Well Juice we are at the 3/4 pole and turning into the home stretch of the NFL season. With 4 games to go, I will try to handicap the various races.
Eagles over Houston-
DP: The Eagles jumped out to a quick lead then let Houston back in the game before pulling away in the 4th with 2 TDs. The Eagles continue to display a frustrating inconsistency with both flashes of brilliance and then sloppy uninspired play. This is likely a result of their focus on a big-play quick-strike offense which is capable of building a lead but not capable of holding onto it. Last year the Dallas Cowboys figured out how to contain the Eagles big plays and make them drive down the field. Consequently, Philly's offense stalled and the Cowboys won both games. I thought Philly had an advantage over the Giants because Philly plays Dallas twice, but the ‘Boys have suddenly come to life under Red Jesus which makes these two games (starting with Philly in Dallas next week) all the more fascinating. Philly's final four games: @Cowboys, @Giants, Vikings, Cowboys. Chance at the playoffs: 5-8. Tied with Giants in the NFC East and tied with Packers for the wild-card, I like their chances of either beating the Giants in two weeks or holding on for a wild card.
TJ: The Eagles obviously have the most explosive offense in the league. Their speed at all the skill positions is devastating if they get into the open field. The key to stopping them (and this is true of most good offenses now) is pressuring the passer with only four rushers. This is something a healthy Giants front four can do, and they play the run almost as well as the pass (2nd against pass, 7th against run), so they can’t easily be schemed. Philly won their last game against the Giants by 10 at home, but I like the Giants to step up in their new stadium, so I see that game as a pick’em. If the Eagles split with the Cowboys and beat the Vikes, they’d finish 10-6 or 11-5, so the Giants game is, indeed, a huge one. I like the Doc’s call: 5-8 sounds good.
Giants over the Redskins-
DP: Once again the Redskins look like a rudder-less ship, floundering at the end of the season with no clear direction. Is Mike Shanahan the coach of the future? What to do with Donovan McNabb? What about Albert Haynesworth who was scratched after showing up late on Friday? Meanwhile the Giants are sticking with their game plan winning ugly with defense and Eli Manning scraping up enough offense. Giant's final 4: @Vikings, Philly, @Packers, @Redskins. Chances 2-1. I'm not crazy about how the Giants are playing and they have to go to the Vikings (who are playing better under Frazier) and @Packers. They have already lost once to the Eagles, the game in two weeks is a must win. Tough order for the Giants, but they have survived worse.
TJ: Again, the Doc and I are on the same page. The G-men beat the piss out of Washington this week, and they should do the same in week 17, and I like them to beat the Vikes, especially if Favre is done and they can have a field day rushing Tavaris Jackson. They Can’t win in Green Bay, so the game against Philly will be the decider for the division. Getting Steve Smith healthy (and even Hakim Nicks if possible) would really help Eli put up the points to keep up with Philly. I’m gonna copy off the Doc’s page again, and say 2-1.
Minny over Buffalo-
DP: So Favre goes out on the first play, Tavaris Jackson comes in and the Vikings blow out the Bills except Jackson doesn't play that well. Is there anything to take from this game? Probably best not to overthink things too much.
TJ: I know this sounds stupid, but my personal opinion on Favre’s career will hinge a lot on the next couple of weeks. If he calls it quits now that the season is over, I’ll lose what little respect I have left for this dude. If he fights through the injuries and tries his best to help the Vikes play spoilers to a couple potential playoff teams, I’ll know that he’s truly the rugged, masculine icon his Wrangler jeans commercials have led me to believe he is. Real. Comfortable. Jeans.
Browns over Dolphins-
DP:Another game without playoff implications that I really don't care about. The Browns win after Henne throws 3 INTs. I'll leave the cutting insights to The Juice.
TJ: I’m proud of my Brownies for the way they’ve played for the last six weeks: 4-2 with an OT loss to the Jets and a 4-point loss in Jacksonville. They should win the next two (@Bills and @Cincy), but they finish with the Ravens and Steelers at home. My one real hope is that they can beat Baltimore to knock them out of the playoffs in week 16. It would make the season. At any rate, they’ve found their run game and their defense is much improved. I hope they hold on to Mangini and make some smart moves in the offseason (to get ready for the lockout, you know?).
