Week 16 Analysis

DP: Well Juice, the end of the regular season is starting to become a reality for me and as much as I am looking forward to the play-offs, it also means a cold, cold February with nothing but bad college and NBA basketball. Anyway, let's move on to the games where some things finally became clear:

Pitt over Carolina-

DP: Carolina is now on the clock and probably looking for a new head coach. Jimmy Clausen has not done anywhere near enough to win the starting job which means that Carolina probably needs help everywhere but RB. The Steelers meanwhile are taking care of business en route to the #2 seed. Cleveland is all that stands between them and a Bye week and I don't think Cleveland can handle a motivated Steeler team.

TJ:  If Carolina’s front office has any brains at all, they’ll start shopping that #1 pick right now and try to get a couple of first rounders in return.  They’re not going anywhere next year, with or without Andrew Luck, so I’d want more future draft picks.  On the other hand, every talking head with an NFL opinion has said that the good head coaching candidates consider the QB a strong selling point for any team trying to lure them.  So if Carolina wants to bring in a marquee head coach (think Cowher or Gruden), maybe having Andrew Luck would be a serious selling point.  Either way, I wouldn’t want anything to do with this franchise if I were a prime time coaching candidate.  The Steelers are solid, and if Big Ben and Polamalu stay healthy, they’ll be a force in the playoffs.

Cardinals over Cowboys-

DP: The Cards are 31st in rushing, 31st in passing and 30th in run defense. Somehow they have 5 wins because they have 7 fumble recoveries for TD, 3 INT for TD, 2 kick-off returns for TD, and a fake kick run in a for a TD. That's an amazing 13 TDs! Almost 1 per game. The entire offense only has 18 TDs. The Cowboys continue to invent ways to lose. After giving up two TD for INTs, they come all the way back from a 21-3 deficit to take a lead with 1 minute to go. They then miss the PAT and give up a 48 yard FG with 5 seconds left to lose the game. This is the logic I fail to understand. Last year the Cowboys had a kicker for PATs and FGs and a 'kick-off' specialist' to increase the number of touchbacks and improve field position. This year they decided they wanted the extra roster spot so they were going to go with one kicker. Wouldn't you keep the kicker and give up the 'kick-off specialist'? I mean isn't making FGs and PATs more important than touch-backs? Cutting corners like this is one of the reasons the Cowboys crap the bed more than any team in the NFL.

TJ:  Your logic sounds right to me, Doc, but Grandpa Wade couldn’t manage the clock, understand down-and-distance, or tie his own shoes, and you want him to make informed decisions on special teams personnel?  Maybe Garret should have corrected that mistake when he took over, but he had a lot more to worry about than the kicker.  I loved your list of ridiculously lucky Cardinals’ touchdowns.  I think they’re a 2-14 team without that luck.  I guess Warner and Boldin were even more valuable than we thought.

Pats over Bills-

DP: The Juice is right, I over analyzed this game. The gambling Gods offered up a Christmas present with a tiny 7.5 line and I was a bad gift receiver. Just idiotic. The Pats are clearly the team to beat, so why do I feel they are flawed and could easily lose in the play-offs to the Steelers or Ravens? It just feels like they peaked too early and can't keep this up without someone figuring out how to stop their short passing game. They have already played all of their major threats in the play-offs (Steelers, Ravens, Jets X2, and maybe the Colts). We'll see if one of them can figure it out the second time around.

TJ:  A good point by the Doc: the best teams the Pats will face in the AFC playoffs have already seen them.  Can they use that experience to scheme against the Pats efficient offense?  I think it comes down to forcing Brady into mistakes, which is tough to do with the way he’s playing (24 TDs and no INTs in the last 10 games).  It requires zone-blitzes and shifting coverages that prevent pre-snap reads, as well as excellent athletes at every position: DBs than can close rapidly and ball-hawk from unexpected positions, LBs that can cover tight ends as well as provide support against the run, and down linemen who can beat the single-team to pressure the QB on one down and drop into the short zone to jump the slant route on the next.  When healthy, Pittsburgh can do all these things.  I saw it from Green Bay in a couple of games, too, but not lately.  Chicago and Baltimore used to have this type of defense, but I don’t think they have it this year.  The Jets just blitz and hope they get lucky.  Against the Pats, that just gets you a 45-3 ass whipping.

Bears over the Jets-

DP: Most of the time my ramblings turn out to be utter crap, so I need to brag a little when I am right on the money. This game was won in the 3rd quarter when Jay Cutler threw for 3 long TDs. The Jets have now given up 24 passing TDs this season compared to 8 last year. The Jets D is not nearly as good as they have been telling us. This win now sets up a show down next week with the Packers. Assuming the Eagles win on Tuesday, then the Bears will be playing for the #2 seed while the Packers will be playing for a wild-card. That's a nice match-up. The Bears seem like the wild-card of the play-offs. They have great strengths (rushing the passer with their D-line, long TDs, kick-off returns) and huge weaknesses (pass protection). The Jets meanwhile seem to be fading and now I wonder if they can even beat the Chiefs. How is that possible?

TJ:  We’ve said it from day one: the Jets are a weak team that had early success by blitzing the shit out of everybody before their offenses were on track, and by capitalizing on a second-year quarterback who was playing above his ability.  Other teams now have offensive rhythm, they’ve had plenty of time to scheme against the Jets’ blitz packages, and Sanchez has come down to earth.  I’ll be shocked if they win in Arrowhead.  The Bears are a strange team.  They can explode offensively (hanging 40 on the Vikes) or they can get shut down (scoring only 7 against New England).  I think the Pack takes it to them this week, and they wind up with no momentum and an early playoff loss.

Ravens over Browns-

DP: For some reason, I was most impressed this weekend by the Ravens and Steelers winning. There is something that can be said for a workmanlike victory over a bad team. Just taking care of business. If the Pats are #1 in the AFC, the Steelers and Ravens are a clear #2a and #2b. Unfortunately, one of these teams will probably get the Colts next week. They deserve better.

TJ:  I can’t figure out if that last sentence means you think the Colts are good or bad.  Either way, I agree that the Ravens have put together a nice season and will be dangerous in the playoffs.  They have an excellent run defense, but their pass defense is middle-of-the-road (ranked 15^th), and I still don’t trust their offense to put up big numbers.  Although there’s still a chance that their all-star receiver corps will start clicking with Flacco, their run game has taken a step back from last year (137.5 yd/gm to 115.5 yd/gm).  They need luck to make a playoff run, so I won’t bet on them to make it past the second round.

