Week 8 Analysis

DP:  This week’s games were not so interesting, but one theme clearly emerged: Well run franchises vs. poorly run franchises. The stress of the season is finally revealing the cracks in the foundations of poorly run teams and that showed up over and over again. The Best Franchises (New England, Pitt, Indy, and possibly Philly, the NY Giants, and Tenn) are all remarkably similar:

1.      Stability at GM and coach. This keeps the same system in place. Important because obviously you value players in free agency and the draft depending on how important they are to your system. We’ll get to some examples in a minute. Having a strong GM and coach also helps prevent the leadership of a team doing rash moves to try and save their jobs that ultimately set back a franchise in the long run (see Minnesota). Coaches and GMs with job security don’t make dumb, shortsighted moves for the most part.

2.      Drafting well. That means not whiffing on early picks and picking up value later in rounds. New England, Indy, and Pitt always seem to draft few busts up front and solid contributors later. Look at the Colts since they picked Manning/Edgerrin James at #1 and #4 back in the late 1990’s, they have not had high picks. They have been able to get Dwight Freeney, Reggie Wayne, and Dallas Clark in the first round. Late rounds picks include Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie.

3.      Free Agency. Re-sign your own guys and then use free agency to find value and plug holes. Like I said a few weeks back, you could argue that the only 2 free agent signings that affected the outcome of the Superbowl were Reggie White and Drew Brees. Look at teams that go hard after free agents like Washington with Albert Haynesworth, it never seems to work out.

TJ: Doc, you made a bunch of valid points and a very cogent argument.  I think the main theme is simple: success breeds success.  As you said, it’s easy to do the right thing when you’ve established yourself as a winner and aren’t worried about your job.  This doesn’t just apply to management, it also applies to individual players and individual games.  Being groomed properly, having early success, and developing confidence allows a player to play well under pressure later in their career, because they’re not so worried about how they’re perceived.  They already know what they can do, and they know that everyone else respects their abilities, so it’s much easier to take setbacks in stride and keep playing the same way they always have instead of taking crazy chances trying to make something happen, or going super-conservative out of fear.  Good examples are Montana and Brady, who won superbowls early, and so were able to be “cool under pressure” for the rest of their careers.  Favre is a funny example, as he is always erratic, but has had enough success to maintain his crazy style of play.

            As I mentioned, this also applies to an individual game.  When a team has success early in the game and builds a lead, they generally run the ball more and better, have fewer turnovers, and can be conservative (with the freedom for aggressive plays when appropriate) on defense without fear of blowing the game.  The team that’s behind has to rely on the pass, make chancy throws, and take stupid chances trying to create turnovers on defense.  It’s a general rule in life: success breeds success, and the opposite is true as well, failure is a habit (I think Lombardi said something like that).

The upshot?  My Browns are screwed!

On to the games!

Dolphins over Bengals

DP: Here is a corollary to the above rules. YOU ARE NEVER ONE WIDE RECEIVER AWAY FROM MAKING IT. I cringe every time I hear a team say they just need one good wide receiver to get them over the top. Think about it, Keyshawn Johnson didn’t make the difference in Tampa, Joey Galloway didn’t resurrect the Troy Aikman Cowboys, Randy Moss wasn’t the deep threat that Oakland needed, and Roy Williams sure wasn’t the answer in Dallas. All of those WRs landed at least a 1^st round pick and something else and every one was considered a bust for the team that landed them. Even the one time it might have worked (Terrel Owens to the Eagles), the team won the NFC title to go to the Superbowl with him hurt on the bench. Typically, teams that think they need one wide receiver are just trying to fool themselves into believing their current QB is good. Look at Manning, Brees, and Brady, it’s not an accident that those guys always seem to find good WRs. GOOD QBs      MAKE GOOD WRs, not the other way around.

