Conference Championship Picks

Green Bay -3.5 @Chicago-

DP: The Juice and I played ‘guess the opening line’ Sunday evening by text. I guessed Bears -2.5. My feeling was that this was a pretty even match-up. The two teams split in the regular and the Packers had to struggle to pull out the home win on Week 17 after the Bears rested their starters. I also thought the weather would probably be crappy which would slow down the Packers. I gave the Bears the 3 points for homefield advantage then knocked it down to 2.5 because I figured the public liked the Packers in general and how Aaron Rodgers was playing. The Juice thought I was nuts, called the game a pick’em and said he would jump all over the Packers if the Bears were giving 2.5 points. I guess we were both wrong (although I was WAY off). Rarely do I miss a play-off line by 5 points, so I have really under estimated the Packer love (or the Bear hate as the case may be). I will happily take the Bears at -3.5. These two teams know each other well so I think it comes down to players and not coaching. The Bears pass defense is OK, they were 20^th overall and 16^th in sacks, but they were second best in giving up touchdowns (only 14 all year). So while you can get yards in the middle of the field, they are good at holding you to FGs. The Bears rush defense was second in the league (fun fact the top three rush defenses are still left: Pitt, Chicago, and NY Jets). The Packers don’t run the ball that well  (24^th in the league at 3.8 yards per carry) and I think if the weather gets bad it will help to have some pass/run balance. Lastly, I think field goal kicking may be important and I’ll take Robbie Gould narrowly over Mason Crosby. Could Aaron Rodgers light it up? Sure. Could the Bears give up 6 sacks and 3 INTs? Sure. But I think it will be close and low scoring. Bears 17-16 over the Packers.  Pick: Bears.

TJ: I was in earnest when I told the Doc he was nuts for thinking the Bears would be favored.  Listen, the Seaskanks may have edged the Saints, but they’re still the Seaskanks.  The Bears get no credit for that win in my book.  I don’t like Cutler as a QB, and I hate him as a leader.  I think if this is a close game like the Doc is guessing, he’ll find a way to blow it, maybe with a TAINT.  Unless the Bears get ahead early (perhaps with a Devin Hester return TD) and can rely on the run the entire second half, I definitely think they’ll blow it.  If this line were 2.5, I’d feel really confident.  At 3.5, a FG won’t do it, so I’m a little shaky, but I’m still going to take the Packers.

@Pittsburgh -3.5 vs. NY Jets-

DP: This is another game that I think the Juice and I will disagree on (which is good since I am now down 2 games to him in post season pick’em). At first look you would say that the Steelers are the more experienced team playing at home. You might also think that the Jets two big weaknesses are Sanchez against the blitz (advantage Steelers) and giving up touchdowns on the blitz (advantage Steelers). But when I watched the two games, I thought the Jets played great and the Steelers got really lucky. The Steelers will bring a better blitz than the Pats did, but the Jets have nice balance on offense and now that the running game is emerging, they don’t have to ask as much of Sanchez. On the other side, the Steeler’s offensive line is in tatters and I think that will give the Jets a lot of options on defense. This one should also be close and low scoring and in those types of games you just can’t expect a team to win by more than 3 points. Pick: Jets

TJ: I’m going to surprise the Doc a bit here.  When I saw this line, I felt exactly as he described when he said “At first look . . .”  However, the Doc is right, at least in part.  Look, the Pats played a bad game and all, but let’s not forget that they were the best team in the league and the Jets handed them their asses on their own field!  That can’t be discounted, and they have to be taken seriously in this game.  Some counter-arguments to a Jets pick:

1) The Jets run game looks solid, and they can definitely pressure the QB.  However, the Steelers are terrific against the run, and though they have a battered O-line, Big Ben is pretty good under pressure and hard to bring down. 

2) The Jets haven’t had to ask Sanchez to do much because they were able to run well against the Pats and Colts.  But . . . Pittsburgh held Baltimore to 35 rushing yards last week, and they have the #1 rushing defense in the league.  Sanchez will simply have to do more this week.  Pittsburgh will dare him to throw, and I don’t trust him to consistently generate passing offense.

3) The Jets have been great on the road in the playoffs!  But . . . since 1972 the Steelers are 32-18 in the playoffs, and since 2002 they’re 5-2 in home playoff games.

Look, the Jets have been great, but do we really think they have enough left in the tank to win this game?  I don’t think so. But can they keep the loss down to a FG or less?  Now that’s a tough question. Polamalu just hasn’t been himself lately, and I can’t expect him cause the same level of havoc and turnovers he’s caused in the past.  I gotta agree with the Doc: this one will be too low scoring to give up 3.5 points. Pick: Jets.

Divisional Round Analysis

Pitt vs Balt-

DP: The fact that this game was close and hard-hitting covered up for the fact that it wasn't really that well played. Pittsburgh is a veteran team that plays well under pressure, but look at the facts. Their offensive line is bad, they had a bad day running the ball (71 yards total 2.3 yards/run), and probably should have been blown out if Baltimore didn't have so many turnovers in the second half to give them a short field. The best thing you can say about Pitt is that they made big plays when it counted. That is the complete opposite of Baltimore. They had a big lead but continued to make crappy plays whenever it counted. I went out for Indian food at half time and remember thinking that Baltimore would have to have several turnovers to lose and that was the case. It’s hard to really describe how bad Baltimore's offense was. 12 first downs, 126 total yards, 3.0 yards per pass, 1.9 yards per rush. Even then they could have probably just punted the ball away and made Pitt work the length of the field. I realize there were a lot of dropped passes (most famously by Boldin in the end zone and TJ H on 4th down), but the pass by Flacco into double coverage was unforgivable. Throw in some penalties (including the punt return for a TD called back on holding) and giving up the 3rd and 19 play and it was a day of big mistakes by the Ravens. One last thing. Was the goal line showdown at the end of the 4th quarter one of the greatest moments in gambling history? Tie game with a 3 point spread. If Baltimore could hold Pitt to a FG then it would be a draw, TD would mean a Pitt cover. Well you know the rest. Everyone who picked the Ravens went from sure cover to hoping for a draw to just disaster. Pitt is the favorite at home, but they are not playing well. I think the Jets give them a lot of trouble.