Chiefs over Titans-

DP: Maybe the Juice will give me some credit now for my KC love all season. It hasn't always been pretty, but at least the Chiefs know exactly who they are: decent D, running game sets up the pass, no turnovers. I think a possible Jets-Chiefs matchup would be fascinating. The Jets clearly have more talent, but the Chiefs seem built to take on the Jets. Rush the ball and wait for long TDs on biltzes. I don't think the Jets’ offense scares the Chiefs D that much and the Chiefs have a big home field advantage. Could be a great game.

TJ:  OK, I’ll give the Doc credit for picking the Chiefs to win this division early.  I also agree that they should beat the Jets easily in round 1.  Home field is huge for them.  But I can’t see any way for them to win in Foxboro, Three Rivers, or Baltimore.  Maybe next year, if their front office is as smart again in this offseason as it was in the last.

Rams over 49ers-

DP: The Rams put it together enough to finally put the 9ers out of their misery (and Mike Singletary as well). San Fran has to be on the list of most disappointing teams along with Dallas, San Diego and Minny. For some reason, I am having visions of Donovan McNabb in a 49er uni next year. If they could get a real coach and offensive coordinator next year, I could see McNabb leading this team to 8 or 9 wins. The Rams win now sets up a winner takes all NFC West showdown with Seattle next week. 7-9 is still on the table if the Seahawks win, otherwise the 8-8 Rams would be hosting a salivating New Orleans Saints team next week.

TJ:  The Rams are the NFC West team of the future.  Unfortunately, the NFC West has no team of the present.  Go Seaskanks!!!

Lions over Dolphins-

DP: I was feeling really good about a Miami cover until a 17 point meltdown in the final minutes of the game. The Lions are clearly a team on the upswing with 2 straight road wins. The Lions have one more year of drafting some top-10 talent before they will be an early sleeper pick for 2011. I have no idea what direction the Dolphins are headed in. The current team led by Henne seems locked into mediocrity with the Pats and Jets set up much better in the long run. Maybe it is time to fire the coach and bring in Cowher.

TJ:  I’ll use that same adjective I’ve been using all year for the Lions: scrappy.  They’d easily be the NFC West champs if they were lucky enough to play in that division (they beat the Rams 44-6 in their only West matchup).  Miami turned the league on its ear last year with the Wildcat offense, then played this whole season vanilla even though they don’t have a decent QB.  How the fuck does that make sense?  Normally, I’d want to give a coach at least 4-5 years to find success before I think he should be fired, but with Parcells jumping ship, I think maybe Sparano’s days should be numbered.

Redskins over Jags-

DP: Kind of an ugly game really. The Jags are a mediocre team that is just plain bad with MJD out. They have one more shot next week to win the AFC South if the Colts stumble against the Titans. If not it will be a bitter off-season for both teams. The Jags seem content to slide by as a second rate franchise that puts together a run every few years. The LA rumors will certainly pick up again and they will face difficult decisions at coach and QB. The Redskins are one of the glamour franchises that basically shoots themselves in the foot every year with their desperation to win immediately. I have no faith in the unholy Shanahan-Shanahan alliance with Rex Grossman. Like Mike Ditka said, "they are trying to see if they have a back-up when they don't have a starter."  Ouch.

TJ:  Can’t believe I thought the AFC South was one of the strongest divisions at the beginning of the season.  Always hated the Jags, though, and knew the Colts would win that division even during their little losing streak.  The Doc is right, the Jags are mediocre, and don’t have the personnel to get better.  The Redskins aren’t going anywhere with Grossman in the long term.  This guy was given seventeen chances with the Bears, and those Bears teams were much better than the current Redskins incarnation.  I’ll be surprised if the Shannahan experience lasts through next season.

Bengals over Chargers-

DP: This is the game that should clearly get Norv Turner fired. I can't think of a better illustration of the 2010 Chargers than crushing the 49ers at home last Thursday, then crapping the bed at Cincy with the season on the line. I like John Gruden in this spot. After working for Al Davis, I think he would be fine in San Diego and his offensive skills would be perfect with the talent on the Chargers.

TJ:  Gruden is dying to coach Phillip Rivers, Doc, so I think you’re dead-on.  They need to revamp the defense as well, so maybe they could get one of the recently-canned head coaches to take the D coordinator spot (Singletary, are you listening?).  This would have run roughshod over the division if they were run half as well as the Chiefs.

Bronocs over Texans-

DP: Certainly Tim Tebow will be the story, but let’s stop to look back at the Texans. They were a big pre-season sleeper favorite, then beat the Colts in Week 1. After starting 4-2, they are now 1-9, in large part because their secondary is the worst in the league. Turns out the Colts had the right attitude, it was just one game and didn't prove anything. This is the other team that needs a change and giving Bill Cowher a call might be the right move. The offense seems fine and Cowher could come in and straighten out the defense and just steady the ship overall. The Broncos will have a nice pick in the top 5 and another year with Tebow. They could probably trade Kyle Orten for a mid-round pick. Now the only question is who wants to take on this mess?

TJ:  Throughout the Shannahan years, there was one constant that made the Broncos excellent: the best offensive line in football.  They ran a zone-blocking stretch run scheme that made every crappy running back they picked up look like Jim Brown, and their pass blocking made a pocket even a 38-year-old John Elway could throw from.  Now, they want to fix all their problems by changing QB’s (Cutler) and coaches (McDaniel) and receivers (Marshall).  What the fuck, Pat Bowlen?  Use your eyes!  The Texans could be better coached, it’s true, but they really need a new defensive backfield.  I like their run game and they have a decent foundation on both sides of the ball.  These are the reasons I might get sucked into picking them as a sleeper again next year.  Unless they hire Wade Phillips.

Colts over Raiders-

DP: This game brought up a fascinating scenario. Shortly after Jacoby Ford ran the opening kick-off back for a TD, the Jags lost to the Redskins in OT. That meant that the outcome of the Raiders game WAS COMPLETELY IRRELEVANT. That’s right, it didn't matter win or lose. Because of the tie breakers, the only thing that matters is beating the Titans next week. So at this point, with all of the Colts injuries, would you pull the starters including Manning? The Colts kept the starters in and ended up winning in part because their crappy running game actually out-rushed the Raiders, but it is an interesting question. If Manning or some other key starter was injured, you can bet the coach would have been killed on talk radio.