Chiefs over Broncos-
DP: It wasn't pretty but the Chiefs win (coupled with the Chargers shocking loss to the Raiders) puts KC up 2 with 4 to go. The Broncos look like another team trying to get their coach fired (TUESDAY UPDATE: they succeeded). I guess its time to play Tebow right? They aren't making the play-offs so its time to get some valuable experience. I used to think that Kyle Orten, The Best Mediocre QB in the NFL, was the next QB of the Raiders. I now believe he is the next QB of the Cardinals. As for the Chiefs, they don't always win pretty, but they are 8-4 and Matt Cassel is steady if unspectacular. Final 4 games: @Chargers, @Rams, Titans, Raiders. Odds: even money. The Chiefs may have a two game lead, but the San Diego is making a late charge on the outside (pun intended). KC can effectively end the race next week with a win (and season sweep) @ San Diego. However, they are 6-0 at home and 2-4 away. I think 8-6 is likely heading into those last 2 games. We'll see if they can hold off the Chargers and Raiders.
TJ: I guess I’m a reactionary, but after this week’s results, I put the Chiefs at 3-2, and even that is being a bit pessimistic. The Chargers blew their chance, and even if they beat the Chiefs next week, the Chiefs should easily handle the Rams, Raiders, and Titans to clinch anyway. The Broncos are a bigger dysfunctional mess than the Vikings and Cowboys, and that’s saying something. A couple of weeks ago, I said McDaniels was ”a douche-bag, and I think he belongs more as an assistant to Lane Kiffin at USC than as a head-coach in the NFL.” We’ll see where he actually lands, but I wouldn’t bet against my prediction right now!
Raiders over Chargers-
DP: It is almost impossible to understand the Raiders. They are 4-0 vs. the AFC West and 2-6 against everyone else. Unfortunately they only have 2 games left against the West. The Raiders did this one with their running game, amassing 200+ yards vs. the Chargers. Meanwhile, after 4 straight wins, the Chargers shocking loss all of a sudden opens up the AFC West race. Raiders final 4: @Jax, Denver, Indy, @KC. Chargers final 4: KC, San Fran, @Bengals, @Broncos. Odds: Raiders 4-1, Chargers 6-5. The Chargers still have the easiest schedule. If they can knock-off the Chiefs next week, they should find little resistance against the 49ers, Bengals, and Broncos. That would be 10 wins, but the Chiefs look like they can win at least 2 and maybe 3 more so it could come down to tie breakers. As for the Raiders, they probably need to win out and I can definitely see them losing to either the Jags or Colts.
TJ: I like your odds on the Raiders: 4-1 sounds about right with their schedule, and with the help they need. I disagree on the Chargers, though. I think the Chiefs have their number, and I also think the Chiefs will win their last three. With their defense, I could also see them giving up a ton of points to one of the shitty teams they play (like the Bengals) and blowing it that way. I have to put them at 2-1.
Saints over Bengals-
DP: The Saints are living dangerously, they should have lost to the Cowboys on Thanksgiving and could have lost to the Bengals yesterday. Still, they are 9-3 and you can think of a lot worse things to say about a team than they make plays to win close games. Final 4 games: Rams, @Ravens, @Falcons, Tampa Bay. Odds: 1-3. They have the wild-card lead and are one back of the Falcons, but they aren't playing well and have 4 teams with play-off hopes left. Still it’s hard not to see 2 more wins which gets them to 11-5.
TJ: As the Doc said, 11-5 should happen, but they have to beat the Rams. If not, it’s very easy to see them losing 2 of their last 3 to finish 10-6 and out of the show. @ Ravens and @ Falcons are brutal, so it may come down to a home game against Tampa in Week 17. By that point, though, Tampa should be 10-5 (they’re schedule is ultra-weak) and playing for their lives. Could be a great game. I put New Orleans at 2-3 odds to make it.
Falcons over Bucs-
DP: One month ago the Falcons had no signature wins, now they have beaten the Ravens, Rams, Packers, and Bucs twice. At 10-2, they have a narrow edge over the Saints and the Bears (?!?!) for the best record in the NFC. The Bucs are a nice story, but slip to 7-5, one back of the Packers/Giants/Eagles for the last wild-card spot. Bucs final 4 games: @Redskins, Lions, Seaskanks, @Saints. Falcons final 4: @Panthers, @Seaskanks, Saints, Panthers. Odds: Bucs: 3-1, Falcons off the board. The Bucs have a nice finishing stretch with 3 struggling teams, but then finish at the Saints. They have a shot at 10 wins, but need both the Packers and the loser of the Giants/Eagles battle to fade down the stretch. Nice run, but not enough left in the tank. Meanwhile, the Falcons have two games left with the awful Panthers plus the Seaskanks. It’s nearly impossible to imagine a scenario where they lose 4 straight and miss the playoffs.