TJ: I was obviously surprised when Baltimore jumped out to such a huge lead, but because of my impression of Flacco, this game never really seemed out of reach.  Flacco and the overrated free agent receivers the Ravens surrounded him with blew the game, but the rest of the team is far from blameless.  The offensive line and Ray Rice could have won this game in the second half if they could have picked up a few first downs on the ground and run that clock down a bit.  The defense needed a couple of key stops (especially that infamous 3^rd and 19) to put the game away.  Nobody stepped up.  On Pittsburgh’s side, the Doc is right: they didn’t play all that well in any facet of the game in the first half, and they weren’t stellar in the second half either.  However, they kept their cool, made plays when they needed to, and took advantage of the Ravens’ mistakes without losing their cool.  In short, they looked like professionals.  The Jets are no joke, obviously, but if Pittsburgh can play a little better next week and pressure Sanchez the way the Pats failed to do, they should still be the favorite to make the Superbowl.

Green Bay over Atlanta-

DP: On paper Atlanta looked like the better team, but sometimes you just know that a team won't rise to the occasion. I've had that feeling about the Dirty Birds for a while now. Steady but unspectacular during the ready season and no extra gear for the playoffs. They completely melted under the pressure of the national spotlight (I guess they call should call him Matty puddle of water). Everyone has now jumped firmly on the Packer bandwagon, they are a road favorite next week at the Bears. It should be a great game and I'll be happy to have either fan base migrate to our fair city for the Superbowl.

TJ: I hate Colin Cowherd.  That dude may be the biggest douchebag on the planet.  But he made one good point on his radio show Monday morning: the entire divisional round was won by the team with the better defense.  This game illustrates that point as well as any.  Everyone loves Aaron Rodgers and thinks he played an amazing game, and they’re right.  But the Packers won because the Atlanta offense couldn’t begin to move the ball.  Atlanta was 3-10 on third down conversions and rushed for a total of 45 yards while turning the ball over four times.  Their kick return TD was the only thing that kept this from being an epic loss.  I love what Dom Capers has done with this Green Bay defense, using the zone blitz and disguising coverages as well as anybody in the league.  Although Aaron Rodgers won’t have quite the same kind of field day outdoors against the Bears defense next week, I expect the Packers’ D to be all over Cutler and that fragile Bears offense.

Chicago over Seattle-

DP: I feel I know less about this Bears team than any other #2 seed that is hosting the NFC title game. Seriously, I have no feel for this team. Even after their playoff win, I still don't know what to think about them. They have been maligned since the beginning of the season but here they are one game from the Superbowl. Let's look at the resume: 11-5 regular season record. Quality wins over Green Bay, @Miami (of course is that quality?), Philly, and Jets. Bad losses to @Giants, Redskins, Seaskanks, and Pats. Close game with the Packers in which the Bears pulled their starters in the second half. I can't even make up my mind about the coaches and QB. Lovie Smith? Mike Martz? Jay Cutler? Are these guys good or not? I really have no idea. Flashes of brilliance followed by inconsistency. I could see two outcomes for the game: 1. The Bears pressure Rodgers all day with their front 7 and win a close game. 2. They completely collapse and the Packers blow them out. It’s hard for me to imagine any other scenario. Either way it should be fun.

TJ: The Skanks offense came back down to earth, which I think probably says more about the Saints defense than the Bears defense.  Chicago is a scrappy team with a good defense, and they can play well when Cutler isn’t pressured into picks and sack-fumbles.  Unfortunately, that’s exactly what the Packers are best at, and I expect the Bears to look like a different team in the NFC Championship Game.  Unless their defense can get them multiple turnovers and they get a special teams score out of Hester, I just don’t think they have the weapons to beat the Pack.

Jets over the Pats-

DP: I had forgotten how much I hated the Pats until it was 14-11 and it looked like they might come back. I was pretty resigned to the fact that the Pats would likely win the Superbowl and had come to peace with it. Then the Jets swooped in and kicked their asses and it made my day. I actually find the Jets kind of grating as well, but they are colorful and I can't ever get enough foot fetish jokes. I could go over the details of the game at length, but why bother? This game is sure to be dissected all week. It’s funny how fickle the popular press is. Last year before the Superbowl, Manning was about to be crowned the Greatest of All Time, now he has a losing record in the playoffs and everyone is dogging him. Same thing this year with Brady. He was on his way to a 4th Superbowl and the Greatest of All Time and now he has lost 3 straight playoff games and has not won a Superbowl in 7 years without that killer defense. I am an on-the-record Manning fan and I have a much more realistic view of both Manning and Brady. Manning is a great regular season QB, hard working and one of the smartest guys to ever play the position. Great leader and does a lot of charity work. Decent sense of humor, over exposed in commercials. One big weakness is that he gets tight in playoff games and is prone to making mistakes. Has fulfilled about 95-98% of his potential. Could easily have 0 Superbowls or 3, All of this being said, should it diminish my enjoyment of following his career at all? No. The Colts were mostly terrible before him, watching football has been a complete joy since then. As for Brady, he is another great regular season QB. Smart, really accurate. Good leader, but not a great off the field guy. Plays well under pressure, but probably not ahead of Elway or Montana. Can't win a Superbowl without a great defense. The funny thing is that they both will have a similar legacy- they both really benefitted from rule changes that freed up the passing game and both managed to maintain long term team excellence in the era of free agency when personnel changed rapidly. 