TJ: The Colts will kill the Titans this week and be ready to surprise people in the playoffs.  If they get the Ravens, I might even pick them, because I think even the Colts patchwork defense might be able to hold the Ravens under 27, and Peyton can certainly score in bunches on any given night.  I like some of the things the Raiders did this year, and their run game has certainly shown flashes of brilliance.  I just don’t know what they can do in the offseason to improve.  A couple of fat-boy run-stoppers on the D-line and a decent receiver or two might be the answers.  With that run game and more solid defense, a game-manager like Jason Campbell could be really successful with this group.  We’ll see what crazy Al Davis comes up with, though.

Packers over Giants-

DP: Well I guess the 6 TO blow out to the Packers answered the question of how New York would respond to the last minute loss to Philly: not good. In the span of 1 game and 7 1/2 minutes, the Giants have gone from possible #2 seed to possibly out of the play-offs entirely. Another game where Bill Cowher must be sitting back and smiling. As for the Packers- I guess the Bears- Packers game is now the clear choice for the prime-time game (unless you are dying to see the Rams and Seaskanks battle to for the NFC Least). A Packers win would set up a likely #3-#6 rematch with the Bears next week in Chicago while a Bears win would propel them to the #2 seed and a possible #6 Giants- #3 Philly rematch in Philly for round one.

TJ:  The Pack got lucky to get so many turnovers, but their defense is certainly playing terrific (apart from that Pats game, they’ve given up only 10 points per game over the last 8 weeks).  With a healthy Rodgers, I really like the Pack to make postseason noise.  The Giants should be ashamed of themselves.  What a shitty holiday gift to give their fans.

 Bucs over Seaskanks-

DP: This was the other interesting result: with the Rams beating the 9ers earlier, it meant that the result of the game was again irrelevant. Win or lose, the 'Skanks would be playing the Rams for the right to represent the NFC Least in the playoffs. Turns out that their QB was injured, leading to Charlie Whitehurst's 11-18 for 66 yards explosion. I will steal a page from Bill Simmons’ book and try and guess the line for the Rams-Seaskanks. I'm gonna go pick 'em. (I could be convinced to go with Rams -1 as well). At any rate, 7-9 is still on the table and that couldn't make me happier. The Bucs still have an outside shot at the play-offs but will need the following: Beat New Orleans (unlikely), Packers lose to Bears (possible),  Giants lose to Redskins (possible). That is long odds. The Bucs should look on the bright side: Josh Freeman has 3196 yards, 60.3% completions, 23 TDs, 6 INT and a 93.6 rating and he is 22. Plus they have young talent all around him and another year of drafting ahead. That's not bad. 

TJ:  The Bucs have a great long-term outlook, but the Falcons and Saints don’t look like they’re going to drop off a cliff this offseason either.  I really want to root for the ‘Skanks and the 7-9 playoff team scenario, but then I remember Pete Carrol is coaching them, and I hate them again.  Can’t we just grant byes to 3 NFC teams and forget the West exists?

New Orleans over Atlanta-

DP: This game kind of confirmed for me my major worry about Atlanta. They may have talent and be well coached and disciplined in the regular season, but do they have an extra notch for the big games to come? The really successful teams in the past decade (New England, Pitt, and to some extent Indy and Baltimore) all can play with greater intensity during the important games in the regular season and the playoffs. If you look at Atlanta's schedule, their 3 'premiere' wins were @New Orleans (a game they should have lost if Hartley could make a short FG), and at home against the Ravens (26-21) and the Packers (20-17). There other 3 'big' games they all lost: @Pitt, @Philly, and New Orleans. Atlanta built up their nice 12-3 record mainly by avoiding upsets to lesser teams. They were 3-3 against the top competition and 9-0 against everyone else (including Arizona, San Fran, Cincy, Cleveland, St. Louis, Seattle, and Carolina). Avoiding upsets in the regular season is important, but I am not sure it is a great predictor of post-season success. 

TJ:  I think it’s hard to judge Atlanta for this game, since the Saints were really fired up and they are the defending champs and all.  I think Atlanta needs to remember how they got to 12-3: balance on both sides of the ball and no mistakes.  They need to kill Carolina this week, then rest up for a couple of tough playoff games on their home turf.  The Saints did exactly what they had to do to win, but 17 points won’t get it done in the playoffs.  Brees better get rid of the ball faster (no more tipped passes by defensive ends, Drew) and they need to platoon those three RBs (Bush, Ivory, and Thomas) to really push the run game and screen game.  They aren’t my favorite, but it’s far from impossible to imagine the Saints back in the big game.

Minny over Philly-

DP: One of the truly shocking results of the year. Philly had a ton to play for, extra time and a clear field for their fast team. Minny was coming off three straight weeks of chaos caused by the weather, a third string QB and interim coach and Minny handed it to the Eagles. Now the Bears are the #2 seed (and have nothing to lay for against the Packers) and the Eagles are the #3 (and have nothing to play for against the Cowboys). I guess NBC did the right thing by flexing the Rams/Skanks game into Primetime.  

TJ:  Vick looked hurt.  End of story.  If he’s not healthy (and he was very gimpy from the first series), this team is in big trouble.  They need to put Dallas away early and rest their franchise QB for what looks to be a brutal playoff run as every defense in the NFC keys directly on his legs.

Playoff Picture:

DP: I am really excited about the NFC playoffs. If you look at the top 5 teams (Atlanta, Chicago, Philly, New Orleans and likely the Packers), I think they are all flawed teams with great strengths. Depending on the match-up I could easily see any of these 5 beating each other. So wild-card weekend will probably be: Philly-Packers re-match from week 1 (or else Giants or Bucs if the Packers lose to the Bears) and New Orelans @Rams/'Skanks. 

As for the AFC, it looks like Pats #1, (likely) Steelers #2, Chiefs #3, and Colts (or Jags) #4. Baltimore gets the #5 (and a trip to Indy) with a win over the Bengals leaving the Jets to visit Arrowhead. That's not a bad line-up and means the Pats would get the Colts/Ravens/Jets in their first game, followed by a possible re-match with the Steelers. That is not an easy road.

TJ:  This playoff is as unpredictable as any in a long time.  Obviously, I have to pick the Pats as the favorite, but the rest is anybody’s guess.  And there’s no doubt the Pats can be beat.  I’d love to see the Pack make a run to a superbowl win just to hear Favre’s heart breaking.  Any game involving Philly is bound to be exciting.  And if we get a Ravens-Steelers matchup, I expect the fines for big hits to exceed the TV proceeds.  Should be fun.

Week 16 Redux

The Juice and I have agreed to open up the Minny-Philly game to account for the change in date due to the snow storm. My feelings is that Minny has now checked out mentally. First there was the postponement and move to Detroit due to the Metrodome's collapse, then there was the move outside last week and now trapped in Philly in another storm. With all of the bad weather and losing I bet they have sent their families off to their summer homes and are just waiting to pack up the U-Haul and move their with them. On the flip side Philly has extra motivation to ring up some points and finish Minny early so they can rest some starters before their next game on Sunday. Pick: Eagles.