TJ: The Falcons are, indeed, off the board and have all but clinched a spot in the show. As I mentioned above, I love the Bucs remaining schedule, and see them strutting into New Orleans at 10-5 for a huge Week 17 showdown. I put them at 12-5 (2-1 if they wear the creamsicles!).
Bears over Lions-
DP: The Bears are either lucky or opportunistic depending on if you are a glass half-empty or glass half-full kind of person. We will know for sure if they are for real with this final stretch: Pats, @Vikings, Jets, @Packers. Odds: Even money. No team has such a wide margin as the Bears. There potential realistically ranges from 11-5 and second seed in the NFC to 9-7 and out of the play-offs.
TJ: I agree that 2-2 over those last four games is about the best the Bears can hope for. They should beat the Vikings, but 10-6 doesn’t guarantee the playoffs at all. After last night’s debacle, I think the Jets at home is a slightly more winnable game for the Bears than either the Pats or in Green Bay. Real strong chance they wind up at 10-6 and on the outside, though. I think they’ll beat the Vikes and Jets, so I’m going to give them 3-2.
Packers over 49ers-
DP: Even down 6-0 to the 49ers and then up only 14-13 at half-time, I still had no worries that the Pack would cover. Is that faith in the Packers or no belief in the 49ers? The Packers have survived a rash of injuries and now are coming up on the Bears. Final 4: @Lions, @Pats, Giants, Bears. Odds: Even money. Given the Bears schedule, it looks like the final game of the season (Bears @Packers) may be a showdown for the NFC North. The Pack also is in good shape to pass the Eagles/Giants loser to hold on to the final wild-card. I guess the 49ers are still alive in the NFC West. Final 4: Seattle, @Chargers, @Rams, Cards. Odds: 6-1. Well the 49ers are 4-8, and 7-9 MAY be enough to win the West. Beating San Diego may be tough, but are you telling me they can't beat the 'Skanks, Rams, and Cards? Not likely, but POSSIBLE.
TJ: Green Bay will be 9-4 after they beat the Lions next week. I don’t think they can win in Foxboro, but it’s not out of the question. The Giants are beatable at home, so I’m guessing they’ll be 10-5 going into that Bears game, with the Bears sitting at 11-4. I think the Pack win it at home, and both teams make the playoffs. Overall odds: 3-2. Do we care who wins the NFC West? I guess the 49ers have a shot, but it’s pretty sad. I think the Rams and Seattle both have two tough games left on their schedule, but they play each other in the last week, which means at least one of them has to hit 7 wins, and likely 8. That means San Fran has to win out to have a shot, and I just can’t imagine that. I make them 10-1 to get in.
Rams over Cards-
DP: Derek Anderson had a nice bounce back after that Monday night debacle. No wait, it’s Derek Anderson so he went 7-20, for 93 yards. He remains me a lot of Ryan Leaf with a slightly better personality. Seriously, how is he still in the league. Wouldn't you go with Max Hall at this point? I mean seriously, what's the point of playing Anderson? As for the Rams, Bradford is actually playing well (60% comlpetions, 17 TDs, and 2653 yards) and will probably win offensive ROY. The Rams are 6-6 and tied for first with the Seaskanks. Final 4 games: @Saints, Chiefs, 49ers, Seaskanks. Odds: 6-5. My dream of a 7-9 division winner is clinging to life. I can see the Rams losing to the Saints and Chiefs, but I need the 49ers to make a late surge to beat both the Rams and Seaskanks, possible, but not likely. The more likely scenario is the 7-8 Rams going to Seattle to face the 7-8 Seaskanks.
TJ: Your scenario is correct, and one of them will win the division at 8-8. It’s a home game for Seattle, so I have to give them the edge, even though they lost to the Rams 20-3 in Week 4. That makes my odds for the Rams fall to 3-2.
