Week 9 Analysis

DP: Well, Juice, I am super busy this week getting ready for Neuroscience 2010 next week in San Diego and I imagine you are too; so this week’s review will be short and sweet (I only talk about the winners).

TJ: Next week will be tough.  Not just because of the travel, but also because we now have Thursday night games to deal with, shortening our deadlines.  Plus, I’m going to drink a lot.  A LOT.  Maybe it’ll help my picks.

Atlanta over Tampa

DP: Atlanta quietly has built up a 6-2 record and has a real shot at the top seed in the NFC. Next 3 games are the Ravens this Thursday followed by @Rams, and Packers. If they can go 2-1 in that stretch, they have a real shot.

TJ: Atlanta looks good, but I think this game was more about Tampa.  Yes, Freeman is good, and yes, they play great hustle defense and really seem to have bought into Raheem Morris’s system.  But they aren’t an elite team yet.  They’re unlikely to make the playoffs, and I’m picking against them every time they play a quality team.  They have Carolina and San Fran in their next two games, and they should win both, but then the schedule gets tough.  Atlanta has such a tough schedule for the rest of the season, they could struggle, too.  These two teams will battle for a Wild Card spot, and the loser will miss the playoffs with 9 wins.

Bears over Bills

DP: The Bears are sitting at 5-3 and would seem to be in good position to make a run at the play-offs, but don’t get too excited. The second half of their schedule features the Vikings twice, @Packers, @Lions, plus @Miami, Philly, NE, and Jets. Expect a late fade.

TJ: I agree with the Doc.  The Bears aren’t there, and they aren’t going to get there.  Cutler’s 86 QB rating doesn’t tell the whole story because is skewed upward due to gaudy numbers against the horrible teams they’ve played with losing records: 108 vs DET (2-6), 137 vs DAL (1-7), and 98 vs BUF (0-8).  Against decent teams with non-losing records: 83 vs GB (6-3), 41 vs NYG (6-2), 70 vs SEA (4-4), 54 vs WASH (4-4).  In other words, if the opponent has a pass rush, he wets his pants and blows up mentally.  Look for the Bears to finish 7-9 or 8-8.  Look for the Bills to finish 0-26.  Better yet, just don’t look.

Browns over Pats

DP: This one is really quite shocking. I could see the Pats stumbling on the road in a trap game, but losing by 20 is another story entirely. The Browns out-rushed the Pats 230-68 and held the ball for 38 minutes. Maybe this is the scheme to counter the Pats? The Pats next three are @Steelers, Colts, and then @Lions on Thanksgiving. We should know before December if they are real contenders.

TJ: I thought you were just talking about the winners, but there you go dwelling on the Pats and leaving my Brownies out of your analysis.  That’s fine with me, everybody stay quiet about the Browns, don’t hype them.  Just look at the schedule: home vs. Jets, @Jax, Carolina, @Miami, @Buf, @Cinc.  What if they go 5-1 in those games?  Then they’re 8-6 with Baltimore and Pitt coming to Cleveland in weeks 16 and 17.  Maybe one of them has locked up home-field and rests the starters, and Cleveland sneaks by the other.  WILD CARD!!!!  OK, back to reality: they’ll finish 7-9.  But I like the direction this team is headed.  The Pats are good, this was just a blip for them, and if the Jets keep playing the way they have the last two weeks, the Pats will lock up the division early.

Jets over Lions

DP: Good teams find a way to steal a few games every year (see: Manning, Peyton) and the Jets somehow squeezed out 10 points in the final 2:46 to comeback. Weird to think the game (and the Jets shot at winning the Division) may have turned on N’damukong Suh missing a PAT in the second quarter the Lion’s regular kicker Jason Hanson was injured. Seriously, don’t teams have a better back-up plan for PATs than a defensive tackle? Should the punter be able to handle this? Nothing against Suh, but why not go for the 2-point conversion?