Week 16 Picks

At Miami         -3.5      Detroit

DP: Wow, this one is tough because we have two weird streaks going against each other. Miami is 1-6 @home (which would predict a loss), but they have also alternated wins and losses since week 4 (since they lost last week, it would predict a win). I guess I will split the difference and say Miami wins but fails to cover. Pick: Lions.

TJ: I don’t think the alternating wins and losses streak is anything but a coincidence, and it doesn’t make sense to factor it in.  Miami has stunk at home, it’s true, and I like Detroit’s rookie Suh to put tons of pressure on Chad Henne.  Miami has been a huge disappointment, but it’s hard to pick Detroit to put up any points on the road.  I think I’ll lay the 3.5 and take the ‘Phins.

           

At Philadelphia          -14.5   Minnesota     

DP: I have to say I was quite surprised by two things: first the line of the game. Philly may have an explosive offense but they have won by 14.5+ points only twice this year. Second, why on Earth did NBC keep this as the Primetime game? I can count 5 games in which both teams are in the play-off race. Wouldn’t you love to see Jets-Bears or Giants-Packers? Anyway, I don’t think Favre plays and while that may decrease the Vikings chances of winning, it paradoxically improves their chances of beating the spread. Why? They will simplify the playbook for Joe Webb, run the ball more, and punt. All of that means fewer possessions for the Eagles and a longer field. Favre’s turnovers are what fuel the blow-out losses. I think the Vikings play it conservatively, which means low scoring and close. Pick: Vikings.

TJ:  I love the Doc’s analysis, and think he’s exactly right about Favre’s effect on the Vike’s chances to cover.  Also, Philly may have some trouble maintaining concentration after the wild ride they had last week.  I’ll take Minny and the points.

At Jacksonville           -7         Washington  

DP: The Redskins have two modes: winning ugly and losing really ugly. The Jags are certainly going to be desperate as they try to catch the Colts for the division title. The Redskins meanwhile are a complete mess. I suspect Jones-Drew plays because the game means so much to the Jags, but I am not sure how much he can provide. The Jags have had a few lucky bounces (58 yard FG, Hail-Mary pass), I think luck catches up with them a little and the Redskins sneak up on them. Pick: ‘Skins

TJ:  The Jags are the better team, playing at home, and have a shot at the playoffs.  I know the line is a little high, but I have to take the Jags.

At St. Louis     -2.5      San Francisco           

DP: Well Troy Smith is back to starting for the 49ers. What does this mean? It means the 49ers have no fucking idea what they are doing. OK, let’s start adding up the negatives again. The Rams have not had a win over a good team since Week 6 (San Diego) and been blown out the last two weeks. Sam Bradford’s QB rating has dropped each of the past 3 weeks (66, 53, 41). San Fran actually has a decent run D (7^th overall) which negates the one Rams strength (Steven Jackson). As for San Fran, Troy Smith is not terrible (3-2 record, QB rating of 80). Can this make up for traveling across the country to play an early game? I hope so. Pick: 49ers.

TJ:  I want the 9ers to win to set up the 7-9 NFC West Champ scenario, but it’s hard to back them on the road.  The Doc almost had me convinced with that anti-Rams argument, but like the Jags, they’re the better team and they have something to play for, so I’ll take the Rams to cover.

At Tampa Bay            -6         Seattle            

DP: This is another pairing of two declining teams. Seattle has lost 4 out of 5 by 15, 18, 19, and 16 points, ouch (the lone win was over dreadful Carolina). Their last win that wasn’t Carolina or Arizona was Week 6. Matt Hasselbeck has thrown 10 INTs in 4 games. Plus Seattle is 2-5 on the road and has to travel across the country. None of this is promising. On the other side Tampa is 8-6 and has a nice balanced attack. Unfortunately, they are a young team without much depth and have lost 5 starters on defense in the last few weeks. They have lost 3 out 4 games and have not beaten a single team with a winning record this year. Amazingly the 8-6 Bucs are in a worse position for the play-offs. If the Rams beat the 49ers in the early game, then the ‘Skanks can lose the game and still have a shot to win the NFC West by beating St. Louis in Week 17 at home. In a game like this you go back to basics and Seattle is 31^st running the ball and 21^st against the run (Tampa is 6^th in the NFL running the ball). Pick: Bucs.

TJ: Same analysis for the third straight game: Tampa is the better team, they’re playing at home, and they still have something to play for.  I’ll take the Bucs to cover.

New England             -7.5      At Buffalo      

DP: On first blush this looks like a slam dunk. The Pats are the hottest team in the league and are trying to wrap up the #1 seed in the AFC playing a 4-11 Buffalo team that they have beat 18 out of 19 times since 2001. Yikes. But on the other hand, Bill Belichek is famous for ‘pulling out just enough to win’ in these sorts of games. The Bills have managed to keep the games close recently (losing by 8, 7, and 1 in the last three meetings) and scored 30 points in week Week 3 against the Pats- the most points they have given up this year. The Bills have lost by more than 7 only once since their Bye in week 6. The line started at 9 and was bet down to 7.5 which means the sharps like the Bills to sneak up on the Pats. So do I. Pick: Bills.

TJ: The Doc has’t done this much overanalysis since his first psych rotation in med school.  Pats are much better and will scheme Fitzpatrick to induce turnovers.  They’ll win handily and cover the 7.5.

At Chicago      -1         NY Jets

DP: This is a surprisingly even match-up. Both teams have strong defenses that like the pressure the QB. The Jets are actually 10^th in the league in sacks (35) and the Bears are 12^th (32), I would have guessed that they were both higher. Both teams have mediocre to shaky to QB/O-line play. The Bears have given up an NFL leading 48 sacks. As a team the Bears have 20 TDs and 18 INTs with a rating of 81.4. The Jets have allowed only 27 sacks with 17 TDs, 12 INTs and a rating of 75.5. On paper the game comes down to the Jets Blitz vs. the Bears O-line. The Jets actually are susceptible to TD passes off the Blitz and that is a specialty of the Cutler and the Bears. If the Mike Martz can figure out how to give Cutler time, he will knock-out the Jets with a deep counter attack. I like the Bears @home to muster up enough offense pull out the game and stay even with the Eagles. Pick: Bears.