TJ: I don’t care what anybody says, I still don’t like this Jets team!  Much like Atlanta with Rodgers, New England’s defense just couldn’t put any pressure on Sanchez, and if you give anybody 6 seconds untouched in the pocket, they’re eventually going to find an open man.  Pittsburgh will not give Sanchez nearly that kind of time.  On the other side of the ball, I just plain underestimated the Jets secondary.  I thought Revis and Cromartie were great deep cover guys, but I didn’t think they could handle the quick slants, and I still haven’t figured out how the Jets neutralized the Pats’ tight ends.  Once that happened, though, the Patriots’ lack of a running game became glaringly obvious, and they were just shit out of luck.  Although Pittsburgh has a bit more power on offense, their line isn’t terrific, and I’m not sure they can run the ball at will on this Jets team.  It’s the Pittsburgh defense that will decide that game, and I think they’re more than good enough to win it.

Bottom Line:

DP: I am now super pumped about the Conference finals. I think all 4 teams probably think they have a good chance of winning it all. I also think any of the 4 match-ups would be fun to watch in the Superbowl. 

TJ: I disagree with the Doc.  I don’t think anything is exciting about the Bears and will be uninspired if they make the Superbowl.  The Jets are more annoying than interesting, and I’m not sure I can handle two straight weeks of their nonsense leading up to the big game.  No, I’m definitely rooting for a Pittsburgh/Green Bay championship game, and I don’t think I’m the only one.

Update on NFL Picks

One week into the play-offs, the Good Doc has a slight lead on The Juice 54% vs. 50% correct.

Barely better than a coin flip and not in the money.

Divisional Round Picks

At Pittsburgh -3         Baltimore

DP: There is no sense going back and forth on the analysis for this one. The margin of victory has been 3 points the last four times these teams have played, 10 out of the last 22 going back to 2001. They are both tough, experienced teams that know each other well. I’ll take the points and hope for a Baltimore win or for the Steelers not to be able to pull away. Pick: Ravens.

At Atlanta       -2.5      Green Bay

DP: It’s funny because last week I did a lot of research because I didn’t have a good feel for any of the games. This week I just have strong gut hunches. I just don’t feel Atlanta has that ‘extra-gear’ for the play-offs. They are well coached and disciplined, but until they win a big game in the spotlight I just don’t trust them. I watched every second of the first match-up earlier this year and these are two very evenly matched teams. A couple of short yardage plays was the difference for the Falcons. I think Green Bay is used to the pressure of being on a national stage and will pull it out late. Pick: Pack.

At Chicago     -10       Seattle

DP: Again, my gut just says 10 is too much. Sure Seattle could cave, but they are playing with house money now and are sure to be loose for the game. How will Cutler handle the pressure? God only knows, but I have no faith in him covering 10 points, especially when the weather could be bad. Pick: ‘Skanks

At New England        -8.5      NY Jets

DP: This one is the toughest for me. Sure the Pats rolled the Jets earlier, but I think the Jets will learn from their mistakes. If the Indy game taught us only one thing, its that the Jets coaching staff is willing to make adjustments. It seems to me that the best chance the Jets have of staying close is turnovers. New England was famous this year for not turning the ball over. Was it skill or luck? The Juice believes turnovers are largely luck, especially fumbles. New England was the best this year with an out-of-this–world +27 (+8 on fumbles). The Jets were a so-so +4. Interestingly, the Jets were -5 on INTs, but +9 on fumbles. That means the vaunted Jets defense had a conference low 8 INTs but got really lucky on recovering fumbles so the Jets may have actually been more lucky than the Pats! The other way the Jets could keep it close is by using their running game to have long drives. Tomlinson did look better last week, but that was against the Colts. The Pats were alright against the run, 6^th in the AFC at 108 yards per game. That leaves Sanchez and his accuracy was a real concern last week. Indy might not have the secondary to take advantage of him, but the Pats do (24 INTs). The Jets barely beat an Indy team that was ravaged by injuries and ripe for the picking. The Pats are healthy, focused, motivated, and peaking at the right time. Unless there are some injuries or fluky turnovers, I think the Pats can handle them easily. Pick: Pats

TJ:  I’m going to do something a little different this week and try to be scientific about this shit.  I’m going to rank each of the teams playing in the divisional round in four categories: offense, defense, coaching, and QB.  I’ll take into account their opponent, injuries, and game conditions (so this is a ranking for this week only, not for the season or the career; i.e., I’ll say that Chicago’s offense is better than Baltimore’s this week because they play the ‘Skanks D, while the Ravens have to play the brutal Pittsburgh defense).  After I rank each team in these categories (1-8, lower number is better), I’ll add up the points and make my picks based on how low each team’s overall number is.  Here we go:

Offense:

1.    New England.  I actually paused here since they’re playing a good defense in the Jets.  But after the beat-down they put on the Jets’ D in Week 13 and considering they averaged 38 points per game in the last 8 games (all wins, never scoring under 31), I can’t rank anyone higher.  In fact, figuring out who’s number 2 is much harder.

2.    Chicago.  This was tough, since I think a few other teams actually have better offenses than the Bears, and I don’t trust Cutler (see below).  But they’re playing at home against the weakest defense in the playoffs.  I know New England and Green Bay shut them down in Weeks 14 and 17, but they hung 40 and 38 on Minny and the Jets in between, so they can score against a bad D.