So why did I go on this rant. Because Miami and Cincy added two high profile WRs this offense to bolster their passing games, only one did it the right way and the other screwed the pooch. Miami added Brandon Marshall (5^th year player) for a second round pick. He is on pace for 107 receptions and 1344 yards (but only 2 TDs). That’s not a bad return. Cincy meanwhile had a nice thing going with a good running game and solid defense last year. You would think that with Carson Palmer slipping you would focus more on running the ball and defense. Instead, they double down on head cases and add and aging TO. His stats are actually better than Marshall’s (projected 103 receptions for 1438 yards and 11 TDs), but the problem is that most of his stats come in games where the Bengals lose. In their 2 wins he has a total of 7 receptions and 99 yards. By going away from the strength of their team, the Bengals screwed up.

TJ: Neither of these teams is making the playoffs now, even though I had high hopes for the ‘Phins.  You can blame the passing game (Palmer and Henne and the bevy of receivers), but I think they’re just not as talented in any aspect of the game as the division leaders they’re chasing (Pitt/Balt and NE/NYJ).  I’m particularly disappointed in the ‘Phins lackof offensive creativity.  Where are all the direct snaps to Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams?  Why isn’t Henne lining up as a split end?  What a dick tease.

Jags over Cowboys

DP:  This was just embarrassing. The Cowboys are so poorly run, I don’t know where to start. We’ll run the list. #1 they have great stability at GM. When the owner is the GM, you know he won’t get fired. The problem is Jerry loves to hire weak head coaches (aside from Bill Parcells) so he can boss them around and get all the credit for winning. This lack of accountability filters down throughout the entire team. #2 Drafting. You would think a cash rich team like the Cowboys would hire the best scouts and draft the best. Not really, they have focused mainly on defense early (first round picks include Mike Jenkins, Terrence Newman, Marcus Spears, DeMarcus Ware, Anthony Spencer, Bobby Carpenter), but the defense has been terrible this year. They have not been able to find good O-linemen late which leads to problem #3. Free Agency: the Cowboys end up trying to fill holes on the O-line, but they end up with older injury prone veterans. Throw in an idiotic trade like Roy Williams for a 1^st and 3^rd round pick and you can see why they are in so much trouble.

TJ: The Jags are not for real, and yet they murdered the Cowboys.  I mean, this game was worse than the score indicated (it was 28-3 before the Cowboys found the end zone in garbage time).  Crazy Jerry will finally fire Grandpa Wade, but I’m not sure that they can overcome the damage this season has caused.  I don’t look for the ‘Boys to be a contender for a couple of years.  The Jags are 4-4, but they still have to play at Indy, at Giants, at Tennessee, and at Houston.  No way they win even 9 games.

Lions over Redskins

DP: The Lions used to be the worst run team in the league but it looks like they are turning things around by focusing on developing young talent through the draft. Their last 3 picks (Calvin Johnson, Matthew Stafford, and N. Suh) all look like legit players in the league. The Redskins, however, are another poster child for doing everything wrong. They constantly change coaches, which means their players never adjust to the system and you can never properly evaluate their personnel. Look at poor Jason Campbell: who knows if he was any good because they changed offensive systems every year. Then they pay $40 million to Albert Haynesworth and change systems the next year so he is no longer featured in their defense. Sure he’s a dick about it, but he’s got a point. It was a dumb signing compounded by a dumb change in system. Finally, we get the complete idiocy that we witnessed last weekend. The old washed up Mike Shanahan and his kid who is running the offense decide they have had enough with Donovan McNabb and bring in Rex freakin’ Grossman? Just unbelievably stupid in so many ways. I have been waiting for Washington to collapse and this was about the right time. I don’t know where they go from here. McNabb is history. I guess they try to find a new QB and go on next year. Long term, the Redskins are in worse shape than the Cowboys.

TJ: Wow, Doc, you were rough on the ‘Skins!  But I have to agree: if I were taking over one franchise right now, I’d take the Cowboys over the ‘Skins.  I don’t see how they recover from this clusterfuck.  I’m no huge McNabb fan, but I feel for him here.  He just can’t stop getting screwed, can he?  Snyder needs to have his franchise revoked.  You’re right that Detroit is looking up in every way.  I’d love to see them become the NFC North powerhouse in the next few years.  Hard to imagine, though, with their history (at least for the last 50 years!).

