Week 10 picks

@Indy -7 Cincy
TJ: Look, Cincy really hasn’t played that badly (their point differential is only -23), and 5 of their 6 losses are by 8 points or less. Everybody is killing Palmer, but in a league with so many rookies and proven failures playing stopgap QB, he’s probably in the top half of all the starters. So why do I hate this team so much? Don’t know, but even without Austin Collie, I expect Peyton and his boys to stomp on the Bengals at home, and cover this spread with ease.
DP: Indy.

@Jacksonville -1.5 Houston
TJ: Houston can’t stop the pass at all, but the Jags are ranked 28th in the league in passing yardage. But Houston’s run game is phenomenal, and the Jags defense is poor against both the run and pass. Both teams are 4-4, but the Texans seem like a much better team (maybe as a hangover from that incredible Week 1 win over the Colts). I don’t really like either of these teams, but I’m going with my gut and taking Houston.
DP: Houston.

Tennessee -2 @Miami
TJ: The Titans are a strong team, and they’re in the middle of a playoff push, so they have a lot to play for. Maybe the addition of Moss doesn’t turn them into a pass-happy scoring machine, but I think they’re too well-coached and well-put-together to let it hurt their team chemistry, so I think it’s no change at worst. Miami’s showing some desperation with the switch to Pennington, but I don’t think it’ll be enough to make up for aging running backs and a lack of cohesion. I’ll take the Titans to cover for a tough road win and another step toward a Wild Card spot.
DP: Tenn.

Minnesota -1 @Chicago
TJ: Minnesota has 99 problems but the Bears ain’t one. They’ll win big in Chicago (the over/under for sacks by Jared Allen in this game should be 6.5), but I see a final season-ending injury for Favre looming in this game or next week against Green Bay. Then it’s bye bye to Chilli, and the recruitment of Michael Vick and John Gruden begins.
DP: Minn.

@Buffalo -2.5 Detroit
TJ: Detroit was looking so frisky before Matthew Stafford went down. Then they blew the Jets game and have to travel to Buffalo feeling demoralized. The Bills have nothing going for them, but they have to win a game this year, right? And a home game against a banged-up Lions team seems like their best chance to me. Buffalo covers with a field goal in a low-scoring mess of a game.
DP: Detroit.

Jets -3 @Cleveland
TJ: Cleveland has come a long way, and the Jets’ offense is struggling mightily. Nothing cures a quarterback’s ills quicker than a game against Cleveland’s secondary, though, and I expect Sanchez to take advantage. I also think that Jets defense will be able to hurry McCoy and put an end to my man-crush on Peyton Hillis. My heart bleeds for the home dog (pound) in this game, but I have to go with my head and take the Jets to cover the three points.
DP: Jets.

@Tampa Bay -6.5 Carolina
TJ: It Tampa Bay is even decent, they’ll blow out this horrible Carolina team at home. And I think they’re decent. Bucs cover.
DP: Tampa.

KC -1 @Denver
TJ: Playing in Denver can be tough, but pitting the league’s number 1 rushing offense against the league’s 31st-ranked rushing defense means a pounding, no matter where you’re playing the game. Besides, I think this Denver team has given up on their coach, and they know, even with their easy schedule, at 2-6, they don’t have a shot at the playoffs. KC gets the road win and moves one step closer to a first-round playoff loss.
DP:KC.

@San Fran -6 St. Louis
TJ: San Fran is favored by 6 in this game? I know they’re coming off a bye, but remember: they lost in Carolina two weeks ago and then won a crappy game against a bad Denver team in London. Meanwhile, the Rams are 4-4, and a win here would keep them in the division race. Getting six points is too tempting. I’m taking the Rams here.
DP: San Fran

@Arizona -3 Seattle
TJ: Another perplexing line to me. I’m no Seattle fan, but the Cards stink in every aspect of the game except turnover ratio, and I discussed my feelings on that bullshit in five questions this week. Seattle is 4-4, but their last two losses were to surging Raiders and Giants teams. Admittedly, they were BAD losses, but I still think they’re better that the Cards. I’ll take Seattle to pick up a crucial road win, and continue their race toward an 8-8 division championship season.
DP: Seattle.

@Giants -13.5 Dallas
TJ: The Giants have been smoking fools lately (average margin of victory over the last 5 games: 17.2), and this Cowboys team has done nothing but get smoked (average margin of defeat over the last 5 games: 14.4). Sending Grandpa Wade to the Sunny Valley Retirement Complex to play Bingo and shit himself isn’t enough to turn things around. I’ll lay the points and enjoy watching Jason Garrett’s head explode in high definition.
DP: Giants.

@Pittsburgh -4.5 New England
TJ: I’ve heard this start from Mike and Mike and from John Clayton, but since Moss left, Brady’s completion percentage has gone from 70% to 58%. The Pats are doing a decent job of running the ball, but the Steelers have the best rush defense in the league, so all the pressure will be on Brady and his injured foot. The Steelers look like clear favorites here. But after struggling with the Bengals, I don’t know if they’re really all there offensively. I see Big Ben throwing a few costly pick and the Pats playing hard after an embarrassing loss to my Brownies. I’ll take the points and the Pats here.
DP: New England. Feels like a 3 point game.

Philly -3 @Washington
TJ: What a great Monday Night game for the media. They love anything having to do with Vick, and the Shannahan/McNabb feud has Peter King creaming his jeans. I think Philly’s the better team by a wide margin, and they’ve proven the can win on the road (3-1). Washington won the last meeting by 5 points, but Kevin Kolb played most of that game for Philly, and I think they’re a different team with a healthy Vick under center. If the ‘Skins win this game, both teams are still in the hunt for the playoffs, but if the Eagles win, they take clear possession of second in the division and keep the heat on the Giants, and DC goes into a tailspin. That’s exactly what I see happening. Pick: Philly.
DP: Philly.