3.    Green Bay. I know this isn’t the best offense around, but if they can get similar production from the running game to what they got against Philly last week, they can score points against a less than stellar Atlanta defense.  Remember, they put up 27 and 45 on New England and the Giants late in the season!

4.    Pittsburgh. If they were playing the 2006 Ravens, I’d have to drop them down even further, but this Ravens’ D isn’t as dominant as it once was, and we don’t know how Ed Reed will play with the sad family circumstances he has to handle.  The Steelers have a solid running game and a top QB, so they get the edge.

5.    Atlanta. I love Green Bay’s defense, but Atlanta is playing at home, and they have an excellent, well-rounded offense with a QB who rarely makes mistakes.

6.    Seattle.  After last week’s performance, I actually have to give the ‘Skank’s O some respect.  Also, they won in Chicago in Week 6, which has to count for something.

7.    Baltimore.  Don’t trust their QB, they’re on the road, and they’re playing an excellent defense that’s getting Polamalu back just in time to really disrupt the Ravens’ rhythm.

8.    New York Jets.  New England isn’t the best D, but they’ve been great against the Jets.  Sanchez has played poorly lately, they’re on the road, and they could barely squeak out 17 points against a terrible Colts D last week.

Defense:

1.    Pittsburgh.  I just love the way they’re playing right now, and think a healthy Polamalu makes them the best D in the league.  Plus, the Ravens’ O isn’t the toughest test they’ve faced this year.

2.     Green Bay.  Again, Atlanta has a solid, balanced offense, but this Green Bay defense has been playing at an elite level (only giving up 11.5 points per game since week 9).  I think this might be the best D in the league right now.

3.    Baltimore.  Though they’ve declined a bit, this is still a great D, and Pittsburgh’s O is good, but not as explosive as in the past.  Remember, this D held Pittsburgh to 14 and 13 points in their two regular-season meetings.

4.    Atlanta.  This is a good, solid defense, and they’re not playing the best offense in the league.  Plus, they’re excellent at home, and are giving up let than 14 per game over the last four weeks.

5.    New England.  Not the best D in the league, but they killed the Jets last time, and they will likely be playing with a lead at home against a QB who performs badly when forced to play from behind.

6.    Chicago.  I wanted to rank them higher, but they gave up 34 to a weak Jets’ offense in week 16 and the Seaskanks showed they can score last week and have won in Chicago before.

7.    New York Jets.  A good defense playing on the road against one of the great offenses in football history and a QB playing at a level that’s off the charts.

8.    Seattle.  They gave up a lot of points to the Saints at home last week, and even though they’re not playing the best offense in Chicago, it’s hard to imagine them playing at even a mediocre level.

Coaching:

1.    New England. What else can Belichick do to prove he’s one of the best coaches of all time?  His game plans are always perfect, and his team is a well-oiled machine.  He’s shown he knows how to scheme the Jets to a tee.

2.    Pittsburgh. Mike Tomlin has done everything right in his tenure as Steelers head coach.  He’ll have his team ready, and he won’t make major errors in clock-management, challenges, or play-calling.  Dick Lebeau is arguably the best assistant coach in the NFL right now.

3.    Baltimore.  John Harbaugh is another example of an excellent coach who makes few mistakes.  He relies on his veteran leaders to run the defense on the field, and he manages the offense well.

4.    Atlanta.  Mike Smith has been nothing short of excellent in his short tenure in Atlanta, surprising everyone by turning the disaster left in the wake of Michael Vick’s exit into the most consistent team in the NFC.

5.    New York Jets.  OK, Rex Ryan is a loud-mouthed asshole.  That doesn’t make him a bad coach.  Hopefully he’ll have a few new wrinkles installed on D, and we know he’ll do a lot to motivate his team.

6.    Green Bay.  McCarthy is a good coach, though he’s plagued by clock-management issues.  He has one of the best coordinators in the league in Dom Capers supporting him, which gives him an edge here.

7.    Chicago.  Lovie Smith is a good coach overall, but he makes lots of mistakes and may have underachieved with this Bears team in the last couple years.

8.    Seattle.  This was a tough call, since Seattle doesn’t have playoff talent and had 4- and 5-win seasons in the two years before Carroll took over.  But this is a 7-win team in the worst division in NFL history, so I had to rank him last.

Quarterbacks:

1.    New England. I could start listing the reasons, but we’d be here all day.  Brady is the best in the game right now, and is making an argument for best all-time.

2.    Green Bay.  Rodgers played terrific this season, plus he’s playing indoors against a good but beatable defense.  He had a 115 QB rating the last time he played Atlanta.

3.    Pittsburgh.  Roethlisberger is a proven quantity: hard to sack, good under pressure, and the week off should have him healthy.  He’s playing a great D, but he’s seen them before.

4.    Atlanta.  Matt Ryan is excellent in every aspect of the game and is playing at home, where he’s super comfortable and successful.  However, he’s playing a terrific defense that’s been hell on QBs recently.

5.    Chicago.  It’s hard to rank Cutler this high when he still hasn’t figured out how to throw the fucking ball away to avoid the easy sack, but he’s playing at home against a horrible defense, so he gets an edge.

6.    Seattle.  Hasselbeck was amazing last week against the defending superbowl champs.  This is a much tougher defense he’s facing this week, though, and he’s on the road.

7.    Baltimore.  I’ve made no secret of the fact that I think Flacco is a flake.  Other than his size, I don’t think he has much going for him, and he’s playing the best defense out there.

8.    New York Jets.  The Sanchize has been floundering lately.  He hasn’t had a QB rating over 84 since Week 11, and it was a season-low 28 the last time he played New England.