TJ: Just as the Jet’s blitz-o-rama style defense is exactly wrong against the Pats quick pass game and poised QB play, it’s exactly right against Cutler’s pocket style.  I don’t know if any QB in the history of the league is worse at throwing the ball away.  I think the Jets rack up 5 sacks and 3 picks, just enough to edge out the win.

Baltimore       -3.5      At Cleveland

DP: On paper this one looks bad for the Brownies. The Ravens are still fighting with the Steelers for the #2 seed (and with the Jets for the #1 WC). They have a balanced offense and are 6^th against the run (which is the Browns one strength with Peyton Hillis). The Ravens weakness is their secondary which is prone to letting good passing teams get back into the game. The Browns do not have a good passing game (28^th in the league). I think this one could be a little closer than people think, but the Ravens will do enough in the end to pull away. Pick: Ravens.

TJ: Bad matchup for the Browns.  Their offense is one-dimensional, and the Ravens will key on Hillis.  The Browns D doesn’t match up well either, and I see them giving up some big plays as well.  Ravens cover.

At Kansas City            -5         Tennessee

DP: Amazing stat of the week: Both the 6-8 Titans and the 9-5 Chiefs score 23.0 points a game and allow 20.1 points a game. Both teams like to run the ball, so let’s start there. The Titans are 12 in the league running the ball and the Chiefs are 13^th stopping the running. The Chiefs are 1^st in the NFL rushing and the Titans are 17^th stopping the run. As for passing, KC has the more productive QB (Cassel) and the more dangerous receiver (Bowe). KC is 6-0 @home and fighting to fend off the Chargers. Seems like a perfect game to run early to set up the deep pass. Pick: Chiefs.

TJ:  Chiefs: better team, at home, something to play for.  Sound familiar?  They’ll cover.

Indianapolis   -3         At Oakland    

DP: So I have been down on the Colts all season and out of fairness, I have been mostly right. But you, dear reader, want more than the paranoid ravings of a Colt fan. So here are the stats. The Colts are 1-3 on the road as a favorite. The Raiders are 2-1 as home ‘dogs. The Colts have the worst rushing offense in the league and are 28^th against the run. The Raiders meanwhile are second in the league running the ball. The Colts are first in league passing, but the Raiders are 5^th against the pass, Austin Collie is gone and Nnamdi Asomugha looks like he is good start against Reggie Wayne. Pick: Raiders.

TJ: The Raiders are done in the playoff race, and the Colts will be desperate to stay with the Jags.  Peyton will write another chapter in his hall-of-fame autobiography by winning these last two games to improbably make the playoffs.  Colts cover.

Houston         -2.5      At Denver      

DP: Oh who the hell knows? I will take the home dogs. Pick: Broncos.

TJ:  Crap game.  I hate Denver worse.  Houston covers.

At Green Bay             -3         NY Giants      

DP: I will forgo research on this one as well. I just like the way Green Bay is still fighting for their lives at this point of this of the season. The Giants seem to have peaked too early and are fading. I think the return of Aaron Rodgers inspires the Packers and they go on to easily cover at home. Pick: Packers.

TJ:  I love the Packers defense to create some confusion for the Giants.  Rodgers is back and plays well to set up the playoff run.  Pack cover easily.

San Diego       -7.5      At Cincinnati

DP: Cincy seems to have packed it in for the year. They are sitting Ochocinco and Terrell Owens to look at the young receivers and Carson Palmer looks like a shell of himself. San Diego still has things to play for and I think that makes a big difference. Pick: Chargers.

TJ:  I thought Cincy was done last week, then they go and embarrass my Brownies.  And no one likes to travel across the country to play in bad weather when they’re scrapping for a playoff spot.  Even so, I can’t see a way for the Bungles to slow down that Phillip Rivers offense.  Chargers are the pick.

                                               

At Atlanta       -2.5      New Orleans

DP: MNF must be thrilled to get this game even if the Saints loss to New Orleans took some of the steam away from it last week. At any rate, I like the Saints for some reason. I think the Falcons have gotten a little lucky and that seems to even out over the season. The Falcons will still get the #1 seed in the NFC, but I think the Saints want to give them a little something to think about. Pick: Saints.

TJ:  Great game.  Atlanta will still be motivated since they’re playing for the all-important home-field advantage.  The Saints are coming together, but they’re playing the best team in the conference on the road.  If the season has tought us one thing, it’s that you don’t bet against Atlanta at home.  Dirty Birds cover.

5 Questions for Week 15

Pop Quiz for The Juice

1. Let’s look back in time a little bit to Week 1. Which result was the best predictor of how the season would play out?

a. Bears over Lions- getting the surprising Bears off to a good start.

b. Redskins over Cowboys- foreshadowing the Cowboys struggles

c. Chiefs over Chargers- did this foretell the Chiefs rise or the Chargers fall?

d. Texans over Colts- Should we have known then that the Colts would struggle.

e. Packers over Eagles- Michael Vick emerges as a star QB.

Well, not many of these results were as good a predictor as I would have thought.  Let’s look at them:

a.    The Lions are scrappier than expected, but they did wind up with a poor record, and the Bears are vulnerable to good teams (like the Pats), but they are the division champs and are in contention for a first-round bye.  So this game did predict the season results well, but I’m not sure anyone was really surprised by the Bears beating the Lions even then.

b.    This was a bigger surprise, and certainly a portent for the Cowboys’ atrocious first half.  However, the ‘Skins didn’t live up to this result at all, and have turned out to be quite a circus and a clusterfuck.

c.    Looking at things as they stand right now, I’m not sure that the Chiefs will beat out the Chargers for the division, so I can’t call this a great predictor just yet.  I certainly wasn’t expecting the Chargers to be quite so bad ober the first half of the season, though, and I think Sean Merriman getting off the Juice hurt this team more than anything.

d.    This was definitely an important game as far as showing us the Colts were in trouble, but the Texans were (as they have been in the past) big-time pretenders.

e.    Now, the emergence of Michael Vick has to be the story of the season, and his play in this game was definitely a predictor thereof.  This was a great performance, and Vick has done nothing but improve since.  This game gets my vote as the best (or at least most important) predictor of the season from Week 1.

2. Most people could probably guess the top 4 QBs in the league statistically (Brady, Rivers, Vick, and Rodgers). But let’s play a quiz. Match the following 5 stats lines with the following 5 QBs: Jay Cutler, Matt Cassel, Ryan Fitzpatrick, David Garrard, and Mark Sanchez (answers at bottom). Would you say that statistics reflect the play of the QBs?