TJ: This game is a classic example of Detroit sucking in their fans with good play for 3 ½ quarters, then snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.  They couldn’t stop finding ways to lose the game.  I’d chalk it up to a young team, but half the problem was coaching mistakes, especially clock management.  It’s just sad.  The Jets better pick it up going in to Cleveland this week, or they could find themselves in a hole.  They have an easy enough schedule, and 5-3 over the last eight games will get them 11-5 and a playoff spot.  But a loss to Cleveland and a stumble against Houston or Cicncy could see them finish 9-7 and on the outside.  They are one DUI by Revis or one sprained thumb from the Sanchize away from exactly that.  Coach Flabasaurus Rex, you have been warned.

Vikings over Cards

DP: The Vikes also rallied in the 4^th quarter, but this time they saved their coach instead of their season. Too bad it would have seemed appropriate for Grandpa Wade and Pedophile Chilly to go out together the same week. I guess Granpda Wade will need to find another fishing buddy in retirement, for at least another week any way.

TJ: Has there ever been a coach who was worse at press conferences than Childress?  Trainwreck.  The Vikes are a rollercoaster, and refuse to just give up and get eliminated from playoff contention.  It’s actually sad, because they’re just stringing their fans along.  They have to 7-1 over their last eight to have a legit shot, and with GB, NYG and Philly still on the schedule, they don’t have a prayer.  The Cards are also 3-5, but the NFC West is so bad, they still have a few believers.  They’re so done at QB, though, that I’m guessing 6-10 is much more likely than even 9-7.  I mean, this was Anderson’s best game statistically, but he still blew the game overthrowing Fitzgerald in OT.  And it hard to overthrow Fitzgerald.

Saints over Panthers

DP: With the Saints, Giants, Falcons, and (maybe) the Packers all putting things together, it looks like the NFC play-offs might actually be interesting. Saints survived a rash of injuries and are 6-3 going into their Bye Week. I am getting a little more excited for the Dallas-New Orleans Thanksgiving day game. If nothing else it should be high scoring! Keep an eye on Monday Night Dec 27^th. Saints @Falcons could decide the NFC South and the top seed in the NFC.

TJ: The Saints are good, and they’ll only get better if their running backs finally get healthy.  I like them better than the Falcons overall, and I’m guessing they come back strong from their bye and take the division at 12-4.  I think the Panthers are the worst team in the league, and Buffalo would beat them 8 out of 10 times.  They don’t need to rebuild, they need to relocate.  Or just disappear.

Ravens over Dolphins

DP: The Ravens are quietly going about their business while teams like the Steelers, Pats, and Jets get more attention. After @Falcons this Thursday, all of their tough games are at home (Steelers and Saints plus Tampa and Cincy). Mark this one down: December 5^th Sunday night game, Steelers @ Ravens. Baltimore could sweep the season series with the Steelers; which might get them the #1 seed in the AFC.

TJ: I’m not as high on the Ravens as everybody else, but I can’t put my finger on why.  Their offensive and defensive stats are pretty mediocre across the board, and they play a relatively weak schedule for the rest of the year.  They ought to make the playoffs, but I can’t see them winning the AFC, let alone the Superbowl.  The Phins just aren’t good enough at any single aspect of the game to excel.  I’ve been saying this all year, but they really need to get back to the offensive variety that made them a tough beat last year.

Chargers over Texans

DP: Everyone has assumed the Chargers will get their shit together and make another run at the AFC West and maybe they will. After the BYE this week they have Denver, @Indy, Oakland, KC, San Fran, @Cincy, @Denver. 6-1 (or 7-0) is entirely possible. That’s too bad, I hate the Chargers and would love to see the Chiefs or Raiders get a shot at the Playoffs.

TJ: Yeah, the Chargers are poised to make a run and save Norv Turner’s job yet again.  God, that guy sucks.  As a decision maker, he’s somewhere below Paulie D from Jersey Shore, and somewhere above Brad Childress.  I was never on the Texans’ bandwagon, but I did think they had a shot at a Wild Card for a while.  Now, I have to revise things.  They’re 4-4, and after playing in Jacksonville next week, they start an absolutely brutal stretch: @Jets, Tenn, @Philly, Baltimore, @Tenn.  They may go 0-5 there.  Hell, they may not score a point in those five games!

