DP: You are right on both fronts. Two great games will decide the fate of the AFC and you can’t do worse than last week. Just for fun, we will go against our old friend ‘George’ this week. Heads is home team and tails is road.
The picks:
@Minny -5.5 Buffalo
TJ: What a shitty game. This is like “Bizzaro Pats/Jets.” No way I take Buffalo on the road, even if Fitzpatrick has shown signs of life and they took the Steelers into OT last week. The Bills have the worst rush defense in the league, and Adrian Peterson just broke a thousand yards rushing for the fourth consecutive season (and he’s only had four tries!). Buffalo can’t rush the passer, so Favre will have plenty of time to hand it off to AP or dump it to him in the flat, and the Vikes will cover the spread easily.
DP: I understand your thinking on this one Juice. The Vikings have had a little resurgence since Leslie Frazier took over and they still play hard. But I have to disagree on a few issues. One the last time Buffalo lost by more 5 points? Week 5. And that includes some decent teams like Balt, Pitt, Chicago, and KC. I like the moxy of Fitzpatrick and I don’t Favre plays as well when there is nothing on the line. Finally, Minny is not much of a homefield advantage when the fans are out of it. Pick: Bills.
George: Bills
@Miami -4.5 Cleveland
TJ: This is a tough call for me. I like the way Cleveland’s running the ball, and the Phin’s have to feel like they’re too far behind the Pats and Jets to have a realistic shot at the playoffs. Even so, I would have liked to have seen a bigger spread here. Cleveland’s only road win all year was the flukey win in New Orleans, so it’s hard to see giving them only 4.5 in Miami. Henne looked healthy against the Raiders last week (two TD’s and a 100+ QB rating), so I’m worried he’s going to gash that porous Cleveland defense. Pick: Miami.
DP: Easy call for me. I like the Fins resilience and Delhomme is starting for the Browns. Pick: Dolphins
George: Browns.
@Tenn -3 Jacksonville
TJ: Tennessee is a circus, and even though they still have a shot at the division with their stellar run game and good defense, they have one major problem: QB. Have you seen Rusty Smith’s picture?
Look at this guy. One word: hydroencephalopathy. You could run a deep out pattern on his forehead. It looks like I Photoshopped that picture and shrunk all his features into the middle of his face, but I swear, that’s an unaltered picture. Anyway, I expect that Jags to put eight in the box and put the game in the waterhead’s tiny Carnie hands, and I’m guessing he doesn’t get it done. I’ll take the Jags and the points.
DP: Who fucking knows? Pick: Jax.
George: Jax.
@KC -8.5 Denver
TJ: I can’t count the number of times I’ve said “The Chiefs are pretenders” only to say the next week “The Chiefs are for real.” Either way, Denver’s a joke, and KC will pick up another win. Chiefs cover.
DP: I love KC, but I can’t help but remember the beating Denver put on them a few weeks ago. Really it was the last time Denver played worth a crap. 8.5 seems like too much, even for me. Pick: Broncos.
George: Denver (George really loves the road teams this week)
@NYG -7 Washington
TJ: The Giants have been on a bit of a skid lately, losing to Dallas and Philly and squeezing out a 4-point win over a Jacksonville team they should roll over. Eli looks uncomfortable, and the pass rush is inconsistent. However, they generally run the ball well (though Philly shut them down), and I expect them to make a few plays against a recently struggling David Garrard (last two games, QB ratings of 65 and 57). The Giants cover at home.
DP: I like the Juice’s logic expect they are playing Donovan McNabb and while he is not playing great, he is familiar with the Giants. For some reason I would feel better about watching the second half of this game hoping for the Skins to keep it close than for the Giants to cover. Pick: Redskins.
George: Giants
Chicago -5 @Detroit
TJ: Let me get this straight: Chicago has won four in a row and looked terrific beating down Vick and the Eagles last week, and they’re getting less than a TD going into Detroit? I’ll take the Bears?
DP: Pick: Bears.
George: Detroit.
@GB -9.5 San Fran
TJ: I still think Green Bay may be the best team in the NFC. That was a tough game in Atlanta last week, and if they want to avoid going back there in the playoffs, they’ll have to win a few more games. This week is a must. I think the Pack gets out front early against a San Fran team I still consider atrocious (beating the Cards on the road is no more impressive than beating your meat at home). GB covers.
DP: The kid is stirring so I have to hurry. I don’t like the 49ers traveling. Pick: Packers.
George:Packers
New Orleans -6.5 @Cincy
TJ: Cincy isn’t good, and the Saints have won four straight, including a quality win over Pittsburgh. It’s hard to shake the afterimages of the drubbing the Browns gave them five weeks ago, but I think they’ve proved that was a fluke (I know the Browns have!). Brees is throwing too many picks, but I think the Bengals secondary is a sure cure for that problem. The Saints should win by more than a TD.
DP: This one looks too easy, but how do I go against my Bengal hate which has taken me so far this year? Pick: Saints.
