5-11 is much more likely.
10. As The Juice noted here earlier, the Cards are really bad and are lucky to have 3 wins. The Seahawks now lead the NFC West at 5-4, one game ahead of the Rams (4-5) and two ahead of the Cards (3-6) and the 49ers (3-6). The ‘Hawks still have three road games (@Saints, @49ers, @Bucs) plus the Falcons and Chiefs at home. I think a 7-9 division winner is still in play!
In play: yes. Likely: no. One of these teams will hit a decent streak, or at least catch a couple good opponents on bad days (like the Cardinals’ win over the Saints). Also, the Seahawks are unpredictable, and have a great home field. They could easily beat KC at home, and it might not be a cakewalk for the Falcons.
11. I am really looking forward to Raiders-Steelers this weekend much more than the Colts and Pats. It might be fatigue from a decade of games now, but it would be really nice if the Colts and Pats could go just one year without playing each other.
Raiders-Steelers should be a lot of fun, if only for all the 1970’s highlights we should see on the pregame shows. Can the Raiders keep up this run of theirs? I doubt it. I think the Steelers’ defense winds up shutting them down. As I said above, I think the Colts are still very dangerous, and they should play the Pats very hard. I’m excited about both games.
12. Philly has intrigued me all season with incredible speed at almost every skill position. ESPN is reporting the Eagles will re-sign (or Franchise tag) Vick to keep him. I guess that makes sense. Keep Vick and trade Kolb instead of losing Vick for nothing.
Vick hasn’t let up yet, and if keeps playing at such an unbelievable level, the Eagles would be crazy to let him go. Pairing him with DeSean Jackson is just so scary to watch. No defense has the speed to handle them both. Kolb is unproven, but might still be worth something on the open market. Maybe they could use him to pick up a veteran to shore up the defense and make a real run at the Superbowl next year. Heck, I’m far from ruling them out of a championship run this season.
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