Week 14 picks

At Jacksonville -4 Oakland

DP: My gut hunch is that Oakland is not very consistent, has to travel across the country, and can’t follow-up last week’s victory over San Diego with another good game. Pick: Jax.

TJ: Actually an important game. Though Oakland will have a tough time staying in the AFC West race, considering their schedule, they can certainly play spoilers in both their division (KC in Week 17) and in the AFC South by beating the Jags this week. Indy squeaked by the Titans on Thursday, much to the Doc’s surprise and delight, so the Jags need a win here to stay a game ahead. If they lose this game, the Colts can put them away next week in Indy. Oakland’s play has been wildly inconsistent, with a big win in San Diego last week, but a bad loss to Miami at home the week before. I like them to play hard this week, but not hard enough. Jags win by a TD to set up a huge game in Indy next week!

At Pittsburgh -8.5 Cincinnati

DP: I hate these point spreads above 7 in divisional games. Pitt has covered 8.5 only three times this year and only once in the last 7 weeks. Cincy has lost 9 in a row but only 2 of those losses have been by more than 8.5. This is a classic ‘let-down’ week for the Steelers having beaten the Ravens last week and looking ahead to the Jets next week. Pick: Bungles to keep it low scoring and close.

TJ: Cincy sucks. They’ve lost nine games in a row, and even though they haven’t usually gotten blown out (seven of them have been by 8 points or less), they are very weak on both sides of the ball. The Steelers are probably worn out from the dogfight against Baltimore last week, and they could be due for a letdown, but a home game against Cincy seems impossible to fuck up. They did need OT to beat the Bills two weks ago, but I’m guessing the Steelers get their run game going and generate a few turnovers to win by 14 or more.

New England -3 At Chicago

DP: We’ve been waiting for the other shoe to drop in Chicago for a while now, maybe this is the week. New England is battle tested and Tom Brady certainly won’t be rattled by the Bears pass rush. This looks like a sucker bet with all of the money going to New England’s side. New England is coming off a short week and has to travel so they will not have a lot of time to scheme. Pick: Bears

TJ: Man, is everyone on Tom Brady’s jock, or what?!? Yes, he’s playing really well, but let’s not overestimate the slaughter against the Jets. The Jets were a paper tiger. In the past few months, they got blanked by Green Bay, edged Houston by only 3 points at home, and needed OT to beat Detroit and Cleveland. They were due for a hammering, and the Pats were peaking just in time, and were pissed about all of Fat Rex’s jabbering. Chicago’s defense may be better than the Jets’ D (giving up only 16.0 points per game compared to NYJ’s 19.3), and they’ve won five in a row, with a quality win over Philly and a shutout on the road in Miami. I think this is a tougher assignment for the Pats than last week, but they’re up for it. The key is the Pat’s defense, which should be able to keep pressure on Cutler, but really needs to shut down Matt Forte (averaging 6.7 yards per carry the last two weeks). I say they succeed, and win by a TD. Pick: Pats.

At Buffalo -1 Cleveland

DP: A match-up of two losing teams that have actually been playing well lately. Cleveland has won 4 out 6 losing close games the Jets and Jags. The Bills beat Detroit and Cincy and took Pitt to overtime before getting beat @Minny last week. I think the Brownies are playing a little better and I like their run game in what could be bad weather. Pick: Browns.

TJ: What a shitty game. As I mentioned above, I was really impressed when the Bills took the Steelers to OT in Pittsburgh, but a subsequent loss to the Vikings suggests they’re back to their old ways. I love my Brownies, and I think they’ve been genuinely scrappy against a murderous schedule. Depending on how you feel about the Jags, you could legitimately say that the Browns haven’t lost to a bad team all year. Getting a point against the Bills sounds good to me. I’ll take the Browns.

NY Giants -3 At Minnesota

DP: This one is hard to guess since the status of Brett Favre is up in the air. I could definitely see the Giants dropping a turd here, but for now I like their defensive line and their motivation (they are still trying to win the NFC East and they want revenge for last year’s blow-out loss). Pick: Giants.

TJ: The mini-run is over, the Vikings will come back to earth and get embarrassed at home by a Giants team desperate to keep up with the Eagles. I’m predicting a huge day for the Giants’ defense, and a bruising day for whichever disaster of a QB the Vikings start. This could be Favre’s last game, and I couldn’t be happier. Giants cover.

