@Pitt -14.5 vs. Carolina
DP: A little research from ESPN shows how important Troy Polamalu is to this team "The Steelers are 14-4 with him over the past two years, allowing 14.8 points per game while producing 41 turnovers. When Polamalu's been out they're 5-7, yielding an average of 23.1 points while totaling 11 takeaways." Here are some more stats for those of you uncomfortable with the large line: Carolina is -11.9 in point differential while Pitt is +6.2. Pitt's weakness is their O-line (they are 5th worst in the league giving up 38 sacks this year, of course Carolina is worse giving up 43). So can Carolina exploit the Pitt O-line? Probably not, they are 19th in the league in sacks with 27. What about rushing then? Pitt 1710 total rush yards (8th in the NFL) and 4.2 yards/carry (16th in the NFL). Carolina's run defense? 23rd allowing 1767 yards rushing this year. So even with Polamalu out, Carolina probably cannot rush the QB or stop the running game of Pitt. On the offensive side, Jimmy Claussen is last in the league with a QB rating of 59.1. So put it all together, Pitt is coming off a loss and needs to win the last two to get the #2 seed instead of the #6 seed. Carolina won last week, is on the road in a short week with a weak QB and cannot exploit Pitt's big weakness. I will give the points reluctantly and hope the Steelers grind out a comfortable win. Pick: Steelers.
TJ: Great analysis by the Doc. If I felt better about any aspect of Carolina’s team at all, I’d take them to cover this ridiculous spread. But I don’t. I mean, this is just an atrocious team, and the fact that they beat the Cardinals last week does nothing to increase my confidence in the Panthers, it simply serves to splash cold water onto whatever spark of hope I had left for the Cardinals. I see Lebeau’s defense destroying Clausen and the meager Carolina running game, even without Polamalu creating additional disruption and making plays with his athleticism. Even with more than a two-TD spread, I have to take Pittsburgh.
Dallas -6.5 @Arizona
DP: No research for this one. I just think the Cards stink and the Cowboys are playing much better averaging 30+ points per game under Red Jesus. Plus Arizona has always had a lot of Cowboy fans, so I expect a lot of folks in Arizona will wake with NFL tickets under the tree from Santa. Should be a big pro-Cowboy crowd. Pick: Dallas.
TJ: I again agree with the Doc that the ‘Boys are the better team. If the Cards had won last week against the woeful Panthers they’d have something to play for, and might be less than a TD underdog. As it is, their season is over, their defense can’t pressure Kitna, and their QB situation remains abysmal. I think Garret picks up another win to solidify his position as the new head coach in Dallas next season. Or he would be the coach next season, if it weren’t for the impending lockout!
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