5 Questions for Week 13

1. We’ve talked a lot this season about how point differential appears to be the best statistic for determining how good (or at least how successful) a team is. If you look at the divisions right now, this holds true in almost every case: four teams per division, the top two have positive point differential, the bottom two have negative point differential. There are two exceptions: A) the NFC West, in which every team has a negative differential, but the top team (St Louis) is -18 while the bottom team (Arizona) is -125, so the pattern holds; and B) the AFC South. In this division, the standings are Jacksonville (-54 differential) on top, then Indy (+30), Houston (-23), and Tennessee (+39). Why? Well all teams are within a game of each other (6-5 or 5-6). My question: Do the current point differentials predict the final results of the AFC South? Will it shake out as Tennessee, then Indy, then Houston, then Jax?

DP: Juice I admire your dedication to pouring through stats to try and find a pearl of wisdom. Someday you will be able to put all of those together to make a pearl necklace of wisdom. The point differential stats are telling. I think the two negative teams (Jax and Houston) are flawed teams that when exposed by the right teams are capable of getting blown out which is why their differential is so bad. Jax and Houston have been both aided by scheduling and a little luck. Indy and Tenn are the two best teams in the AFC by talent and coaching, but both have been killed by injuries this year. Houston has the toughest schedule and I still think they are done. I would probably go with Indy who still has Jax and Tenn at home which should both be wins. That will get them to 9 or 10 wins and hopefully win the division, but I would not be at all surprised if Jax beats the Colts in Indy and swept the season series to get the tiebreaker and the division.

2. This week, the two marquee matchups are on Sunday and Monday Night Football: Steelers @Ravens and Jets @Pats, respectively. Of the four teams, who needs the win the most, and why?

DP: Well the Ravens and Jets won the first match-up in each series so the pressure is on Pitt and New England. If either loses here they are essentially 2 games back because of losing the tie-breaker. So between New England and Pitt who has more at stake? I would say New England. Pitt has the type of team that travels well on the road in the playoffs and I think overall expectations were slightly lower for them coming into the season. New England still has @Bears and Packers left on the schedule so catching the Jets will be tough if they lose here.

3. Is the NFL purposely downplaying the Broncos’ taping the 49ers’ practice in London? Their investigation apparently states that the director of video operations who made the tapes (and who was hired and subsequently fired by Josh McDaniels) acted alone and is the only one responsible! Is this plausible at all? Is “cheating” like this systemic? Is it really even cheating?

DP: I had very little interest in this story until I heard something very interesting. Apparently this guy who made the tape also worked for the Pats video staff during Spygate I, so as a two-time offender he faces a LIFETIME BAN from the NFL. I will two points about this. First, I really really doubt your job prospects are very good once you have been banned from the NFL. I am guessing he probably makes around 100K a year. Where would you go after this? College? Probably does not pay nearly as well if someone wants to hire you. I am guessing he ends up video taping weddings or some crap like that. Why is this relevant? Because this set off the good Doc’s BS detector (and as you know, my BS detector is finely tuned from years of working in the Psychiatric Emergency Room). No one would ever, ever risk that kind of job unless you were directly told to do so by your employer. I don’t see any way Josh McDaniel didn’t know about and sanction this. Second, if McDaniel did know then he is also guilty as a two-time offender and should also face a permanent ban from the NFL. I can’t remember any time that a coach of a major Pro team was caught cheating twice and banned permanently (except maybe Woody Hayes punching that kid). So I would agree that the NFL is trying to sweep this one under the rug to avoid any further embarrassment.

4. According to ESPN.com, “Two different groups interested in bringing an NFL team to Los Angeles have approached the Minnesota Vikings about possible relocation.” Is this the right franchise to relocate? If not, who? Is L.A. the right destination? If not, where? How crushing would this be for Minny fans (who also lost the NBA’s Lakers to LA in 1960, and now have the awful Timberwolves as a replacement!)?

DP: I have heard the Minny rumors before, but I always wrote it off to the owner trying to get leverage for a new stadium. I think the current LA rumors probably have a ring of truth to them now with Magic Johnson involved and they are trying to find an unhappy owner who is willing to move. Minnesota has some loyal fans and I would hate to see them lose their team. I have said this before, but the team makes the absolute most sense is Jacksonville. They can’t sell out their stadium, they have no relevant history, and their fan base prefers college football. They bring nothing to the table. I still believe moving Jax to LA (with the Rams moving into the AFC South) makes the most sense.

5. Carolina has the worst record (1-10) and worst point differential (-136) in the league. They appear to have the top pick locked up. Who will they take, and who should they take? Kiper’s big board looks like this:

Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford
Da’Quan Bowers, DE, Clemson
AJ Green, WR, Georgia
Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU
Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska

DP: Well Detroit, Buffalo, and Cincy all have 2 wins and the Panthers still play the dreadful Cardinals, so I wouldn’t say it’s a lock. But for the sake of argument, I think you go QB or lineman with the top pick unless someone really special is out there. Everyone seems to think Luck is the real deal, but he is a red shirt sophomore so there is no guarantee he will even come out. I have previously expressed my distaste for drafting WR in the top 10 and the only CB in the league worth #1 pick money is Darrell Revis, so unless you are pretty sure you are getting another Revis, I would take the DE and hope for the best. Besides he is from Clemson, that should help draw in some local fans, right?