The Juice's Picks:

At Pittsburgh -3         Baltimore

Pittsburgh’s combined score was 10 compared to Baltimore’s 20.  A lopsided pick that’s in line with my gut feelings anyway.  The Raven’s D is finally past its prime, and I don’t think their offense can get it done in Pittsburgh.  Steelers cover with ease.

At Atlanta       -2.5      Green Bay

Green Bay gets the lower score, 13, with Atlanta close behind at 17.  Again, this fits with my gut, which says that Green Bay’s defense is just too good, and will get them the outright win.

At Chicago     -10       Seattle

Chicago’s score is, of course, lower: 20 compared to 28.  The line is big, and Seattle will play loose, so this is actually a tough call.  Chicago had four wins during the season of 10 points or more, so they can blow out a bad team.  I think they’ll do it this week and cover the ten points.

At New England        -8.5      NY Jets

A huge margin of victory for New England in my ranking scores (8 to the Jets’ 28) means a huge margin of victory on the field.  Gotta take the Pats to run away with the game again this week.  Pats cover.

Wild Card Weekend Wrap-Up

Baltimore over Kansas City-

DP: There are some games where the numbers tell the whole story. Baltimore had more plays (78 vs. 40), more yards (390 vs. 161) and more time of possesion (41:44 vs. 18:16). I didn't think Baltimore played that well, but they were definitely more erady to handle the spot-light of the playoffs and took advantage when the Chiefs crapped the bed. Flacco's numbers were probably a little better than he actually played, but I still think he is a servicable QB. He has 36 wins in first 3 years and made the play-offs all three times with two road wins now. Think of all of the teams recently where people said 'they would be good with a better QB'. San Fran and Arizona this year. Minnesota with Tavaris Jackson. If the worst thing you can say about someone is that they win ugly, well that's not too bad. Baltimore now heads off to face Pittsburgh. Whatever is left of the winning team then faces the New England/NY Jets winner. This is pretty much the best scenario for New England.

TJ:  This was a competitive game throughout the first half, mostly due to the incredibly bad play of Flacco.  It was so bad in the second quarter, I actually texted the Doc: “Flacco sucks.”  The two fumbles were horrible.  Especially his 1^st and goal fumbled snap on the called QB sneak.  That’s nothing but nerves, and it cost his team 4 points.  Against the Steelers, that could mean the game.  I’ll give Flacco credit for playing a decent second half and avoiding INTs, but I still think he’s a subpar QB at best.  He’ll need to play much, much better to beat the Steelers, and I’ll be shocked if Polamalu doesn’t have a pick or two.

KC had a great season, but they won’t have the soft schedule next year, and I wonder whether Haley can really run the offense half as well as Weis.  The AFC West is still a weak division, but there’s reason to believe Oakland and San Diego will play better next year than this year, so I’ll be surprised to see the Chiefs running away with the division in 2011.  I loved Bill Williamson’s summary in his ESPN AFC West blog: “The Chiefs’ program is further along than they thought they would be, but this is no time to rest easy. The Chiefs have to continue to work to improve this young roster. Remember, the AFC West plays the AFC East and the NFC North in 2011 after playing the NFC West and the AFC South (the two divisions with the least amount of combined wins) in 2010. The road gets tougher. The Chiefs have to keep working.”

Packers over Eagles-

DP:  This game will probably be remembered for David Aker's missed field goals and Michael Vick's failed comeback attempt late in the 4th. It's probably right to remember this game for one team's mistakes, because the Eagles lost the game more than the Packers won it. For a marquee game I didn't think it was actually palyed that well. It seemed fairly sloppy with a lot of dropped passes (most famously the long TD pass at the end of the 2nd quarter that would have given GB a 21-3 lead). What's funny is that it does not show on paper at all. Rodgers numbers are pretty good (18/27, 180 yards, 3 TD, rating of 122.5) and the Packers finally showed a run game (138 yards), but they did not look crisp to me. Not like a team peaking in the play-offs. That being said, I think they have a great shot against the Falcons next week. I watched every minute of their regular season match-up and a couple of short yardage plays was the difference. As for the Eagles, I am still completely baffled. On paper they look like they should have easily handled the Packers. Andy Reid has traditionally had great success in the wild-card games, the Eagles had the better running game, speed in the passing game, a QB who could run or throw, and a defense that should have been good enough to handle a one-dimensional Packers team at home. It just looks like a couple of teams (specifically the Giants and Vikings) showed them a new look and they could never make the adjustments.

TJ:  Said it before, and I’ll say it again: I love this Packers’ defense.  They were absolutely superb, holding Vick to 33 yards on the ground and a QB rating under 80.  They also held the Eagles to only 5-13 3^rd down conversions, which is a real back-breaker for an offense when they’re trying to generate some momentum.  On the other side, Aaron Rodgers played very well (aside from the fumbles) and their rushing game finally looked decent, with James Starks (who!?!?!) rolling up 123 yards.  James Jones’ dropped pass was the only thing that kept this game from getting out of hand before halftime, so I think the Packers are a strong team and will give Atlanta all they can handle.

The Eagles are a good team with explosive potential.  They need to bolster their protection up front to allow Vick to continue his rapid progress as a pocket passer, and they need to tweak that defense just a bit to be the kind of unit that can really apply pressure when they’re playing with a lead.  I don’t see any reason the Eagles shouldn’t win the division again next year.