Chiefs over Bills

DP:  Chiefs have turned things around the New England way. Focus on the draft, smart trades. Matt Cassel (projected for 2734 yards, 23 TDs and 7 Ints, QB rating of 90.4) for a second round pick is fair. Eric Berry (41 tackles, 2 INT) is a good first round pick. Signing Thomas Jones (projected 1230 yards and 7 TDs) as a free agent was a good value. The Bills are hopeless.

TJ: Just when I think I’m going to relent and say the Chiefs are for real, they need overtime to beat the worst team in the league AT HOME!  They better fear the Raiders.  It’s true, though, the Bills are hopelss.

Rams over Panthers

DP:  I actually like John Fox and thought he has done a good job. I think he is third in line for the Dallas job behind Cowher (unlikely to accept) and Gruden (possible with the right package). The Rams need to avoid Randy Moss and continue to draft well.

TJ:  Maybe the Rams are the team of the future in the NFC West.  Of course, that’s kind of like being the game of the future on the Commodore 64.  I agree with the Doc: the last thing Sam Bradford needs is Randy Moss right now.  Let him grow into the alpha dog before you challenge him with a talented problem child.  The Panthers are almost as bad as the Bills.  They need to knock it down and start over.

Packers over Jets

DP:  I forgot to include the Packers in the best run organizations. I am kind of jealous of GB actually. How great would it be for the community to own the team? No crazy head case of an owner ruining things and threatening to leave town with a big new stadium. Weird game though. Never thought the banged up Packers would go on the road and throw a shutout.

TJ: This game blew my mind.  Before the season, we all thought the Pack had a killer defense.  Was it actually true and they just needed to get healthy?  Or are the Jets who we thought they were (elite defense with a hugely overrated offense?).  Both questions should be answered soon: if the Jets can’t run it up against Detroit and Cleveland, their offense sucks; if the Packers can’t shut down Dallas, their defense was an aberration.

49ers over the Broncos

DP:  Historically, they are two of the better franchises who have hit hard times. I don’t blame the Broncos for dumping Cutler and Marshall and moving on, but it’s hard to see what the Broncos are trying to build. They now heavily rely on the pass but their last two first round picks are Knowshon Moreno and Tim Tebow. Neither one screams passing game. The 49ers are a mess. I like Mike Singletary as a personality, but its clear he can’t run either an offense or a defense. Like Mike Lombardi said “you’re paying an awful lot for a pre-game speech.”

TJ: Wow, I hadn’t heard that Lombardi quote: it’s brutal because it’s true!  Too bad, because this was the year for the Niners to turn the corner.  St. Louis and maybe Seattle are on the rise, so this was their window in the division.  The Broncos make no sense at all.  I think the coach is an overhyped moron, and as the Doc said, the players don’t make sense together.  I don’t see either of these teams going anywhere.

Chargers over Titans

DP: San Deigo may have won this game, but it’s Tenn that will make the play-off run. Charger’s GM AJ Smith is clearly a bright guy, but he lets his ego get in the way too often and has alienated his team. The fall of Shawn Merriman has been astonishing. Tenn under Jeff Fischer is consistently good in the draft and free agency. Unfortunately, he ended up in the same division as Peyton Manning or else he would probably have won the AFC South 4 or 5 times by now.

TJ: I like the way the Titans are put together.  Just think they need a couple more good defenders to push them over the top and into that Superbowl-type team they had in the McNair/George/Bullock era.  Johnson is a stud running back and Vince Young may have a bright future.  That future may be wrecked by this new report: the Titans just claimed Randy Moss on waivers!  Ooooh,  how do you think he’ll get along with Jeff Fischer?  This could be really interesting.  The Chargers are a wreck, and it’s their defense.  I guess Merriman was really just a product of the supplements.  Sad, but probably not atypical.