            Comp%          TD/INT            Rating             Rank by QB rating

a.         59.3                 24/5                 96.2                5

b.         65.2                 22/13               93.2                 9

c.         61.7                 20/13               89.6                 15

d.         58.7                 23/12               85.9                 19

e.         54.0                 16/12               74.6                 28

            So, I got a couple of these wrong, mostly because I overestimated Sanchez and underestimated Cassel.  I think that says a couple of things.  First, that media coverage influences our perceptions of the players to a huge extent, such that all the hype Sanchez has gotten by playing in NYC overshadows his mediocre stats while Cassel’s excellent season gets little credit because he plays in a small market.  Cutler was about as mediocre as I thought and Fitzpatrick has had a really nice season considering the talent he’s got to work with on the Bills.  The real surprise is Garrard, whose stats suggest he languishing on a Jacksonville team that nobody gives a crap about.  I’d love to see him traded to a more prominent team and see how much success he might have.

3. Which game should get moved into the primetime slot for the final week of Sunday night football?

a. Bears-Packers

b. Bucs-Saints

c. Raiders-Chiefs

d. Rams-Seaskanks

If the Packers still have a shot at the Wild Card, I’d absolutely go with Bears-Packers, but I can see an argument for Rams-Skanks if there’s a possibility of a 7-9 NFC West Champ, just for the awful novelty of the game.  If the Bucs hadn’t stumbled lately, their game with the Saints would merit strong consideration, but I can’t see any reason to care about Raiders-Chiefs, even if the division were on the line, since I feel like either team would be first-round fodder, while their record lacks the novelty of the NFC West crapfest.  So, my verdict is Bears-Pack.

4. Which team would give the Pats the most trouble in the AFC playoffs?

a. Steelers

b. Ravens

c. Jets

d. Colts

e. Chargers

I think the Patriots will wind up in the Superbowl unless they beat themselves.  That having been said, the Ravens and Steelers both have defensive personnel and coaching creativity to disrupt the Pats’ short passing game.  As the Pack showed us, pressuring Brady with only four rushers and dropping various players into short zones that aren’t easily predicted by formation or down-and-distance is the only way to control the Pats.  I don’t think the Jets can do it with their over-Blitzing.  And I don’t think the Colts and Chargers can put up the 60 points they would need to beat the Pats with their weak defenses.  If I have to pick one team, it’s the Steelers, since I trust their offense more, and Polamalu, when healthy, can keep any game within reach with his crazy athleticism and instinct for the ball.

5. Which team would give the Falcons the most trouble in the NFC playoffs?

a. Bears

b. Eagles

c. Saints

d. Giants

e. Packers

The obvious pick is the Eagles, and I think they’re most likely to make it, but I’m going to say the Pack.  If they can get healthy and get that far, I think their offense can just keep up, and their defense is terrific, with some amazing playmaking and ballhawking skills.  As I said with the Steelers above, playing unpredictable and creative defenses, generating turnovers, and pressuring the QB with four rushers (all things that Pack can do) are the keys to beating a better team in the playoffs.  All that having been said, if Atlanta locks up homefield, which they look likely to do, they’re going to be really tough for anyone in the NFC to beat, and I won’t be betting against them.

Bonus question: The NBA is likely headed for a year long lockout. If the 2011-2012

season is lost, how should the 2012 draft be conducted?

a. Repeat order as 2011, use the same lottery results

b. Have another lottery using the standings from the 2010-2011 season

c. No lottery, just inverse ordering based on record from 2010-2011 season

I think option “a” is the only logical choice.  You can’t redo the lottery and take picks away from teams that already won them, and having no lottery at all gives an incredible incentive to tank games (even though the season would be over before this happens, I just think it would be a bad precedent).  Maybe the right thing to do, though, is to contract 4-8 teams, like we proposed earlier in the season, and have a redone draft stocked with the players from those teams, as well as the incoming college kids.  Certainly makes the most economic sense, and I think it would be best for the sport in the long run.

Answers: a-Cassel, b-Garrad, c-Cutler, d-Fitzpatrick, e-Sanchez

TNF Picks

@Pitt -14.5 vs. Carolina

DP:  A little research from ESPN shows how important Troy Polamalu is to this team "The Steelers are 14-4 with him over the past two years, allowing 14.8 points per game while producing 41 turnovers. When Polamalu's been out they're 5-7, yielding an average of 23.1 points while totaling 11 takeaways." Here are some more stats for those of you uncomfortable with the large line: Carolina is -11.9 in point differential while Pitt is +6.2. Pitt's weakness is their O-line (they are 5th worst in the league giving up 38 sacks this year, of course Carolina is worse giving up 43). So can Carolina exploit the Pitt O-line? Probably not, they are 19th in the league in sacks with 27. What about rushing then? Pitt 1710 total rush yards (8th in the NFL) and 4.2 yards/carry (16th in the NFL). Carolina's run defense? 23rd allowing 1767 yards rushing this year. So even with Polamalu out, Carolina probably cannot rush the QB or stop the running game of Pitt. On the offensive side, Jimmy Claussen is last in the league with a QB rating of 59.1. So put it all together, Pitt is coming off a loss and needs to win the last two to get the #2 seed instead of the #6 seed. Carolina won last week, is on the road in a short week with a weak QB and cannot exploit Pitt's big weakness. I will give the points reluctantly and hope the Steelers grind out a comfortable win. Pick: Steelers.

TJ: Great analysis by the Doc.  If I felt better about any aspect of Carolina’s team at all, I’d take them to cover this ridiculous spread.  But I don’t.  I mean, this is just an atrocious team, and the fact that they beat the Cardinals last week does nothing to increase my confidence in the Panthers, it simply serves to splash cold water onto whatever spark of hope I had left for the Cardinals.  I see Lebeau’s defense destroying Clausen and the meager Carolina running game, even without Polamalu creating additional disruption and making plays with his athleticism.  Even with more than a two-TD spread, I have to take Pittsburgh.

Dallas -6.5 @Arizona

DP:  No research for this one. I just think the Cards stink and the Cowboys are playing much better averaging 30+ points per game under Red Jesus. Plus Arizona has always had a lot of Cowboy fans, so I expect a lot of folks in Arizona will wake with NFL tickets under the tree from Santa. Should be a big pro-Cowboy crowd. Pick: Dallas.

TJ:  I again agree with the Doc that the ‘Boys are the better team.  If the Cards had won last week against the woeful Panthers they’d have something to play for, and might be less than a TD underdog.  As it is, their season is over, their defense can’t pressure Kitna, and their QB situation remains abysmal.  I think Garret picks up another win to solidify his position as the new head coach in Dallas next season.  Or he would be the coach next season, if it weren’t for the impending lockout!