Seattle over Carolina-
DP: It’s hard to say who is playing worse: the Cardinals or Panthers. Either way, its must-not-see-TV. I know nothing about this game except for the fact that a Touchdown After INT (or TAINT) turned the game around. Final 4 games for the ‘Skanks: @49ers, Falcons, @Bucs, Rams. Odds: 6-5. Same analysis as above. 7-8 Rams vs. 7-8 Seaskanks is likely, but I wouldn't rule out a final weekend with 49ers, Rams, and 'Skanks all sitting at 6-9.
TJ: Your triple-6-9 weekend sounds like a great idea! (How many times do you get to say that sentence in your life? Assuming your name isn’t Ron Jeremy). Unfortunately, 7-8 for the Rams and ‘Skanks is the likely scenario, and as I said above, I like the ‘Skanks to win that final home game and make the show at 8-8. I make them the 2-3 favorite.
Jax over Titans-
DP: The Titans collapse has been one of the biggest surprises of the year. I typically think of them as a sound, well-coached team with a solid defense and enough offense to keep games interesting. In week 7, they thumped the Eagles and were 5-2. Now they have lost 5 straight and are the verge of becoming irrelevant. I am not sure what to attribute the decline to: QB problems, power struggle between the coach and ownership or Randy Moss (the old stand by). At any rate, the Titans play the Colts this Thursday in a game that will likely end any hopes for the play-offs for one of these teams. Meanwhile, I have always considered the Jags the opposite of the Titans: poorly coached, no fan support, no identity. Somehow they have won 4 of 5 and are in first place in the AFC South. WTF?!?! Final 4 Jaguar games: Raiders, @Colts, Redskins, @Texans; final 4 Titans games: Colts, Texans, @Chiefs, @Colts. Odds: Titans 10-1, Jags- 3-5. The Titans probably need to win all 4 and its hard to imagine them sweeping the Colts and winning at the Chiefs. The Jags have a one game lead on the struggling Colts and have three games left with the unpredictable teams (Raiders, Redskins, and Texans). They can probably make the play-offs in one of two ways: Win in Indy or lose to Indy and win the other three.
TJ: The Titans are in disarray. For them to win out and make the playoffs without Young at QB would be a second Music City Miracle. I can’t go higher than 15-1. The Jags are a big surprise. I don’t like them to win a playoff game by any stretch, but they’ll make the playoffs if they win at Indy. If not, though, they could easily finish 9-7 and out. I make them 2-1, because I still like the Colts.
Cowboys over Colts-
DP:Two of the best predictors of winning are scoring a defensive TD and rushing yards. Somehow near the end of the 4th quarter, the Cowboys had TWO TAINTs, and 200+ yards rushing and were still not able to put away the Colts until P. Manning threw his 4th pick in OT. Oh well, Jerry Jones will look at the 3-1 record of Red Jesus (which could be 4-0 if Roy Williams did not fumble against the Saints) and think he has found his puppet, err savior. As for the Colts, there is really no sense to pile on. Why does Manning keep throwing picks? Well like I told the Juice before, Manning is a lot like Tiger Woods. When he gets down, he starts 'pressing' and goes for high risk/high reward plays to try and catch up. Sometimes it works, but a lot of the time it blows up. Still I have to admire how Manning puts winning ahead of stats. Anyway, final 4 games: @Titans, Jags, @Raiders, Titans. Odds: 2-1. The Colts probably need to win out (or at the very least, beat the Jags and win 3 out of 4). Possible, but not likely.
TJ: Like I said, I still like the Colts, and think Peyton gets it together against the unstable Titans this weekend. I think they beat the Jags at home the next week to decide the division, as well. The Doc has been killing his Colts lately, but they’re still my favorite in the division: 3-2.