 Raiders over Seahawks

DP:  As the Juice put it “Oakland can’t be good, can they?”. Until the last two weeks, the Raiders were prime examples of doing everything wrong. Meddling owner. Weak coaching staff. Poor drafts (Jamarcus Russell). Dumb free agent signings (Javon Walker). We’ll see if they can keep it together, although I doubt they get over 8-8. As for the Seahawks, we’ll see. I was skeptical of the Pete Carrol hiring, but they still have a shot in the NFC West. The birds host the Giants this weekend in a surprisingly intriguing match-up.

TJ:  I’m psyched for the Raiders and would love to see them catch the Chiefs.  I’m not betting on it, though.  They’re built on a shaky foundation, and I’ll need to see a few more weeks of consistency before I buy in to these blowout wins.  A win at home against the Chiefs would help, but going on the road and beating Pittsburgh in two weeks will win me over.  The Seahawks are the best team in the worst division, and they’re wildly inconsistent.  4-3; average margin of victory: 12 points; average margin of defeat : 21 points.  Strange team.  If they beat the Giants at home this week, I still won’t know whether they’re any good!

Pats over Vikings

DP:  Talent-wise, these two teams are actually pretty close. New England has a better passing game and special teams. Minny is better at Defense and running game. The difference is in management. Brad Childress (who looks exactly like a pedophile) lost his team by pandering to Brett Favre and then cracking down on everyone else. The trade for Moss was dumb to begin with, then waiving him after he makes you mad is even dumber. I feel bad for loyal Viking fans, they deserve better. Hopefully, they fire ‘Chilly’, bring in McNabb and right the ship next year. The Pats have had a little trouble drafting in recent years and are probably a little too hard-line in negotiating with their own players, but do everything else just about perfectly.  

TJ: Pats: Fun.  Vikes: Done.  ‘Nuff said.

Bucs over Cards

DP:  The Bucs are really, really young, but appear to have a good nucleus. Playing the young guys now should pay off down the road. The Cards are lost in the desert again. Good luck finding a QB next year.

TJ: The Cards have become a joke.  The QB is just one of many problems, and I think they’ve been exposed as a team that caught lightning in a bottle with Warner/Fitzgerald/Boldin, and promptly fell apart when they split up that combo.  The NFC South is a tough division,  and I don’t think Atlanta and New Orleans are going to fall apart soon, so the Bucs have their work cut out for them.  I’d love to see them put together a contender, but they need more talent on defense and time to gel on offense before they’re ready.  They have huge potential, so let’s hope they don’t mismanage things.

Saints over Steelers

DP: No need to rehash the Steelers. They are probably the best run team in the league. As for the Saints, it’s amazing what a perfect coach-QB pair can accomplish.

TJ: The Saints (5-3) have righted the ship and now have 5 easy games in a row before they play at Baltimore on December 19^th.  They could easily be 10-3 going into that game.  But if they’re 8-5, they better watch out, because they finish with the Bucs and Falcons, and could see the division slip away at the end of the year.  The Steelers’ only two losses are to good teams (Baltimore and NO), and they have a lot of winnable games left on the schedule.  Big Ben will work himself back into a rhythm, and they’ll be peaking come playoff time.  Scary.

Colts over Texans

DP: One statistic is all you need to know about the Colts. Dallas Clark goes down and Jacob Tamme slides into the starting line-up to produce 6 catches for 64 yards and 1 TD. No whining or complaining. Just another guy stepping up when called upon.

TJ:  We knew Indy was the better team before this game.  This was Houston’s chance to prove week 1 wasn’t a fluke, and they blew it, even against a Colts team missing some of its best players.  If the Texans beat San Diego handily this week, I’ll still give them an outside shot at the postseason, but a loss and a 4-4- record means they’re out, and Tennessee is chasing that Wild Card spot.  The Colts are as good as always.  Meaning they’ll make the playoffs with ease, but I still think they’ll fall short of the big game, and I doubt my opinion on that will change regardless of their regular season record.