Green Bay -6.5 At Detroit

DP: Green Bay’s offense is finally healthy and starting to roll. Detroit is playing better, but they still don’t have the guns to keep up with the Pack, especially when they are down to their 3rd string QB. Pick: Green Bay

TJ: Man, do I like the Packers in this game. Their defense should do some naughty things to poor Detroit’s sputtering offense. Big Suh may get to Rodgers once or twice, but I still expect the Pack to put up the 27 points it will take to beat Detroit by a TD. Pack cover.

Atlanta -7.5 At Carolina

DP: This one has ‘trap game’ written all over it, but I don’t want to be watching the 4th quarter scores roll by and feel like an idiot when the Birds are up by 20. Pick: Falcons.

TJ: Carolina is scoring 12.8 points per game. That’s epically bad. Unheard of bad. Gag-inducingly bad. And since they’re giving up exactly twice that (25.6), they can’t expect to keep things close (they’re -153 on the year in point differential – the math adds up, huh?). Atlanta has proven themselves to be for real, so I see this line as too low. The Falcon’s are still only a game ahead of New Orleans, and home field advantage would be huge for them in the playoffs, so they still have a lot to play for. I’ll happily lay the 7.5 and take the dirty birds.

Tampa Bay -2 At Washington

DP: This could be a really weird week since there are A LOT of home dogs and home dogs have historically beat the spread over 50% of the time. But once again, Washington just looks like crap and Tampa is really motivated to sneak into the play-offs. Pick: Bucs.

TJ: This would have been an easy call a couple of weeks ago when Tampa still had a strong shot at the playoffs. After that heartbreaker at home against Atlanta last week, though, their dim playoff hopes have all but winked out. I’d love to see them win the next three to set up a terrific showdown in New Orleans in Week 17, and with the ‘Skins, Lions, and Seaskanks left on the schedule, it’s not out of the question. I’m not betting on it, though. The off-field drama for the ‘Skins makes them a hard team to back (see Albert Haynesworth and the McNabb/Shanahan situation, for starters), and all the recent losses (4 of the last 5, with the lone win being against a floundering Titans team) do’n help either. It’s a tough call, but I’m going with my gut: Tampa covers with a field goal.

At New Orleans -9 St. Louis

DP: Nine is way too many points for this game. The Saints are still not playing great and the Rams are fighting for their lives in the NFC West. The Saints will be turnovers to cover this kind of spread and Bradford has thrown only 2 picks in the last 7 games. Pick: Rams.

TJ: Both teams need this game, so it should actually be pretty hard fought. The Rams are right in the middle of the (admittedly ass-tastic) NFC West division race, and since they still have division foes Seattle and San Fran on the schedule, a win against New Orleans would keep them in it. New Orleans’ last three games are @Ravens, @Falcons, and Bucs at home, so they can’t afford to give one away to the Rams if they want a spot in the playoffs. I love the scrappy Rams this season, but New Orleans is rounding into shape (five wins in a row, including one against the Steelers). The Saints are certainly the better team, but they beat weak Dallas and Cincy teams by only 3 and 4 points over the last two weeks, so this line seems pretty darn big. I think I’ll take the Rams and the points, and hope for a late Bradford pass to cover.

At San Francisco -5 Seattle

DP: Wow there is just so much craptitude in this game that I decided to add up the ‘pluses and minuses’ for each. TURNS OUT THEIR WERE NO PLUSES, so I stuck with the minuses. Seattle: (1) not great on the road (2-4 with 4 blow out losses), (2) struggling at QB (Hasselbeck’s rating is 76.9), (3) Offense is 30th in rushing, (4) Defense is 30th in passing yards allowed, (5) last win that did not involve Carolina or Arizona? Week 6. San Fran: (1) Alex Smith is back (rating 75), (2) Frank Gore is out (3) last quality win? Week 10. So there you go, by a score of -5 to -3, San Fran is the less likely team to Lose! Pick: 49ers.

TJ: A clash of the NFC West Titans! I wouldn’t watch this game if it was being projected across Scarlett Johansen’s supple, naked breasts. Both teams suck, and I wish they could both lose, but since I’m forced to pick: Seattle and the points, please.