Week 15 Analysis

Cincy over Cleveland

DP:  Ehh?

TJ:  I’m just fucking depressed about how the Browns are finishing the season.  They showed a lot of heart and beat some good teams even after they were out of the playoff hunt, and now they’ve lost to the Bills and Bengals in consecutive weeks.  Maybe these teams watched game film and figured out that the whole Cleveland offense was handing the ball off to Hillis, but these are shitty teams and there’s no getting around that.  Just sad. 

Carolina over Arizona

DP:  Carolina wins, but keeps the top pick since Cincy beat Cleveland. So does Andrew Luck want to go the Panthers or stay put in beautiful Palo Alto another year? Also don't forget, the Pats actually have the Panthers second round pick which looks like it will be #33 overall. Since the NFL draft is now 3 days, it means they will hold on to that pick overnight between rounds 1 and 2. Damn Pats!  They trade Richard Seymour, trade Randy Moss and still end up with a

12-2 record and now have 3 picks in the top 33 next year.

TJ:  This game was about as exciting as Ben Stein’s outtakes from “Ferris Bueller’s Day Off.”  At least we know Arizona is out of the NFC West race.

Buff over Miami

DP: Another game without much play-off importance, but it does raise two interesting questions. Why the hell can't Miami win at home (1-6 home, 6-1 road)? And is Ryan Fitzpatrick for real?

TJ:  Miami could legitimately go 1-7 at home, 7-1 on the road.  I’ve never seen anything like it.  I hated on the Bills all year, and here they are playing competitively after they’ve been long-eliminated from the postseason.  If you look at his stats, Fitzpatrick has been remarkably decent all year: his overall rating is 86, and his best games were weeks 5, 7, and 11, with his worst weeks being 8, 9, and 12, so he spread his good and bad games out throughout the season.  Miami was a team we really liked in the preseason, but they changed their philosophy away from the run and creative offensive packages, and I don’t see them improving next year.  Buffalo, however, could improve significantly and wind up 8-8 next year.  Neither team is doing anything this year, though.

Tenn over Houston

DP:  I won't even try to pretend to figure out these two teams. Both have some nice talent, both have been plagued by inconsistent play. One interesting note is that Bill Cowher 'released'

his list of teams that he would be willing to come back and coach. The list included Miami and the Giants which is not surprising since they have reputations for having good owners. The third team was Houston.  What does Cowher see in Houston?

TJ:  I certainly didn’t expect Tennessee to show heart at this stage in the season.  So, are we saying they haven’t quit on Fisher yet?  Will Vince Young be back next year?  Houston remains the biggest tease in the NFL: every year they look like they’re going to give us what we want, and every year they wind up folding before the playoffs.  I agree with the Doc: if I were Cowher, I’d avoid Houston like the plague.

Detroit over Tampa

DP: The first of the upsets that will shape the NFC play-off race. Tampa needed this home win to keep up for the wild-card, but fell to Detroit. Depending on how you look at the game you could either say that Tampa was injury ravaged and fell back to Earth or that Detroit is an up and coming team that is still playing hard. I will give Detroit a little love. They held Green Bay to 3 points last week and now win on the road against another NFC contender. Interestingly, second half record is a pretty good predictor of next season's success; which bodes well for Detroit. If they can ever get Stafford on the field, they may be able to turn things around.

I won't cry too much for Tampa since they are probably a year early anyway. They have a good young team and I think they have a nice future.

TJ:  I think Josh Freeman has finally started playing like the rookie he is.  What a promising start to a career, though.  This is the kind of kid you can build a franchise around.  In the past, Detroit always seemed like they had some talent, but needed better line play on both sides of the ball.  With the emergence of Suh and an occasionally productive offense, maybe they’ve finally figured it out.  2010 is over for both teams, though.

Dallas over Washington

DP:  Assuming that Dallas beats the Cardinals next week (likely) Jason Garrett will be 5-2 as interim coach (ending the season in Philly). That will be good enough to win the head coaching job for good. As for Redskins, I can't decide if benching McNabb for Grossman was the right move or not. Grossman played well, but I can't imagine he is the long term answer at QB. Until Washington stops trying to fix things with stop-gap measures and starts building long-term through the draft, I suspect they will just be spinning their wheels.

TJ:  Another meeting of teams with nothing to play for in 2010, but with a lot on the line for the future.  I think Shannahan has screwed up his QB situation more than anyone thought possible.  I wish Rick Pitino could show up in the locker room and yell at him “John Elway’s not walking through that door!”  McNabb is a good ball player, and they’ve failed to utilize him.  As a result, they stink.  The ‘Boys should have gotten rid of Grandpa Wade after last season.  They’d be competing for a Wild Card right now at worst.

Atlanta over 'Skanks

DP:  This win should just about wrap up the #1 seed in the NFC for the Falcons. At 12-2, they need to either beat the Saints or Panthers (both at home) to get to 13 wins. Since they are undefeated at home, I think it looks good. That makes the Falcons a clear favorite (along with Eagles) to represent the NFC in the Superbowl. The 'Skanks now need to travel across the country and beat a desperate Tampa team. Welcome to the NFL Pete Carroll!

TJ:  Atlanta is the clear NFC favorite, and I’ll even say they should kill Philly at home in the playoffs.  As for the ‘Skanks, I wouldn’t call Tampa desperate, I’d call them done.  Even so, I can’t see the ‘Skanks winning that game.  7-9 NFC West Champs is definitely still on the board, Doc!

Raiders over Broncos

DP:  Welcome to the NFL Tim Tebow! Actually Tebow was not terrible, 8-16 for 138 yards and 1 TD plus 78 yards rushing and 1 TD. The Broncos are in a tough spot. Do you hire the best coach available or hire someone that is willing to develop Tebow? The Raiders are now 7-7 and will probably have to settle for the spoiler role now: Indy and @Chiefs. Nice season for the Raiders, but in no way do I believe they are for real. No QB. Weak coach. Terrible drafting.

No depth. No first round pick this year. Sad really.

TJ:  Doc, I’ll agree with most of what you said about the Raiders, but they’re in the AFC West, and since the Chiefs obviously can’t play consistently and the Broncos suck, I think the Raiders can still win some games next year.  It will come down to whether the Chargers get it together or blow up.  I, too, was impressed with Tebow overall.  With his work ethic and a full offseason to prepare as a starter, I’ll bet he plays very well next season.  Assuming he gets the opportunity.