Steelers over Ravens-
DP: This was the first of the two titanic match-ups this weekend and it was a great game. I’ve heard people argue that you should never pass on second down in that situation, but that seems crazy to me. Short passes are just as safe as runs in the right system. If they had made the first down and run out the clock, everyone would be praising the Ravens for being ‘aggressive’. Whatever. The Steelers now have a one game lead, the season series is split, so the next tie-breaker is division record (Pitt is 3-1, Balt 2-2). After that the tie-breakers get complicated. Final 4 games (Pitt): Bengals, Jets, Panthers, @Browns. Final 4 games (Balt): @Texans, Saints, @Browns, Bengals. Odds: Steelers OTB, Ravens 1-7. Pitt has a nice schedule with three straight home games including the Bengals and Panthers sandwiching the lone hard game with the Jets. Then they end the season with the Browns who are not great but always play the Steelers tough. It’s nearly impossible for me to imagine a scenario where they don’t win at least 2 games and make the play-offs. The Ravens also have a nice schedule; which also features games at home with Bengals and at the Browns. The Ravens do have the Saints to deal with, but I think they should easily manage at least 2 wins and secure one of the wild-cards.
TJ: This was a great game. It’s a cliché, but the low score was due to two great defenses, not two poor offenses. I agree with the Doc that both of these teams should be in. I also take the Steelers off the board, but it’s a slim possibility the Ravens could lose in Houston this week, then have trouble with the Saints and Browns (who, as I mentioned above, would love to play spoilers). I wanted to lower their odds a bit as a result, but I can’t find a third AFC team I think has a shot at 10 wins without winning their division. I think the Ravens and Jets have locked up the Wild Card spots at worst. 1-15 (really, off the board).
Pats over Jets-
DP: I think we called this one Juice. The Jets are a little bit of a mirage managing to hide their flaws behind some close wins. The Pats exposed them last night with a sound 45-3 drubbing. You need look no farther than the QB stats. Brady: 21/28, 326, 4/0, rating of 148.9. Sanchez: 17/33, 164, 0/3, rating 27.8. The Pats now have the inside track to the #1 seed in the AFC. It will be interesting to see how the Jets respond. Do they pull their shit together and rebound or do they kind of fall apart a bit? With all of the head cases on the Jets, I can see them kind of falling apart. Final 4 games (Pats): @Chicago, Green Bay, @Bills, Miami. Final 4 games (Jets): Miami, @Steelers, @Bears, Bills. Odds: New England OTB, Jets 1-8. Both teams share 3 out of 4 opponents, but the Jets have to go Pitt while the Pats get Green Bay at home.
TJ: The Pats are somehow awesome again. We talked a bit about how their shortened passing game without Moss is actually a strength, especially against a team like the Jets that relies on one-on-one corner play and lots of blitzing. They handled Pittsburgh and Baltimore already this year, but it will be interesting to see whether they can do the same in a playoff atmosphere. The Jets are indeed exposed as frauds, and I could see them losing the next three. But they’ll beat Buffalo at home to finish the season and secure a Wild Card spot, almost certainly. I make their odds a little lower than Baltimore, but still 1-8.
AFC-
DP: Probably the only scenario in which both Baltimore and the NY Jets are not in the play-offs as the two AFC wild-cards would require the teams to end win 10 wins (2-2 for the Ravens and 1-3 for the Jets) and then have the Colts, Jags, Chiefs, and Chargers all finish with 10+ wins. That is a pretty unlikely scenario. So the AFC is fairly clear at this point. Most likely Baltimore and the NY Jets will travel to Jax and KC or San Diego. Assuming that the Jets and Ravens handle this weak competition, we will then get some kind of re-match in the second round (NE vs. Jets or Ravens and Pitt vs. Jets or Ravens).
TJ: Looks like the divisions will go to Pitt and NE for sure, and I like the Colts and Chiefs, though the Jags and Chargers aren’t out. Either way, I see NE playing Pitt or Baltimore in the AFC Championship, and any of those three teams could make the Big Game.
NFC-
DP: This one is still a little murky since no one seems to have faith in the Bears. Atlanta at #1 (or New Orleans as an outsider if they can run the table) is most likely. NFC #2 is a little tougher to figure. The Giants, Eagles, Bears, and Packers will fight for #2 and #3 (I would give the edge to the Packers). The Rams/Skanks ‘winner’ will be the #4 and then get destroyed by either Atlanta or more likely New Orleans. That leaves someone from the Giants, Eagles, Bears, and Packers (or possible the Bucs) to claim the last wild-card.
TJ: This is a clusterfuck. Atlanta is the class of the conference if they can secure home-field, and they should do so. Philly and Green Bay are the only teams I see having a shot at winning a game in the Georgia dome, and if pressed, I say Green Bay is most likely. My Superbowl prediction: Patriots 35-31 over Falcons in a barn-burner.
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