At Miami -3.5 Detroit
DP: Wow, this one is tough because we have two weird streaks going against each other. Miami is 1-6 @home (which would predict a loss), but they have also alternated wins and losses since week 4 (since they lost last week, it would predict a win). I guess I will split the difference and say Miami wins but fails to cover. Pick: Lions.
TJ: I don’t think the alternating wins and losses streak is anything but a coincidence, and it doesn’t make sense to factor it in. Miami has stunk at home, it’s true, and I like Detroit’s rookie Suh to put tons of pressure on Chad Henne. Miami has been a huge disappointment, but it’s hard to pick Detroit to put up any points on the road. I think I’ll lay the 3.5 and take the ‘Phins.
At Philadelphia -14.5 Minnesota
DP: I have to say I was quite surprised by two things: first the line of the game. Philly may have an explosive offense but they have won by 14.5+ points only twice this year. Second, why on Earth did NBC keep this as the Primetime game? I can count 5 games in which both teams are in the play-off race. Wouldn’t you love to see Jets-Bears or Giants-Packers? Anyway, I don’t think Favre plays and while that may decrease the Vikings chances of winning, it paradoxically improves their chances of beating the spread. Why? They will simplify the playbook for Joe Webb, run the ball more, and punt. All of that means fewer possessions for the Eagles and a longer field. Favre’s turnovers are what fuel the blow-out losses. I think the Vikings play it conservatively, which means low scoring and close. Pick: Vikings.
TJ: I love the Doc’s analysis, and think he’s exactly right about Favre’s effect on the Vike’s chances to cover. Also, Philly may have some trouble maintaining concentration after the wild ride they had last week. I’ll take Minny and the points.
At Jacksonville -7 Washington
DP: The Redskins have two modes: winning ugly and losing really ugly. The Jags are certainly going to be desperate as they try to catch the Colts for the division title. The Redskins meanwhile are a complete mess. I suspect Jones-Drew plays because the game means so much to the Jags, but I am not sure how much he can provide. The Jags have had a few lucky bounces (58 yard FG, Hail-Mary pass), I think luck catches up with them a little and the Redskins sneak up on them. Pick: ‘Skins
TJ: The Jags are the better team, playing at home, and have a shot at the playoffs. I know the line is a little high, but I have to take the Jags.
At St. Louis -2.5 San Francisco
DP: Well Troy Smith is back to starting for the 49ers. What does this mean? It means the 49ers have no fucking idea what they are doing. OK, let’s start adding up the negatives again. The Rams have not had a win over a good team since Week 6 (San Diego) and been blown out the last two weeks. Sam Bradford’s QB rating has dropped each of the past 3 weeks (66, 53, 41). San Fran actually has a decent run D (7th overall) which negates the one Rams strength (Steven Jackson). As for San Fran, Troy Smith is not terrible (3-2 record, QB rating of 80). Can this make up for traveling across the country to play an early game? I hope so. Pick: 49ers.
TJ: I want the 9ers to win to set up the 7-9 NFC West Champ scenario, but it’s hard to back them on the road. The Doc almost had me convinced with that anti-Rams argument, but like the Jags, they’re the better team and they have something to play for, so I’ll take the Rams to cover.
At Tampa Bay -6 Seattle
DP: This is another pairing of two declining teams. Seattle has lost 4 out of 5 by 15, 18, 19, and 16 points, ouch (the lone win was over dreadful Carolina). Their last win that wasn’t Carolina or Arizona was Week 6. Matt Hasselbeck has thrown 10 INTs in 4 games. Plus Seattle is 2-5 on the road and has to travel across the country. None of this is promising. On the other side Tampa is 8-6 and has a nice balanced attack. Unfortunately, they are a young team without much depth and have lost 5 starters on defense in the last few weeks. They have lost 3 out 4 games and have not beaten a single team with a winning record this year. Amazingly the 8-6 Bucs are in a worse position for the play-offs. If the Rams beat the 49ers in the early game, then the ‘Skanks can lose the game and still have a shot to win the NFC West by beating St. Louis in Week 17 at home. In a game like this you go back to basics and Seattle is 31st running the ball and 21st against the run (Tampa is 6th in the NFL running the ball). Pick: Bucs.
TJ: Same analysis for the third straight game: Tampa is the better team, they’re playing at home, and they still have something to play for. I’ll take the Bucs to cover.
New England -7.5 At Buffalo
DP: On first blush this looks like a slam dunk. The Pats are the hottest team in the league and are trying to wrap up the #1 seed in the AFC playing a 4-11 Buffalo team that they have beat 18 out of 19 times since 2001. Yikes. But on the other hand, Bill Belichek is famous for ‘pulling out just enough to win’ in these sorts of games. The Bills have managed to keep the games close recently (losing by 8, 7, and 1 in the last three meetings) and scored 30 points in week Week 3 against the Pats- the most points they have given up this year. The Bills have lost by more than 7 only once since their Bye in week 6. The line started at 9 and was bet down to 7.5 which means the sharps like the Bills to sneak up on the Pats. So do I. Pick: Bills.
TJ: The Doc has’t done this much overanalysis since his first psych rotation in med school. Pats are much better and will scheme Fitzpatrick to induce turnovers. They’ll win handily and cover the 7.5.