Jets over Colts-

DP:  I am sure that publicly Peyton Manning will express his disappointment that they lost, but on some level I think he knew the team played as well as they could and just didn't have enough left (Unlike New Orleans which should just be embarrased). I think Chris Collinsworth was right when he said that the Jets had the better overall team and that the Manning would have to be better than "4 or 5 people" for the Colts to have a chance. Look at the two line-ups and he was right. Manning is clearly the better QB and the Colts probably have better defensive ends (Freeney and Mathis) but after that its either a tie or the Jets are better. They have a better O-line, better TE (Keller vs Tamme), WR at best is a wash (Wayne and Garcon vs. Homes and Edwards), better running backs (Greene and Tomlinson vs. Adai and Rhodes) and basically the entire defense is better. The Jets to their credit changed up their coverages and basically dared the Colts to run. With Manning not able to counter attack the Blitz, the Colts were held to the one long TD and 3 FGs. All of that and the Colts still almost pulled it off, but I can't say that I am in any way surprised the defense could not hold a 2 point lead with 52 seconds left. All of the Colts weaknesses came back to kill them on that drive: long kick-off return, a couple of intermediate passes, a stupid time out and then one last one-on-one play to Edwards. Game Over. Manning will get killed because his playoff record is now under .500, but he is a bit like Dan Marino in that he gets weak teams to the playoffs that never should have made it and then gets the blame when they lose. As for the Jets, they have been baiting the Pats all week and now they get what they wanted: a chance at revenge.

TJ:  These teams both played poorly.  I thought the Jets’ defense and the Colts’ offense were both OK and cancelled each other out, but the Jets’ offense stinks and the Colts’ D wasn’t good enough to take advantage.  Sanchez played as poorly as I expected him to play (62 QB rating), overthrowing his targets constantly.  He was lucky to have a run game to rely on, but next week we can expect New England to stack the box against the run and watch Sanchez throw the game away with those high passes.

I don’t know what the Colts need to do.  I don’t like their defense at all, and they don’t have the team speed to support all the things Manning is capable of doing.  Their running game is bad.  They were led by Brown with 497 yards this year.  They haven’t had an 1100 yard rusher since Edge James left in 2005, and he had 1506 that year.  Addai topped 1000 in 2006 (1081) and 2007 (1072), but had only 544 in 2008 and 828 in 2009.  Manning can’t have more than 4-5 more peak years in him, so I hope the Colts can retool to take advantage of his prime.

Seaskanks over the Saints-

DP:  I am still in shock about this one and trying to figure out what went wrong. I guess on the simplest level you would say that the 'Skanks were able to counter the Saints attacking defense with long plays against a poor secondary. The 'Skanks had TDs of 38, 45, and 67 yards plus several other big plays plus they got tricked not once but TWICE by a TE falling down and getting up. Roman Harper and Terry Porter both seemed to be having their names called way too often. What is tougher to explain is why the Saints lost their poise so much. It’s almost like after going out 10-0, they believed it would be as easy as everyone said it would to beat the 'Skanks. Then when the 'Skanks struck back they freaked out and started to worry about being the victim of the biggest upset in play-off history. From the 2nd quarter to the end of the game, the Saints looked like they were totally freaked out, stopped playing fundamental football, and started taking way too many chances on defense trying to make a big play. What's funny is that the Saints are one of the last teams I would ever expect to do this (Pitt being the other). Last year they faced way more pressure against the Colts in the Superbowl but they handled it and won. You get a lot of confidence from that kind of win and I would have thought the Saints would have played a lot better under pressure. As for the 'Skanks, it’s off to Chicago. The Bears have to be friggin' excited. I know the 'Skanks beat the Bears earlier in the season, but this is the playoffs. The Bears don't blitz much because they get good pressure from their D-line, so the 'Skanks won't be able to counter with long passes. On Offense, the Bears should be able to scrape up enough points to win. Just think if the Packers upset the Falcons, the Bears could well be hosting the Packers in the NFC title game.

TJ:  I obviously didn’t see this one coming, and even in hindsight, I can’t make much sense of it.  I know the Saints benefitted from an astoundingly lucky turnover ratio to make their superbowl run last year, but I thought they were still an elite team.  The defense is obviously the culprit here, and I think the Doc is right about them constantly overcommitting and looking for the big play.  I guess they’ll try to draft some solid defenders or look to improve the linebacking corps in free agency, but I don’t see the Saints as a Superbowl contender next season.

The ‘Skanks had some luck, yes, but it’s hard not to be impressed with their poise and extremely high level of play on offense.  Hasselbeck had a great game (113 QB rating) and Marshawn Lynch was a revelation running the ball.  The stiff arm in the middle of his long run put Tracy Porter on his ass in one of the most embarrassing highlights I can remember seeing.  This offense is obviously playoff caliber, but the Bears’ defense is a bit different from the Saints’.  The ‘Skanks have two things going for them this weekend: New England showed everyone exactly how you can beat the Bears defense in Week 14, and the Seaskanks went into Chicago and won themselves in Week 6, so the outcome of this game isn’t a foregone conclusion.  I’ll say this, if they can beat the Bears this weekend at Soldier Field, I think we might have to start calling them the Seahawks again.

Wildcard Weekend Picks

New Orleans            -10.5  At Seattle-

DP: This is the kind of game I hate to predict because you are not picking a winner in as much as you are trying to figure out if the Saints will cover 10.5 points. The Saints could have a 7-10 point lead late and just run out the clock because their only motivation is to win, not to cover. So we have to decide if the game will be a blow-out or not. The most important factor for a blow-out is number of possessions and field position. Will it be fast, up tempo game with big plays or will it a slow, plodding game.  Let’s look at the stats!

The pertinent stats- Seattle Offense: 19^th Passing, 31^st Rushing; Defense: 27^th Passing, 21^st Rushing. Saints Offense: Passing 3^rd, Rushing 28^th; Defense: Passing 4^th, Rushing 16^th.  Turnovers: Saints minus 5, Seahawks minus 9.