Giants over Seahawks

DP: The Giants have scored the following point totals during their 5 game win streak: 17, 34, 28, 41, and 41. Have they peaked too early? Schedule still includes Philly (2X), Wash (2X) and @Green Bay and @Minn.

TJ: The Giants have really put it together.  I see Washington collapsing, and the Cowboys’ corpse has already started to stink, so Philly is all that’s standing between the Giants and a first-round bye.  Philly’s good, though, and it’s going to come down to whether this vaunted Giants’ pass rush can stop the Michael Vick show.  The game at Philly in two weeks will be fun.  The Seahawks have an easy schedule.  Which is key, because decent teams seem to beat the shit out of them.  You can pencil them in for a first-round loss right now.

Raiders over Chiefs

DP: This was probably most fun game to watch of the weekend. Chiefs had a few chances to put the game away, but the Raiders managed to comeback and the AFC West a real race. After a BYE, the Raiders have @Pitt, Miami, and @San Diego. They end the season with Indy, @KC; so it will be a difficult stretch but 9-7 is possible.

TJ: I don’t think the Raiders can beat Pitt or Indy, but the game at San Diego on Dec. 5th looms large.  A win there and some luck puts 10-6 on the radar.  If I had to bet on it, though, I’d say the Raiders will be watching the playoffs on TV.  But maybe not next year.  I continue to think the Chiefs are pretenders, but their schedule is just so damn soft.  It will take a serious collapse for them not to get a Wild Card at least, and I think they’re too well-coached to fall apart.  They’ll get hammered in the playoffs, though.

Eagles over Colts

DP: This was pretty much the worse possible scenario for me. The Colts gave up big plays as feared (6.4 yards per play) and lost the game, but Philly failed to cover so I get no credit on the pick. Plus Austin Collie was hurt leaving the Colts without their #2 ,#3, and #5 receivers, their #1 and #3 RBs, and their top two safeties. The Eagles stay in contention in the NFC East; plus their schedule is a bit easier than the Giants (@Chicago, Houston, Dallas twice).

TJ: I’d say the Colts were in trouble, but they have home games against Cincy, SD, Dallas, and Jax still on the schedule.  No way they finish with less than 10 wins.  The Eagles played an outstanding game and barely won, a testament to the Colts’ strength.  As I mentioned above, the two Eagles/Giants games coming at us in November/December will be great, and will certainly decide the division.  The loser is my pick for a Wild Card, though, since the NFC West and North look ill.

Packers over Cowboys

DP: Packers get the BYE to recover then its 4 out of 5 on the road including @Minn, @Atlanta, @Lions, and @Pats. If they can split those games, then 10 wins and the NFC North is a good possibility.

TJ: Speaking of the NFC North, the Packers have emerged as the class of the division and should cruise to a first-round bye.  They should get healthier as the playoffs approach and be peaking at just the right time.  That defense is scary.  Meanwhile, Grandpa Wade’s rapidly progressing dementia finally got him canned in Dallas, but way too late to make a difference.  Where do they go from here?  How do you retool an entire offensive line?  I think their window is closed, and we’ve seen the last of the Cowboys as a contender for a few years.

Pitt over Cincy

DP: Pitt looks good and has a nice mix of give-me games (@Buff, Cincy, Carolina, @Cleveland) and tough match-ups (New England, Oakland, @Balt, and Jets). 12-4 seems fairly likely now.

TJ: Cincy is horrible.  Pitt is good, but they have weak spots.  Their offense has been anemic against good teams (they scored 15, 19, 14, and 10 points against Atlanta, Tennessee, Baltimore, and New Orleans, respectively).  They don’t really have a marquee receiver.  You know, it’s kind of crazy, but this might have been the best fit for Moss.  Rothlisberger has the cannon to throw the Moss deep route, and they have the kind of veteran team and coaching staff that could handle him.  They’re most similar to New England.  At any rate, the defense is still stellar, giving up just 15 points per game all season, and the offense should improve as Big Ben finds his rhythm.