At Chicago -1 NY Jets
DP: This is a surprisingly even match-up. Both teams have strong defenses that like the pressure the QB. The Jets are actually 10th in the league in sacks (35) and the Bears are 12th (32), I would have guessed that they were both higher. Both teams have mediocre to shaky to QB/O-line play. The Bears have given up an NFL leading 48 sacks. As a team the Bears have 20 TDs and 18 INTs with a rating of 81.4. The Jets have allowed only 27 sacks with 17 TDs, 12 INTs and a rating of 75.5. On paper the game comes down to the Jets Blitz vs. the Bears O-line. The Jets actually are susceptible to TD passes off the Blitz and that is a specialty of the Cutler and the Bears. If the Mike Martz can figure out how to give Cutler time, he will knock-out the Jets with a deep counter attack. I like the Bears @home to muster up enough offense pull out the game and stay even with the Eagles. Pick: Bears.
TJ: Just as the Jet’s blitz-o-rama style defense is exactly wrong against the Pats quick pass game and poised QB play, it’s exactly right against Cutler’s pocket style. I don’t know if any QB in the history of the league is worse at throwing the ball away. I think the Jets rack up 5 sacks and 3 picks, just enough to edge out the win.
Baltimore -3.5 At Cleveland
DP: On paper this one looks bad for the Brownies. The Ravens are still fighting with the Steelers for the #2 seed (and with the Jets for the #1 WC). They have a balanced offense and are 6th against the run (which is the Browns one strength with Peyton Hillis). The Ravens weakness is their secondary which is prone to letting good passing teams get back into the game. The Browns do not have a good passing game (28th in the league). I think this one could be a little closer than people think, but the Ravens will do enough in the end to pull away. Pick: Ravens.
TJ: Bad matchup for the Browns. Their offense is one-dimensional, and the Ravens will key on Hillis. The Browns D doesn’t match up well either, and I see them giving up some big plays as well. Ravens cover.
At Kansas City -5 Tennessee
DP: Amazing stat of the week: Both the 6-8 Titans and the 9-5 Chiefs score 23.0 points a game and allow 20.1 points a game. Both teams like to run the ball, so let’s start there. The Titans are 12 in the league running the ball and the Chiefs are 13th stopping the running. The Chiefs are 1st in the NFL rushing and the Titans are 17th stopping the run. As for passing, KC has the more productive QB (Cassel) and the more dangerous receiver (Bowe). KC is 6-0 @home and fighting to fend off the Chargers. Seems like a perfect game to run early to set up the deep pass. Pick: Chiefs.
TJ: Chiefs: better team, at home, something to play for. Sound familiar? They’ll cover.
Indianapolis -3 At Oakland
DP: So I have been down on the Colts all season and out of fairness, I have been mostly right. But you, dear reader, want more than the paranoid ravings of a Colt fan. So here are the stats. The Colts are 1-3 on the road as a favorite. The Raiders are 2-1 as home ‘dogs. The Colts have the worst rushing offense in the league and are 28th against the run. The Raiders meanwhile are second in the league running the ball. The Colts are first in league passing, but the Raiders are 5th against the pass, Austin Collie is gone and Nnamdi Asomugha looks like he is good start against Reggie Wayne. Pick: Raiders.
TJ: The Raiders are done in the playoff race, and the Colts will be desperate to stay with the Jags. Peyton will write another chapter in his hall-of-fame autobiography by winning these last two games to improbably make the playoffs. Colts cover.
Houston -2.5 At Denver
DP: Oh who the hell knows? I will take the home dogs. Pick: Broncos.
TJ: Crap game. I hate Denver worse. Houston covers.
At Green Bay -3 NY Giants
DP: I will forgo research on this one as well. I just like the way Green Bay is still fighting for their lives at this point of this of the season. The Giants seem to have peaked too early and are fading. I think the return of Aaron Rodgers inspires the Packers and they go on to easily cover at home. Pick: Packers.
TJ: I love the Packers defense to create some confusion for the Giants. Rodgers is back and plays well to set up the playoff run. Pack cover easily.
San Diego -7.5 At Cincinnati
DP: Cincy seems to have packed it in for the year. They are sitting Ochocinco and Terrell Owens to look at the young receivers and Carson Palmer looks like a shell of himself. San Diego still has things to play for and I think that makes a big difference. Pick: Chargers.
TJ: I thought Cincy was done last week, then they go and embarrass my Brownies. And no one likes to travel across the country to play in bad weather when they’re scrapping for a playoff spot. Even so, I can’t see a way for the Bungles to slow down that Phillip Rivers offense. Chargers are the pick.
At Atlanta -2.5 New Orleans
DP: MNF must be thrilled to get this game even if the Saints loss to New Orleans took some of the steam away from it last week. At any rate, I like the Saints for some reason. I think the Falcons have gotten a little lucky and that seems to even out over the season. The Falcons will still get the #1 seed in the NFC, but I think the Saints want to give them a little something to think about. Pick: Saints.
TJ: Great game. Atlanta will still be motivated since they’re playing for the all-important home-field advantage. The Saints are coming together, but they’re playing the best team in the conference on the road. If the season has tought us one thing, it’s that you don’t bet against Atlanta at home. Dirty Birds cover.
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