The first thing that stands out is that this will not be a big day running the ball. The ‘Skanks are a pitiful 31^st overall at 89.0 yards per game. The Saints are not much better at 28^th plus injuries to key running backs have left the Saints with only Reggie Bush (more a pass catching threat) and Julius Jones (who will not play much because of fumbling last week). So everything points to passing. The Saints obviously are good passing with ball with Drew Brees. He has a wide variety of passing options which will make it tough for the ‘Skanks to take away any one threat. The ‘Skanks obviously are hurting at QB with Matt Hasselbeck a shadow of his former self the ‘Skanks are 19^th passing the ball. His top two targets are Mike Williams (65 rec, 751 yards, 2 TD) and Ben Obomanu (30 rec, 494 yards, 4 TDs). I don’t think it’s a stretch to say the Saints will have a much easier time shutting down the ‘Skanks top options.

So the last two things that could turn the game are turnovers and special teams. The Saints are a surprisingly bad -5, the ‘Skanks are unsurprisingly worse at -9. Leon Washington is the only person that genuinely frightens me on the ‘Skank’s roster.

So adding it all up, what do you get? A lot of passing (equals a lot of possessions), the Saints will easily be to take away Seattle’s best offensive options, and turnovers favor the Saints. As much as I would like to buck convention, I will have to take the Saints to easily cover. Pick: New Orleans.

TJ: All that and you didn’t mention the huge Seattle home-field advantage?  I jest, the loud crowd causes just as many false starts for the home team as the away team (see footballoutsiders.com for stats), and the Saints have won a superbowl, so they’re not going to get nervous because the crowd is slightly louder than usual. 

Doc, I think you’re basically correct in your analysis of run vs. pass for the ‘Skanks, but for New Orleans, I dug a little deeper.  Against teams that made the playoffs, New Orleans ran for 112 yards per game with a 4.5 yards per rush average, pretty decent numbers.  Against playoff teams (not including the ‘Skanks), the rusher for 43 yards per game, with 2.3 yards per rush, truly abysmal numbers.  Against the ‘Skanks in Week 11, 112 yards at 3.9 yards per rush.  Two points: 1) the Saints should run mediocre-to-well against the ‘Skanks, and 2) this is more evidence that the ‘Skanks don’t belong in the playoffs.

The other think to note about that Week 11 matchup is that the Saints won 34-19.  Although it was in New Orleans, I look for more of the same this weekend.  I’ll take the Saints to cover.

At Indianapolis       -2.5     NY Jets

DP: I like this line much better. At -2.5 you just pick a winner and hope for the best. Anyway on to the pertinent stats:

Indy is 1^st passing and 29^th rushing. Their Defense is 13^th against the pass and 25^th against the run. The Jets are 22^nd passing, 4^th rushing. Their D is 6^th against the pass and 3^rd against the run. Turnovers- the Colts are -4, the Jets are +4. One thing is interesting about turnovers. The Jets have recovered 16 fumbles but lost only 7. The Juice has a theory that fumbles are basically luck, so maybe this is a sign that things will turn around for the Jets and they will start to lose a few more fumbles? If you believe in momentum the Colts have won 4 in a row, the Jets are 2-3 in their last 5.

This game is hard for me since I am a homer. I am trying to stick with logic and reason. When KC lost and Indy moved up to #3 to face the Jets, I was really happy. The Jets seem a bit over-rated, have really struggled recently, and are prone to giving up TDs when they are blitzing. Once you throw in the whole Foot-Fetish thing, it’s hard not to believe the Jets are a sinking ship that completely lost their confidence after getting embarrassed by the Pats on MNF.

That being said, this is still not a great match-up for the Colts. Revis may be down some, but he still matches up well with Reggie Wayne. If the Colts still had Dallas Clark and Austin Collie, I would be fine with that, but their #2 option is Pierre Garcon (67 rec, 784 yards, 6 TDs) and anyone who has watched him lately knows that he is struggling and that Manning has lost confidence in him.  On the other side of the ball things are also a little deceptive. The Jets seem to have a good rushing game (4^th in the league averaging 148 yards per game) while Indy has a bad rushing defense (25^th giving up 127 yards per game). On paper it looks like the Jets can take away Indy’s best option on offense and then keep Manning off the field by running the ball for sustained drives and giving Mark Sanchez short third down conversions. I said it is a little deceptive, because the Colts rushing D actually played pretty well at the end of the season giving up 51, 80, and 67 yards in their last 3 games (against Chris Johnson of Tenn, Oakland, and MJD against Jax).

Being as fair as I possibly can, I think the game plays out a lot like last year. The Jets come out strong with a combination of runs and aggressive mid-range passes. They get some scoring options early and build a bit of a lead. Manning and the Colts come back later and have a punchers chance against the Jet’s Blitz. The question will be whether the Colts can hold them to FGs or give up TDs. If the Colts can keep the Jets to 6-0 or 10-0 lead then I think they can make it close in the end. If they get up by more than 10 points then they force Manning to ‘press’ his throws; which is when he makes mistakes. I actually like the Jets a little more in this game because of their balance and the Colts lack of receiving options behind Wayne. Pick: Jets.

TJ: So, the thing about a blitzing, scheming defense is that it has to constantly change to keep the opponent from picking upon the patterns and exploiting the inevitable holes.  To do that, a coach keeps a few wrinkles in the bag to break out in important games or in the playoffs.  Sexy Rexy doesn’t seem like the kind of guy who keeps anything in reserve, and I’m guessing he spent his wad against the Pats, Steelers and Chicago in the past 5 weeks.  I’m thinking Manning does his usual film study and knows where all the holes are in this Jets defensive charade.  I mean, shit, Brady basically showed him the game plan in that Week 13 Monday Night Football drubbing, and you can bet Peyton was watching at home with his notebook open.