George: Cincy.
Atlanta -3 @Tampa
TJ: It’s hard to believe, but Atlanta’s only two losses are at Pitt and at Philly, so I have to give them a ton of respect. I’ve said it before: Tampa is a disciplined team that beats inferior competition, but they can’t hang with the elite teams yet. This is there big chance to prove me wrong (and stay in the division race), but I don’t see it happening. Birds cover.
DP: Falcons.
George: Falcons.
@ San Diego -13 Oakland
TJ: At first glance, this line seems really high, but over the past two games, the Raiders have scored 20 points, and San Diego has scored 71. Oakland peaked and had their three-game winning streak, but now Al Davis will have to go back to thinking about rebuilding for next year (and getting his various catheters and artificial organs cleaned and oiled). I’ll take the Bolts to cover the huge spread.
DP: Pick: Chargers
George: Chargers.
@Seattle -5.5 Carolina
TJ: This is anything but a tough call. The Panthers suck at home and blow stinky goat ass on the road. I expect Seattle to right the ship and get back on track for eight wins and the division championship. Seaskanks are the pick.
DP: Seattle is decent at home and Panthers have nothing to play for. Pick: Seaskanks.
George: Carolina.
@Indy -5.5 Dallas
TJ: I know the Doc is hating on the Colts, but this is their week to get it together. A home game against a Dallas team that’s been running on emotion for a few weeks, but watched their (incredibly slim) playoff hopes go up in smoke last week is just what Peyton needs to find his rhythm. I also think Dwight Freeney breaks Kitna’s spine by halftime. Indy is the pick.
DP: I am half-way to immortality after picking the Colts to lose 4 in a row. The Cowboys have the D-line to rush Manning and the offense to put points on the board. Pick: ‘Boys.
George: Indy.
St. Louis -3.5 @Arizona
TJ: The more I see them, the more I like the Rams to win the lowly NFC West. The Cards were horrible last week, and in spite of Derek Anderson’s rant, I don’t think they have much heart. The Rams should cover here, and stay tied for the division with the Seaskanks.
DP: As noted in this blog a few weeks ago, the Cards are TERRIBLE and have won 3 games largely on lucky bounces. Pick: Rams.
George: Cards
@Baltimore -3 Pitt
TJ: The first of our two marquee matchups. Can’t feel too good about the Steelers after needing OT to put away Buffalo and with rumors swirling about Big Ben’s bad foot. They’ve been running the ball well, but their passing attack is in the bottom third of the league, and we know how good Baltimore’s defense is at taking advantage of unbalanced offenses. Big Ben better be able to play and play well, because if Pittsburgh allows the Ravens to play eight in the box, it’s going to be a long night. Meanwhile, the Ravens have good balance, spreading the ball around to multiple receivers, and Ray Rice is running well. Flacco’s QB rating is 93 on the season, and it’s been around 100 in the three games against Pitt, Atlanta, and NE, so he plays well against good teams. Add it all up, and I like the Raven’s to win this game close, so it’s a tough call with a three point spread. I’ll take the Ravens and hope Polamalu doesn’t make too many crazy plays.
DP: Unlike The Juice and his expert analysis, I will just go with the gut. I think the Steelers have just been playing better and do better in the spotlight. Pick: Pitt
George: Ravens.
@NE -3.5 NYJ
TJ: Another great game with tons of implications. The Jets won by two touchdowns when these teams met early in the season, but a lot has changed since then. Gone is New England’s deep threat (Moss), but the emergence of the two rookie tight ends and the reacquisition of Deion Branch have provided lots of ways for Brady to spread the ball out in the short and intermediate routes. The Jets’ shutdown corners aren’t as useful against TEs and slots (like Branch and the ever-dangerous Welker), so unless Rex Ryan comes up with some really creative schemes, I expect Brady to have a good day and the Pats to put up a lot of points. However, this same Pats team has a defense that ranks 32nd in the league against the pass, and Sanchez has proven himself a quality QB. He’s let the INTs creep up over the last few weeks (six in the last five games), and the Pats have managed to reel in 15 picks as a team, so Sanchez will have to show patience and make good decisions to take advantage of the holes in the Pats D. As in the Pitt/Balt game, I feel like the line is just about perfect for this one, so it’s a tough call. I think it will come down to that revamped Pats passing game, and I think they’ll do just enough to cover the spread. Pats are the pick.
DP: Belicheck is a master schemer and I think he has had enough time to figure out the Jets. The Pats short passing game seems like the perfect counter to the Jets blitz packages. The Jets have not had a really impressive win since when? Not Cincy, Houston, Cleveland or Detroit. Not Denver in week 6 (needed a sketchy pass interference call to pull it out). Maybe Minny in week 5, but really how could do we think the Vikings were then? They blew out the Bills in week 3. That was the last really big win. Since week 3, the Pats have beaten the Dolphins, Ravens, Chargers, Steelers, and Colts. Pick: Pats.
George: Jets.
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