At NY Jets -5.5 Miami

DP: Interesting game to see if the Jets can bounce back from the embarrassing loss on Monday night. Miami is exactly the wrong team for them. Good on the road, disciplined, will keep the game close and hope the Jets make a mistake. Plus Miami has alternated wins and losses since week 4, they are due for a win this week. Pick: Fins.

TJ: As I said above, I thought the Jets were pretenders, and New England proved me right. However, the Dolphins are really banged up (WR Hartline and OT Carey were just ruled out), and Henne, though a Michigan alum, is no Tom Brady. Miami has been scrappy (no blowout losses since New England in week 4) and is a proven road team (5-1 on the road, 1-5 at home), so I think they’ll keep it close. The line is just about right, but I’ll still take Miami and the points.

Denver -4.5 At Arizona

DP: Another putrid match-up. Arizona sucked before and now they are starting a rookie QB named ‘John Skelton’. His new back-up is someone named ‘Richard Bartel’. I can’t remember an NFL season with so many QB’s I have never heard of. It makes me sad for Larry Fitzgerald who is a HOF talent wasting his best years on this crappy team. Denver meanwhile has fired their coach and replaced him with someone named Studesville. That’s a cool name. I think the Broncos will play a little harder and they still have Kyle Orten, The Best Mediocre QB in the NFL. Pick: Ponies.

TJ: We talked a bit in “5 Questions” this week about how Denver will react to the firing of Douchey McDaniel, and in the end, I’m thinking they’ll still stink. The question is, can they actually be as bad as Phoenix? I don’t think so, but both teams play slightly better at home, so since the game’s in Phoenix, it’s hard not to take the Cards and the points. I can’t believe I’m saying this, but I’ll take the Cards.

At San Diego -7 Kansas City

DP: I was already leaning toward the Chargers when news came out about Matt Cassel’s appendix. Poor Chiefs. They have loyal fans, but lose their QB for the biggest game of the year. Pick: Bolts.

TJ: Everyone seems to think that the Chargers will win this game, then destroy the rest of their incredibly easy schedule (San Fran, Cincy, Denver) to win the division if KC loses a game. I’m not buying it. If this team were any good, they’d have put themselves in control of their own destiny by beating Oakland last week. Now they need another loss by KC to make the playoffs even if they win out. Good teams don’t do that. I know Cassel is almost certainly out with that emergency appendectomy and KC is going to have to start Brodie Croyle, who’s 0-9 as a starter. Two things: 1) Croyle was 0-9 with a KC team that was much less talented and worse-coached than the squad he’ll have this Sunday; 2) KC has the #1 rushing offense in the league, so Croyle simply has to keep the SD defense honest with an occasional pass. I like getting seven points against a shaky Chargers team that has a lot to lose! Gimme KC.

Philadelphia -3.5 At Dallas

DP: I think this will be a great game. Dallas is playing better under Red Jesus and they can score enough to keep with with Philly. I expect a high scoring game with multiple big plays and lead changes. I might have taken the ‘Boys until I found out that Dez Bryant is out. Pick: Iggles.

TJ: Dallas is certainly playing better since Grandpa Wade went back to the Sunny Valley retirement community to feast on tapioca and saggy titties, but Philly’s offense remains explosive, and they have a lot left to play for. I think the Philly D gets after Kitna and causes a couple turnovers. Philly needs this win to stay with the Giants, and I think they get it by at least a TD. Pick: Eagles.

Baltimore -3 At Houston

DP: Baltimore is only 3-3 on the road, but Houston is only 3-3 at home. Houston’s weakness is defending the pass (32nd in the league), but the Ravens passing offense is middle of the pack (15th). Houston has good balance on offense; which they will need to move the ball on the Ravens defense. This one also has the feel of a trap game with Baltimore coming off the Steelers game and looking ahead to the Saints next week. I think they get caught a little off guard Monday. Pick: Texans.

TJ: Just like the Philly game above, this is another game where the better team is more motivated, and also playing on the road against a low line. I can’t see any reason for Houston to play well in this game, and since their offense is so dependent on Foster toting the rock, I think the Ravens’ D knows exactly what they need to do, and they’ll get it done. I’m guessing this one ends 17-10, Ravens.