I think the Doc is right to point out that the Colts D has played well against the run the last three week, but the Jets ran for 106 against Pittsburgh and 124 against Chicago, much better defenses than Indy can muster, and the dropped 276 rushing yards on Buffalo last week, so I don’t think the Colts can shut them down.  They can get to Sanchez, though, and I’d guess they’ll rush the ends hard and pressure the Sanchize into a couple of bad throws.

Final analysis: Peyton makes good decisions and avoids turnovers, but the Jets run well and keep the game close.  Indy wins by 1 point, failing to cover!

Baltimore      -3        At Kansas City

DP: The relevant stats: Baltimore is 20^th passing and 14^th rushing (lower for both than I would have guessed). Their defense is 21^st against the pass and 5^th against the run. KC is 30^th passing and 1^st rushing. Their defense is 17^th and 14^th against the pass and run, respectively. Here we have strength on strength. KC really needs to use the run to set up the pass. If Baltimore can make the Chiefs one-dimensional then it allows Ed Reed to sit back and wait to double cover Dwayne Bowe, the Chiefs one big deep threat. I’m just gonna sit back and look at the big picture. The Ravens are 12-4 but three of those losses game to Pitt (by 3 points), @Falcons (by 5) and @Pats (by 3 in OT). Their one ‘bad’ loss was a week 2 game at Cincy. Last year they went into New England and kicked them around in round #1 of the play-offs.

On the other hand, KC may have 10 wins, but they didn’t beat a single team in the play-offs. They had three ‘decent’ losses @Indy, @Houston, @Oakland, but also got blown out @Denver, @San Diego, and vs. Raiders. Their offensive coordinator has already accepted a job to coach Florida’s offense next year in college (a strange step down from being a pro coordinator).

Final analysis: Jets were a better match-up and I think the Chiefs lost any confidence they might have had by choking last week against the Raiders. Baltimore has experience winning on the road in the play-offs and is used to playing tough games. Pick: Ravens.

TJ: I’d be all over the Ravens if not for one important factor: you’re asking me to back Joe Flacco on the road in a hostile stadium in the playoffs.  I know they went into New England and won in the first round last year, Doc, but they were one of the best rushing teams in the league that year (138yds/gm, 4.7yds/rush, 115 first downs).  This year, their run game has fallen off significantly (114yds/game, 3.8yds/rush, 97 first downs), and so the pressure is on Flacco to make up the difference.  That KC defense isn’t stellar, but they’ll pressure Flacco, and I’ll bet he makes a few mistakes.

Looking closely at the stats, the Ravens’ 2010 defense is basically a carbon copy of their 2009 unit, very good, but not the elite squad they had five years ago.  I think they can hold KC’s awesome run game to a middle-of-the-road day, so the question will be whether the Matt Cassel can put up decent numbers.  I think he benefitted hugely from an easy schedule and that “sneaking up on teams” advantage that a turnaround team like the Chiefs always has during the regular season.  By now, the Ravens know what to expect from this Charlie Weiss offense, and they’ll put Cassel’s appendixless ass in a body bag if he’s not perfect.  I don’t think he’ll be perfect.

Pick: Ravens.

At Philadelphia       -2.5     Green Bay

DP:  Relevant stats- Packers are 5^th passing and 24^th rushing. Their defense is 5^th against the pass and 18^th against the run. The Eagles are 9^th passing and 5^th rushing, their defense is 15^th and 15^th against the pass/run.

Since QB is the most important position on the field, lets look at the match-up.

Michael Vick has been a wonder this year no doubt. But look closer at the number in his first 6 games he had an average rating of 110.7. In the last 6 games he averaged a rating of 90.4. Now that’s still great, but does it mean that defenses are catching up with him? The last game he played against Minnesota was his worst (25/43 for 263 with 1 TD and 1 Int).

Aaron Rodgers also had a great year (rating 101.2). He also has a nice stable of receivers with 4 having at least 500 yards and 7 with at least 20 catches. The Packers certainly need him to play well to win. They lost to New England when he was out and his QB rating in the other five losses were mostly below average (92.5, 75.7, 84.5, 114.5, and 34.7).

This game is by far the hardest for me to pick. The central conflict is that Eagles seem much more balanced on offense (passing, rushing, and when all else fails Vick running), but the Packers just seem to be playing better right now. The Eagles comeback over the Giants was impressive, but let’s not forget they were behind by 21 in the 4^th quarter for good reason. The loss to Minnesota was pathetic and then the game against Dallas was a sloppy, meaningless mess. That’s not a great way to end the year. The Packers meanwhile played the Pats tough then walloped the Giants and held on against the Bears.

Here are the other random thoughts bouncing around in my head:

The Packers short game is terrible. Might be the difference between TDs and FGs.

Both teams lost early in play-offs last year, so they both have experience and hunger, but I would give a slight edge to the Packers.

Andy Reid is pretty good in the early rounds of the play-offs.

In the end I think it will be close, so I’ll take Green Bay and the points, but I’m certainly not confident about it. Pick: Packers.

TJ:  I like everything the Doc had to say.  I think these teams are pretty equal on offense, with the slight edge going to the Eagles due to balance and the possibility of Vick magic on any given play.  However, I’m in love with the Packers’ defense, and think they will be the deciding factor in this game.  If you throw out the New England debacle, the Packers’ D hasn’t given up more than 20 points since Week 7.  Hell they’ve held opponents to 7 points or less 5 out of the last 9 games.  Giving up 7 or less is an amazing performance, and this unit does it consistently.  I think they’re the deciding factor.

My prediction?  The Packers bottle up Vick and generate a couple turnovers to win a relatively low-scoring game, maybe 24-14.