Bears over Vikings

DP:  For some reason it seems I have been wrong about the Bears and Texans more than any two teams in the NFL. When I think they stink, they win. But when I start believing in them again they crap the bed. So of course the Bears go into Minny on a freezing night and clobber the Vikes to win the NFC North. What kind of odds do you think you would have gotten in August that the Bears would be the first team to wrap up their division? 20-1?  30-1? The Bears have the tie breaker over Philly for the #2 seed but still have the Jets and @Packers.

TJ:  The Bears did everything right and I give them a lot of credit, but I’ll still put my money on the Pack to beat them in the season finale (assuming the Packers haven’t been eliminated from the playoffs by then).  I don’t think the Bears o-line is very good, and their defense is spectacular against one-dimensional offenses, but they can be schemed badly (as the Pats did) while the Packers D cannot (and the Pats had trouble with them).  Gotta give Favre credit for playing in this game, but I can’t say I’m sad to see him go out on a low note.

Kansas City over St. Louis

DP:  Missouri hasn't been this excited since the Royals-Cards World Series back in the 80s. Matt Cassel comes on but it’s the rushing attack (210 yards on 42 carrries) that lifts the Chiefs to a key road win. KC is still clinging to a one game lead on the Chargers with two home games (Tenn and Oakland) left on the schedule. As for the Rams, my dream of a 7-9 NFC West Division winner is alive! All we need is for the 49ers to beat the Rams next week and the Bucs to beat the Seaskanks.

TJ:  The Doc thinks the Chiefs are good again this week?  He hasn’t been up and down on anyone this much since he was a Boy Scout.  In a way, I hope the Chiefs blow it, because at least the Chargers could be dangerous in the playoffs.  I don’t see the Chiefs beating anyone in a big game.  Like the Doc, I love what’s happening in the NFC West.  I’ll be rooting hard for the 9ers and Bucs next week!

Chargers over 49ers

DP:  We will see whether or not the Chiefs fold and let the Chargers win the divsion, but I find the 49ers more interesting. At 5-9 are they the favorite to win the NFC West? All they need to do is win @Rams and beat the Cards then hope the 'Skanks lose one of their last two games (@Bucs and Rams). At this point I would basically give those 3 teams equal odds.

TJ:  That statement is amazing: the fact that you can legitimately wonder whether a 5-9 team is the favorite to win their division.  The NFL is nuts.  Vincent Jackson looked scary in this game, and as I said above, the Chargers could be dangerous in the playoffs.  Doc, I know you’d be shitting you drawers if the Colts drew them in the first round.

 Indy over Jax

DP:  where does Hagler's on-side kick return for a TD rank in the all-time Great Moments in Gambling History rank? Probably just an honorable mention, but still it was a gut punch. Anyway, Indy may not be dominant anymore, but no one else in the AFC South seems consistent enough to step up and take the title from them. As a Colts fan, I will say this. The game @Oakland is much scarier to me than the Jags were this week. Going to the West Coast right after Christmas and racing the Raider's running game is a recipe for disaster. This one will be high on my upset scale.

TJ:  Man, Jacksonville showed their true colors, didn’t they?  I think the most significant thing about this game may be the loss of Austin Collie.  The Colts receiving corps was already in rough shape.  This is Collie’s 42^nd concussion of the season, so he might be done for a while, and Peyton can’t afford to be without him.  I’m with the Doc: the Raiders are likely to knock the Colts out this week.

Jets over Steelers

DP:  This game was a lot of fun, especially at the end with the Steelers trying to dive 93 yards to win the game.  The Jets were clearly more desperate for the win and it showed. The upset win keeps both the AFC East and AFC North races in doubt with 2 weeks to go. I still expect the Pats to get the #1 seed, but now the Steelers and Ravens are fighting for the #2 seed and a Bye. The loser will get the wild-card and three straight road games to make the Superbowl.

TJ:  An important and well-fought game.  I don’t know whether the Jets are actually a little better than I thought or the Steelers are a little worse.  One thing’s for sure: both these teams will have to do some serious scheming if they want to get past the Pats in the playoffs, because their traditional methods (Ben and Sanchize sitting in the pocket and the defenses blitzing 50% of the time) aren’t going to get it done.

Pats over Packers

DP:  I have to give Green Bay a lot of credit, I thought that they would get blown out going on the road with their back-up QB, but they gave the Pats everything they could handle. This now sets up an interesting game next week of Packers (8-6) vs. Giants (9-5). The loser probably has no shot at the Wild-card while the winner will battle Tampa Bay and New Orleans for the two wild card spots.

TJ: The Pack showed how you stay competitive with the Pats.  You have to have a fast defense and play ever-changing short and intermediate zones to stop the Pats’ quick-hitting slants and drag routes, and you have to jam those tight ends.  It also helps if you can pressure Brady with just four rushers, but that goes without saying.  On the other side, they showed that the Pats defense has some minor holes, and if you don’t fall too far behind and can keep the D on the field, you can score on them.  The question is, is there another team in the league that can do these things?

Eagles over the Giants

DP:  The Game of the Year ended with the Play of the Year. Michael Vick brought his team back from 21 to win in the final seconds as DeSean Jackson ran back a punt for a TD with no time left. The only thing standing between Vick and the league MVP is Tom Brady and a pile of dead dogs. Philly ends the season with two home games and will try to wrestle the #2 seed from the Bears. The NFC still has a lot of intrigue left. There is a big difference for the Bears and Eagles between #2 (Bye and home field in the second round) vs. #3 (and a first round match up with the either the Giants/Packers/Bucs). Also there is a huge difference between WC #1 (and a first round match with the Rams/49ers/'Skanks 'winner') and WC #2 where you get the Bears or Eagles. As for the Giants, this is the type of loss that can absolutely end your season. They had the NFC East and possible #2 seed firmly in hand and then absolutely fell apart. The poor punter will get most of the blame, but everyone (Offense, Defense, and Special Teams) all had to simultaneously choke to let the Eagles come back. If it were anyone else besides the Giants and Eli Manning, I would say that their season is over, but they have proven in the past to handle adversity well. I give the Packers a slight advantage next week, but would not be surprised to see the Giants go into Lambeau and pull out a win.

TJ:  Mike Lombardi said it on the BS Report this week: yes, the Giants’ punter made a stupid play, but if their offense had gotten just a single first down on the last drive, they could have wrapped that game up.  Instead, they went three and out and made that fateful punt.  Through the first three quarters, the Giants dominated the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball, but they looked gassed in the fourth, and that’s unacceptable for professional athletes.  You know who never looks tired?  Vick.  I think the Pack will kill the Giants this week at Lambeau and knock them out of the picture.  And I’m really hoping for a Philly @Atlanta NFC Championship.